Agree with you Souldancer. One of my criteria is price. And my 'winner last time out '  rule can, at times, include horses that have won ' previous time out', I.e within last two races.. Weight to be carried is key, not the actual weight, more in relation to its position in the overall weights of the race. I will back more than one horse in a race , if they both ' qualify '

They all run.

sorry - Turn over sivola also missed cut (i need to learn to count!)

Reserves are T over Siv & Little Jon

Irish Cavalier gave him 4lb's and Ryan Hatch took off another 5lb, so it was actually 9lb in total. Admittedly Hatch will probably ride again though if he does make it.

Its a decent pull still, but I had a good bet on Little Jon that day and I just dont think he got the trip, so thats my question mark with him.... cant see him getting up the hill.

Using the form of that race, Generous Ransom looks the standout horse to me.... And he was definitely staying on.

Shortlist is.

Irish Cavalier, Generous Ransom, Buywise, Little Jon, Splash of Ginge & Present View (as first time blinkers)

Irish Cavalier - Has gone up for that win lto so is high in handicap as they hadn't really aimed him at this race. That's a negative, but he's young and clearly very progressive. His run in the G1 at Punchestown where only a few lengths beind Valseur Lido and Apache Stronghold both quality Grade 1 chasers imv who will be 160+ very quickly this season. Maybe he'll do an Al Ferof and be Grade 1 class in a handicap.

Generous Ransom - My kind of one for this. Good course form with a win and a close 3rd in the spring. He hung left after the last and had to straighten at the festival which cost him 2nd place imv. Forgiven his run at Sandown as it was his 7th of the season. Prep over hurdles and he is 15lbs better off with Irish Cavalier from that 3l defeat.

Buywise - His jumping is what costs him, yet he's still staying on in his races and always seems to make the frame. Only 3lbs higher than for his two 3l defeats at the track in the Paddy Power and Festival Plate. Certainly one for e/w with the 5 places.

Little Jon - Another who's jumping cost him at a critical time in in the Nov h/c at Cheltenham. He's unlikely to run as he's 2nd reserve. So one for the Dec H/c instead.

Splash of Ginge - Only 4lbs higher for his win in Jan and I am sure he was in with a shout when he fell in the Dec h/c last season. I had backed him both times and feel he'll make the frame again here. I think he'll be suted by a bit more cut and a bit further this season but certainly one to follow in the big handicaps if his price is right until he bags one.

Present View - after a decent prep at Chepstow he was never involved at Ascot lto. I think due to the drift tht day and the fact he was held up I don't think he was intended to win that day. His 2 runs at Cheltenham last year were excellent when he won at the Festival and came a good 3rd when he was caught late on first by Johns Spirit and then Caid Du Berlais. He wears first time blinkers and he'll return to his prominent or front running tactics.

Actually Harry,i'm only pointing this out.Its all in the form book anyway.A race where 5 frontrunners go off at a fast pace,and the finish is fought out by horses coming from the rear merely tells you that the first 3 were suited to a fast pace.A race where the winner was given a soft lead and quickened from the front means the winner is probably average.
The winners i pointed out did it the hard way.What happens when they go off fast and those up front fall away except one horse,and when challenged repels all late closers?.well obviously you've found a very good horse.Likewise a  horse has a soft lead in a race on a level track,where they are all pulling behind,he quickens late on and increases its lead, AND only ONE horse comes from the rear and goes past it.The winner is obviously very smart and would probably do even better in a big field with a hill finish.
A mate pointed out to me an article by Nick Mordin putting this all up AS A SYSTEM!!.I couldn't believe it,I thought it was what all punters used as BASIC FORM.
Perhaps you all do all this anyway?,know what i mean Harry?.

apologies pipedreamer - i read it that you we're just having a good aftertime about other races you had read correctly

this race really is a brutal race to sort out...kings palace at 7-1 makes not a lot of appeal unless the ground goes soft with pace angles a plenty, buywise keeps creeping up the weights for plodding on past weakening horses, cocktails at dawn appeals but has shown zero at cheltenham a shame as i like him...monetaire has a chance but 10-1 really...i'll have to come back to it but do agree with ashleigh in regards 10-1 the field

Yep IrisDeBalme - I think he should be 16/1 or maybe 14/1. This 25/1 is huge. I decided against e/w as he could easily dog is as he hasn't shown form in his 2 runs this season. But if he runs well it'll be up front or up with the pace and can lay in running if I want insurance. I think the Blinkers could get him to keep going at a key part in the race, kick on from top of the hill. He defo stays further imv.


Mega keen on both Minella Present and Return Spring tomorrow, defo ones to back. Wrote reasons on my site and put them in the NH race thread.

http://jumpsadviser.com/cheltenham-open-fri/

Hey CVByrne looked at your site great stuff... good to know academics are on here!

Bit of a boost for Generous Ransom' form in the first there.... As is the weather forecast.

In brief, this is a poor renewal of the race.....splash of ginge and Oscar rock best two guesses for me.

*not

poor renewal of the race????

A ridiculous statement on what basis is this a poor renewal ? A real competitive race with the likes of Kings Palace, Johns Spirit, Sound Investment, Anacotty, Present View etc all have the potential to be a serious challenge at Cheltenham in March...

Darna to place and a small win bet. 25-1

He'll need a top ride imo, CVB - I was at Newton when he almost stopped on the run in - admittedly just idling - but if he does that up the old hill he'll be swallowed up. At least the horse has the right man on board to deliver him at the perfect moment. Of the two, I prefer Boondooma who could (as you say) just be better than these. If I was punting these, I would back Boondooma in the win pool because he might shoot in but, on the other hand, he might not stay or could pull too hard and not settle. I would go e/w on Irish Cav in case he idles in front or Townend's timing is slightly out.

Looks a really competitive race maybe without a star hiding amongst them, which makes it hard to pick the winner. I have already backed Johns Spirit ew antepost as i think he will give me a good run for my money.

Cant decide who will carry my money tomorrow. shorlist of  Irish Cavalier/Boondooma/Cocktails At Dawn.

Not really, Exotic Dancer finished 8th ish in a world hurdle aged 5. But i do agree the horse appeals as you always look for a horse that can improve 10lbs and you would not question it.

Thanks PJay for the snippet... yeah cards close to his chest there...

Hi Ibrahima - its more a case of his prep - Exotic dancer's last 3 runs were 4 or under runners.. very similar to Art Mauresque at the time, wasn't sure Exotic Dancer had the right prep for a race like the Paddy Power and he did surprise me ... I think the same with Art Mauresque... so it rings a chord with me... in terms of comparisons...

Having said that... I just realised Pricewise has tipped him so I actually wont bother with the horse now as that's just added 11 lb on his back

same here ccm brillant race in progress with class horses, but think the weather may play its part if forecasts are correct
would definitely be a kings palace backer but the weight in heavy ground puts me off,still think present view fits all the criteria given heavy ground and will go with him

class horses??
It's competitive as it should be,but classy? Not for me.