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THE DERBY 2014
THE DERBY 2014
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Yes, I imagine Coolmore will dictate a Camelot Derby pace scenario this year, rather than a Ruler of the World one, resulting in what ought to be a foolproof armchair ride.
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Western Hymn is lovely but the key to his Derby is whether he settles straight out of the gate. He has the turn of foot but he has not yet looked 100% convincing with his stamina.
Australia is the one to beat- his Guineas 3rd is possibly the best form IF you take the view he will improve at a mile and a half in line with his breeding. However, I still think there are doubts to be had. Kingman didn't necessarily stay a mile, Night Of Thunder might not back up the form. There wasn't a great distance between the front 5 or 6- maybe the form isn't that great. Free Eagle might not have been anything special either. ORCHESTRA had Scotland and the 97 rated Seagull Star around 7-10L back which around Chester is a considerable margin. That was also his first run of the season and he can step forward from that for an each way shout at Epsom, especially is kept in a straight line! Geoffrey Chaucer would have beaten that field today with a penalty and on first run with luck in running, and with improvement to come, he too would be in the shakeup. |
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I wasn't disappointed with Geoffrey Chaucer. It wasn't a race to bet in for me and I have lost confidence in AOB's ability to get horses ready to run first time up and his son's ability to nick the few percentage points he then would require to win. I know he gets first time out winners but I suspect they are far enough in front to win anyway.
It certainly is a positive for Australia in my view as his other horses have given very little reason to think he is accurate on last year's assessment of his top horse and is horses are winning so infrequently it at least augurs well for Australia improving a great deal and at the moment I think it is Australia's to lose. A potentially top class miler who looks certain to stay. I's not rocket science I know. |
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I thought that was a pretty encouraging run from Geoffrey Chaucer personally, even allowing for the fact JOB is not up to a job of Ballydoyles standing. The doubt is whether he even runs at Epsom or is re-routed to France. He did travel like the best horse and does look quite classy. He is a Monjeu half-brother to Shamardal, nice breeding!
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Be surprised if any of the field go to Epsom and even more surprised if they get anywhere close.
Happy to be wrong of course.  |
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I can agree with the French Derby 1st June for GC then followed by the Irish Derby. I will be staggered if AOB sends Australia for the Irish Derby as t's propensity for soft ground and his best horses dislike of same. I hope he goes Eclipse, King George and Arc. That would be a real statement and at the moment looks very possible.
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I too was really interested in GC today but have to say I am surprised that nobody seems impressed by the winner Fascinating Rock (albeit in the stewards room), I for one was extremely taken with it's performance and will be amazed if GC will reverse form over 2 Furlongs more at Epsom.
FR was held up at back off a slow pace and travelled into race like a class act but Ebanoran was allowed first run and Smullen was a bit over confident. Think the horse is improving at a rapid rate and although Australia is still the one to beat I think it will go very close at Epsom. |
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even if the Irish Derby is decent ground they still go a different route with Australia,the race seemed to mess up Camelot and that could be fresh in their minds,if GC goes to France I'll certainly be backing him for the Curragh,did same with Cape Blanco few years ago..
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The time for the race was very poor, equivalent to over half a furlong short of what would be necessary to even think of going to Epsom, Chantilly or the Curragh.
I accept that AOB`s horses can improve but not for me. |
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hope something comes out of the dante, because imo its looking a renewal lacking star quality
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Australia was pushed hard in the Guineas, Geoffrey Chaucer wasn't driven to the line in a slow Derrinstown.
I think Geoffrey Chaucer will be fresher for his next race. |
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A shocking trial and such a big negative,very disappointed with GC,original enthusiasm of mine nowupside down(such is racing),GC at best a St leger horse,and that is on the optimistic side.
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just had a look away from the market leaders,in the Derby,and one of the Aga khans called Sinkal does catch the eye at a very big price,looks to be a stayer,won and form working out ok,you could do worse at current price and possibly trade out later?
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All of O'briens comical excuses and hype over the years, and now it's all rolled into one for the derby. I must admit that i used to get irritated, but now i just see the funny side.
 http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9308420/aidan-obrien-is-excited-by-the-derby-prospects-of-australia |
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A son of Galileo out of the brilliant racemare Ouija Board, Australia burst onto the scene with a scintillating victory at Leopardstown last September and despite his stout breeding, was strongly fancied for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket earlier this month.
Although he came up short on the Rowley Mile, beaten three-quarters of a length into third, he ran a perfect trial for Epsom and he is highly likely to be a strong favourite on the Downs next month. O'Brien has saddled four previous Derby winners in Galileo (2001), High Chaparral (2002), Camelot (2012) and last year's hero Ruler Of The World. Camelot had previously won the Guineas and almost went on to complete the triple crown in St Leger, but O'Brien feels Australia is even better. Speaking at a press morning at Ballydoyle, the trainer said: "He's a Derby horse we've not had the like of before. I thought Camelot was the best horse we had for the Derby, but this horse is another step up. "I've never had a horse like this. I'm not trying to blow him up, I'm just saying how it is. For a horse by Galileo to be doing what he's doing, we've never had that before. "The reason we were excited before the Guineas (was that) his lead horse was Oklahoma City and he was treating him with contempt every day. "Even in March and April, he was doing half-speeds with horses he shouldn't have been able to go with. When Frankie (Dettori) was over last year, he jumped off the ground after he sat on him." It has been a slow start to the season for Ballydoyle team, with O'Brien revealing some of his string were under the weather earlier in the year. For that reason, he is expecting Australia to improve considerably for his comeback run at Newmarket. "At the start of the year we were struggling a bit, it hasn't been straightforward. We had a bit of a cough around for a long time. I think it's more or less gone now, we're happy with where the horses are now. We've trained our way gently through it," said the trainer. "If the horses are going to a Classic, they have to run in a prep race. We're not complaining about it, everyone gets a run of it sometimes. "Australia was sick six weeks before the Guineas - he was probably the first horse to show signs of the cough and then it spread like wildfire through the yard." Thanks for sharing that information before the horses ran Aidan. Clearly still thinks the world of Australia. If he really did have the cough 6 weeks before the Guineas, he really could turn out to be very good |
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Beat me to it Graeme
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Classic stuff from Aidan - the best horse ever seen at Coolmore gets beat by a 40/1 rag and so the Coolmore excuses start to come.
 Still a worthy hot favourite for the Derby but I do wish they would just let the horse do the talking on the track and then let other, better qualified people, decide how highly he rates afterwards.  |
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If Aus had the cough 6 weeks prior, and it ''spread like wild fire'' according to AOB, then surely others horses of his will improve a ton, too.
I go with the sentiment on here though, it just sounds like more b0llox. The horse has run a good race. Lets wait and see him run a GREAT race. |
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If they set the race up correctly for Australia with a good early pace I see him being a wide margin winner, then everything they've said about him will begin to look vindicated. That's when the hype will really go into overdrive. Lots of wide margin Derby winners look superstars on the day but mostly it's just due to beating up a bunch of moderate/non staying horses in a fast run race.
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the irony is that whilst I was inclined to disbelieve most of the Australia hype from his trainer since last year, I am inclined to believe Aidan re the Derby because of the specific information he has given.... and that the horse has now actually proved himself Group 1 class in the Guineas and bound to be suited by further.
Actually naming who his lead horse was (not thrashing War Command or an older Group class sprinter as some had suggested)... and stating when he suffered from a cough is much clearer info than the vague plaudit "this is the best we've ever had". Though it is interesting Aidan says he "trained our way gently through it"..... that doesn't seem to fit with the idea that he was doing decent work in blowing Oklahoma City away unless the latter was being sent up the gallops on his death bed. Even more amazing is that the antepost market knew nothing about the cough whatsoever? If it hadn't been for Kingman's Greenham win, Australia might have gone off near even money on Guineas day. |
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do you think australia will go off odds on for the derby?, and what ratings did you have for last years 1st and 2nd ROTW and
libertarian, before the derby? would be very interested in your ratings on the day for that race. |
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Pedro - wannae buy a bag of sand for £500 ? it's not just any old sand, if you sprinkle it on your face you'll look 20 years younger.
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Well said Pedro.
I have always believed if AOB truly believed what he was saying about Australia he would back his words up with his actions. That would mean he would have to run him in the 2000 Guineas. He did just that and I have to say I was disappointed with his run and have looked for reasons why he didn't win. The form of his horses was one reason and the way the race was run was another. I also thought he had erred by not giving him a prep run when all of his dangers had one therefore making his task much harder. Now the fog is clearing. AOB had intended to give him a prep run but a cough prevented him. Having been associated with both the 'cough' and the 'virus' AOB did exactly the right thing by taking things easy. Over doing him may have had seriously negative effects. And of course hough 'cough' is a nuisance I can see why there were no significant changes in the ante post book and why Australia looked OK but not great in his Curragh workout. All of the balls are now falling into place and it looks like time to go to war. I had already backed him after is Guineas 3rd and was thinking about laying off but this time I will let it run. Get on ffs. |
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If the horses are going to a Classic, they have to run in a prep race. We're not complaining about it, everyone gets a run of it sometimes.
Didn't stop him winning 6 2000 Gns with horses FTO in the past Australia was sick six weeks before the Guineas - What was he doing running him in the Guineas then? I respect Australia's chance - he's bred for the trip and finished 3rd in the Guineas, almost the perfect prep - but the fact of the matter is that his on-track perfomences are some way behind the hype. Beaten 2 out of 4 now and still not won a G1. Still, on the form he has shown he deserves to be favourite but 6/4 is awfully short. The BM's cleaned up in the Gns with 2 hype horses and it looks as though they will try for another pay day in the Derby. I wouldn't write down the Derrinstown myslef. OK, not fast time but you had staying types sprinting and they finished ina good fraction. I liked the look of Weld's horse but he's had 3 runs this temr now so I wonder just ho much improvement he can make again. Might be more improvement in the other two. Let's see what the Dante brings because the French don't seem to have much for the race. |
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I think a bag of anything would make me look younger, Graeme
roadrunner, pre-race last year's Derby rated pretty poor with me outside the top pair: 117 - Dawn Approach (12th) 112 - Battle Of Marengo (4th) 102 - Chopin (7th) 101 - Libertarian (2nd) 97 - Ruler Of The World (1st) 95 - Ocovango (5th) |
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Even in March and April, he was doing half-speeds with horses he shouldn't have been able to go with.
This does suggest he may have been working with sprinters, but we don't know how good they are. As for the War Command rumours, just because the rumours were that he was outperforming WC on the gallops doesn't mean that he was specifically racing against him. If the horses are going to a Classic, they have to run in a prep race. This has to be the biggest slice of garbage in the whole piece, since when did Coolmore's strong Guineas fancies have to run in a prep race? I don't doubt there was a cough but it seems unlikely it was ever regarded as anything that would seriously upset Australia's preparation. None of this really means anything to me. The horse showed he was potentially very good last year. The 'best ever' comments from O'Brien can be rightly viewed with scepticism, but I think we can take it that they rated him up with some of their better runners from the past, whether that would be shown on the track was still to be proved. The real evidence is the Guineas run and how high you rate it. While I don't think it was an exceptional standard set by the milers, I believe it was a high standard for a horse very likely to stay 12f. For me, he's already good enough to be an above average Derby winner. |
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Sandown when you are an old man like me
 you with reminisce about the horses you have backed and the champions you have. This could be one of those moments. I have been to the funeral so I do not intend missing the wedding. If it goes pear shaped then so what but all of the clues are there and if you are not on board for the launch you will look back and regret it forever. This could just be one of those major racing moments we all live for but come along so rarely. |
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Sadly you are wrong there Fig. Even Hannon said he would give his horses a prep run specifically because of the edge it gives a horse. I thought a long time ago he would give him a prep run and was disappointed he didn't but now I know the reason why.It all fits.
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O'Brien's Guineas winners that had no prep 6, O'Brien's Guineas winners that had a prep 0.
Happily, brig, I know I'm right |
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brig, the stats are 27-28 of Hannon's Guineas runners since 1995 and before 2014 had a trial (for 6 places).... and O'Brien was 4-35 (only 1 place, but 6 winners and two 2nds with the layoffs)
They have very different methods of preparing horses for the Guineas which clearly works for both of them. Australia was never going to have a trial even without a cough, especially given the likely long season he has ahead of him. |
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Even Hannon said he would give his horses a prep run specifically because of the edge it gives a horse
Why even Hannon? He always gives his a prep. Some trainers have the ability or the preference to get them ready at home, and all the evidence is O'Brien can when he has the horse, other trainers choose to ready them on the racecourse. |
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Brig hanging on AOB's every word again. It all fits, hallelujah!
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Btw, Geoffrey Chaucer '' readily '' beat Oklahoma City in the Beresford Stakes, as did Kingston Hill in the Autumn Stakes.
FFS, we're back to square 1 again with this latest round of comments. |
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how comes you rated ROTW so low, just checked his top speed was miles ahead of every other horse in the race on the day, excluding DA which was never going to stay that trip. my antepost bet was on libertarian 25/1 based solely on his dante performance, first time had
really looked at the derby from a form point of view, was told before the race, that you need a horse with gears. other than that on the day, if you would of been backing anything else, would of been best advised to choose one of the irish coolmore types, only one that was a standout was the winner, taking in all percieved wisdom about the types that win that race. realized afterwards how wrong was in selecting the 2nd. |
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If he wins the Derby, as I expect him to, I do hope people don't start trotting out the 'He could've won the Guineas too if he'd had a prep, hadn't had a cough, etc, excuses'. He might go on to be a middle distance champion but he's no Sea The Stars, who incidentally also went there without a prep.
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https://soundcloud.com/sportinglife/aidan-obrien-investec-derby
Audio interview with AOB. |
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 Pedro....my point being is that it's very gullible to believe any old spiel that O'Brien says. The horse got beat fair and square. You only have to look at him saying he's a class above Camelot. All of O'briens good horses are a good class above Camelot, who got beat by not great horses, quite easily. Australia ran a good Derby trial on quick enough ground over that trip, and he deserves respect. True Story looks like a good horse to me, and today i've backed Orchestra at 20/1, which i think is over priced as i think he has good credentials, and my opinion is that he's over priced. |
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brigust1
This could just be one of those major racing moments we all live for but come along so rarely. Sadly, getting revved up about a 6/4 shot for a race 3 weeks hence doesn't do it for me brigust1. Even if I back it on the da, its not going to change my lifestyle. 12/1 last year about ROTW was more like it but it wasn't my only bet in the race.Back in the day getting the Gallileo/Imagine double at something like 40/1 did have a profound effect. Incidentally, if Australasa had an excuse, I guess WC did as well |