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THE DERBY 2014
THE DERBY 2014
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I think quicker ground and longer distance are both positives,on breeding,but many a well bred son of gun ran like snails!
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Well we already know it is no snail.
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Ignoring the breeding, I thought he looked like a galloper, he was niggled along a bit and he came with a sustained run without quickening like Kingman and I reckon he'd have carried on galloping all day. But then again I thought NOT was a sprinter. So I could be wrong on this one too.
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Until he actually races over 1m4f in the Derby, nothing is certain.
Breeding would say he should have no probs with it. Should gd class mile speed in the 2000gns for how he is bred, which is a gd sign imo. Looks the one they all have to beat atm, hence his price, which I think is a bit short at 7/4 imo, Sea T Stars won the 2000gns & was not made that short  |
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There was more of a stamina doubt with Sea the Stars. Australia should stay no problem in my view but you can never be absolutely certain until they actually do.
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The sire of Australia won the derby and his dam won the oaks.
His three siblings all stayed 1m4f and his full sister stayed 1m6f. Plus he has a very relaxed way of going and looks a straight forward ride. He should be a much better horse up to a mile and a half, although nothing can ever be guaranteed. He is bred to win the derby, the fact he has run so well in the 2000g is testament to how good he is. |
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Pedro ,
After Researching the breeding of night of thunder It seems you and others who think he will stay twelve furlongs are probably on the money ,,,you only got to persuade the Trainer now , needs to storm away with Irish guineas then trot up in Dante to book his ticket , but tell me what was that wandering across the Track all about?? |
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when I looked at his (NOT's) breeding I reckoned he had about an evens chance of staying 12 furlongs well (maybe slightly better); a doubt though.
I think they should go for it; but doubt they will. |
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Mac99
I don't think he has done it before so possibly he just saw something on Guineas day? I think it was mentioned he may have saw the chute where they go back to the stables. It also may have just been the fact that with Newmarket being so wide & open that when Fallon pulled him out he just felt he needed to be with other horses and drifted across. In regards to Australia I'd be stunned if he didn't stay. |
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mac, I just assumed Night Of Thunder got unbalanced by his jockey under a right hand drive. Could be totally wrong though.
I'm surprised at the Hannons not appearing to have the Derby under consideration given they've probably never had anything remotely good enough to win it before. Especially as they have plenty of ammunition for the Group 1 mile events this season, will just end up running against each other. If Night Of Thunder doesn't stay, can always drop back in trip later on. |
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I could be wrong here but before the Greenham
the Hannon's thought that NOT if they had a Derby horse,was it.Sure I read that somewhere. |
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I think Bunker is their Derby hope.
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The Dante ,Derby route may indeed be the best option for NOT , If he goes for the Irish Guineas then SJP, there is a chance he would meet Kingman again at Ascot .
That event might well be a seven or eight runner race, run at a much less severe pace than the Guineas he could well be trounced for speed late on in that scenario , so strategically thinking a shot at the Dante could be tempting and then on to the Derby , quite a few ifs buts and maybes in the above , but who knows ? |
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Why the doubt about True Story getting the Derby trip? The Dam won over 1 mile five furlongs, that should be a pretty good guide
to his staying credentials. Kieren Fallon is adamant True Story will stay the mile-and-a-half trip in the Investec Derby at Epsom on June 7. |
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Several factors against NOT heading down the Derby route.
1.Started him off at 6f which is usually sign of seeing horse as speed horse 2. trainer comments after first wins suggested that they saw him as a Gns horse 3. His turn of foot at the end of gns was exceptional for the race and I would be doubtful about a stayer showing that. If he does stay then he would have to be very very good. Possible? So, although his breeding suggests that he should stay, he doesn't seem to be running to his breeding. The mile races are his to lose so its a bigger risk to go further if there are doubts. |
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Dawn Approach went for it last year and I know it's easy to say now but he probably had more stamina concerns than Night Of Thunder, however he still came back after the Derby and won the SJP and was 2nd in the Sussex Stakes. Is there that much to lose if they try and fail?
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If anyone bought the RP today can they post Saeed Bin Surour's comments about Be Ready from the stable tour please. He must be a possible Derby candidate.
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could be aimed at the F2000G(God' website)
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His turn of foot at the end of gns was exceptional for the race and I would be doubtful about a stayer showing that. If he does stay then he would have to be very very good. Possible?
Sandown, a speed horse in Kingman finished 2nd and was decelerating up the hill in the final furlong A middle distance horse in Australia finished 3rd running an identical race to the speed horse, almost certainly slowing down at the finish Obviously being uphill in final furlong sees the slowest furlong sectional of the race, but how categorical are you that the winner showed a "turn of foot", by which I assume you mean accelerated.... or just that he maintained the solid gallop to the line and saw out the mile better than anything else by staying? |
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pedrobob
how categorical are you that the winner showed a "turn of foot", by which I assume you mean accelerated.... or just that he maintained the solid gallop to the line and saw out the mile better than anything else by staying? NOT finished the last 2f in a faster average time than he did for the previous 6f which is my test for finishing "fast" and he did so in a faster time than any 2000 Gns winner in the past 10 years. In fact, if I look back over all the 2000 gns winners which I have in my data bank the only winners which I can find which finished faster than NOT (adjusted for going allowance) were Zafonic,Kings Best, Henrythenavigator all of which were milers. There was one very fast time, faster even than those and that was Dancing Brave BUT I have very slow early fractions for that race and you can then expect a fast finish. So, is NOT another Dancing Brave? All of those who went on from winning the Gns and ran in the Derby and won STS,Nashwan, Nijinsky (apart from DB) showed a much closer even pace throughout when winning. I will lay NOT if he runs in the Derby and is short price.For certain. |
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I know that NOT's breeding suggests that he will stay but look at the breeding of Terrific today. Dosage suggests she should stay 12f but she deosn't get more than 10f shouldn't think
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Thanks Penzance but I think there was a stable tour in today's RP so wonder what the latest news was..
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NOT finished the last 2f in a faster average time than he did for the previous 6f which is my test for finishing "fast"
Sandown, is it fair to compare with the previous 6f average when James W i l l o w b e e says you have to add 3 secs for the first furlong from a standing start? I could accept a comparison with the previous 5f. |
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sloane avenue running in dee stakes tomorrow
looked very much in need of experience first time...be interested to see how he progresses, looks a very nice colt |
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pedrobob
I could accept a comparison with the previous 5f. Maybe but the only distance where it it materially affects things is 5f and maybe 6f which I allow for in my projection formula. 8f trip is reliable. I may take a look at this but you know 3 secs adjustment is arbitrary - will vary with trip/class - and it could create as many problems as it solves by making an adjustment. Anyhow, my conclusions do not change re NOT.I will give it some thought, nevertheless. |
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I'd be very surprised if NoT could get 10f as a 3yo in Gp1 company, let alone 12f.
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Geroffrey Chaucer runs in the Derrinstown at Leopardstown on Sunday. A positive for a Derby run I think (if he performs).
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yes should definitely find out more about him sunday...he has to carry a penalty so it won't be easy
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Sloane Avenue is a non runner, looks a poor dee stakes really.
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yep agree poor race...shame about sloane avenue...i like him
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I've only come up with a 98 speed figure for Orchestra there, think he can improve a fair bit but it's hard to see him being up to derby class imo.
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Ground getting progressively softer, I have provisionally rated it a good trial, nothing to worry Australia but would give the first two place prospects if they come out of the race well.
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More so the winner, as I'm not sure the second would get so close on another day.
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I don't think the ground is getting worse, the 7f hcap just run suggests it's not imo.
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ground going to get worse for these last 3 races though as pouring down now
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lightning and heavy showers there now, glad I didn't go today
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I have the handicap definitely slower than the first 2 races, either that or they went slower than I thought, but I doubt it.
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I had the times getting progressively slower for this card last year but I've used same allowance for 1st 4 races this year and I think my figures look ok.
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I hand timed last 3f sectionals for 1st 3 winners
39.37 42.25 39.02 most notable is that they went too quick in the Noble Mission race which backs up the visuals. |
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Sint: Be Ready. RP Stable tour S Bin Suroor.
He has worked well since (his comeback run)No probs with his heart beat since. If he continues to please us we`ll send him for the Fr 2000gns. He shows enough speed for the mile but I think he can step up to 10f. Seems he is working well after the Craven race. |