Horse Antepost
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THE DERBY 2014
THE DERBY 2014
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I think you should always be looking to improve your methods even if you are making a good living from the game,
Figgis I notice you say you didn't do well on races like the cambridgeshire, so you could try other methods on that race though given how tricky that race is you're probably just not giving it much of a chance, you can't expect to me be winning on races like that as often as the derby. |
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SG, I suppose I'm just not that interested in races like the Cambridgeshire from a betting point of view. I prefer to concentrate on races that appeal to me and I know I can get something from overall. If I was putting effort into races like the Cambridgeshire I don't think I'd have made advances in the areas I feel I have, you can only do so much. It's also because I'm not interested in operating at low strike rates which would obviously come with such races, unless I was backing a few, which doesn't appeal to me and would also involve giving up some value.
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Yes some races you just don't get a feel for, I tried looking at the belmont stakes the other day and just didn't know where to start. Didn't know the horses, course, trainers, breeding or anything so quickly gave up. .
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Same here. I only take a casual interest in American racing. When I think of how long it's taken me to pick up on certain nuances involved in our racing that can give you an edge how can I expect to compete against local punters with years of knowledge? And the truth is I just don't have any interest in playing catch up. I suppose using valid statistics it would be possible but not with any real insight on any particular race. I don't know how it's possible to spread yourself so thin, maybe some people are doing it but I'd expect it's mainly with the help of stats and algorithms. However, I reckon anyone who specialises in a particular area is going to be more knowledgeable in their chosen field (if they're any good) than somebody trying to cover all areas.
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Aidan @Aidan_m_ 7m
Australia confirmed a runner in the Irish Derby by Aidan O'Brien provided the ground remains good or quicker according to the RP. |
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They are big supporters of the race, so if its the Ire Derby (granted fast ground) then so be it. Would have preferred to see him over 10f at Sandown myself.
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I found that oz ran like its SP i.e a 6/4 shot whereas KH ran like a 5/2 chance so in that sense it had greater value and represented each way value. I didn't rate it a 5/2 shot incidently but I did see it as being value and had a small ew bet on it.I did rate Oz a 6/4 chance and I back it but not because it was value but I wanted to cover my a/p liabilties and show some profit for all the effort involved. I spread my risks I guess.
Sandown, does this view mean that you will be keen to back Kingston Hill at 3/1 against 1/3 Australia in the Irish derby? |
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A reasonable question to ask, I guess. Whether I would be keen to, I don't know, but at the prices all other things being equal, then imo the value lies with KH. However, I suspect that the ground, pace & tactics at the Curragh will suit Australia more which evens things up a bit.At the very least, I will not be backing Australia at that price.Whether I oppose him will depend on the final field and conditions.
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You have to consider the trainers here also. KH is Roger Varian's first Derby horse, and first real Group 1 horse, so it remains to be seen how he can manage to keep the horse consistent and competing throughout the season. He may do that with aplomb. He may not. But we know AOB can do it, at least up until September time.
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I`d heard Australia was definitely going for the Eclipse
 Glad he opted for the easier option. |