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2000 GUINEAS (2015)
2000 GUINEAS (2015)
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Replies: 356
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Zawraq 38.0. Goes Derrinstown?
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Has any one got any idea if Vert De grece will go for Guineas. Seems quite a few bubbles being burst regarding the front of mkt and this one is rock solid from last year and even got to a length off Gleneagles. Bit of money for it last couple of days. But got entry for this and Dante. Appreciate def going to stay further but Varian did use this for Kingston hill as 'trial' for derby wondered if anyone has heard if he'll be doing the same here 40/1 e/w could look very big in my opinion.
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Tema
Talk oh vert de grece going to French 2000. |
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ok thanks for info
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No pink for Highland Reel. Looks out. #dante
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Encouraging for me that Hannon believes Hughes will stick with Ivawood.
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I mean encouraging that they still consider him a live chance, obviously Hanagan would ride Estidhkaar anyway.
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4 days after the Greenham and still Estidhkaar is being hammered in the betting. Blue every day. Optimistic!
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Hope so SK on at 27s on here,must have great chance bar the Fav?
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Only horse I can take seriously is the one who beat him! Gleneagles seems like a flash in the pan to me. Very forward 2yo, like his mum. Will get found out now I think.
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people remebering how NOT came on last year
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Did anyone read Charlie Hills' comments in the RP Weekender today re Muharaar and Dutch Connection..
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No what did he say?
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I want to know myself..gist is he fancies DC more than the Greenham winner.
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poor gleaneagles ,still getting ripped apart on this tread ,i think a year older more mature he'll be a real force .For what its worth he is a gorgeous looking horse with a lovely stride haven seen him in the flesh ,and thats my own opinion . He will sit just off the pace , the quicker the better and just pick them off at will .He could only beat whats was in front of him at two .and the more i look at the race in france ,when you see the angle from behind , once the rider of full mast see's gleaneagles starting to drift in he starts pushing like crazy to get in close enough as to get hampered ,check that bit out for yourself's to see what you's think of it .But i think he will win
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Hi Lingbleed , Thought Highland Reel could have been fav over winter, the way he beat Hall Of Fame at Gowran is very commendable.surely better value than Gleneagles?
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The most open of Guineas I can remember, I can't separate them or choose with any confidence for varied reasons, ground improvement and potential, but for what it's worth(not a lot) I will list my not so very shortlist down too three.
Zawraq - How likeable is this, ground the major question? Ol'Man River - perhaps hidden slightly from view? Highland Reel - Proven in many ways looks better over the mile. |
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You're looking at 3 Derby horses IMO metro john. Highland Reel I really get the feeling isn't very good. He just doesn't have the profile of a horse that AOB thinks is good IMO. I think he'll turn up in the Dante, the graveyard of AOB 3yo colts.
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Hi sacred kingdom, I would not disagree with your point,but plenty of pace in this race, Estidhkaar beaten at the mile of soft ground(also part of the excuse) Wish OMR would have had a run?, nothing wrong with Highland Reel, that beating of Hall of fame is worth a second look.Obvious ground concern for Zawrak and yes will get 10f easy but is fit if they do decide too take chance,nice Dam line suggests will go on most ground with preference for soft ground perhaps, sire was multi purpose with slight statistical preference for firm ish ground,it may look a poor race on ratings,and below standard, but maybe this is more reason too get excited more by the staying unexposed sort?
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Have not read anything from brigust lately, I hope you are well Sir. Brigust has pointed out in the past is disbelief at the way AOB seems to lack preparation for this early season event, I would tend too agree with brigust.
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The 3yrlds colts I feel will struggle against the older generations later in year and from foreign 3yrlds if they decide too raid,and this is where some may feel more preparation is needed for these early events?(just opinion no insult intended)
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I read something about that the other day. They speculated that AOB undercooks them early doors is because the Guineas is not as marketable as a Derby on a horse's CV. Better to take your time & pick up no wins until a Moulin and QE2 at the end of the year than a Guineas and nothing else thereafter.
I think Gleneagles will be fine. Being a January foal I don't think there'll be too much progression in him, especially given what his dam did, so AOB will probably go all out to get him the Guineas win & then retire? Estidhkaar got beat on soft at HQ in the Dewhurst but he also broke a bone, I forgot which one. I'd disregard the run completely, but he definitely seems to prefer quicker ground I agree. |
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The weather forecast looks good for quick ground sorts,a week later mind there is some rain and thunderstorms around, much will depend upon strength of wind mid next week. What bothers?me about Estidhkaar is the fact he put up fast sectionals from 4f - 7f after being close too pace,would they want too try holding up this sort for the first time/ and will he last out at those paces?
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From a Ratings viewpoint , if there is a 124+ animal in the field,he could quickly pull a couple of lengths clear in the final furlong,many of the leading fancies are exposed over 7f,will they be better over 8f??????
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Territories the new plunge after it was announced he will be supplemented....
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Not really a plunge, someone was trying to lay £1k at about 12.0.
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Metro John, given Estidhkaar stepped up from 6f to 6.5f for his 2nd start, and then up again to 7f for his 3rd start, I'd say a mile will be no problem. Paddock watcher friend of mine says he's a big bull of a horse. Stays.
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Ok then, we'll ignore the fact that it was 33/1 in the shops yesterday (now 8's) and was matched at 250 on here before being removed and reintroduced.
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Estidhkaar is speed , now that was a great run over 7f, can we expect better over 8f? he could be better , related too Toormore, but speed(pace) is very visual.
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Gerard, Territories was 33s with one firm. Then into 14s, now 7s. 888sport & 32red went 12s, everybody else went 8s or lower. He was matched at 250 months ago. He is currently available at double the price most firms are offering. £499 available to back at 15.0. He's not being backed, he's drifting lol.
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Sacred Kingdom , just going back to the horse that beat Estidhkaar,(Muhaarar) his best form was in a group1 sprint, he was beating in a hot listed event on only other try over 7f, and he himself had shown natural speed? Estidhkaar led this horse and yes did stay on better, but speed in race becomes obvious,and not the best guide too 8f(I could be wrong) but either of the front two in greenham could be group1 sprinters.
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But does have his ground,and if ridden in previous style can be expected to open up a gap( in lap of the gods late in the race?)
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Muhaarar maybe just didn't stay 7f at that point of his life, or maybe he did & just got beaten by better horses at the time. Maybe he just loves quick ground. 3rd in the Middle Park & 1st in the Greenham on it.
I think Estidhkaar will stay no problem. Look at the way they rode him in the Greenham. Confidently. |
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I think he will stay,I think he will go very close with different tactics(hold up) but this would be something new, and some just blow up under the fight of restraint? from a punting point of view a nightmare of a horse too be confident about, more waiting tactics could reveal hidden burst of potential speed if settling,maybe a Kingman like burst(once they got their tactics correct). But that 7f form is dubious but for the figures that come out of the race?(I am a figure man)
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The longer you send that grinder type of horse the better.
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11.5 11.3 .11.2 or something like that, I refer you too his 2yrld sectionals pdf issued by turftrax above. Unless he is Frankel these are sprinters closing sectionals, not a grinders.
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Yeah quick grinding horse
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This year looks like a good year for the layers, who must cherish the year ahead, they can have this Guineas, many more races for us too ponder on, Bring on Treve in the Arc
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Metro dont think they can be his last closing sectionals .No horse not even Frankel would clock those as last 3 furlongs @ Newmarket.
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Yeah but Frankel wasn't as good as Estidhkaar is
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