2000 GUINEAS (2015)

Lets hope so SK,think they will hold onto Ivawood though.

What is this new cutaway rail all about.Where is it and what is it intended to achieve?
I believe that Kingman lost last year because he was drawn low on the far side or a combination of that and jockey miscalculation
If Elm Park runs he will most likely lead giving those drawn high an advantage
Any other thoughts on this?

Free Timeform race pass - https://www.timeform.com/racing/racecard/race/2015-05-02/36/4

Good stuff,  and a eye opener concerning speed ratings. Thanks all at Timeform

ESTIDHKAAR drawn (6) OL´ MAN RIVER (2) JOB needs to be about 2L behind until 7f gotta chance to track the pace.

Never been much impressed by Timeform's timefigures but I'm sure others swear by them, each to their own and all that. Estidhkaar looks to have a very big rating going into the race, I don't know all their historical ratings but I'd guess that figure would be good enough to take most runnings of the Guineas without any improvement necessary, which also would mean that Muhaara would've also been good enough to take a typical Guineas assuming he stayed. My ratings disagree with this and, ratings aside, I have trouble accepting the likelihood of this being true, we shall see.

Hi figgis, no i do not believe the speed figure of 135, not sure I could believe 127, but none the less the figure does exist, I would point out that the legend Frankel recorded 125 in Dewhurst, 136 in Guineas, 128 in Queen Anne and 134 in Champion stakes. Thus those that do follow the speed figures will be very keen in what looks a poor year on official and private ratings we have a speed figure of enormous proportion.It's interesting too say the least.

Infact that figure not in isolation he has recorded two figures above 125(126-135)This makes for much discussion , bearing in mind he does appear too be outpaced over the 7f at a crucial stage and many a good judge believe he will be better at the mile. (not certain myself after he made the pace in the last event?)

My own hcp figure is 119, I think TF have 121 0r 122 , this looks  reasonable.

Metro John, I think 7f is a difficult distance. If the horses are produced late enough, I think some 6f animals can get 7f. Muhaarar is not a slouch. Gimcrack winner, 3rd in Middle Park. 3rd & 4th Group 1 winners as 2yos. Good form. All the time guys say he's flying. He's going to be much quicker than most of these over a mile & I think a couple like Ivawood won't stay.

Hi sacred Kingdom, many different opinions can be formed on a single piece of evidence, Fans of IVAWOOD could argue that he was looked after and ran the ideal prep race in a hot and very speedy contest, they could argue if ESTIDHKAAR was Hannons best horse ,why would they give it such a hard race???, this is a valid point, too be honest after Night Of thunder last year, this stable are starting perhaps to get a bit of a reputation for covering up their cards(I don't like it) but that is their choice.

Muhaarar confuses everything in my mind, but sometimes horses just improve at a rapid rate for no foreseen reason,this could be the case?

Why is it all the good uns get drawn out in the flecking car park?

Cpuld get very messy for the Fav, with stalls stands rail i can see Ryan having nowhere to go

Only £55 to lay Estidhkaar :/

No better jockey than Moore to get a gd position to strike in the big races imo.
Looks set fair for g/f ground come Sat if weather forecasts are correct.
Showers for Sunday, will help keep the sting out of the ground hopefully.
Lets hope we get two gd clean run Guineas races to get the ball rolling for another great Flat Season of 2015

Looking at last year's  Grand Criterium I notice Gleneagles date of birth 12/01/12 with Territories 07/05/12.  Which had the most potential improvement as a three year old?

Ryan Moore was always going to ride Gleneagles.

Apr 30, 2015 -- 7:33PM, kincsem wrote:

Looking at last year's

We know Territories is fit also( preparation)

Well I have said enough, I believe in Ol’ Man River and  Territories(more proven belief and better draw) I hope Joseph gets the breaks, OMR promises more than any other in this field. Really looking forward too watching the race, it may not be standard but what a cracker!

Does anyone think the new stalls alignment is going to make a big difference? The RP website is carrying an article quoting Ryan Moore saying he thinks the narrowing of the track, the movement of stalls to the stands rail and a cutaway at the 2 furlong marker will disadvantage horses drawn low, he is drawn in stall 16. He also says that it has been this way since 1809 so why change it.

Since 1996 9 of the 19 races have had 18 or more runners and the winning stall numbers where 2,16,1,1,3,3,10,5 & 12 (the RP now shows what they have changed to since RH tracks were numbered low to high from the inside). Having watched a replay of Golan's win in 2001 the stalls were against the stands rail (not 1809 Ryan), he was drawn in stall 1, got a bit of cover and from about 3 furlongs out travelled predominantly up the centre of the track. Another of the winners in 2011, some horse called Frankel, also drawn 1, raced up the centre of the track and it didn't seem to do him any harm either. You might argue that being drawn high is a bit of an inconvenience but the cutaway will hopefully negate that for any closing horses.

I wouldn't worry yourself too much about it.  The horse that wins it will be the one trained for the race and the one that is the fittest. That'll be Gleneagles. 

Found won't win the 1000, obviously not quite right.  Together Forever will be backed heavily on the day as everyone suddenly realises this horse has been number one for the Guineas all along.  It hasn't been prepped for anything else, no summer targets.  Just win the Guineas and then pay a visit to a Ballydoyle stallion somewhere this time next year.  Job done!

Found and Together Forever already non runners.

Figgis - how do you have this rated pls?

Preview.  It says this was in the Racing Post Weekender.
I don't buy that paper often as there is no Nick Mordin article (or is there?)
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2015/2015_2000_guineas_preview.htm

Kev, I use a much lower scale but the ratings are still in pounds. Obviously the distance each rating was achieved has to be considered, some are unlikely to stay. Those that have run this year have had an opportunity to show any improvement, whereas those without a run could be capable of better, plus some of those with a run may have hard races in their trials. Also some will improve more than others. For example Muhaarar showed much more improvement in the Greenham than I expected, I wouldn't be too sure about him replicating that form though wherever he runs next.

55 - Ivawood (last year)
52 - Estidhkaar
49 - Intilaaq
47 - Home of the Brave
46 - Kool Kompany
46 - Bossy Guest
43 - Elm Park (last year)
42 - Capella Sansevero (last year)
41 - Gleneagles

Kev, my ratings are as follows and in no particular order

Ivawood
Estidhkaar
Territories
Gleneagles

On balance I like Territories the best and will definitely back each way.

Abuse me later.

Shrews is a numpty 1.01

Lol.

Pile on Quality !

"Sure, it was not ideal that the field split into two groups in last year's Guineas, but they have been running the Guineas since 1809 and they have never seen the need for a cutaway until now", said Moore.

Not much of an argument to say just because something's been done a certain way for over 200 years that there's no need for change. The splitting into two groups that we've seen a number of times down the years turns the spectacle of the race into a complete bollocks. I don't know if it'll work out but I'm glad that Newmarket are attempting to improve the situation. Even if it's not a success it's at least a start and something to work on.

looks an awful guineas to me a real shame, minimum steaks play, cant have ivawood, ol man river or intilaq on my mind especaily OMR, if he did happen to win gonna be 4/6 for the derby.

cant see that gleneagles hasnt acheived much less than dawn approach who hacked up a few years ago, money in march suggests hes well forward, thou i think the others will surpass him later in the year, hills 4/1 in the morning will do for me

good luck all

really tricky guineas

I am struggling to come to terms with gleneagles, i suppose he just doesn't look that good to warrant being as short as he is, i still respect him and he should run well...the surprising one for me at the prices is ol man river he looks as slow as a boat to me and on the prevailing fast ground surely he wont be fast enough, the same applies (price wise) to intilaaq who really is short for this after looking impressive in his maiden romp, however the charlton favorite pulled hard that day and didn't appear to like the fast ground, he looks a nice prospect but this looks a huge step up...

ivawood is a horse i really respect and it is hoped he comes on massively from his prep run but it was a tad lifeless from him... i still rate him the best horse in this however he is just a small saver for me...estidhkaar warrants respect and if he came on again from the run he surely should take some beating here, it is hoped he doesn't bounce but this hardy horse is very tough and if he can back up he surely has an excellent chance, however it was a tough race for him and although i've backed him, in the back of my mind i am worried he won't back up

really tough race and my main fancy is celestial path for sir mark prescott, really like the colt and he wasn't seen out till late as a 2 year old but i just think he could be a nice horse and in a very open year i don't see him having a whole lot to find against these horses...his last run was decent before flattening out on the soft ground against a top class horse elm park, who is himself over priced for this...he still has plenty to find but is still open to massive improvement and i'm hoping he can step up...can sir mark ready one for a guineas i certainly think he can 

anyway a really tight betting heat so not big stakes but lets hope sir mark can get a classic on the board

Small bet on Moheet at 28s.

I've come to this race late this year and had no preconceived ideas.Hopefully, I can see the wood from the trees.

On the figures, I see no standout horse to beat this year.

The TF ratings for Estidhkaar don't look right to me, especially the timefigure (I'm assuming that 135 must be weight adjusted otherwise we have another Frankel, which he isn't.) I think that TF have over-rated the Greenham but that's just my opinion.If I'm right, that makes Ivawood's run disappointing, but as Hughes believes that he will improve 10lb for it then he could get a lot closer always assuming that he will get 8f as well as he gets 6f.(I have my doubts.)

Intilaaq made his debut on the same day at Newbury and he was very impressive both visually and on the clock.A big task stepping up to G1 and whilst I expect him to run well, the race may come too soon. We'll be hearing more about this one later on, but not for me today.

I think that Kool Kompany took advantage of race pace at Newmarket and I can't see him being good enough.

That leaves me with O'Briens pair plus Fabre's. Given the talent of the trainers and the horses at their disposal plus the fact that Territories has been supplemented, I am focussed on Gleneagles, OMR and territories, for the winner.

The Lagardere (Grand Criterium)was a G1 and although the overall time was nothing special, I think that the race holds the key for today. It was difficult to clock the sectionals but a stab at doing so indicates that Gleneagles showed a smart turn of foot that day and Territories might have finished second without interference. Both have been targetted at todays race and Fabre's horse looked very good when winning impressively over 8f on his comeback.

OMR could be anything given his purchase price and breeding but on the bare figures he has a bit to find. Tony Calvins comment that the AOB yard think that Gleneagles is their Guineas horse and OMR their Derby horse, plus the market, indicates  to me that Gleneagles is the one for today.

So, its a a dutching bet for me on Gleneagles and Territories which amounts to 6/4 one of them wins.

Good luck to all.

Hope the 2000gns goes the way of AOB for my £££.
Fear the Fr colt Territories most myself.
Hope we get a gd clean run race & the best horses come to the fore.
Best of luck with your bets lads.

Decided to top up my Ivawood bet. I have his Greenham run 17lbs below his best and while I know many horses don't train on and some go backwards I find it hard to believe he'd lose 17lbs of speed with no big injury setback (at least none we've been told of). Since Hannon Jr became more involved at the yard there has been a notable tendency for more of their runners to go off undercooked early in the season, which is no bad thing, imo. I think Hughes' explanation is a plausible one. Obviously there remains a doubt and the same goes for his ability to last out the trip but the odds are still much too big for a horse that, while probably being no superstar, looks a cut above what look an ordinary lot to me.

The ground is putting me off Territories. Think he wants s bit of cut myself.

Had a go at Hills special Ol' Man River to win this and the Derby at 25/1.

Can't have a classic winner by Zebedee

Re my post yesterday, have backed them all each way. Not totally convinced about Ivawood but at the price think I might be able to trade before the off.

Backing 4 horses each way at the prices available, particularly the shortest 3 seems a tight profit margin target for the outlay?

Not if you have a lot on.

I said profit margin to outlay, not amount of profit.

The overriding requirement is not to lose, thereafter any profit is a bonus.

But as 4 each way bets is effectively 8 bets, won't a win for Gleneagles and none of the others placed result in a loss?

a dodgy strategy.

surely you use that one if you have horses who are well priced.
if the margins are too tight leave alone and dont resist the urge to have to bet.

not a race to go to big on.

liked intilaaq at newbury.
decent speed figure for a second run and would have clocked a better one by some way imo had it had help in the race...enough so imo to overtake his owners other horse.

we will see though..

think its also more suited to the derby....

Yes,but minimal.

Re the Derby it`s all green already.

A Gleneagles win at odds of around best price 7/2 each way and others unplaced equals 2 bets won but 6 lost, seems a considerable amount of outlay lost, especially "if you have a lot on". As G1_Jockey says, a strange strategy.

Im with Feltfair
FELTFAIR • May 2, 2015 1:58 PM BST
The overriding requirement is not to lose, thereafter any profit is a bonus.

Having taken 33s plus on Estidhkaar and Moheet for plenty and layed the fav @ 3.6 ish quite happy to take the profit all round.

geoff m, a voice of reason.

ah i see the comparison in strategies

A win for Territories at the price and others unplaced would result in possibly just about recovering outlay? A win for Estikhaad would result in a small profit on total outlay. Seems to me that a lot is riding on more than one making the frame, but at those prices the only result that would make a decent profit on total outlay is Ivawood, but he's the one your least sure of.

*you're

Or even Estidhkaar

Times concur with the official description, proper good to firm, no excuses on that score.

Friend says Old Man River needs the run, Ivawood looks good, Estidhkaar & Ride Like The Wind his favourite 2 but don't rule out Ivawood. Intilaaq's got his **** out lol.

like i said best form in the book

boom ! well dunn winners

Only got the first three.

Easy. Absolutely killed them.

Well done Gleneagles backers. A poor result for me and a bad assessment of Gleneagles on my part, he's obviously pretty good after all.

The clock rarely lies.

Well done Gleneagles backers. Estidhkaar :'(

fk me that was a shocking run from estidhkaar....was thinking bounce but looking at the 1m 4 race the front runners got badly done in that too....makes you wonder.

Fair play figgis ,your last post is why i prefer this forum to the horse racing one ,you had a strong opinion ,u backed that opinion ,and then held your hands up when you were wrong .You would be shot on the other one for that

my take on ivawood is the horse was very forward last season and more powerfully built, so had a good advantage
over the other horses. form and pedigree just didnt stack up as a potential guineas winner, to the horses credit it made the place money. did run well.

Cheers, lingbleed, as you'll know, it's just one result in a long season. Not sure I agree with Hannon that Ivawood was a definite stayer. He was keen early, Hughes had to make efforts to settle him and he travelled beautifully for the first 6 furlongs. Obviously he stayed up to a point. Danehill finished third to Nashwan in that year's Guineas but he was better over shorter and I think Ivawood could be too, personally I wouldn't be following him on that form over a mile anyway.

No matter how long I have been punting I never learn not to complicate things.
Gleneagles had the best 2-y-o form, settles well and has a great turn of foot. Probably more importantly, being so early in the season, it was heavily backed a few weeks ago, obviously once the proper work had begun at Ballydoyle. Fair enough it drifted in the last week or so but that is as much due to punters, like me, looking away from the favourite, desperately trying to seek a bit of inspiration.

Impressive performance from Gleneagles
Had some concerns when he got very warm & edgy in the paddock, but was fine going down to & at the start, looked the winner from some way out imo. Looks an out&out miler to my eye.

Well done buckets.

Best horses finished 1st and 2nd but a high draw was a big advantage so the new layout didn't have the desired effect.

Backers not buckets.

think it was a massive advantage to be held up in this with cover.

the whole front rank capitulated....

Strong head wind so cover was very important.

The time indicated a fairly strong headwind.

also havent heard but has frankie got pulled up for his bit of riding on moheet ?

thought he was gonna knock half the field over...

The winner was fairly impressive and I have him around a stone better than I'd previously rated him, which is embarrassingly wide of the mark. However, I still couldn't rate his past form any higher, so I don't regret taking him on, I've stood against such runners in the past with overall success and would do so again. In hindsight it's true that he'd been just doing enough last year.

Having said Gleneagles won well, I rate it no better than ordinary Guineas form. It was no surprise to me to see Bossy Guest finish quite close, as I had previously put him up amongst my higher rated in the race, but it does hold the form down somewhat, along with some other fairly close finishers. The time also points to just okay Guineas form, having accounted for conditions.

I've been very wrong about Gleneagles before and maybe I am again, maybe he just did enough again today, but even though he's better than I previously thought I don't rate him a great miler. I can't see me opposing him in the very near future as it's difficult to see any obvious threats. I certainly wouldn't bet against him when running against other 3yos. Unless he improves, however, I don't see him going through the season like a Kingman and I'll be looking to oppose him again further down the line.

First well done too all fans of Gleneagles, if you missed large ante post prices you got fair value today. Now I must say the race was the very poorest of Guineas, possibly the worst ever. Almost impossible too rate highly without allotting major improvement for the 4th and 5th, form was reversed , the second had a hands and heels ride, Ivawood will be credited with running too his best, I  struggle too bring the race above 116. The ground was good, the winner impressive , the form looks dull(bar the winner).

But hey that's racing

Think people have been a tad unkind to the winner. He had this race shot to pieces from halfway and if challenged would have seen him in an even better light. If he has only just done enough today god help anything else that tries to take him on later on in the year.

that gamble in march  when he went from around 8s to around 3s in the shops in the space of a day or 2  a very short time proved to be well founded ,they must have put him up against a fair yardstick at home ,plenty must have  had it off !

day or to in ^^^^^^^^^^^^

metrojohn - " Now I must say the race was the very poorest of Guineas, possibly the worst ever."

I firmly believe I have seen that comment, about 20 times in the last 30 years.  You can't all be right

Just catching up....

Sacred Kingdom - Can we agree that Gleneagles has trained on?   Thanks.

Surprised the winner isn't getting more credit myself. They were very sweet on the French horse and he's beaten him easily. Think the front three or four will go on to have very good seasons myself, and show the winner to to be top drawer. Excellent performance.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying he's a poor winner. The worst two winning performances I've seen in recent years were Island Sands and Refuse To Bend and he's certainly better than them. I also rate him slightly above some other winners, including a few from the O'Brien yard like King of Kings, Footstepsinthesand and Camelot. I rate him about average which definitely doesn't mean poor. I just reckon like most big race winners from that yard the hype will take over, especially as the win was reasonably stylish, and he'll be priced up like a superstar in future races, for me he still hasn't proved that yet.

Just a quick comment about the ground, I was quite shocked how much water they put on it, it could have proved risky if the wind would have blown a bit stronger and the rain arrived earlier, It seems that they do accommodate the staying sort, which I suppose in understandable, not sure how much rain they are having at Newmarket , but it's pissing down buckets in Brum, I  would think the ground heavy by this afternoon for the Oaks.(be cautious)

excuse me , I do mean the 1000 Guineas( just thinking a proper Oaks filly needed)

WD to Gleneagles backers.
I thought today was his visually most impressive performance in clearly his hardest task todate.
Estidhkaar very dissapointing probably feeling the effects of a very hard Greenham.
Didnt get the horse right but fortunately got the prices right.



Metro forecast overnight rain didnt materialise had very little 0.5mm ground changed to even quicker altho rain expected this morning.

Gleneagles, National Stakes, The Curragh, 14/09/14

Not aftertiming.  I didn't back him.

geoff m , cheers.

Just had a look at the Kentucky Derby again , a fantastic performance by American Pharoah would rate it around 126, Plenty of the placed horses of interest for the future.

From a form point angle, the result was pleasing, with 2yo group 1 form being proven correct.

But, I have a worry that the form may not hold up. It would seem that the stands side had a clear advantage, even though the best horse run.

I'd be concerned about Gleneagles going around a bend at Ascot. Territories looks tailor made for the French derby. Ivawood still says 6/7f to me. Of the others, Dutch Connection looks the most promising and a step up in trip to 10f would be ideal. Maybe the Dante.

Gleneagles not handle a bend ??  Rubbish imo

May 2, 2015 -- 2:51PM, blackbarn wrote:

metrojohn - " Now I must say the race was the very poorest of Guineas, possibly the worst ever."I firmly believe I have seen that comment, about 20 times in the last 30 years.  You can't all be right

Hi blackburn, Estidhkaar was never domineering in the center of track, we can only conclude he did not recover from  the pace he made in the Greenham,everything about the race screams poor quality, and possible draw bias, not sure Newmarket will race with that cutaway again, did it make any difference? two groups raced a short distance apart.The winner just could prove a class apart, and in my eyes worth a try over 10f against his own generation, he did possibly , visually (not rating), improve  going up in distance, regardless of jockey comments after race.

TF rate Gleneagles 126, it's all about opinion? (where do they get that from)

Estidkhaar one to back in the SJP. Clearly the edge taken off him in the Greenham.

He clearly ran below par Sint, but he is not up to the level of Gleneagles imo. Would make him a bit of a shoe-in for the SJP on gd/fast ground.

Estidhkaar might not get a mile. I calculated him suited to 6.5 furlongs.
I put him up as a place lay further up the thread.