Horse Antepost
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2000 GUINEAS (2015)
2000 GUINEAS (2015)
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I agree with Shrews, the money wouldn't be purely based on performances against this year's crop, I assume it would also be based on home time performances. However, judging the merit of time performances on a racecourse can be tricky and I'd say it would be even trickier getting more than a ball park figure using home gallops. Australia had supposedly achieved 4 consecutive 11 sec furlongs at home, something he never got anywhere near on a racecourse, I'd guess there must've been a hell of a tailwind at Ballydoyle that day. O'Brien also once said that SNA was achieving times as good as any of their previous top milers, which suggests they also do historical comparisons, which most time enthusiasts would say is useless.
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Aiden has centrainly used '' Data '' in the past to judge his horses at home. Starspangledbanner clocked exceptional times too and apparently needed a parachute to slow him down after a workout! Great quote that was.
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I find it quite funny that ivawood is already written off as a sprinter and is widely on here no real chance of winning when imo he brings the best form to the table, bar a couple of horses whom i'm keen to keep to myself at this stage
on breeding you would think he would be a sprinter being by zebedee a first season sire last year who we know little about but is thought to be more of a speed influence, it has to be remembered however he is out of keenes royal a very progressive filly who stayed a mile and half well, who herself is by kinnaird who has produced 2 others who have stayed quite well admittedly these 2 were bred to get further but this is the first off spring out of keenes royale as far as i know... anyway i am happy to forgive him his run on soft ground last time in the middle park and say he has every chance if getting fast ground come the day and shouldn't be written off...he may well prove to be a sprinter in time but if they have taught him to settle over the winter he has certainly got a potent turn of foot and the class to put it up to these horses i read somewhere this is a 2 horse race and as much as i respect fayhdan as he looks a tool, i certainly don't rate gleneagles that highly and am now quite keen to have a good browse now, in what looks an open renewal i haven't had a bet by the way for those that think i fancy ivawood as have reservations myself but i wouldn't be so quick to dismiss his chances as he is the best horse in the race who isn't a really keen type either...we will know more after the trails i suppose |
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Fayhdan's form really stacked up with a future group three winner toiling behind him. If I had to have a bet today it would be on this fella.
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£2,000 queueing up on Fayhdan at 6/1 - must have worked well this morning.
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Full Mast definitely being aimed at the Poulains? If he turns up at Newmarket, surely won't be 25-1. Any quotes from Madame?
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Took the leap to make my first racing post - usually stick to boxing.
Ante post wise the first 2 classics are the only ones i tend to play and look forward to every year. Chad - full mast was my first bet after Madame sounded very keen about a Newmarket trip before and after the Longchamp run. I'm still convinced the Gleneagles win wouldnt have looked that easy if the jockey on Full Mast was fully switched on - almost thought he had it won early - poor. A lot bigger price now tho on here. 150 ish. Agree with earlier comment on this thread RE whichever horse 'the boys' picked as Guineas number 1 was going to get gambled anyway. My main bet is Richard Pankhurst at 19 and 20 about 10 days ago. Also had a few pennies on Sir Isaac Newton after AOB said last Thursday and again on Sunday he may well be aimed at the 2000. Was 250, couldnt resist! Cheers |
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Pankhurst being quite heavily punted again
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Cursed by p-wise i presume.
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Presumed incorrectly.
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Yeah Seagull has gone for Consort and Celestial Path, both at 33s
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likely greenham runners,
ivanwood, the wow signal,flaming spear. likely craven runners, Richard Pankhurst, estidhkaar, moheet. |
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odd, no comments in the post today about a O'Brien likely guineas runners.
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Convey is out to 150 here on Betfair. Any news about this horse
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Setback, out.
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Gleneagles drifting out to more realistic price on here, or is their a problem?
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convey somebody took my 5 quid at 300 so it must b out not read anything yet
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Perhaps you should have read the post 2 above yours....
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yes my bet was placed 3 days ago
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I meant (tongue in cheek) about the "not read anything" bit.
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ok i let u off where did u read about it being out
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Stoute was quoted (can't remember where) 2 or 3 days ago - which probably means the setback happened 2 or 3 months ago....
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ok cheers it was only a silly fiver ive had a few of them only need a couple of them to make the race
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Flaming Spear of small interest at 44.00 on hear
 Very highly regarded by K Ryan, looks likely to have his trial in Newbury's Greenham next Sat. One of the more interesting dark horses at a price for me. |
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Any news on the Dewhurst winner, Belardo?
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That's tough on you Liberator re Richard Pankhurst. An arch cynic might argue that it is convenient for Richard Pankhurst to be a little stiff behind so misses his prep and then no point going for the Guineas, but saves the trainer the problem of running two good colts against each other in a Classic.
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Whens the next forfeit stage?
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Willie Belardo runs in Greenham tomoz in what looks a red hot contest.
However the disparity in price between him and Estidhkaar beggars belief. Estidhkaar beat him readily @ Doncaster on decent ground giving him 3lbs then form reversed in Dewhurst on soft ground and Estidhkaar suffered a stress fracture. Back on decent ground 32ish for Estidhkaar for the guineas looks the stand out value @ present. Bullish comments from Richard Hannon about this colt this morning. |
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I agree Geoff - though didn't realise Estidhkaar got a stress fracture in the Dewhurst.
He missed the break that day and, a bit like Fayhdan the other day, just never got on an even keel and the leaders skipped clear on the favoured running rail. I backed him after the Champagne at 25/1 but just put a line through the Dewhurst run as it clearly wasn't his running - and the injury explains it. Not sure if I fancy him for the Greenham tomorrow - I wish he was going straight to Newmarket. |
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From Hannon website:
Richard Hannon said:"Hughesie is adamant that Ivawood is the real deal, and we have loved him from day one. I am pleased that the ground has dried up, because, though he can go in the soft, he is such a terrific mover and the better the going the more impressive he looks. "He was a very good two-year-old, and the fact that he settles so well and is not a tearaway gives us plenty of reason to be optimistic that he will stay both this seven furlongs and the Guineas mile. "However, the handicapper has Estidhkaar only 2lb behind Ivawood, and I have always thought that there was not a lot between them. "Estidhkaar is a joy to watch in the mornings. He points his toe up the gallop and wants to please, and, like Ivawood, he barely put a foot wrong as a two-year-old. "We have put a line through the Dewhurst, which was his one disappointment. His last piece of work before Newmarket had been outstanding, so we could not believe our eyes when he flopped up there. "He did not go to post well and was not keen to leave the stalls either, so we suspected something was amiss, and he was never ever travelling in the race. It transpired that he had suffered a small hairline fracture of the hock, but that is all behind him now, and we are looking forward to getting him going again." |
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Had no idea about his injury either, worth a bet at the prices.
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Cracking trial 2day at Newbury, which will hopefully be run at a fair pace from the off, unlike the Craven
 Ivawood is the form pick & u would be hopeful that 7f would be within his dist range (fast 2yo) not sure to get the gns mile. Hannon team look forward as norm, so both of his 2day should be str enough to go well. Be interesting to see how Belardo handles this faster ground, his very gd form is with ease in the ground at 2yo. Dick Whittington's 2yo form is solid enough beating the Craven winner (Kool Kompany) last season, at 10s this morn with Hills was a bit overpriced for me for an ew play. Liked the look of Flaming Spear at York last season in winning well in his only run at 2yo, he is the dark horse of the race for me, trainer thinks highly of him.All in all a cracking trial. |
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Got to be pleased with that from Estidhkaar - given the paucity of realistic candidates I'm tempted to go in again at 14/1.
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Delighted with that run was rallying @ the finish and can see turning tables on winner.
Course Record time. |
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Pair drew clear of 3rd, so gd runs from them both. Winner looked less ready to my eye in fitness 2day so would not be sure about a form turnaround myself, though the winner might just be well suited by 7fs as he is speedily breed. No 2000gns winner in there would be my thoughts after that race.
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The best 7f+ form shown so far but a good few pounds short of typical Guineas standard. In what looks a substandard year it wouldn't be impossible for such form to prove good enough but a negative for me is that could have been quite a tough race to take in with the big race only 14 days away. Still, I would rather side with that form than back Gleneagles who looks well overrated in the market.
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The clock was very impressive but the extra furlong of the Guineas is a question.
The race is rapidly becoming a swerve. I backed Elm Park at 29 and have layed 19. Will probably leave it at that. |
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The fav is a shocking price. Esthidkhaar thro War Front and Aktabantay has as good if not better form in the book . Plus has proved his fitness/form after setback in final start in a hot Greenham.
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The bounce after a hard race on very fast ground for an injury prone horse must be a worry, despite the promise shown today. They really should run Zawraq, who I'd have as favourite. Celestial Path also interesting back on decent ground though he's so weak on here he must be doubtful. Gleneagles should be about 8s.
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Prob on my own with this view, but had another little nibble on Ol'Man River at 42.00 & 9.0pls.
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