Horse Antepost
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Epsom DERBY 2016
Epsom DERBY 2016
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To be fair to the oddsmakers I don't think the price is all about their greed...it's just as reflective of the fact this Derby market is aching for a horse to grab it by the scruff of the neck.
Personally I love it. Price crashes, murky pictures, leftfield formlines...all suits my book as a rule. When champions come along and roar their way through the season I generally do my conkers. |
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greed and ppl getting over excited. they have not considered the horse's potential for scope and improvement/immaturity/ balance rather than just the 'win' and 'winning distance'. You may not like my method and I am not for antepost usually but i have now a v healthy book in this derby.
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Greed, you refer to your method or my method but I don't believe we've ever really touched on them. You definitely don't know what mine is and I'm unclear on yours. Happy to discuss....
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my method is v simple. the basic one is not to back anything under 2.0!
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pinocchio like in its simplicity
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Charlton random have a go at genuine posters week. Now blocked.
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I'd rather give Midterm another chance, in case he had an off day in the Dante which I doubt very much, than back The Gurkha who I think is a very unlikely runner let alone a probable Epsom Derby winner.
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Impossible123 blocked
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Gurkha will run in the Derby. It's the most important race for the owners.
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5/1 nrnb is a gift.
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I'm not sure The Gurkha will run tbh. He reminds me a little of Magician for whatever reason. Obvs NRNB that isn't a problem.
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I think if The Gurkha was Derby bound he'd have run the the Dante and not the French 2000G after the non-too-convincing run of UAR in the Chester Vase.
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Not the typical prep for sure, impossible.
Ballydoyle French 2000 to Derby horses down the years, folks...?? |
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These would be my 4 Epsom bound probable runners from the O'Brien's stable eg UAR, PD, Idaho, Shogun with Deauville as a sub.
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I'd say Deauville definitely runs. Different ownership and Jim and his lass like to be seen on the big days (plus the horse has a chance anyway)
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Oversight on the ownership of Deauville, the sub would be between Idaho and Shogun I think, ground dependent.
If I knew the "confirmed" plans of the fillies I'd lay the likes of WOD, Ulysses, The Gurkha, Harzand and Galileo Gold. |
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I remember Black Minnaloushe running in the French Guineas and then winning the Irish Guineas. The Gurkha is entered, a better chance than Air Force Blue perhaps.
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i remember that Black Minnaloushe beast . won me 1k for the st james palace.
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2007: 8 runners, a mix of pacemakers, soft ground horses, non-stayers, and outclassed horses. Authorized was the hot favourite.
2007: Eagle Mountain (2nd 6/1); Soldier Of Fortune (5th 14/1); Yellowstone (8th 28/1); Acapulco (9th 66/1); Admiralofthefleet (10th 14/1): Mahler (11th 20/1); Anton Chekhov (12th 50/1); Archipenko (17th 13/2) Eagle Mountain: 2x6f; 2x7f; 3x8f Soldier Of Fortune: 2x8f; 1x10f; 1x10.5f best on soft Yellowstone: 1x7f 4x8f; 1x10f Acapulco: 2x10f, a pacemaker in the Derby Admiralofthefleet: 3x7f; 2x8f; 1x10.5f unlikely to stay, and he didn’t Mahler: 2x10f, 1x12f. Hadn’t the pace to feature. Anton Chekhov: 1x8f; 1x9f; 1x10f; 1x10.5f. Probably needed soft. Archipenko: 3x7f; 1x10f. Won a slow 10f before Epsom. Didn’t stay 12f. Error: Eagle Mountain (distance); Soldier Of Fortune (ground); Acapulco (pacemaker); Admiralofthefleet (distance); Mahler (outclassed); Anton Chekhov (ground); Archipenko (distance) should not have run |
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thx v useful as they were all outsiders, if he had the fav i am sure that field would have been halved
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my guess is that usar, deauville, idaho and two pacemakers will run. i backed Port Douglas but i am v unsure now
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best to wait until after the Irish guineas. For Coolmore it is all about Air Force Blue and their desperation to have a superstar son of War Front after investing so heavily in that stallion's progeny. If he runs well in Ireland they will want him in the St James Palace and they can target Epsom with the Ghurk. If AFB flops then probably best to retire him and aim The Gurkha at the mile events.
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The impressive Hocquart winner Mekhtaal may get supplemented. Owned by the Qataris.
Sea the Stars out of a Silver Hawk mare. The dam was a group 3 winner over 10.5 furlongs. Mekhtaal won by 6 lengths today. |
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Mekhtaal has been given an RPR of 114 which is higher than Cloth of Stars. Today was only his third ever run and he only made his debut a couple of my months ago.
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Only two of O'Brien's Derby possibles have done the distance ie UAR and Port Douglas; Shogun and Idaho both finished well in their latest race. These would be my four near certainties, with Deauville (different ownership).
O'Brien can call upon at least five jockeys eg Moore, Heffernan, O'Donaghue, Donnacha and Anna O'Brien hence a possible five this year I reckon. If The Gurkha (TG) was to run then Moore would have to choose between UAR and TG and that I'd think is wholly unlikely and unnecessary when TG is the most suitable of all O'Brien's for the French Derby. |
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sadblokes r 3/1 the gurkha for the derby wat a joke price and they have pushed nothing out in price
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You'll get the reply here http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2070/
He seriously hammered that field. Another twist in the tale... |
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3-1 is without a run. thats is ridiculous as it is a cert not to run
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A_T ....you're either stalking me or don't bother to read the thread before you post. Anyway, we agree.
You gonna get this horse added, Beryl? Keen to back but have a miserable recent record of getting horses added to BF a/p markets.... |
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Just requested!
In terms of physique, would you describe Mekhtaal as heavy topped? |
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Sorry Headmaster just seen your post!
Incidentally when was the last time Coolmore had top 3yo that wasn't from the Northern Dancer line. Maybe Hawkwing? |
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Good work!!
I'm very happy with my book right now tbh mate...just don't wish to be undone by a late interloper. Anything with Silver Hawk close up normally needs every yard of 12f and with STS on the other side it was 'pleasing' to see him 'quicken' the way he did today. Gawd knows to be honest though....I've been waiting (and paying) for the Hocquart to throw up a good one for nearly 20 years now. It was run over a furlong less than normal today so maybe that's the key?! Not holding my breath... |
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(that was to Beryl)
A_T, I'm assuming we know a little bit about the game. So don't mention anything to do with Woodman again!  Yuk.Very good Q re Northern Dancer though...are there any?! I'm guessing you might have to go something Germanic as they seem to be the only nation capable of any self-control regarding their breeding or race programme.... |
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u s ranger just bin matched at 9
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Steptoe is going to supplement Hercules
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eric_morris 15 May 16 17:09 Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 4,200 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog Impossible123 blocked Rate reply: | report block user impossible123 impossible123 15 May 16 16:52 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 1,063 | Blogger: impossible123's blog I'd rather give Midterm another chance, in case he had an off day in the Dante which I doubt very much, than back The Gurkha who I think is a very unlikely runner let alone a probable Epsom Derby winner.  doesn't much to tick eric off |
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Sam Walker - who is he? He's very keen on The Gurkha (TG) running in the Derby despite the pace he showed in the French 2000G, and beating non-entities in the process.
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He's the Post's Worldwide Ratings Expert. Not sure he should be straying into pedigree anlaysis though. Sam says:
There's also the fact that a mile is unlikely to prove his optimum trip long term - just have a look at his pedigree which is absolutely chock full of stamina. He is by Derby winner Galileo and, while his dam won over 7f at two, the rest of her family is made up almost entirely of middle-distance performers, including classy ones like Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Solemia. Judged on pedigree alone it's a wonder he managed to win a Group 1 over a mile, but he has and his trainer has a very strong record of stepping horses up from that distance to win the Epsom classic But fails to say his chock-full of stamina pedigree has been built on matings with Poliglote (10.6f), Saddlers Wells (11.4f) and Halling (10.8f). The Gurkha is Danehill Dancer (8.4f), the dam was never asked to go beyond 9f and her son didn't half show some boot on Sunday. I don't think he should be so sure that Le Gurks will not only stay 12f but quite probably improve for it.... |
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This is bookmaker heaven
"Look at this shiny new horse. He is 3/1" Repeat ten times in the weeks before the Derby |