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*** PADDY POWER GOLD CUP, CHELTENHAM NOV 2015 ***
*** PADDY POWER GOLD CUP, CHELTENHAM NOV 2015 ***
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Pipe's blog today states Tom Scu will school Kings Palace later this week and they'll: 'see how that goes before deciding on his participation for Saturday's big race.'No mention of his other entries.
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Still happy with Irsh Cavalier and Oscar Rock but I could see Splash of Ginge in the money as well.
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KB horses in good nick atm, will the festival 2 n half mile handicap hold the key to this race ?, Darna, Mometaire n Buywise all closely matched om that form.
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Thats what i had started to think last night bonnie when i wrote my post
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i thought buywise ran a great prep for this at Aintree, never put in the race and kept on nicely, if only his jumpimg was a bit more fluent !!!!
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Have taken a little e/w on Art Mauresmo. Not at all blown way by this field and maybe open to a young and progressive one. Obvious concerns re experience and not raced in big fields but the fact it is likely to be a tear up in front will give a chance to take his time.
Can see the attraction of Little Jon but will sacrifice a bit of price with security of a run |
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Not quite sure where Mauresmo came from, Art Mauresque obviously
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No need to sacrifice price on Little Jon imo as he will be balloted out if not getting in so stakes returned on antepost bets anyways.
As long as he gets declared as an intended starter and doesn't then make the field and then get pulled out that is  lol |
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Sea the stars, whats the limit on this race. ta
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Field of max 20 luckyme.
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STS - not if he chooses to run him Friday, may not declare him. Understand the balloting out bit of course but at this stage, I'd want to be as sure as I can of a runner
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Thanks, catch me
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will stick with horses that have done well in this race previous that being Present view and John's spirit think the 20\1 and 5 places being offered by PP on present view is good value they'll do for me best of luck to all
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It's been all go today hasn't it boys & girls ? I see DEP reports KP schooled well under TS today. Mmmm ...
So a likely runner then with TS already declared as Jockey you'd probably say ? We shall see ... |
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Pipe poised to give Kings Palace go-ahead to run in Paddy Power
• Trainer pleased with horse’s Tuesday schooling session • Scudamore waiting to get all-clear to ride race favourite Kings Palace pictured winning at Cheltenham under Tom Scudamore. Kings Palace pictured winning at Cheltenham under Tom Scudamore. Photograph: John Grossick/racingfotos.com/Rex Chris Cook @claimsfive Tuesday 10 November 2015 18.27 GMT Last modified on Tuesday 10 November 2015 18.47 GMT Share on Pinterest Share on LinkedIn Share on Google+ Shares 28 Save for later David Pipe is inching towards running Kings Palace in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday but stopped short of giving a final decision after the horse was schooled on Tuesday morning. “He’ll have a last-minute routine test but after this morning’s schooling session, I’m more inclined than we were to go for the Paddy Power,” Pipe said in quotes issued by the race sponsor. Cheltenham hoping to attract record crowd at Open meeting this weekend Read more The question of who may ride Kings Palace is expected to be decided on Wednesday when Tom Scudamore is examined by a specialist to determine the extent of his recovery from a knee injury. The jockey damaged ligaments in a fall last month. Pipe sounds upbeat about the chance of his stable jockey recovering in time for the three-day meeting at Cheltenham this weekend. “He [rode] loads of schooling this morning and we put him through lots and he came out the other side OK,” the trainer said. Kings Palace is 8-1 joint-favourite for Saturday’s race but his chance was called into question by Ruby Walsh, speaking through his blog on Paddy Power’s website. “I’ve always felt that the race suits two-mile speedsters who stay the extra half-mile, rather than the out-and-out stayers who are dropping back in trip,” Walsh said. “Kings Palace will be travelling pretty much as fast as he can over the first three fences. He’s going to have to jump aggressively and meet them all spot-on. If not, he’ll be out of position early and will have to fight hard just to stay in contention.” It is a moot point for Walsh, who expects to be riding at Punchestown this weekend. His most significant mount will be Faugheen, the reigning champion hurdler, on offer at no bigger than 1-7 to make a winning return to action in the Morgiana on Sunday. “He’s the highest-rated hurdler in training, is in great form and worked well at Willie Mullins’s yard this morning,” Walsh said. “Most of the opposition may come from his stablemates but even the likes of Nichols Canyon and Wicklow Brave have to improve by more than a stone to beat him.” |
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Ruby's comments are 'funny' but - very obviously - respected. 'Trends' are always for horses who can stay in the PP .. hence I'm bemused as to why Ruby says this but as for jumping at speed he's right, this race is a true a test as one would ever find.
KP best at this distance so say the yard. Just short of top class at 3m .. so they said. We'll see ... |
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Very interesting comments indeed from Ruby. As you say harchi, got to be respected, but the history out of the race doesn't bear that out at all. You'd always want a strong stayer imo and how many 2 mile speedsters stay this trip? Seems a bit of a contradiction in terms.
I honestly think the race is ideal for KP. If he's not good enough, then fair enough, but course and trip should be perfect for him. |
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Can't really understand why Pipe is being so tentative with his comments about the horse. Not a lot of positivity is there? Maybe just trying to lower expectations?
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I'd agree with you - not much hope for KP if he can't win or at the least show in this one ...
Pipe - yes. You see my earlier point on 'expectations management'. I think they were 'burnt' (for want of a better term) about Grands Crus and their experience with that horse, the pressure and expectation on them all and everything. So why not drop it down a notch ? Makes sense to me and from their perspective. Probably quietly confident is the best way to play it ... He knows this, he wasn't exactly upbeat about Great Endeavour's chances but that fellow was trained to the minute, 2nd time around, for this race. Interesting ... |
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Maybe so Timmy. But sure I've heard him being bullish about horses, particularly for this meeting, in previous years.
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I've got a share in Sound Investment and in Paul Nicholls' latest update yesterday, the plan is still very much to go for the Paddy Power.
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Nice one chief, he's won a few nice pots for you!
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Kings Palace saga highlights the pitfalls of ante-post betting to me.
If you're already on at 12/1, well done obviously but you would n't back him now at best price 8/1 whilst there is still a doubt about his participation - albeit a diminishing doubt - especially given the possibility that others in the media latch on to Walsh's comments plus the competitive nature of the Saturday morning markets. I'd say there's every chance that if you wait until Saturday morning you'll be able to back him as a guaranteed runner at a price bigger than 8/1. |
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not sure I'd agree with Walsh's thoughts either in that KP has always been a prominent racer - his two festival defeats are arguably at least partly attributable to going too fierce a gallop early so a step down in trip might suit.
But Ruby knows a lot more about horses than I do. |
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I'd see this about the same as you do ReaseHeath .. yeah defo. But thing is, who are we to argue with Ruby, exactly ...
Best thing about this game though - opinions ... and paying for them/backing them up (!!!) |
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I've said it earlier on this thread with front runners like Cocktails At Dawn, Boondooma & Kings Palace in the line up, it's doubtful any of them will get an easy lead and as such this is likely to be a very fast run race.
I'd prefer to look for a something coming from off the pace. My preference is still Buywise and especially so if it's testing with good course form in big Cheltenham handicaps, albeit he hasn't won one. Looking forward to this race a lot. |
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ReaseHeath 10 Nov 15 21:04 Joined: 15 May 04 | Topic/replies: 11,817 | Blogger: ReaseHeath's blog
Kings Palace saga highlights the pitfalls of ante-post betting to me. If you're already on at 12/1, well done obviously but you would n't back him now at best price 8/1 whilst there is still a doubt about his participation - albeit a diminishing doubt - especially given the possibility that others in the media latch on to Walsh's comments plus the competitive nature of the Saturday morning markets. I'd say there's every chance that if you wait until Saturday morning you'll be able to back him as a guaranteed runner at a price bigger than 8/1. Looking at the way the market is forming i cannot see KP being offered at bigger than 8s Saturday morning. If declared he will be 13/2 area Friday morning and possibly offered at 8s as a 'push/rick in pw tables of rp' which will be for a 10-15 minute period to a max bet of around £25-50! This is if Boondooma is declared, which i am being pretty sceptical about. As a person who checks the antepost markets on here religiously, hes being laid mighty often at 11s - 13s this last couple days of which if you were a supporter i'd be pretty worried  |
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^ I do hope you're wrong about Boondooma
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Looks as if there's going to be a lot of pace on in this race?.We'll see how Kings Palace,a horse described in the formbook as "impressive" in a 4 horse race,[ok 7 runner race as well], gets on in a 20 runner race.I remember one well respected commentator saying after a 3 runner classic trial at Goodwood,where one horse ran wide too into the straight and pulled up,making it a 2 runner race,that the winner was "impressive"!!!!???!!.How can anybody possibly tell from that?!!!
Kings Palace will also have to deal with Boondooma taking him on up front,plus others who like to be up there.Boondooma was jaw-droppingly impressive lto,but has more weight softer ground, and 4 furlongs more to contend with. What chance Splash Of Ginge?,will he [or can he] go with them early on?.I know that at the Festival these days,the winner seems to be up with the pace in many races, i reckon that depending on the final line-up, the race may suit a late closer. |
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Jaw droppingly impressive last time out? I'd say you are more easily pleased than me then!
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I think Buywise will storm up the hill and beat them all could touch a massive price in running
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I expecting Boondooma to struggle if he lines up. The drift on him could be one of two things, hes getting to the price he should be (though imo he should be double that) or he's to get pulled, not much wanted to back him in recent days. His win lto was a good win, but hes been hiked up by the handicapper and like ive already eluded to in a previous post, before i see him race on Saturday and be proved wrong i am of the opinion hes at about the level of ability that Double Ross has, a 145-150 rated racehorse over fences that could just find these a little too hot to handle
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I misread your earlier post STS about Little Jon thinking he was entered on Friday. Now I've chosen to pay attention had a little e/w on him
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My visual readings of races used to be very good.Pipedreamer, [Henry Candy's],Buzzards Bay,Kings Curate,Arcalis,Red Ark,Red Marauder,Abu Kadra,and Donna Viola in a 3k handicap at Yarmouth [won Santa anitas yellow ribbon]are just a few of my early perceptions that turned out ok.
Boondooma won in a style similar to one of my other horses that i raved about,namely Cool Dawn winning at Ascot prior to winning the Gold Cup. As always i talked myself out of it,oh yes i had a lot of help from punters as well [to put me off that is].I'll agree that he's gone up and it may not be his turn again on Sat. Unlike years ago, the handicapper is very harsh on any winner.that's why its hard to follow up these Days.Winners of these races these days seem to be unexposed with little form, then find it next to impossible to win another race of this type.In 45 years of punting i have never known a time when decent priced winners were so hard to find. It's just that it's i think it's hard to weigh up King's Palace going from winning small fields from the front, to being probably taken on up front in a much bigger field.and with a hill to contend with at the end. |
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I note your comment regarding last time out winners. Given certain other key indicators,I base the majority of my higher stake bets on last time out winners, when running in C1 or C2 handicaps mainly at Grade I tracks.
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Yes Facts,its ok to back lto winners,but as you probably know,you have to be extremely particular about which one you follow.Robert Charlton when being interviewed on telly the other year, explained how difficult it was to win 2 big prize handicaps let alone 3 with the same horse.
As we know Litigant achieved a double on Saturday.I suppose it matters a lot as to who exactly is training them.It was painful for me in the National this year.I thought Many Clouds at Cheltenham in December put up an amazing performance,where he had no tow into the race and had to make a lot of the pace himself,and although a sitting duck up front, he ground out a victory.And i explained this in detail as to how much i thought of this horse to many a punter.Yet i thought he was over the top after his defeat in the Gold Cup and i didn't back him. So as i say lto winners ok but probably the key is the trainer,are they the type of trainer to achieve this?. |
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I like last time out winners but for me it's about the horse, the race and the price. Like the lightly raced improver in h'caps, 3-1 or over, usually looking around the 6-1 mark, low weights nice, don't bet them when more than 2 in same race. Class of race for me makes no difference. Got loads of different strategies probably this is one of my top ones. Do my worst when I jump from one strategy to another.
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nice of you to tell us all about your earlier perceptions on certain races pipedreamer admirable stuff
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