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Joined: 30 Sep 01 | Topic/replies: 554 | Blogger: harchibald's blog
Desmond - That's precisely the point though. He doesn't get 3m in Grade 1 company. That is what they've said. Over lesser distances though - and I'd lump all over him for the Ryanair this year - he is evidently mustard. Yeah, fair point Harchi, I suppose he might be similar to Al Ferof in that regard, also not quite top class over 3m. But, whereas with Alf it was clear from his novice hurdle and novice chase days that he was a top class horse, I'm yet to see evidence of that with KP. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I have enough cliff horses without adding this fella to the list! |
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The only thing that puts me off from Double Ross at this stage is that they may aim Splash of Ginge at this. Jamie Bargary 7lb claim will be interesting whoever Twiston puts him on.
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Not a big fan of Kings Palace in large field, fast pace races.
I loved him as a Novice Hurdler, and backed him early season in victory at Chelters, and backed him at fancy odds to win the Albert B. Now, given two festival blowouts, I couldn't have him at any trip in a big field, fast pace. He may look great in small fields, dictating the pace, but that's not what Ante Post punting is about. |
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So what is Ante Post punting about then ? Can you tell us more ?
To me personally it's about 'value'. You can't eat value, that much IS true yes but he was 12/1 and he's now 8/1 so 12's was 'value' for some point in time at least anyway. He may not even run but if I traded out at 8's or lower then I've at least a 4 pts bet to nothing. Antepost liquidity ain't what it once was, the wild west days on here are long gone, but each to their own. In this instance I see the bet as a play for the race and I'm taking the risk that he won't run - yes I know that - but to me that's what it's about, 'value'. So if he runs and goes off at 7/4 on the day, like Grands Crus did (probably bigger I think this one though), then I could trade out in a very liquid market. At least this is what it's about to me ... what about you ? |
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Matt Chapman on ATR today said that Pipe and team think this horse is an absolute tool and a bit of a machine. He then said that his own (Chapman's) opinion of the horse was that he didn't want big fields. He cited the fact he fell in the Albert Bartlett and that he didn't think the hurly burly of a Paddy Power would be for Kings Palace. This said look at the stats. 5 times King Palace has ran in double digit 'big' fields of 10 or more and 3 times he has WON, twice he FELL. The small field/big field thing is bolo in my very honest opinion and I wouldn't let this put anyone off the horse. He could simply be not good enough or not up to defying this mark but I wouldn't let the big field thing affect your judgement whatsoever, seriously. If 6th place in the RSA is a true reflection of his form (I don't think it is obviously) then the handicapper is about 30lbs WRONG - and that ain't likely either.
Seriously this is the standout bet, even at 8/1. The more I look at it the more I got to have on ... |
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Of course AP betting, all betting for me, is about value.
But value against likely SP and value against chance of winning are different things imo. I thought you were making a case for him winning the race and 8/1 being a fair price for him that I don't. If you are backing to lay then that's different |
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Not backing to lay but tempted to if the price is right. It's always an option which is of course the great thing snit exchanges. The amount I've got on I'd be very silly not to lay it off at 7/4 if he got that short like Grands Crus but I've let heart rule head and it's a win bet for me for now ... That may change though.
In other news did you all see Blood Cotil was ruled out of this today by Rich Ritchie ? Won't run in the Paddy Power. |
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Read "about exchanges" sorry
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Irish Cavalier the clear choice for me. Just hope it runs.
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Rebecca Curtis favouring Charlie Hall over Paddy Power for Irish Cavalier
Monday 12 October 2015 Irish Cavalier Irish Cavalier, as short as 8-1 favourite with some bookmakers for next month's Paddy Power Gold Cup, could sidestep the prestigious Cheltenham handicap in favour of a tilt at the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. A winner at the Festival last season, the six-year-old made an impressive start to the new campaign in an intermediate chase at Newton Abbot on Saturday under leading Irish jockey Paul Townend, and trainer Rebecca Curtis is now eyeing a trip to West Yorkshire on October 31. "I thought he'd run well on Saturday, I just wondered whether Newton Abbot might be a bit on the sharp side, but he did it really well and made some good horses look fairly ordinary," said the Newport-based handler. "He was idling a bit when he hit the front and Paul just let him coast home. I think he's improved since last season. "I had a chat with Paul about what we should do next and he thinks we should be looking at Graded chases now. "He's obviously going to go up in the weights for winning and he would probably get beat in the Paddy Power by something carry 10st. "I think we're probably going to aim for the Charlie Hall now. I wouldn't completely rule out the Paddy Power as he's not a horse that needs minding - he's come out of the race so fresh - but I think we'll head to Wetherby first and take it from there." |
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Did you see this one ? Don't want to upset you Sageform but that news been out for a while. Of course, could well be just 'an option' and she could have this one aimed at the PP ... we all live in hope mate ! Irish Cavalier is a strong horse no doubt
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OK I may have thrown away £3 at 22/1 but if they change their minds, I will have a nice bet. And trainers with betting connections are not averse to changing their minds are they?
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No they are not and I really hope you get to enjoy that 22/1 when he runs chap, fairplay to you.
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Couldn't be backing KP myself. Backed him heavy for the RSA last season and i'm not buying the trainers excuses. He has shown flashes of brilliance but after his last race, coupled with the fact the trainer has stated he needs to do more schooling to see where the horses confidence is at, I couldn't have him as favourite! Sounds like he's not as good as they hoped to me!
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Mmmm that could be the case, Pipe still trotting out the 'untapped potential' and 'great believer in the horse' lines though ...
Been here before with Grands Crus. I however sense they're downplaying 'the hype' this time around. This thing about schooling. He ain't 'just' shooling now that' for sure - those jumping muscles need lots of development and not just to start schooling a month before. They have the indoor school at Pond House and I'd have a dime to my dollar they've popped him over those plenty. If anyone gets jumping right it is the Pipe team, look at what he says about the McCain relocated horses whose jumping issues he has to sort out ... keep the faith IMO |
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Also talking about his light frame and may race him sparingly, doesn't eminate confidence imo. No mention of it last season.
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Harchi, am I right in saying you back the Pipe horse whatever it is, each season in the PP?
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Hahah not necessarily but I've an interest in the yard doing well you could say. But this race revolves around that yard to a greater or lesser extend every year.
They prize this race very very highly and for me - and we all know you can't 'eat' value - there is sometimes clear value in a double digit Pipe favourite that goes off 7/4 ... it's like the Imperial Cup you always associate target races with target trainers. This said I didn't back Easter Meteor whatsoever although he showed hints of talent when with Lavelle, I didn't back Ballynagour (he bleeds so subsequently lightly campaigned), I did my pieces on Grands Crus and I backed Great Endeavour twice. I backed Our Vic, Fondmort, L'Antartique and Barbershop (went down to IC) over the years and when I was a kid I backed Lady Cricket when I was a lad. They've won this 9 times, David just the once though - he wants to win more that's for certain. Have you met them ? One thing's for sure, if you discuss this race with them you won't forget it. David always targets the Open meeting in November as I'm sure you know. |
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You are right Harchi, he had 4 winners on the Sunday 2 years ago and started crying afterwards. I think KP is all speed, and the distance will be perfect for him. If he is fit and well, he has a fantastic chance.
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That was pretty much my view bungers I'd agree ...
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When Kings Palace beat Salsaulito Sunrise the first time Mrs. P (Martin's Wife) said that KP must be an amazing horse as Sara Hobbs apparently thought Salsaulito Sunrise is/was the real deal. The team were very expectant that day in the paddock and beaming afterwards, as you'd expect !
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Its Sausalito Sunrise.
Liked the horse before i saw how it jumped. |
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Very good bumper/hurdlers don't always make it over fences. Both Sausalito and KP have come up short when moved up a grade over fences. They may yet prove toop class but every year we see promising chasers that are either lacking confidence or carrying an injury that reverses their apparent progress.
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FWIW David Pipe stated in Mark Howards book that he may start him off over 2 1/2 before stepping himback up in trip.
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Cocktails At Dawn has looked a much improved performer with front running tactics. I'm not saying he will win this but he will surely go from the front and this cannot help the chance of Kings Palace. I know some will say KP has sat close to the pace before, but in a race as fast run as this and with a likely big field it has to spell danger.
Can't really offer much of an opinion on who I do think will win as no idea of running plans, but if Champagne West(not even sure if he is fit) was to run on g/s or soft then I think he is better than his rating. However I do think he's a 3 miler in the making. As for the Hennessy and KP. Well he is guaranteed a good weight around 10st6 if Coneygree runs, but again he won't be able to dictate with Coneygree in the race. Good luck and hope you get a run for whatever you select. |
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just seen Champagne West won't be out until Xmas time - P.Hobbs stable tour
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He has looked good shockster and seems a fair price at 16/1. Shame they had to run him lto and push his rating up 8lb but he is certainly on an upward curve. I remember NJH giving an interview before he ran in the Neptune about how highly he thought of the horse but for whatever reason he's never justified it.
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He targets the meeting alright Harchi, just doubting the horse.
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Yeah I can see why but I doubted Great Endeavour second time around but still kept the faith and landed my biggest win ever. I'm biased towards seeing the best in whatever he runs but as you can see from my own experience - I don't back his blindly and still have to be selective/objective.
Owners son winding it all up a bit on Twitter isn't he ? |
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I've not seen him on twitter, what's his handle..
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KP is a complete woofer imo. Stick him in a poor race and he wins like a superstar on the bridle. Stick him in a good race and he finds nothing. Good luck with your bets but i couldnt be backing it.
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He's on Twitter as @Thechop333
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and layingisthewayforward what would you have in the race ?
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cheers
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I don't use twitter so maybe I'm missing something but typed his username into google and saw his twitter page and can't see anything on there that is hyping up KP for the Paddy Power?
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don't type his username into Google - type it into Twitter maybe ?
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I have been to his twitter thread (via the google link) - can't see much at all about KP and the Paddy Power. Care to tell me what date to look at?
https://twitter.com/thechop333?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author |
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Boondooma going for the PP, very impressive today.
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Agreed. Took the 14/1.
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