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2000 GUINEAS (2015)
2000 GUINEAS (2015)
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Replies: 356
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Hi Figgis , would have too agree the best trial thus far,good pace,good time,but I thought the stamina question not answered by any of these in this contest. I have changed the way I handicap this Year the figures more in line with the official not TF, and I have the race at 120 for the winner,119 the second 109 the third, all placed horses would have needed the run,which I have not equated into my figures in this instance.(best guess) plenty of positives to take out of the race,but possibly better over a shorter trip?
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Hi Millerracing, agree that Ol'Man River does have much more potential than Gleneagles and to be honest I think OMR the best of Aidens raced horses, but they would like some rain too run in the Guineas my guess?,and still very unsure myself as too the quality of the UK form, which I feel Punters could get skint putting too much faith into what went before at this stage.
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Hi, MJ, personally I'd have doubts about the winner being as effective over another furlong but have no doubts at all about the second.
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I also have doubts about the second,just cannot see it sustain effort over further ,whatever they try?, but who will be in the race? so it's possible and a good enough figure in what looks a poor year in the UK,.
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Looks like winner heading for French Guineas
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This horse is catching my imagination at the minute, would prefer testing conditions ,and not certain too turn up? See what you think, big prices available!
https://youtu.be/y19IAi484mM What do you recon figgis? I like. |
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Don't really know what to make of that, MJ, end of year runs in heavy ground can be a bit misleading, particularly for 2yos over one mile. It's the old cliché that he could be anything, going from that to a fast run mile at Newmarket on good to firm ground might come as a bit of a culture shock though, so I think he'll probably be aimed elsewhere.
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Elm Park backers either
a) didnt watch yesterdays gallop b) fell out of love with their money c) havent read he will not run if ground is fast |
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Seems amazing to me that the slow boat Elm Park is a shorter price than Estidhkaar. That will surely rectify itself in the coming days.
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Please with that effort too. As Figgis has pointed out, the only worry would be a semi-hard
 race 14 days before the big one. But Hannon has an excellent record in the Guineas, or the yard does, so i'll put trust in them. Both Canford & Dick Turpin placed after their Greenham run. |
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Added Dutch Connection ew at 33/1. Race looks primed for a shock and his sire was runner-up in the race and DC was only 2.5 lengths behind Gleneagles last time out. Huge discrepancy.
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For me the Greenham was an exceptional, group 1 time performance, on a par with Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs' renewal, also reminiscent of the Craven between Twice Over and Raven's Pass. My worry would be a horse going from that to the Guineas in a couple of weeks. I think Estidhkaar would have a great chance in theory, and if reproducing yesterday's run would come first or second; it's hard to imagine an Irish colt beating that, on all known form, but neither was it possible for me to envisage either of those colts running so well yesterday, both having improved hugely over the winter. Figgis, was your clock not as impressed?
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Backed dutch connection at 350-1 for 6 quid,looks like I,m going to get a run, cant beleive its going to win, but all the fancied horses getting beat or droppimg out.
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really disappointing run from ivawood just never picked up and it wasn't like we could say he shaped liked a sprinter as he was never hard on the snaffle at any point and wouldn't have won at 6 furlongs so it has to go down to be plain disappointing...this guineas is proving very difficult to fathom with a horse heading the market who himself has a lot to prove but may just be a better 3 year old...
faydhan had his bubble burst in the free handicap and like a poster mentioned earlier in the thread it seemed a strange race to pick considering the hype surrounding the colt, i wonder whether the ground was faster than he would care for but we will see next time as he was returning from a problem and hannigan seemed keen to not beat the colt up but like ivawood he was plain disappointing estidhkaar is a game colt and i like him he just keeps finding, shame he couldn't find a tad more yesterday for the punter but the winner was just to good, it is hoped he can progress from this run and if he can he will be a force, his prominent racing style is always going to leave him open to the deep closer but fingers crossed he can progress from this because he is a game likeable colt very tricky race and i'm glad i'm not involved yet |
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thats the worry with estidhkaar.
did he have to have a battle so close to the gunieas? would have been ok imo had he settled in behind and then come with a run like the winner. he made all... the positive being he may have been raced to have got fit which may make him a top grade miler.... be interesting to see what they do with Intilaaq ....will they risk the guineas? id think the derby is more likely for intilaaq but he was superb yesterday.....triple crown tilt? |
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Agree with your view about Ol'Man River M J. In that, of all the 2yo colts of AOB i seen last yr he was the one of star quality about him to my eye. Dont think he wants ease in the ground myself, his second win at 2yo was on fast ground & he travelled like a dream on it (great action) in what was run at a gd gallop from the off that day. He will prob prove to be best at 10f as a 3yo & my well stay the Derby trip (not cert on breeding on dam side).Will be watching the markets on here over the next week or so with a view to how likely he is to run in the 2000gns, personally i think he should, as the 2000gns is still one of the best trials for the Derby & watching him race at 2yo, he is not short of speed.
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Howellsy, I think the conditions for the straight yesterday were the fastest I've known at Newbury. That's not to say that the ground was like a road, it looked very safe to me, and I often think if the ground was too hard it wouldn't be conducive to producing exceptional time performances anyway. I believe when the ground is good to firm then even slight following breezes and humidity can play more of a part than some might imagine. Anyway, yes I have it as a good time performance but a few pounds behind the Dick Turpin and Twice Over trials. Of the four horses involved in the finish of those trials I had all of them running a bit below that next time to different degrees and the same goes for Kingman last year. I think it's very unlikely a race like that will bring any of them on and more often it has a negative effect. However, if one of them could go somewhere near to repeating that form it would take them close if the race turns out to be as ordinary as it looks at this stage. In the future I'd be more inclined to side with the second.
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Hi Millerracing
Not sure about this stamina doubt stuff.mthe dam actually stayed 10.5 furlongs. Being by Montjeu out of mare who stayed 10.5 furlongs makes OlMan River pretty near a certain stayer imo. |
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AOB's only saying he's not sure if OMR will stay for PR & breeding purposes. IMO he looks the Guineas-Derby runner but I doubt there's anything really quality within the AOB Derby horses otherwise they'd be a lot shorter than they are. OMR was still available at 38.0 for the 2000Gns a couple of days ago. Doesn't scream quality to me.
What about Zawraq? Late-April foal but I think he's better than anything else we've seen. Weld likes him a lot. |
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My clock puts yesterday's Greenham just a pound behind Dick Turpin's, and comfortably better than any Craven or Greenham since, better than Twice Over's Craven too.
I backed Estidhkaar @ 14/1 last night and had a few quid on Muharaar @ 40+ on here. I see no reason why the latter shouldn't go for it, other than to keep Hamdan's horses apart. I can understand why they're talking about France for Muharaar, but I'm not prepared to discount him as a non-stayer just yet. He looks to have thrived over the winter. I love Estidhkaar's heart-on-your-sleeve approach - he looks back to a level even better than his Superlative win last year. If he can repeat yesterday's run he must have a great chance in the Gns. |
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Btw my post above refers to the Derby. I'm a Estidhkaar Guineas man. His profile reminds me of Haafhd's. Haafhd even put in a crazy good Craven time en route to winning the Guineas, just as Estidhkaar did. Also EW doubles with Lucida.
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Even though it looks like it could be a mediocre Guineas I still can't bring myself to back any of those that did well in their trials, as even in an ordinary year the winning performance is usually better than we've seen so far and none of those I saw looked like they had any improvement in them. For me the horse that's shown the best career form is still Ivawood. At first I was disappointed with his showing yesterday and even thought he could be a non stayer, but on repeated viewings of the race it would be impossible to say he didn't stay and he was never going to win at any stage. In spite of the Hannon yard's Estidhkaar showing a fair level of form to win the race it still sounds like they think Ivawood is the better horse, as I do.
It wouldn't be the first time trial form was turned around in a Guineas, we had Night of Thunder and Sky Lantern from the same yard recently. Off the top of my head I can also recall Rodrigo De Triano and Sayyedati, also there was Barathea who was beaten by horses he shouldn't have been beaten by in his trial. I can't say I'm confident Ivawood will reverse the form, maybe he just hasn't trained on, but at a double figure price he's worth a shot against this lot and if reports continue to be good and the Guineas remains his target he'll be my bet. |
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I'll also be laying Gleneagles in the win and possibly place market if the field doesn't cut up too much.
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*obviously Estidhkaar did not win the race, but went very close to winning
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did you like ivawood last year for middle park stakes or was it a lay for you on the day? must be well pleased with the price now
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I find 2yos can be more erratic, particularly after running a fast time like Ivawood did in the Richmond, so I don't have too many bets on them, especially at odds of 1/2.
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As more often than is not the case, the market is a good indicator for AOB horses on debut. Due Diligence was weak all day and was a well beaten 4th/5th just now.
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The only two truly 8F style performances of any note for the 2000 Guineas in the trials were both HAMDAN horses ZAWRAQ over in Ireland and ESTIDHKAAR in England.
I would prefer the Irish horse of the two, but not convinced Hamdan will have him running in this. MUHAARAR over 8F would seem to need a bend to give him some scope for using his pace, before stamina runs out so maybe France is the right move. The one I am most interested in, and have been for a month now, is HOOTENANNY, particularly if the ground remains quick for the next fortnight. If it does then the US Breeders Cup winner will most likely drop in price like a cannonball dropped from a helicopter. |
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Hi cryoftruth.
Not saying Ol'Man River wont get the Derby trip, of course he could, his sire is a strong influence for mid-dist, which is why the 2000gns is not yet on the agenda for him, that could well change if he pleases AOB in the next wk or so, every chance he could line-up. His dam was a miler tho (won 2 Gns, nearly 3) Its a wide open 2000gns this year, nothing from the trials has screamed Gns winner to me so far. On Hootenanny deepingfox, i like him, but as a very gd sprinter for this season, looks tailor-made for the new 3yo sprint at Royal Ascot to me, he looks a bull of a 3yo & i think sprint dist will be his thing over here. |
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https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/Sectional-Debrief-Newbury-2000-Guineas-Tips
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With momentum in the betting market likely too gather for Estidhkaar in the coming weeks , I thought it worth reflecting and giving a big thank you on the excellent articles and work by Simon Rowlands and Timeform for the sectional time education they are supplying ,and also the great pdfs supplied by Turftrax.
https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/sectional_debrief_day_three,_newmarket_july_meeting_2014 https://www.timeform.com/racing/Articles/Sectional-Debrief-Newbury-2000-Guineas-Tips http://www.turftrax.co.uk/tracking/NewmarketJuly2014/NMK120714R2_7F.pdf Greenham Video - https://youtu.be/1i_sxgRePbo |
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Timeform Greenham update - https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/ratings-update-greenham-principals-can--be-all-the-rage-in-the-guineas-2042015
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Hootenanny non runner
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Hootenany non runner
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wat happened to hootenanny and wat time was it declared a non runner seems strange
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Sunset glow also out of 1000. Neither appeared to be injured, just a change of plan.
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Estidhkaar well backed today into 8s from 16s which was available after the Greenham.
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sadblokes were best price this morning at 12 but it sure is well supported
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Some money for Dutch Connection today too.
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From the current betting I'd say it looks like at least 3 Ballydoyle runners will be turning up? Highland Reel, Old Man River & Gleneagles.
2 runners last year (3rd & 9th) 3 runners 2013 (5th, 6th + 10th) 2 runners 2012 (1st + 17th) 1 runner 2011 (11th) 2 runners 2010 (6th + 11th) 2 runners 2009 (4th + 5th) 2 runners 2008 (1st + 8th) So basically AOB has a 0% strikerate when running 1 or 3+ in the Guineas since 2008 :D |