Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
17 Apr 14
20:23
Joined:
Date Joined:
24 Jun 08
Thought it was about time we had a proper Derby thread with the Guineas and Derby trials now just weeks away.
At the moment the head of the market looks like this-
Australia 5/2
Kingston Hill 10/1
True Story 14/1
Western Hymn 16/1
Geoffrey Chaucer 16/1
Ectot 16/1
The two I like right now are Australia & True Story. Australia is obviously very highly thought of and has a beautiful pedigree which screams Derby to me. He's had a lot of hype surrounding him but hopefully he proves he's as good as people think and starts his season off in the 2000 guineas. True Story was a good winner in a decent field at Newmarket yesterday. I have him running in the 120s and was very impressed. Only slight question I have is there isn't a huge amount to go on in terms of his sire's progeny over 12f. His jockey and trainer seem to think he's a Derby horse though and to my eye certainly shaped like one.
At the moment the head of the market looks like this-
Australia 5/2
Kingston Hill 10/1
True Story 14/1
Western Hymn 16/1
Geoffrey Chaucer 16/1
Ectot 16/1
The two I like right now are Australia & True Story. Australia is obviously very highly thought of and has a beautiful pedigree which screams Derby to me. He's had a lot of hype surrounding him but hopefully he proves he's as good as people think and starts his season off in the 2000 guineas. True Story was a good winner in a decent field at Newmarket yesterday. I have him running in the 120s and was very impressed. Only slight question I have is there isn't a huge amount to go on in terms of his sire's progeny over 12f. His jockey and trainer seem to think he's a Derby horse though and to my eye certainly shaped like one.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,249
|
By:
like True Story,way he went away from the
rest yesterday,should stay in my view. Hope he stays fit and well and prove he is a class act.Still something might stamp himself after the Guineas and Dante. |
|
By:
Geoffrey Chaucer,a horse who will in my mind ,be much suited to Epsom,I do see it in this class and not sure Australia will go the derby route if winning the guineas? so could be the perfect super reserve?
|
|
By:
I'm with the same two horses as you Masterminded,
Australia didn't get a great speed figure from me at Leopardstown but I had him doing the last 3f in 35.1 I think and it was a second quicker than the winner in the Matron Stakes so I upgraded Australia to 115+ and given his pedigree and the way he pulled further and further clear of a useful horse suggests to me he's capable of recording a figure of an above average Derby winner. Hopefully we'll see more evidence of this in the Guineas. True Spirit as I stated on the Guineas thread I gave a big figure to and one which would be good enough to win an average Derby already and yet he has improvement to come with that being just his 3rd race and still looking green. Yes my figure was on the very upper end of the scale of possible figures I could have gone with but I'd be amazed if he wasn't at least a 120+ horse and hopefully in the Dante we'll see if he is the real deal or whether I've overrated him. He's by Manduro and out of a Darshaan mare and the grand dam was Oh So Sharp. Half brother Serengetti won a maiden over 10f before finding 2m on soft at Ascot a but too much. I think 12f will be no problem. Certainly at this stage I already feel this is could be a very good derby after a disappointing one last year. Looking forward to watching all the trials and hoping for a few more contenders to emerge. Hopefully one of the stats and trends people can post on here as I do like to read through that stuff. Also interested in reading about the Dosage Profiles of each runner if someone gets time to do so. cheers |
|
By:
The worry with true story is his temperament.
Not only was he problematic going in the stalls but he was fairly keen early on in the race. His demeanour suggests he may be a nervous type and come the derby he won't get away with running keen, especially as there's no guarantee he'll stay anyway. I can see him boiling over before the race,then pulling his head and bombing out. Especially as it appeared the front runners yesterday went a decent gallop, possibly too hard which may have flattered the first and second slightly. |
|
By:
I actually think true story would be a lively outside in the guineas as he's clearly not short of pace. Plus the likely strong pace should see him settle and finish his race strongly.
|
|
By:
Yes think you are right formboy, he will need to settle better
and won't always get a pace like that. I have gone back and looked again at the race and it's notable how Obliterator is struggling to keep up early and both he and True Story are held up behind and out of the headwind. From 3f out I'm clocking the likes of Somewhat coming home in 40s so the pace definitely collapses and I'd say that has caused a few of the horses to run perhaps a stone below form. The wind readings at 5.00 were also less than earlier in the day which could explain my big time figure so I am reducing his figure by several pounds. However I still think he had a major derby chance as long as he can settle better. |
|
By:
Had a small ante-p interest in the Great Race over the winter.
Like the look of Geoffrey Chaucer (took 19.5) he looked a real mid-dist horse to me last year & at the price was the value against the fav (stable mate) Be a bit surprised if he goes for a 2000gns race imo, would have thought a Derby trial route to the main event would be the right way to go with him myself. AOB has a strong hand as norm & we wil have a better view of things over the next few wks. |
|
By:
It's easy to get carried away with speed figures and form ratings,they can't tell us if a horse is improved, and by how much, when we aint seen them run this year.
|
|
By:
Australia ran well in defeat today and looks a worthy favourite and bar something coming out of the woodwork in one of the trials you would think he will be v short on the day. True Story's form also took a bit of a boost with the Hannon horse winning later on the card.
We now have the trials coming up very quickly with Chester next week and then the Dante. Hopefully it will throw something up but it's looking like the strongest of the British raiders are all heading to York with True Story, Western Hymn and Bunker probably going that way. Bunker is quite an interesting horse at a big price for me. |
|
By:
Australia showed fantastic pace for a horse bred to relish 12 furlongs. It's going to take something very special to beat him if he runs his race at Epsom. Antepost backers are sitting very pretty.
|
|
By:
Interesting development today was that Fallon will now ride True Story in the Dante.
|
|
By:
Very interesting indeed ^^^
Looked a very gd horse 1st time out a few wks ago (if still a bit green) KF is a top man round Epsom & has been doing very well for the boys in blue. Interesting to see how this horse gets on at York. Australia put up a great effort in yest 2000gns & looks sure to be better over further, he is a worthy fav atm. Looking forward to seeing his stablemate run this year (Geoffrey Chaucer) I liked the look of him last year with middle dist in mind for him at 3. |
|
By:
AOB has been talking about how much speed GC has and was thinking about running in the French Guineas. Whether or not that is where he will start his season I don't know but he is an interesting one for sure.
|
|
By:
Just looking and Turftrax sectionals for the 2000 guineas,Australia ran the first 4f by .20 and .31 quicker than the two rivals that finished in front of him,a lack of a recent run and surprising pace all positives for Australia(who was supposed to be the stayer amongst these?) got the fractions wrong!
|
|
By:
Find it really interesting that Hannon questions Night of Thunder's ability to last the Derby trip because of the turn of foot he showed in the Guineas. Is it not worth taking a chance that this horse is a freak?, looking at it's pedigree it is absolutely laden with stamina influences.
Suppose where the leap of faith comes in, is in that the horse would have to be some machine to win a Derby after quickening past horses of the calibre of Kingman and Australia over a mile, but there has to be worth taking a chance that this horse is special. I am more than sure connections are perfectly aware of the stamina (on paper) in the horse's pedigree and often racing style has to be believed more than pedigree but as the say there is only one derby, I for one would love to see it line up at Epsom. |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Have to agree also that to the eye Australia ran a more traditional "Derby like" trial than Night of Thunder and time may tell that it was a fantastic run getting so close to the first 2 over a trip way short of it's optimum.
Still feel though that on breeding Night of Thunder would be a fascinating addition to the field. |
|
By:
I think you have to view the race(guineas) as two separate races in progress,Toomore(122) the best official rated in the race and proven, was the pace standside,Australia pulled 2.25 lengths clear of a much improved Shifting Power(107) on the stands side,some 5-6 lb clear of any horse finishing standside.The winner was great, drifted off a true line with good finishing sectionals,so his advantage of the early pace and rails position(well close enough) given up a little and probably value for 2 lengths on official distances with those on the far side.I will be interested where Shifting power goes next?
|
|
By:
I agree with you saritamer NOT can only go up in trip or stay at the trip,he can't drop in trip on previous effort.
 |
|
By:
J,O got a two day whip ban for his ride on Australia in the 2000 , perhaps the horse was under a bit more of a ride than he appeared to be at the time , still it was a good performance first time out and his breeding s-houts Derby type .
Loved Ouija board his mother a fantastically genuine filly and what is not to like about Frankel Sire Galileo .Do not have NOT as a derby type right now , his wandering about at the end of the 2000 may be an indication that he was running out of gas toward the finish , should be a great shoot-out between him and Kingman in the SJP if they both get there . Chester sometimes offers up great Derby clues , so looking forward to that meeting , but right now see Australia as very persuasive favourite. |
|
By:
yes mac I think we can see from the video and whip ban ,that they wanted Australia,Can only think orders were to follow Toormoore not Noozah(Dad I think we got it wrong again?)
|
|
By:
Yes metro ,NOT a good winner powers along on soft ground so watering on last two furlongs helped him out , Australia may have won on other side then again he may not have .
|
|
By:
his wandering about at the end of the 2000 may be an indication that he was running out of gas toward the finish
mac, would have to disagree with that. Thought Night Of Thunder was running on very strongly and drawing away at the finish with Fallon having to stop riding for a couple of strides to straighten him up. If had run straight and jockey kept on riding to the line, might have won by over a length instead of just a half imo. Plenty of stamina on the dam side whilst sire Dubawi gets plenty of middle distance types himself, massive strike rate at 10f+ all the way up to 2m. In Group company at more than 11f, Dubawi is huge 14-61 (23%) with winners including: horse dam damsire pos dist Group sp Date Course race title Monterosso Porto Roca Barathea 1 1m 4f GP2 7/2 18/06/2010 ASCOT KING EDWARD VII STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (1) Prince Bishop North East Bay Prospect Bay 1 1m 4f GP2 7/1 17/10/2010 LONGCHAMP PRIX DU CONSEIL DE PARIS (GROUP 2) (3YO+) (TURF) Monterosso Porto Roca Barathea 1 1m 4f GP2 10/1 03/03/2011 MEYDAN DUBAI CITY OF GOLD SPONSORED BY EMIRATES AIRLINE (GROUP 2) (TURF) Waldpark Wurftaube Acatenango 1 1m 4f GP1 12/1 03/07/2011 HAMBURG IDEE 142. DEUTSCHES DERBY (GROUP 1) (3YO COLTS & FILLIES) (TURF) Fox Hunt Kiltubber Sadler's Wells 1 1m 6f GP3 Evens 18/09/2011 DORTMUND DEUTSCHES ST LEGER (GROUP 3) (3YO+) (TURF) Fox Hunt Kiltubber Sadler's Wells 1 1m 6f GP3 13/8 01/03/2012 MEYDAN NAD AL SHEBA TROPHY SPONSORED BY ATTIJARI AL ISLAMI (GROUP 3) (TURF) Al Kazeem Kazeem Darshaan 1 1m 4f GP2 15/2 05/05/2012 NEWMARKET QATAR BLOODSTOCK JOCKEY CLUB STAKES (GROUP 2) (1) Mickdaam Ribot's Guest Be My Guest 1 1m 4f GP3 8/1 10/05/2012 CHESTER MBNA CHESTER VASE (GROUP 3) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (1) Ahzeemah Swiss Roll Entrepreneur 1 1m 6f GP3 6/1 02/03/2013 MEYDAN NAD AL SHEBA TROPHY SPONSORED BY HARAS ESTRELA ENERGIA (GROUP 3) (TURF) Universal Winesong Giant's Causeway 1 1m 4f GP3 11/1 20/04/2013 NEWBURY DUBAI DUTY FREE FINEST SURPRISE STAKES (REGISTERED AS THE JOHN PORTER STAKES) (GROUP 3) (1) Universal Winesong Giant's Causeway 1 1m 4f GP2 11/4 04/05/2013 NEWMARKET QATAR BLOODSTOCK JOCKEY CLUB STAKES (GROUP 2) (1) Universal Winesong Giant's Causeway 1 1m 4f GP2 3/1 11/07/2013 NEWMARKET (JULY) PRINCESS OF WALES'S ****.COM STAKES (GROUP 2) (1) Ahzeemah Swiss Roll Entrepreneur 1 2m GP2 4/1 23/08/2013 YORK WEATHERBYS HAMILTON INSURANCE LONSDALE CUP (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (GROUP 2) (1) Prince Bishop North East Bay Prospect Bay 1 1m 4f GP3 7/1 07/09/2013 KEMPTON (A.W) TOTEPOOL SEPTEMBER STAKES (GROUP 3) (1) |
|
By:
or without race title....
horse dam damsire pos dist Group sp Date Course Monterosso Porto Roca Barathea 1 1m 4f GP2 7/2 18/06/2010 ASCOT Prince Bishop North East Bay Prospect Bay 1 1m 4f GP2 7/1 17/10/2010 LONGCHAMP Monterosso Porto Roca Barathea 1 1m 4f GP2 10/1 03/03/2011 MEYDAN Waldpark Wurftaube Acatenango 1 1m 4f GP1 12/1 03/07/2011 HAMBURG Fox Hunt Kiltubber Sadler's Wells 1 1m 6f GP3 Evens 18/09/2011 DORTMUND Fox Hunt Kiltubber Sadler's Wells 1 1m 6f GP3 13/8 01/03/2012 MEYDAN Al Kazeem Kazeem Darshaan 1 1m 4f GP2 15/2 05/05/2012 NEWMARKET Mickdaam Ribot's Guest Be My Guest 1 1m 4f GP3 8/1 10/05/2012 CHESTER Ahzeemah Swiss Roll Entrepreneur 1 1m 6f GP3 6/1 02/03/2013 MEYDAN Universal Winesong Giant's Causeway 1 1m 4f GP3 11/1 20/04/2013 NEWBURY Universal Winesong Giant's Causeway 1 1m 4f GP2 11/4 04/05/2013 NEWMARKET Universal Winesong Giant's Causeway 1 1m 4f GP2 3/1 11/07/2013 NEWMARKET (JULY) Ahzeemah Swiss Roll Entrepreneur 1 2m GP2 4/1 23/08/2013 YORK Prince Bishop North East Bay Prospect Bay 1 1m 4f GP3 7/1 07/09/2013 KEMPTON (A.W) |
|
By:
A real shame Free Eagle is injured and misses the race.
I like Geoffrey Chaucer too but as we have seen with Camelot and Imperial Monarch, when AOB has a ''Great'' horse he will avoid taking him on with another smart one. Not always, but sometimes, so i'd be loathe to back Geoffrey Chaucer ante-post for that reason. |
|
By:
Thursday Chester Vase, Friday Dee Stakes, Saturday Lingfield Derby Trial, Sunday Derrinstown at Leopardstown. Following week Dante at York.
Then take your pick.  |
|
By:
I can see two German group one winners over middle distances in the List but i can not see stamina potential yet in the Dubawi colt we are interested in - Night of Thunder .
Reckon he might get ten furlongs in a group one, you think he can do better than that ? |
|
By:
Pricewi$€ goes True Story & Kingston Hill.
|
|
By:
mac, bar Acatenango and possibly Darshaan in the list of damsires, would have thought Galileo was as strong an influence for stamina as any in that list.
So would have to hope Night Of Thunder could have chances of staying 12f reasonably well? |
|
By:
Chester Vase decs in, have to say it looks a pretty ordinary renewal.
Anyone think there could be a possible Derby winner in there? |
|
By:
No,Seagull Star could go well if ground firm up.
|
|
By:
Geoffrey Chaucer entered in derrinstown sunday and dante
followers will be hoping he takes in a trail rather then take in france which was touted by the trainer i have been interested in him for a while as like his profile and pedigree, however i'm not actually sure what he has achieved and how much ability he has actually got... so would not be backing him at the price we are getting...that price should be considerably bigger imo his debut was a farce of a race in which he scraped home in a poor 3 runner maiden in a very slow time(jeeze it was hard work)...yes there was no pace that day and he did it the hard way and although green he wasn't impressive by any stretch he then went to the beresford and personally i backed oaklahoma city that day as thought he might make all on the easy lead, however he was given a not off ride (deplorable) ridden with restrain, this was surely to give chaucer a confidence booster and keep him unbeaten, as really he was his only real rival that day imo...another slow time and as much as you would think he is a mile and half horse on pedigree and can only improve after these races i just have to question what he has achieved and how much ability he actually has?? he also doesn't appear to have his sires quirks which can sometimes be a good thing i get the feeling he maybe best with some cut as well, that is still to be proved though but he certainly doesn't do anything quickly anyway i had some itchy fingers about him over the winter as i was gagging to get australia beaten and he looked like a likely type for the race...however i certainly wouldn't be backing him till we see more and get the feeling he may lack some class and his rating is very suspect imo at this stage... his trail will tell us more in this regard but i would advise a tad of caution with him till we see more...just remember australia is going nowhere and price will hold and he is priced now at a price that says he is very good already and for me he hasn't proved that... until he proves me otherwise that is...his pedigree says he will be good over middle distances this season and his trail should tell us more and where we are at with in regards his true ability but hold fire i would say |
|
By:
Australia is bred for the trip, in fact bred to win the derby.
If he can run to around 120 over a mile he should be capable of running to around 130 over a mile and a half. As a relaxed individual he should be a straight forward ride and it will take something special to beat him. |
|
By:
Just for Harry.
The clock says no to Geffrey Chaucer However I have had a couple of pounds on Iniesta(who also is entered in the Derrinstown)at 629/1. Could be the beginnings of an "all green" Derby book. |
|
By:
Also Mekong River at 249/1
Could have the game by the balls |
|
By:
Geoffrey Chaucer hasn't had a chance to post any decent times yet but I'd imagine he's capable of producing a very good figure.
He's one of those 'could be anything horses'. Hopefully we'll find out in the Derrinstown, also hope Obliterator runs there so we can get a line on True Story. |
|
By:
You could be right of course.
|
|
By:
it will take something special to beat Australia,
and that is very much a True Story. |
|
By:
bit off the cuff but a question to all...
am well aware australia is bred to be a 1m 4f horse but does anyone have any reservations at all about him at this trip or is it a given he will get it?? it has just nagged me ever since his leopardstown win and for me i'd only be confident at 1m 2f at this stage, although obviously his class may just see him through...anyway he is bred too...he just nags me that his optimum will be 1m2f in time and as an individual just doesn't look a staying type...could be wrong of course any reservations or just a given??? |