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Horse Antepost
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These 458 comments are related to the topic:
**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**
**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**
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Replies: 458
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trends are a load of bollox.....its no different than getting your palm read at a fair.......the winner of the paddy power on Saturday.......is going to be ridden by a good jockey......is going to be trained by a good trainer......is not going to be that old......is going to have run at the track before.....will like the ground.....and don't back the top weight.....or a 10 yo.......
so as long as finians rainbow doesn't win......which is a 100/1 poke.....the fortune teller gets it right......what a load of bolloxxx...... |
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Anybody who was ever guided by stats and speed figures......finished up on skid row.....
You mean like Phil Bull and Jim McGrath!  |
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Jim Mcgrath got money by selling his **** and bull ratings to mugs like yerself......phil bull more than likely used inside info as much as anybody......the same way McGrath does nowadays......
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As someone who uses trends, speed figures (and breeding) as the cornerstone of my analysis of a race and given I'm parked up on easy street next to a bookies who sh1ts me gold on demand, tell me where I'm going wrong paulie?
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Ah,the ol trends and stats debate again,happens every year!!
Not getting involved myself,most on here know I aint a trends/stats person anyway. Each to their own.....aint it?? |
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Exactly budd.
Or more to the point, it's going against the crowd and unearthing angles that only very few others know about or can be bothered to spend time researching. |
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Absolutely,the more work you put in then the more reward you deserve imo.
A race like this one(PP)I tend to look at on the day of the race when I know the going and definite runners,and have a good look at each horse...form, ground etc etc. |
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Well those of us who have played ante post will know our fate after 10.00AM tomorrow, as it is a 48 hour declaration race. My guess is that there will be fewer runners than the 20 safety limit.
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It's a toughie this year, but with the ground you'd have to favour Champion Court, who loves it round HQ, is at his perfect trip and according to his handler is in fine fettle. However, he is a little short now.
What puzzles me is that given Dicheat has about 200 boxes, how is it that in a race they like to win (including last year), they're happy to be solely represented by old Woolcombe Folly. He's not a stats horse, that's for sure, but he is about 20lb down on his highest ever mark. At the prices I'm prepared to take the gamble, with CC as a small saver. |
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I think Al Ferof was the first time PFN had actually won this race, Desmond. Not sure he always targets it. Though I take your point re Woolcombe Folly. He could quite possibly have Harry Derham on to claiming weight.
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I have a 'short ' list of 6 at this stage, before tomorrow's 48hr decs. BALLYNAGOUR, CHAMPION COURT, CONQUISTO, HIDDEN CYCLONE , RAJDANI EXPRESS &.SALUT FLO.
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Trends indicate that class is the prerequisite that's for sure.
12 out of the last 15 winners finished the season as the top rated horse to compete and 2 horses actually carried top weight to victory in the last 11 years. |
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Makes you think you don't know what to think.....
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14 of the last 20 winners wore blue.
13 of the last 16 winners had an O in their name. Only 2 of the last 30 winners had a single barrelled name. |
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Any info regarding their starsigns and biorhythms sisyphus?
Only I like to cover every angle....  |
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Is this race 24 hour or 48 hour Declarations to Run? Thanks
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14 of the last 20 winners wore blue.
13 of the last 16 winners had an O in their name. Only 2 of the last 30 winners had a single barrelled name. That's Rajdhani Express fooked then! Loks like I've done my dough.....  |
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Is this race 24 hour or 48 hour Declarations to Run? Thanks
48. You will know your fate shortly after 10 tomorrow morning. |
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Merci
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Regarding Rajdhani Express, I cant bring myself to back him due to his record first time out..... looks a bit of an issue to me. Not a concern for backers?
I am already on Johns Spirit and have added Nadiya de la vega today at 12/1. |
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Nadiya de la Vega for me too. And doubled it with Kashmir Peak in the Greatwood.
Well 2 x e-w singles and an e-w double. 14s & 12s GL |
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Do we know who barry geraghty rides? cheers
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Im hoping he rides FR
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Do u think Mc Coy will ride NdlV. This horse has won fresh every time!
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If he gets down to 10-3 I would see that as a big positive for Nadiya.
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He did 10-8 on her at this meeting last year i think. So yeh, would be a huge positive!
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10-3 is his lowest in the last 12 months according to RP.
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Won't the weights go up if Finian's Rainbow comes out? In which case AP would not have to get down to 10-3 for NDLV. Would please AP and JP I'm sure but possibly not Michael Buckley.
Can see Henderson getting in a right flap over this one, he must need to be a consumate politician, perhaps his job is more difficult than I thought! |
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Finian's Rainbow runs just saw it on the Racing Post website.
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Champion Court for me.
Don't like the way the Pipes going about business. Anyone who thinks for half a second that this hasn't been the target for Dynaste all along is a fool. He as been layed out for this same as Grand Crus was last year. And of course last year there was the same circus act Grand Crus might run but we are not sure. And then the press and other people who don't know any better start saying silly stuff like how sporting it is of Pipe to keep the public informed when in fact he is doing the exact opposite. Dynaste will run 100% same as Grand Crus was always going to run last year 100%. |
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Yeah Finian's a definite runner now, what might come out of the race to let John's spirit in? Walkon? Texas Jack?
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So far I have only backed FR.
 Leaning towards Dynaste/Rajdhani Express on the day. |
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Texas Jack declared at Clonmel tomorrow so presumably he'll come out.
Wishfull Thinking is entered in Shloer Chase on Sun so he might go there (especially if trainer wants to ensure Colour Squadron gets in PP, but different owners so not straightforward). Both NdlV and Astracad are entered at Cheltenham on Fri but presume those were precautionary in case they did n't get in Paddy Power. All guess work of course. |
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Hmm much appreciated, I have effectively done some some market making on this race, would love Colour Squadron to get in as he is nearly 8% of the book at the moment, obviously need three to come out for that to happen. I thought Walkon after his crashing fall last time out might be an unlikely, can't find anything on the internet about him.
thought Ndlv and Astracad would both be runners. Might be touch and go to get CS in  |
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Can't Catch Me - That's the only negative that I have with Radjahni express. It's a risk I am willing to take though as he does look the most progressive horse in the race and the novice handicap he won at the festival is usually a good pointer to the PaddyPower. (Divers and Quantativeasing both placed in 2011.)
Champion Court looks pretty exposed to me. He is classy but 157 is very high and he's not won off that mark before. Is he good enough now to win off it? I'm not sure. Champion Court will run his heart out for you though and their is no doubt he could well run in to a place. I so wish Tom George had sent Module down this route. He would have had a great chance in this race off 152 given the race he won over an inadequate 2mile 1f in the Haldon. |
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I agree re: champion court, honest battler but a touch of the bridesmaid about him for me,just seems to be one of those that surpasses himself when apparently out of his depth, but perhaps one to take on when on the face of it he's contesting a major race he's favourite for .
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How great would it be if Finian's Rainbow came back to form and won this? He beat Sizing Europe in his pomp!
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I was a big fan of his as a novice hurdler and as a novice chaser, remember geraghty getting really excited about the prospect of him novice chasing, a year before he got really really excited about another horse going the same way....FR never got complete credit for his queen mum win, I have to say with some justification if I'm honest, even so, he's yet another example of why the jumps game holds so much fondness to it's followers.
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