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2000 GUINEAS (2015)

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Replies: 356
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Apr 15 11:43
Well all this talk of Estidhkaar being a sprinter has convinced me to lay off my stake at 8/1 (backed at 25/1).

Just been through some videos of the French form and Territories is definitely interesting but the price is now about right.

I keep coming back to The Wow Signal as being the value at 33/1+ - obviously ran dreadfully on his last start (behind Gleneagles and Territories) but his earlier form is very strong - the Morny win (on unsuitably soft ground?) could hardly have worked out better. Was hugley impressive first time up last year so hopefully he can be fully tuned up on the day. His breeding is nothing fancy and a strange mixture, and there is obviously a strong chance he won't stay a stiff mile.

If he was with a more 'fashionable' trainer he'd be much shorter imo so at the current prices I've had a little bet - come on FrankieGrin.
By:
Sacred Kingdom
When: 24 Apr 15 13:40
Frankie's riding him? Ah wouldn't surprise me if he won it now with the form he's in. Sod it I'll back him too lol. Actually a very good judge of horse I know fancies him too. Good price now. Had £10 at 36+.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 24 Apr 15 13:51
GL SK - Frankie just booted home another winner for me in the first at Sandown, he's red hot.Grin
By:
dtamutants2
When: 24 Apr 15 16:02
Yeah, I'm all over the Wow Signal and have been for a while. If he hadn't run in the Lagadere, he'd surely have to be approaching single figures, and that blatantly wasn't his true running. I have been backing him for a while, think he's a great price.
By:
Sacred Kingdom
When: 24 Apr 15 18:59
A way I thought of betting a few years back was looking at a race completely disregarding the horses' last performances. I think you'd find a lot of value.
By:
metro john
When: 24 Apr 15 19:06
Better include Moheet then ,that was a shocking run, reminds me of NOT.
By:
metro john
When: 24 Apr 15 19:10
We still got the draw too worry about yet.
By:
metro john
When: 24 Apr 15 19:31
https://youtu.be/3ARNQ_C7gBY He never give him a smackCool

https://youtu.be/oSWDFwWAfX8, a good little un, will that action go on firm?

https://youtu.be/M07mwbLk4vc, nice turn of foot and stays.ground no problem.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 24 Apr 15 20:51
Territories would be a very interesting runner if supplemented for our gns.
Looked a shade unlucky in France last yr against the fav & was impressive on his comeback run this yr.
He would be a big player imo.
By:
kincsem
When: 25 Apr 15 06:33
My first bet on the 2000:
Nafaqa ... 300 ... €5.58 ... €1,668.42
Even if he is dead its value. Plain

Estidhkaar is very hard to spell.  He is also a place lay imo.
By:
metro john
When: 25 Apr 15 09:35
Millerracing67, agree on improved form, but not that keen on previous?
By:
Millerracing67
When: 25 Apr 15 11:43
looks a horse that was always going to be better at 3yo imo.
His best 2yo race (Lagardere) was another step forward in form, puts his close to the fav on form, & a strong run race over 1mile as a 3yo looks sure to suit. On what i have seen in our trials over here, i would take him to beat these, AOB runners? will prove to be the main dangers to him imo.
Don't know if Territoties is a defo to be supplemented, but if so, he is a big player in my book.
By:
sinfin
When: 25 Apr 15 12:12
trainer said in post other day 90 percent to b supplemented
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Apr 15 13:08
Territories looks very short to me and his price is based more on the Fabre factor and because no outstanding contender has materialised. Looked to be beaten fair and square by the front two in the Lagardere, which is form I don't rate much in any case. He had four runs as a 2yo, winning once, and looked fairly exposed. He could improve as a 3yo but there's no obvious reason why he should. He won his trial very easily and of course he could only beat what he was up against but it was very weak opposition and the time was poor, nearly three seconds slower than the mediocre looking fillies trial, despite being run earlier in the afternoon, when, if anything, the ground was more likely to be quicker.
By:
Sankara
When: 25 Apr 15 14:00
Not his fault his trial was slowly run Figgis - did well to come from the rear off such a crawl. Might have won the Lagardere but for being hampered (impossible to tell from the French camera angles) and is five times the price of Gleneagles on here.
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Apr 15 14:27
No it certainly wasn't his fault, Sankara, as I said, he could only beat what he was up against. I just don't think the race proved anything other than his well being. He beat a very moderate bunch in the manner his form entitled him to and the time of the race didn't prove anything in regards to improvement. In other words if anybody didn't fancy him last year I don't think his trial would alter that view at all really. Generally I don't think French horses are as hampered by coming from behind off a slow pace as British horses are, as they seem to be trained in that fashion and they get lots of experience running in that style on French tracks, the usual fast pace of the Guineas will be a different scenario. I suppose it depends how highly each punter rates the Lagardere form. I though it was pretty poor stuff for a Gp1, but I'm prepared to be proved wrong.
By:
Sankara
When: 25 Apr 15 14:45
I think he'll need to improve for the fast pace and the mile. But he always stays on well at the finish of his races, and given he's often been keen in his races so far, it could be that the fast pace will be the making of him. While he's better value than the favourite, however, the likes of Celestial Path, Moheet (another who wants a good clip) and Endless Drama look better value overall.
By:
Sacred Kingdom
When: 25 Apr 15 15:13
Lol you're just naming slow horses Sankara

Of course Territories will improve ffs. Horse has had 5 starts! May foal! Ayeer or whatever hacked up on the weekend, clearly a massive improver in last 7-8 months and he's 5!
By:
Sacred Kingdom
When: 25 Apr 15 15:14
Btw have had insurance on Ride Like The Wind at 65 just now as well
By:
Millerracing67
When: 26 Apr 15 10:57
The Lagardere form from last yr is a bit suspect because it was a steady gallop for the 1st few furlongs. The 1st three home are smart imo & its the ones behind them that are flattered by the close proximity to the front 3 imo. Gleneagles, Full Mast & Territories will prove to be smart 3yo over 1mile this season imo, lets see how they fare in their respective 2000gns races before more judgement can be made.
See there has been a bit of ££ on here over the last few days for Ol'Man River for the 2000gns win & place, hope he takes his chance en-route to the Derby, i like him.
By:
G1_Jockey_4
When: 26 Apr 15 11:22
looks like intilaaq is in.....
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Apr 15 12:06
Actually the Lagardere was quite well run and there was nothing wrong with the early pace. The pace was a bit slower midsection but it would be hard to make a case that it was enough to negatively impact the time or form to any great degree. My opinion is the form was compressed simply because none of them are particularly good, in Gp1 terms that is.
By:
twonky
When: 26 Apr 15 12:16
Agree with Figgis, not only with the Lagardare form, but also the Dewhurst. Regarding the Lagardare, the proximity of  perennial dodgepot, War Envoy to the first 3 does not scream classic form. If anything, War Envoy is the 1 most likely to improve, especially considering how much o Brien horses come on for a run. Territories entry scream desperation from the Godolphin camp.

I'm expecting a shock result, and have thrown a few scheckles ew on the Fabre 2nd string, Make Believe. Won his only 2 races at 2 on soft ground at odds on. Will bid to emulate Zafonic and lose the djebel before taking the 2000. There is no better trainer than Fabre at bringing a horse to peak.
By:
Sacred Kingdom
When: 26 Apr 15 12:27
Twonky and Figgis speak the truth IMO!

Make Believe is being aimed at the Jean Prat I believe, Twonky.
By:
Figgis
When: 26 Apr 15 12:35
Twonky, in this kind of situation there is no result that would shock me. I believe Ivawood's best 2yo form is the highest level of form on offer but his trial run was very disappointing and even if he comes on from that we don't know if he'll stay. I'm backing him because I think even with those doubts he still represents some value as the best horse in the race in my opinion, but the bet is more in hope than confidence. The first two in the Greenham showed form that would be good enough to place in an average Guineas, which could be good enough to win in a poor year. However, I have doubts about the winner being as effective over the extra furlong. I have no doubts about the second over 1m, he'd be a solid each way bet as personally I can't see three better than him, but the nagging doubt is both horses appeared to have quite a hard race and I wouldn't take it as a given that they both will replicate that form next time.

This leaves the slowest bunch of horses I've seen in a Guineas for a long time. I wouldn't touch any of them in single figure odds. Of course, I may have underestimated one or two who might prove me wrong and just because a race looks poor on paper beforehand doesn't mean it will turn out to be on the day. Hopefully we'll get a few improvers to make it a quality result.
By:
John.W.Henry.
When: 26 Apr 15 12:40
Tomorrow the picture may be a lot clearer
By:
geoff m
When: 26 Apr 15 12:48
Whats your thoughts on Moheet guys.
Frankie clearly gave him an educational ride and was very tender on him. Despite that thought he ran on and finished remarkably well in the Craven .
I think if hed got stuck into him and ridden him with a view to winning he would have gone very close in a Craven which seems to have been ignored with regards to form
Just think he may be caught out for a bit of toe/experince when push come to shove @ the bushes but @ 33s as Figgis and others have highlighted in a very open year he could nick a place running on.
When I 1st watched the Craven I thought they would go Dante & Derby route but looks like hes going for the Guineas and will be surprised if Frankie picks The Wow Signal over him.
Frankie rode him with an eye to the future and im sure he aint going to give that benefit up to someone else.
War Envoy and Aces who where out of the places finished 2nd and 3rd in the Champagne Stakes. Nafaaqa 2nd in the craven had run Elm Park to a length in the Juddmonte.
So im adding him to the portfolio along with Kool Kompany with a back pre race @ 55s lay in running strategy.
By:
Sacred Kingdom
When: 26 Apr 15 13:32
Paddock watcher friend of mine says Moheet is 12f Listed class. Not sure if he meant that sarcastically, but he doesn't like him, and tbh if he can't beat Kool Kompany over 1m then I'm not sure what he can beat. I'd be stunned if he rode him over The Wow Signal.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Apr 15 14:52
The best outsider for me is Dutch Connection. He broke the track record in the Acomb at York, he's bred for a Guineas mile being sired by Dutch Art, and only 2.5 lengths behind the favourite in Ireland. Deffo overpriced.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Apr 15 14:55
He got walloped by Faydhan at Haydock which doesn't look too good as it was pretty far, 6 lengths, but since stepped up in trip he's been very consisteny, form figs at 7f 113. Should improve for the 8f.
By:
metro john
When: 26 Apr 15 19:40
The day gets closer and I am more drawn too OL´ MAN RIVER, the form of the horses around him does not add up too that much, but neither does any others in the field, he made a big transition from first too second run improved  nearly two stone, and won in style, he stays the mile ,there is more too come, and would be no cert too get 12f, his dam did not and won first time out over 6f,this makes me believe that he will be targeting 8f - 10f events, AOB looked after him,they have been patient,and too be honest I think their other runner Highland Reel(not the fav) a bigger danger than most. I am sol,! bollocks!
By:
metro john
When: 26 Apr 15 19:41
I am sold.
By:
metro john
When: 26 Apr 15 19:57
https://youtu.be/pSzYRo9j7YM      Great name(always was a sucker for a song)CoolLove
By:
bobbyjo
When: 26 Apr 15 20:12
Marvellous !
By:
sinfin
When: 26 Apr 15 23:02
i b surprised if highland reel lines up its very weak on ere and nobody wants it in the place market
By:
Sacred Kingdom
When: 26 Apr 15 23:10
Plus AOB's considering the French Guineas for him LOL #badhorse
By:
unclepuncle
When: 27 Apr 15 10:42
Old Man River looking very likely to take his chance - it didn't do Camelot or Australia's Derby chances any harm so why not - they presumably want to run JFK in the Derrinstown Derby trial.

If Moore is on board I can't see him going off longer than about 6/1.
By:
Sankara
When: 27 Apr 15 10:50
Won't Moore be on Gleneagles?
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Apr 15 13:44
Yep
By:
Michrich
When: 27 Apr 15 13:46
Am I missing something about Territories? A May foal out of sprinting sire who failed to win a group race at 2? The trainer is certainly one too keep on side and both his previous winners of the race won both the Prix De La Salamandre and Dewhurst but this is certainly no Zafonic or Pennekamp and 7/1 looks way too short.
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