Also worth reading.

https://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/respect-the-ballydoyle-derby-favourite-but-dont-be-blin-020610.html

Even if I back it on the da, its not going to change my lifestyle. 12/1 last year about ROTW was more like it but it wasn't my only bet in the race.Back in the day getting the Gallileo/Imagine double at something like 40/1 did have a profound effect.




this is what is known as aftertiming sandown...

smugness like this and regular aftertime posts from feltfair are not necessary imo

no offence by the way

Sin when you see something flashing past you don' worry. It is the 'point' and you just missed it again.

Pedro this horse was 'retired' early last so I did say I thought he  would have a prep run.I guess most of the other horses you are talking about finished later in the season whereas some,like Rip Van Winkle should have had a prep run.

I think it is far too early to say he is 'no Sea The Stars' Figgis. If he is definitely the best horse they have had and RVW wasn't that far behind STS then there is still everything to play for.

And Sandown it isn't about the price. That's completely missing the point.

Sad you never took his advice Sin. But an old dog and all that eh?

I think it is far too early to say he is 'no Sea The Stars' Figgis.

It's not, he hasn't won the Guineas, or shown the same level of form in the Guineas, obviously he won't get another chance. He's also not going to be asked to race at a mile again, so will never show he had the speed to beat his generation at distances between 1m and 12f.

I never took his advice in the Guineas, either, Brig. I did the complete opposite as you know and layed the sucker.

I believe Aidan (cough).

brigust1

If I remember Frankel started long odds on many times so it wasn't about the price at all.


You old romantic brigust1.Again, sadly, my interest is evenly balanced between the horse for its own sake and the betting opportunity. Which is why I might well end up laying Australia.

ROTW his top speed has improved now to 117, so topspeed still rated him 2nd best on the day, yet everyone was saying how slow libertarian was and didnt have much chance of placing, yet the ratings had them only 5 points apart on the day. thought he
would of had a much better rating for ROTW on the day after impressing at chester, seems they were all closely rated on the day.
will see what they come up with this year regarding the topspeed ratings on the day.

If Australia wins the Derby I wonder about the longevity of his career at the top. He's already run a hard fast race in the Guineas. I suspect they'll set up a fast race for him in the Derby. Sure, it would be nice if they could give him an easy time quickening up off a moderate gallop but I don't think that can be risked when you believe you've got the best horse in the race certain to stay.

Camelot's best form was curtailed after doing the Guineas/Derby double and having another hard race in heavy ground in the Irish Derby. I also remember hearing Willie Carson say Nashwan was knackered after the Eclipse, after he'd also done the Guineas/Derby double. He decided to set the King George up as a slowly run race as he knew Nashwan could still sprint for a couple of furlongs but thought he'd be vulnerable in another race run at a good overall gallop.

Sea The Stars' form didn't suffer at all after doing the double, but his Derby was quite slowly run, and you often felt the horse was probably running a little within himself when winning. I think it's a lot harder for a Derby winner to maintain its form through the course of a season when it has run to a high level in the Guineas, rather than given the easier option of winning a Derby trial. For me, it's going to be difficult for Australia to prove he's their 'best ever'.

I can't believe no member of the press was informed of the cough in the yard,ffs,how bad is AOB with public relations.

MJ a cough is not the virus. You can work through a cough but usually with a virus you have to stop altogether. Many yards have a cough at one time or another during the season.

No, brig, you will, I don't judge form purely on the names of the races won

He could have missed the guineas and gone to Dante if worried?

You can fall back on that old chestnut if you like Fig but the facts of the matter are that Delegator won 3 times from 14 subsequent starts where he beat Jaasoos (no wins from 12 starts), Regal Parade ( a conditions stakes and a handicap win from 39 starts) and Sir Gerry ( no wins from 8 starts) so the names of the races doesn't matter at all.
He also beat Gan Amras who subsequently won nothing.
So when you consider Night of Thunder and Kingman have won three each and been 2nd only to each other then they are unbeaten except by each other then who knows what the future holds.

Joseph O'Brien appeared to hit Australia eight times in the final furlong of the 2000 Guineas, and didn't get a great response.  Is Australia a bottle of smoke?

No but Mill Reef did so lets not eh? In My Swallow's defence he only ran twice more finishing 2nd to Faraway Son in a Group 1 and 2nd in the July Cup. As there were no other Group 1 races left for him without taking on either Faraway Son (who then won three of his next 4 runs and his only defeat was by BG in the Sussex Stakes or BG himself then the only option he had was retire to stud. There wasn't the masses of Group races then that there are today. 
It was you who used the STS comparison and I only countered by saying the Guineas STS won looks less hard than Australia's Guineas at this moment in time. If it all falls to bits then so be it.

Fig Delegator ran 14 times subsequently. So he had every opportunity to prove his worth even dropping to handicap company. This is silly.
The 4th and 5th you are on about were AOB's and clearly improved for the run so you are now getting into a debate that is unbecoming.

My point is that Australia's third place may in future not look that bad and may well compare favourably with STS's Guineas which, no matter how you dress it up wasn't his finest hour. I'm not sure how the official ratings compare but I suggest even with the others not running again as yet I'm sure they won't be too far apart.
And if he does go through the season winning the races I think he can and the horses that beat him in the Guineas go on to better things AND he stays in training as a 4 year old well who knows?

Fig Delegator ran 14 times subsequently. So he had every opportunity to prove his worth even dropping to handicap company.

Brig, this may come as news to you, but some horses lose their form after performing to a high level, they just can't stand up to it physically long term. The fact that Delegator was dropped into handicaps might just be a clue to that? I find it hard to believe that anyone who punts successfully can seriously think horses should keep running to the same level each time, without peaks and troughs, sometimes permanent troughs. Yes, extremely silly.

certainly not a stalker feltfair - i just like a bit of honesty in people and if nothing is said, people just continue to get away with it

people will make there own mind up feltfair...

yesterday another classic with edaboran...

after the event of course!!