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21 Jun 14 16:53
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Date Joined: 12 Jul 07
| Topic/replies: 4,800 | Blogger: liberator of the oppressed's blog
I'll start it off. Richard Pankhurst wodge at 25/1 EW. Visibly I thought that looked ding diddly dong. Always get bit over excited at Royal Ascot and know I have probably done my dosh already.

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By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 04 Jul 14 06:05
Faydhan a non - stayer? Time looked good.
By:
sintonian
When: 04 Jul 14 07:25
Looks like he'd stay to me on breeding? He was impressive but I was quite as taken with him as most folks on twitter. He is now 20/1 Favourite.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 16 Sep 14 11:54
Market starting to take shape and the more interesting two year old G1s coming up with the Racing post Trophy, Dewhurst and Middle park all taking place in the next two to three weeks. I was v impressed with Estidhkaar on saturday in a decent enough time when carrying a penalty and thought he ran like a mile would be absolutely fine.
By:
penzance
When: 21 Sep 14 12:33
Faydhan
I know he's been put away for the year
but does anyone know the exact injury
he's got?.Can't seem to find any news
on it.
  cheers.
By:
argosy
When: 21 Sep 14 13:57
"Leg injury. Nothing major" Angus.
By:
alleged22
When: 23 Sep 14 11:10
at this moment in time estidhkaar for me
By:
sj
When: 06 Nov 14 19:44
Is Convey a serious contender? about 25s poke at the moment,just like to hear some of your thoughts/views.
By:
Figgis
When: 06 Nov 14 21:10
Well he started an odds on fav on debut so obviously has a bit of a reputation at home, and with the style of the win you'd have to think he's capable of much better than the bare form. That said, the bare form is pretty poor and so was the time, even though it was better than Div1. On bare form I rate him well below what Stoute's previous once raced at 2 Guineas winners (Doyoun and Golan) achieved on debut. He really could be anything but I'd prefer to see what he does in a trial and be prepared to take a shorter price than take a punt on him at this stage.
By:
sj
When: 07 Nov 14 08:07
cheers figgis
By:
oneyallbeenwaiting4
When: 03 Feb 15 18:51
Consort 33/1

too many gears for those Obrien 2 milers
By:
deepingfox
When: 04 Feb 15 00:01
Those highlighting CONVEY from the Stoute stable may be on too something in a market dominated by AOB and Hannon there has to be room for an alternative theory.

Really taking debut win, on the bridle, powering through the lollipop, and well bred for a mile.

Carried head a little on one side, and sheepskin noseband (unusual for the trainer) may indicate they spot the need to make the colt concentrate, and could just be greenness.

Overall a small punt at 25's isn't a bad call, for another Abdullah winner.
By:
go-all-in
When: 04 Feb 15 20:17
Can't believe the 2000G thread on here has so few replies! Not too long to wait now!

On the subject of the OP, I posted this about Richard Pankhurst on a separate thread, but I'll post it in here incase anyone has any info or opinions:

Does anybody know for definite if he's staying with Gosden?

And I'm presuming he had a problem that prevented him from running in a backed group race, anyone know what it was and if it's likely to hamper a potential 2000G prep?

The form of his Chesham win is really strong & the visual impression was excellent. I'v already had a good bet on him but just debating whether to go in again. If he's still with Gosden and is ready for a Craven--> 2000G prep I reckon he's got to have an excellent chance in a very open 2000G.


On the subject of Stoute's Convey, he was well supported on debut and is fairly solid in the market for the 2000, but I just don't see it personally. Sure he 'could be anything', and is most likely listed --> g3 class, but he didn't strike me as a potential 2000G winner. At the prices I think I'll still stick with my listed winner who beat Toscanini further than Glenegales did Love
By:
Millerracing67
When: 05 Feb 15 16:07
Richard P is with Gosden.
Heard an interview with his lady Ms Hood some wks ago on atr that the horse was in work & doing well.
Took a small interest on Ol' Man River for this last year 18.5 on here for a few ££. Liked the look of him last year, tho 10f will prob be his best trip at 3yo, his dam was a double 1000gns winner, nearly won 3 of them.
By:
go-all-in
When: 05 Feb 15 20:34
Glad to hear that he's staying with JG and he's doing well, I missed that interview.

Quite keen on Ol' Man River too. Backed him for the derby rather than the 2000, but then looking at his dam I'm concerned about the trip. I'm far from a pedigree expert though. I wouldn't much fancy a Montjeu over 8f... you're probably right about 10f.

Quite a tricky year with Aiden having so many good colts.
By:
lingbleed
When: 05 Feb 15 21:41
good colts or untested colts ,i do hope coolmore have a good here and we have yet to see the best from the juvenile's across the board that is .or will we be saying the usuall after 1 race ,there the worst bunch ever , and then by the end saying how that was a vintage bunch .roll on may
By:
deepingfox
When: 06 Feb 15 19:52
One or more of those Coolmore colts must be star quality, and my instinct tells me its JOHN F KENNEDY for the Guineas, and SIR ISAAC NEWTON for the Derby.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 07 Feb 15 13:27
See JFK as more of a Derby type myself.
At 10s the field on here its a wide open affair atm.
At the mo, i think the winner will come from AOB or Gosdens yards, both have a couple or more poss winners of the gns.
Cant wait till the Flat season to get going Cool NH not my thing betting wise, tho as always look forward to the Chelts Fest Cool in March, like a few little flutters at that.
By:
Figgis
When: 11 Feb 15 10:51
At this stage it looks a weaker than usual affair, although that could change after the trials. Personally I couldn't have any of the O'Brien runners. The Group races Gleneagles contested were poor renewals, imo, and the level of form was low. Ol Man River and JFK look more Derby types and I'm not even sure if either of them would be good enough to win that race, let alone have the speed to win a Guineas. I reckon the market has the right favourite in Faydhan. Like everybody else I was taken with his debut performance but I was also impressed with the time he clocked. On that showing I think he looks very good for a place and wouldn't need to show much improvement to win in an ordinary year, all being well with his prep.
By:
pandora1963
When: 12 Feb 15 21:01
ol man river looked pure class even though he wants further,could easily be good enough at a mile
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 17 Mar 15 18:10
ttt
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Mar 15 18:13
Maybe it is John Gosden's time to win a Guineas. I think he was unlucky not to win it last year with Kingman as they were still learning about his instant excelleration at the time and Doyle just went to soon. Faydhan didn't look quite as spectacular in his maiden but the form standouts via Dutch Connection.
By:
Shrews
When: 17 Mar 15 19:22
Kingman was an exceptional talent, which his runs after the Guineas proves.  The reason he didn't win the Guineas is because Gosden doesn't win the Guineas!
By:
go-all-in
When: 17 Mar 15 20:01
A little money today for Richard Pankhurst, Korals going 16s from 20s, and seemingly a hundred quid or two matched on here at prices around 20 (after there not being much money wanting to get on him for quite some time).

I don't buy into the whole "Gosden doesn't win the guineas" argument personally, he came close enough with Kingman, and Raven's Pass ran a very decent 4th. Other than Fencing, who ran respectably despite missing his prep & later proving to be not upto this level, you have to go back to 2005 to find his previous runner (Iceman, 7/1, disappointing).

Personally I think he's one of the finest trainers around at the moment, and with the ammunition he has, it won't be long before he wins a guineas. Whether that's this year with Feyhdan or Richie Pankhurst remains to be seen, but I don't think you can make a case for not backing them based on their trainer.

Worth noting he also has a good record in the 1000G in recent years, without checking, I seem to remember once raced maiden winners The Fugue and Starscape finishing 4th and 5th?
By:
sintonian
When: 17 Mar 15 21:39
Exactly shrews, Kingman was an exceptional talent. They learnt a great deal from the Guineas, he was easily the best horse in the race, or best miler.
By:
metro john
When: 17 Mar 15 21:56
One of those years I am finding it difficult to get excited about what we have seen over here, at the moment the french and German horses look a little bit better,OMR I think will likely be more forward than his other,who could turn into a chester cup sort(the other one)?Laugh the form looks a bag of ****!
By:
Figgis
When: 19 Mar 15 13:34
An incredibly short price for Gleneagles now, as low as 4/1 with one book, wtf?! He's won five times since his debut so obviously has some talent but in some years 2yo Group races can be extremely weak and, for me, that goes for all the races Gleneagles contested. I know a horse can only beat the opposition it's faced with and there's the possibility he just does enough but the way a couple of his races were run I'd be surprised if he was capable of much better than he's shown. In my view, without big improvement he would be barely Listed class in a typical season for 3yos.

It appears that some early money has come from those closest to the horse but is this a sign that Coolmore have an exceptional 3yo on their hands or an indicator that he's probably their best of a mediocre mile division? At this stage I'm siding with the latter. Even though I've said it looks a weaker than average renewal up to now, with the possible exception of Faydhan I think there should still be at least a couple capable of finishing ahead of Gleneagles. His current price is madness, imo, and I'll be laying him if that price holds up or shortens nearer the day.
By:
Figgis
When: 19 Mar 15 13:35
* five times including the disq
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Mar 15 13:54
just went  as low as 4.2 on ear
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 19 Mar 15 13:56
back to 5.5 now
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Mar 15 13:56
I sometimes think the gambles on Ballydoyle horses are underestimated. Quite often theirs get smashed on track and win and it usually happens when they have another horse in the race. I don't often pay attention to market moves but with them it's usually worth noting.

With regards Gleneagles and the sudden serge of money, all I would say is in recent years there has been noticeable weakness on several of the AOB horses over the winter months for the Guineas, and the layers were proven correct. Mastercraftsman, Misty For Me, and several others were layed at big prices in Dec/Jan and as it transpired they turned up at HQ unfit. Maybe the money is telling us Gleneagles will be fit? Roderic O'Connor would have been a market weakness too had he not been tipped by price wise in Frankel's year.

Taking the market as a whole, even though there is still plenty of time for things to change, then you can see Ballydoyle might find the prices appealing as they have 4 of the top 6 in the betting and there are considerable doubts about Faydhan and Ivawood (won't stay).
By:
Figgis
When: 19 Mar 15 14:04
Sint, yes I don't doubt that the money is significant regarding the horse's well being and readiness for the Guineas as his target. I just look at the other Coolmore possibles though and, for me, they are horses who shouldn't really cut it at the top level over a mile. I believe he's definitely their pick, as I did last year when the money came for Australia, I just think he's their pick of an ordinary bunch in the mile division.
By:
sintonian
When: 19 Mar 15 14:14
It's a funny market for him as there is a wedge waiting to get on at 5.5 but then nothing else until £10 at 9.0. Not a consistent queue of cash.
By:
Figgis
When: 19 Mar 15 14:34
Actually I rate Highland Reel marginally better than Gleneagles, even though the latter has the better CV, but neither of them have shown enough for me to fancy them for a Guineas.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 19 Mar 15 16:07
gleaneagles is a miler, ballydolyles others look they need further to me, probaly showing them up on the gallops on that basis
By:
Masterminded
When: 19 Mar 15 20:48
It has been a weird market as we had no standout 2yo last season and therefore no obvious favourite. It's been hard to have an opinion on the race. All it needed was for AOB and Coolmore to decide who their number one was and a gamble like this was going to occur. Apart from anything it means his other horses who were/are still near the top of the market are unlikely to be 100%.

I liked Gleneagles last year but I have to say I didn't think he ever struck me as a Guineas winner. He certainly has to be respected now though. I think I'm going to need to see some of the trials before making any opinion on it myself. Hopefully one of the lightly raced horses will shake the market up a bit because it's looking like a weak renewal at the moment.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 19 Mar 15 22:37
poeple asking for 4.6 must be 100/30 with commision, barmy !
By:
Shrews
When: 20 Mar 15 00:11
There wouldn't be a significant gamble just based on his performances versus this years crop. Gallop times would be compared with 'stars of the past' before any significant cash is wager'ed.
By:
smartie3
When: 20 Mar 15 00:34
someone with cash obviously knows
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Mar 15 07:41
How long until we hear 'could be the best we've had' Confused
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