Horse Antepost
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Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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The idea of So Mi Dar running in the Derby is a fantasy. Less chance than Minding running and with even less chance of winning. At least in the Oaks the horse has a decent chance of placing and possibly winning.
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For what it is worth, after the Firnas performance last evening, I have had a highly speculative punt. Trainer states he will probably go direct to Ascot, but I wouldn't be surprised if they had a change of heart because he is actually entered in the Derby. The way he slammed horses that finished in front of Wings of Desire (although that one has undoubtedly has come on a long way) it wouldn't be the most leftfield change of plan to have ever of happened.
Here's hoping anyway, worth a fiver (but then again, I thought the same could be said for MVG beating The Power 7-0 last night!) |
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Apology to those adverse to my take on the fillies' slim cance of participation in The Derby.
The Headmaster, It does seem unlikely now given the win of Wings Of Desire (WOD) nonetheless I cannot get over the comment of Gosden immediately post So Mi Dar's (SMD) emphatic win in the Musidora ie Minding is head and shoulders above the colts and SMD is the only filly who can give Minding a proper race but that was before WOD's Dante win. I take Gosden's comment to mean the Derby is an easier race to win but whether Gosden still holds that opinion post WOD's win I'm none the wiser. On the other hand if I was the owner of SMD - the Webbers are not Coolmore hence nothing to lose but lots to gain - I'd run her in the Derby as I firmly believe she's a better horse than any of the colts bar WOD - not a fully known entity but very inexperienced - and can beat them all; SMD can meet Minding in one of the big races post the Derby. I believe Gosden's comment about Linguistic was prior to SMD and WOD wins. |
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frx_mdJSsd8
Is this one of the antepost posters? What he knows about pedigree you could fit in a matchbox and still have room for the matches. |
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Guys, SMD and Minding won't be running in any Epsom Derby guys.. don't waste your effort thinking or writting about it end of.
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why in on earth has the gurkha been backed for the french derby? AOB has made it clear the french derby is the clear target this season.
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For reasons stated above
 He also stated Ballydoyle would go to French Guineas You stated dont believe what trainers say |
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sorry made a mistake geoff, should of read derby not french derby. too much to drink at lunch!
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A comment on Wings of Desire. There was nothing in his previous form which even hinted at his run yesterday although the market indicated that such an improved performance was expected. Proof indeed that horses can make fools of us all.
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A comment on Wings of Desire. There was nothing in his previous form which even hinted at his run yesterday although the market indicated that such an improved performance was expected. Proof indeed that horses can make fools of us all.
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horses are not machines, so i was not really surprised yesterday, esp with the field being so poor, though I did expect midday to win. Horses are living organic beings capable of improvement or decline within weeks, so when guys say this horse is 10lbs ahead of this or that, and will win by a mile. it does make me laugh as the trainer could of left the horse in its stable room doing nothing for 2 weeks, or fed it the wrong things,, etc...etc... you get the point ...there are so many variables. Improvement / decline in speed is always possible. However one thing a horse cannot improve is its balance, and I am certain WOD will not handle the Epsom undulations.
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Tripe v
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thanks for that educated response Madhu.
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i was not really surprised yesterday,
Prior to yesterday WOD had an OR of 88 a PSB RPR of 87 and a TS of 67. I would guess that he will be rated of 115+ on Dante form. If you weren't really surprised, can you let me know what you put in your coffee please  |
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sandownm honestly wasn't surprised. there was a reason the top jock got off foundation for a relative unknown. just ask eric
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Tripe v
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According to Gosden "they" ie Gosden and Dettori had a very good idea the potential of Foundation and his optimum trip but not WOD - only the last few weeks WOD showed good progress - ie Dettori was on a fact finding mission.
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Every day you get one or two improvers like that. I don't see why ppl see it as a surprise. with massive improvers , you also get amssive un-improvers..lol....and it's a ll relative. Vona (2:55) today at 33-1 improved even more than WOD yesterday, so what do you say to that?
Every day big outsiders win and short priced favs lose. I agree with that. The only problem is you have to find them BEFORE the race |
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impossible, according to gosden after the race WOD was 'freakish', etc ....they must of known WOD was slightly ahead. Frankie's horse switch was decisive.
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Tripe v
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In a really open derby Ulysses is interesting. Likely to be rated the same as WOD before the Dante so lets not say he can't make the necessary progress. They will probably keep him for RA but who knows. Wonder if there have ever been horses balloted out the derby before?
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When is this nrnb please?
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Paddy Power now
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they early with that this year its not normally til after the next declaration stage
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Market suspended anyone know why?
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A Betfair ante-post suspend bot (from the #suspenderbots crew) has popped up Geoff. Betfair launched this new initiative about two years ago as an addition to removing horses that haven't been scratched and refusing to add horses to markets until they get stuffed in their trials. Normally lasts about an hour until the bot releases its grip and the market is re-opened with no changes to the market whatsoever.
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Spot on Headmaster .Normal service resumed.
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they ave taken 3 out of the market
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Ulysses is 18/1 here - what kind of people would back Ulysses, a horse that finished 2nd to a handicapper (Imperial Aviator) who won today receiving lumps of weight into this price? Anyone backing Ulysses could only be thinking about Wings Of desire who won the Dante but a handicap race at Newbury is not the York Dante - this is absolute bonker betting, in my opinion, and these people need certification or are too flushed with money. Nothing but sheer madness!!!!!!!
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See my Imperial Aviator post in horse racing. Not a chance in hell would i wd back ulysses too.
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omfg ppl are back imperial aviator and ulysses. this is bonkers!
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backing
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its a sea of blue on oddschecker as somebody tipped it on a tipping line!
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Sheer madness and irresponsible tipping, if so, ulterior motive springs to mind; Ulysses is not Jack Hobbs either who beat Stravagante (rated 85/100) by 12l, and went on to finish 2nd to Golden Horn in the Dante, and the Epsom Derby.
Port Douglas seems to be friendless today despite looking rather healthy yesterday - a case of fickled minded "people" shifty their money around I'd imagine. |
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Greed - it's quite hard to keep up with your many posts, sorry about that old chap. For the hard of thinking, could you succinctly outline who you've backed for the Derby, or at least give an idea on who you are red/green about right now? Thanks.
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headmaster, Port Douglas, Moonlight Magic, Harzand (which will prob not go to epsom). Decent balanced horses Midterm and USAR dissapointed last time but will prob back at bigger odds in running next month. On the last, running Midterm has not got a chance and may not be entered but it is well balanced which will suit it @ epsom, so could easily improve 10-20lbs on that poor running but I would need at least 33-1 to make it worthwhile. USAR has to be taken very seriously and is an unknown quantity but has the balance /pedigree..etc...etc... Wings of Desire won't handle the undulations, so is defo worth a huge place lay on the day. That's my tactic anyway.
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These are mine against the field ie UAR, PD, Cloth Of Stars, Moonlight Magic and any one of the two fillies (if).
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Apologies Greed, I am exceptionally thick...
So Port Douglas, Moonlight Magic, Harzand are green yes? Midterm, UAR, WOD and everything else red, yes? |