Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1249 comments are related to the topic:
THE DERBY 2014
THE DERBY 2014
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,249
|
By:
Free Eagle thumped Orhcestra on debut. Shame he's injured.
|
|
By:
cheers Miller.
|
|
By:
No probs.
Is Free Eagle out for the season?? Looking forward to seeing how Geoffrey Chaucer has done over the winter on Sunday. Gd call to bypass the Fr 2000gns with him, he never struck me as that type of horse, more a real mid-dist 3yo imo. Will be hoping for a gd solid 1st run this wkend from him. |
|
By:
Trainer has just said he'll miss the English and Irish Derby thus far.
|
|
By:
Shame
 |
|
By:
SG, possibly the ground hadn't slowed by the time of the Vase but even without that I have it as a good time. Personally I think accurate standards at Chester are tricky due to rail movement, the way wind affects the course and the better meetings often being run with cut in the ground. I'm also a bit sceptical about one or two of the advertised distances. I have Tres Coronas running to his mark and Noble Mission consolidating his good Sandown figure, improving just 1 pound on that. As I said, I don't see Orchestra troubling Australia but I think he's definitely in with a shout of a place.
|
|
By:
The info for the rail movements is on the bha site which makes things easier. There was an 14y extra for 1st 2 races and 20y for 3rd race, so I added on 0.85 to my standards for 1st 2 races and 1.2 for 3rd race. I do think the winner is potentially going to be a good horse and the 2nd will be ok but it was a very weak renewal imo. If O'brien wasn't bringing horses over for the vase then the standard would drop even further which is a shame as I think chester is a good track for educating a horse and the Vase used to be a decent trial many years ago. I was hoping it was going to be stronger after ROTW won it last year but today's race was of a pretty poor standard.
|
|
By:
No, I mean rail movements from the past make it difficult to formulate accurate standards. The RP ones looked questionable the last time I looked.
|
|
By:
SG, so do you have a poor time for Noble Mission? I had him running a solid Gp3/borderline Gp2 time at Sandown and the same today.
|
|
By:
ah yes I see what you mean.
It took me a while to sort out my own standards there, I did use RP ones there for the start of the meeting last year and the 11f fillies race had a big figure so I went back through past years and same thing occurred a couple of times so ended up doing my own. Though they do look to have changed theirs a bit since last year. I also got a racecard when I went there yesterday and they had standards on there for each race which seemed more in keeping with mine than the RP ones but I don't know whose standards they were. |
|
By:
Yes similar to you figgis a g3 figure but looking at the sectionals I do believe it can be marked up a fair bit too as he went too quick so he could be close to G1 class. Though will he need soft ground?
|
|
By:
Looking at his past form I don't believe he does need soft ground, I just think he's improved as a 5yo. I'm a great believer in there only being so much petrol in the tank unless a horse is continually improving, though, and looking at what he did at Sandown and again today I think he might've peaked and today was the day to be with him, I wouldn't take a short price next time.
|
|
By:
Figgis, just looking through the timeform results today and their form rating for NM is 130 today with a 123 for Telescope in 2nd.
|
|
By:
Mine's a different scale but looks a bit high from what I know of their scale.
|
|
By:
Mind you, I have been guilty of overrating Telescope in the past myself
 |
|
By:
Don't remind me figgis, doing my money on that one at odds on at Haydock wasn't one of my better bets but I was convinced by my figure at the time.
|
|
By:
Change is constant,http://io9.com/how-bayes-rule-can-make-you-a-better-thinker-471233405
|
|
By:
metro john
Perhaps brigust1 should learn about Bayes theorem  |
|
By:
Shame that the ground has turned soft at Chester this wk
 Hopefully its not the same at Lingfield & York mext wk.Sure we will see Telescope in a better light over 1m4f on faster ground. |
|
By:
Actually I do know of Bayer's theorem but prefer to back horses on my own judgement not on probabilities. And I certainly cannot understand anyone wanting to refer to a list of figures to decide whether or not to have a bet. Each to his own I suppose.
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
Dwelt, held up in last, reminder over 3f out, shaken up and progress when not clear run over 1f out, ran on final furlong to take 2nd last 50yds.
Now exercise your your thinking, and guess the jockey? |
|
By:
Looking forward to seeing the Derby Winner during the footy half time interval today.
|
|
By:
My girlfriend is currently teaching Geoffrey Chaucer to her students so I included him in one of my TTF lists. If he loses i'll blame her.
 |
|
By:
really looking forward to seeing geoffrey chaucer today...have put a lot of time into him as originally thought he maybe a bet in the derby...
am praying i am right and have read him right and he isn't good enough, as he was the only priced horse i liked, just cannot figure him out yet but for those that are on, hope i have read him wrong and he is good enough...best of luck today for his followers |
|
By:
I really can't see Geoffrey Chaucer improving enough to get close to Australia but I expected him starting a short priced favourite today so he's a touch of value here, even with the 3lb penalty. Fascinating Rock is on a winning roll and I don't really know how good he could be, but I thought this year's Ballysax was a crap race. In recent years I've seen countless Weld runners looking good in poor races but unable to deliver against better opposition.
|
|
By:
I really can't see Geoffrey Chaucer improving enough to get close to Australia but I expected him starting a short priced favourite today so he's a touch of value here
agree figgis thought he would be favorite and ground ideal here...like you say a tad of value but i have to watch him first as just cannot get a solid angle on him and the 3lbs penalty and race fitness just enough to hold me back today...but like you say punters are getting the right price |
|
By:
GC disappointing even allowing that it was first time out, there wasn't much pace and he carried a penalty. From what I could see he didn't look to have grown since last year. Poor race. This year's Derby looks in danger of becoming the most uncompetitive I can remember.
|
|
By:
well that wasn't a pretty ride from o'brien...
not sure what to make of that in regards his true ability, as was crunched when making ground off of a slow pace and would of been difficult to say he certainly would of been beaten...so more questions and we wanted answers |
|
By:
Went an absolute dawdle which played into the hands of the timed horse Ebanoran
.Geoffrey Chaucer probably would have won given a proper gallop but a bit of non event re a Derby Trial. |
|
By:
I think it can be categorically said that Geoffrey Chaucer would have won that race today without traffic problems. He travelled like the best horse and to be held in not once but twice was horrendous.
I'd certainly be taking him to Epsom but I think Aiden O'Brien will do something stupid as he always does when juggling his options and probably leave either Geoffrey Chaucer or Orchestra at home. Both of them look lovely middle distance types to me and both will come on considerably for a run. AND crucially one of them will have Ryan Moore on. |
|
By:
JOB shows once again if his Dad wasn't a trainer he would be doing something else. I complete victim of circumstance once again.
|
|
By:
They`ve given it to the favourite
 |
|
By:
That was a walking race that developed into a barging match, a bit like queuing for the January sales and then the door opens.
|
|
By:
ladblokes pushed true story out to 7 now and they way to big at 16 western hymn surely
|
|
By:
Never had you as an armchair jockey Brig, very sad.
|
|
By:
Was thinking the same
Western Hymn 16-1 Is Gosden raving about this hoss? Or because his wife owns 50% hes keeping a low profile? |
|
By:
I agree with brig, a 'victim of circumstance' again but really it was due to a poor ride, why you would want to be the last jockey to make your move in a race run at a crawl beats me. Nevertheless I'm not really sure he'd have won anyway. You certainly couldn't write him off until he's seen in a truly run race, but personally I'm writing off his Derby chances and I was more impressed with Orchestra as a Derby second string.
|
|
By:
I assume Joseph O'Brien will ride Australia in the Derby.
|
|
By:
Of course.
|