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I was trying to make a case for Tap Night. Young and open to improvement from a small(er) stable I respect who aren't afraid to have a go(and perform well) at big prizes in the south. Acts on any going and gets the distance. However, I can't see how he can reverse earlier form with Rajdhani Express.
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This selection is on the rebound. Dynaste. It's obvious by now surely ?
Graded horse possibly a stone in ? Will have to be to be winning the King George. Pipey keeping us all guessing, and this is my 'guess'. Still p1ssed off about W Mullins. |
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Certainly has the profile, i always try to look for a horse that could go onto run in the KG or the GC in the future.
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After the latest forfeit stage, here is my revised shortlist, according to the trends:
Dynaste 100% Rajdhani Express 100% Texas Jack 94% Champion Court 84% |
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I think with saw with dynaste last year that they got his trip wrong when he ran in the jewson, I don't fancy him over 20f off his rating giving weight away to horses probably better in than him running over a more ideal trip for them.
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Al Ferof won this off 159 and it looked a much better renewal than today's entries IMO.
Dynaste will be running and winning off his mark surely if they feel he's a graded performer. Doesn't make sense to meet SC, BW first time out this season and leave the King George in tough race off levels at Haydock. Can however surely give weight to inferior opposition such as this lot. |
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In this type of race you need to stay well, Dynaste proven over further is a big plus imo. But then again the quicker ground may negate that.
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Just about stopped crying about Marito! I don't think there is any doubt that Dynaste is capable of winning off his current mark but my concern is the trip. Plus I think presuming if he can't win this off 159 he isn't capable of winning bigger is somewhat naive. Long Run was beaten off 158 and went on to win the King George and Gold Cup. Personally think this is a pretty weak renewal but Marito not running lessened my vigour for this race.
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Dynaste very weak in the market for BOTH the Paddy Power and the Betfair Chase ...
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Do most feel, like me, that with the forecasted good ground, probably (near) maximum field of improving young chasers, the race will likely be run at a brisk gallop with good jumpers that lie up with the pace? (You obviously want to be in a good position to give yourself a clear unobstructed chance at the second last).
If so, what runners would you say come in to this category and what ones for that matter don't? |
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I am hoping that KATENKO is a "huge" horse waiting to happen, following his romp up the Cheltenham Hill in January,
Trainer going very well, and loves a handicap winner at the course, so Venetia's big boy for me. |
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Katenko on goodish ground? On soft at this trip surely a minimum, definate improver. If it did come up soft Texas Jack would be of interest. Think I'm going to wait till the day to see all the imponderables
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Agree could be a big player, if not an ideal trend horse.
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What did trends say about Conduct on Saturday
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Gonna probably put my foot in it here but Venetia's stable is not normally one you would associate for laying out for a big plunge on a top start of season race for young chasers.
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I really do not understand Pipes comments when he says he won't run Dynaste under top weight and would rather wait till the Haydick race!!?
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Haydock....... Predictive text
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Don't get me wrong, I appreciate Katenko has real potential.
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Dynaste is a very good horse, no doubt but I feel and think David Pipe does that he's a 3 miler. His run in the Jewson although a good one was below par but I think they avoided the RSA as it's a grueller of a race and has ruined many a good young horse, even though the trip was ideal.
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Cant see it was below par, you are saying he was a cert. Sometimes in racing you are beaten by a horse that rallies under pressure on the day and beats you in the last 2 furlongs.
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I'm not saying he was a cert! I'm saying the trip beat him! If it was 3 miles he would have won.
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My long shot is Astracad this has been thereabouts the last few seasons only 7 yo now. Twiston knows how to get them ready for this.
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Spent the last 2 hours weighing up the race and the horse for me who looks to have the class, course form and likely to improve is Radjahni Express. The only slight negatives for me is that he hasn't won first time out before so may need the run.
Also the jockey, does anyone know if Sam gets his 5lb allowance in this race so the horse will be off 10'13 instead of 11'4? Can't say it's really an overwhelming field this year. A lot of the runners look pretty exposed and not many well improving 2nd season chasers about either that look good enough. Agree Astracad could offer the sort of value Litle Josh did a few years ago at a big price. Looking for a biggie could be the way to go in this field. |
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Agreed KATENKO would need Soft in the going description to have the only chance to win.
I don't think he would run if it was GOOD Ground or Good (Good to Soft in places). Appreciate Venetia has won her big handicaps with well established, exposed types, but theres always a time for something new, and the stable is in form, and if the ground conditions are right then this horse was well tipped up as a Gold Cup place prospects after his Cheltenham win. |
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Coming around to the idea that Nadiya De La Vega is interesting rated 5lbs lower than when running 3rd in last year's renewal.
Most of her best form is with some give in the ground though - if her trainer runs Finians Rainbow, she'll be off a nice low weight but if Hendo has read Pipe's comments he might be thinking of taking Finian's Rainbow out (also entered Sunday!) knowing that Dynaste will come out too. I'm getting seduced by conspiracy theories now so think it really is better to wait until the morning of the race. In fact - and I know this is heresy on the antepost forum - but I really do wonder about the validity of antepost punting on a race like this, the day of race market is likely to be very competitive. I think someone posted above a while ago with fancy three figure prices on Double Ross which looks a nice bet now and I know a few of you have some nice prices about John's Spirit - both likely to get in but neither certain to do so. Apart from that, where has been the value in antepost market for this race? Genuine question, not having a go at anyone but I find it really hard to fathom even now which horses are actually going to turn up on Saturday. |
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jJohns Spirit was unlucky to have not won more races last season.Noted him as a strong travelling individual.Won well last time out. Believe him to be a horse on the upgrade.
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According to todays RP, Nadiya De La Vega going for the PP while Finians most likely going the 2m chase on sunday as long as good ground
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John's Spirit's jumping is the big problem, and likely to be held up one bad mistake could cost him the race. Hope not, but it cost him last season.
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Meadow, I would say the ground and being prominent would play to the strengths of Champion Court.
re Dynaste, the trainer won't say it but is possible he could use this race as a prep for Kempton. |
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Worth remembering Grand Crus was 7/4 fav for this last year and well stuffed.
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grand crus does seem to have a mental problem though Sint!!
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I'm quite sure Radjhani can beat Dynaste getting 4lbs
not quite so sure he can beat John's Spirit giving 16lb ![]() hmm... |
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Now he does Budde. People weren't saying that at the time hence his 7/4 SP.
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pipe not wanting to run dynaste under top weight, suggests a little that he simply doesn't think he has enough things in his favour, whereas you'd want the trainer to not be worrying about what is "lurking" because he has every confidence in his own horse being superior with regard the rating...pipe isn't, this could be very much down to the trip being an issue, in the betfair chase it is what it is, he knows where he is with regards to the rest of the field and it's 3 miles, that race to me seems a far better prep for the KG.
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he might just know that carrying top weight in this race is a virtual guarantee of defeat, don't think one has won in, well, certainly my memory
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I'm quite sure Radjhani can beat Dynaste getting 4lbs
not quite so sure he can beat John's Spirit giving 16lb hmm... Won't this be 11 with the rider's claim judo? Decent ground should favour the classier horses too. |
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will he be able to claim 5lbs? ooh that will help, had not factored that in
anyway, money is down on Radjhani already at 12s so can but wait n see |
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Unless conditions of the race have changed, then claims are allowed for eligible riders.
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I'm not even sure if Dynaste is well handicapped off 159 tbh regardless of trip/conditions. If Pipey thought the horse had enough in hand to win, he would run, imo.
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I think I probably assumed SWC would not be able to claim because he will have ridden plenty of winners but he prolly gets the 5lb just for being an Amateur or something? will certainly improve his chance as that means he is only 13lb worse off for 16.5 lengths with JS
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