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**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**
**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**
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Presume the claim is the same as for a conditional. This drops to 3lbs once they have ridden 40 winners. As far as I can see, SWC has ridden 37 in his career to date. He has a disproportionately high level of experience in big/valuable races which is a major plus for Saturday, notwithstanding his relatively modest ability.
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Am i the only one who doesnt fancy Rajdhani Express? Off a rating of 155 (150 inc claim) i dont think it gives him much in hand personally. The same connections couldnt win it with a future gold cup and king george winner and i dont think anyone at seven barrows would have this lad down as a future grade 1 winner! So far ive had a nibble on Nadiya De La Vega at 20's (well in with a lot of rivals from its runs here last Oct & Nov) and also shortlisted Colour Squadron (weighted to reverse form with Rajdahni from the festival in a race he also had in running problems at the top of the hill) and Pipes Salut Flo & Ballynagour (looks a possible non runner) but not wading in just yet as had my fingers burnt in the past ante post on this race. The race looks wide open and wouldnt be a surprise to see an outsider come home.
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I half looked at colour squadron, the weight pull with rajhani was quite eye catching but can't quite get away from the fact that he was the mcmanus nudge nudge wink wink handicap special at last years festival but couldn't manage it, so although he's better off still with raj he's probably not that special himself, races keenly too.
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he's only 6 years old and has had 7 chase starts, there's no telling how high he could go in the ratings
Cue Card started last season (aged 6) on 157 and ended up rated 172 (under rated imo) so there's every chance the likes of RE and other similarly lightly raced types can improve another stone this year whether they will or won't will become evident after they run but there's no way you can be sure they don't have anything in hand at this stage (or of course that they do) |
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sc1883 12 Nov 13 07:08 Joined: 25 Jul 02 | Topic/replies: 423 | Blogger: sc1883's blog
According to todays RP, Nadiya De La Vega going for the PP while Finians most likely going the 2m chase on sunday as long as good ground Yes, I read this earlier today - and now I have just seen Hendo say on Racing UK that he spoke to Michael Buckley this morning and there is a 'big chance' FR will run in the Paddy Power because of how far he has come down in weights. The two of them are meeting at Greatwood tomorrow to induct Spirit Son (or something!) so expect it to change again 'you put the top weight in, take the top weigh out do the Hendo cokey and shuffle em around you put five in, take two out, that's what it's all about oh Hendo cokey,cokey oh Hendo cokey,cokey, in,out,in out, wait till Friday' |
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Literal interpretation of RE's form with Changing Times at Ayr - would have finished a clear second had CT stood up giving 3lbs - would have put him close to the frame in the Jewson and a very similar horse to Dynaste and Module. He is only 6 and was progressive last season. Reports are that he has summered well. Long Run has a much higher profile because he was more precocious and a very expensive purchase. RE is owner bred and has come to hand more slowly. If he does win off 155 on Saturday, then there is every chance that he will be contesting Grade 1 races in future.
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'you put the top weight in, take the top weigh out
do the Hendo cokey and shuffle em around you put five in, take two out, that's what it's all about oh Hendo cokey,cokey oh Hendo cokey,cokey, in,out,in out, wait till Friday' Very good rh!  Is hendo WPM in disguise? |
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brilliant!
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Good old Hendo lol!
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For anyone interested, it rained for several hours overnight though not heavily....maybe a few mm's. Been a glorious autumn day today with the sun shining and temperatures up to 12/13 degrees.
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If Pipe doesn't think Dynaste (OR 159) isn't well handicapped, then what chance does he have in the Betfair. If the likes of Tidal Bay (171), Cue Card (172) Silv Conte (173) and Bobs Worth (180) run, he will get smashed out of sight.
He will have to run to a stone better than his OR to be competitive. He is a second season chaser and is open to improvement, but if Pipe thinks he is up to being competitive in the Betfair then he has to be very well handicapped. So why wouldn't you run him in the PP?. Even off top weight!! |
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I hope he goes straight to the king George good record fresh
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Dynaste's rating, I think anyway is based more on his ability over 3 miles, what is his actual rating over 20f, who knows but it's fair to say it's probably inferior to 159,but of course it doesn't work like that, you have to carry the same rating for all distances... so in effect you could argue he'd be carrying overweight in the PP, but that's only if like me, you think he's a lot better over 3 miles, I think pipe is worried about this.
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Fair point Duffy.
Bit pointless entering him then!!!!! |
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Don't know why Pipe didn't enter him for the Hennessy or even the Peterborough Chase, nuless h feels they are too close to the King George.
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"nuless" Unless
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Trainer Nicky Henderson is leaning towards letting Finian's Rainbow take his chance off top weight in Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
His participation is likely to have big repercussions on the race as trainer David Pipe suggested he was not keen on letting ante-post favourite Dynaste carry top weight if the former champion chaser was not declared. Henderson told Racing UK: "I spoke to Michael (Buckley, owner) this morning and I'm seeing him tomorrow to discuss it, but I think there's a big chance that he will run in the Paddy Power. "Because he's come down (in the weights) there is the temptation to do it. "It's the intention to run the other two (Rajdhani Express and Nadiya De La Vega), too." |
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Must be not only rich but stupid these owners forking out all these entry fees to then not run, trainers should KNOW whether it's the right race before entering, only excuse for not running then for me would be extremes of going that couldn't be foreseen with early entry.
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Personally think running Finians in the PP is lunacy, top weights have an awful record and if they went to the 2M chase on the sunday it would be getting 10 pounds from Sire De Grugy, that's a 12 pound pull from when they met at Sandown!
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Is Salut Flo and intended runner
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And please forgive me, but i have not had a great deal of time so i cannot read through the entire thread as i always usually do but can someone please post the key trends for this race please?
Not interested in pointless trends that people tend to post like trainers records, more winners at these odds on heavy ground etc more like weights, age, anything relevant lol |
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I for one don't buy into this top weights have no chance.
Normally top weights in these competitive handicaps are exposed sorts who are vulnerable to lightly raced youngster. Hence why they don't often win. Stats are against them because its one against the field. I never ignore them on a stats basis without looking at them first. It really gets my goat when people (mainly journalists) proclaim trainers as a genius. How hard is is it to get a horse fit/ well handicapped. Most of them are clueless. The top trainers are half sensible. |
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The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 16th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 15th to 17th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof in recent years. In 2010 Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 0-3-13 6yo: 2-6-30 7yo: 7-7-45 8yo: 1-5-41 9yo: 0-7-21 10yo+: 0-0-18 Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-16-88 Horses aged 8+: 1-12-80 None of the 18 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 6-8-63 Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 4-20-105 Higher weights have held a slight advantage with 6 of last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more. Top Weight: 504FPP65PP (0-1-10) Official Ratings Horses rated 146 or higher: 7-11-69 Horses rated 136 to 145: 3-11-82 Horses rated 135 or less: 0-6-17 7 of 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 39.4% of total runners. Recent/Past Form 7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham 9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point and was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F) 10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better 6 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (2 of 4 exceptions placed in a grade 1 hurdle) 6 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 4 had run once that season, 3 winning and 1 finished 2nd) 6 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start 9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run less than 10 times over fences 10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases 10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers Last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree Other Races Previous November Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 2U1 (1-1-3) Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase winner (Rajdhani Express): 1F3P (1-1-4) Record of first 6 from Rewards4Racing Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P (2-3-12) Previous December Gold Cup winner (Unioniste): 125UP (1-1-5) First 3 from previous December Gold Cup: 123P5U1P (2-2-8) Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 1 (1-0-1) Previous year's Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase winner (Dynaste): 1P (1-0-2) Feltham Novice Chase winner (Deynas): 3P (0-1-2) Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Captain Conan): 846 (0-1-3) Silver Trophy Chase winner (Champion Court): 2PU (0-1-3) Timeform Novice H'cap Chase winner (Vino Griego): 6U (0-0-2) Murphy Group H'cap Chase winner (Katenko): 706 (0-0-3) Byrne Group Plate winner (Carrickboy): 477PP60 (0-0-7) 3 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F 3 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211 2 of 7 second season chaser winners ran in Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 16 3 of 3 third season chaser winners ran in previous year's December Gold Cup, finishing 1F2 8 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival Trainers The Pipe stable (3-1-16) have accounted for 4 of the last 11 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-10) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011. Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-14) trained the winner in in 2008 & 2010 and a placed finisher in 2007 & 2009. He saddled the 5th in 2011 and had no runner in it last year. Nicky Henderson (1-6-17) & Paul Nicholls (1-4-21) have both saddled the winner and multiple placed finishers in the last 10 years. Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-9) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006. Phillip Hobbs (0-4-9) and Alan King (0-3-8) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2003. Irish based trainers (1-1-18) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980. Price The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000. Favourites (3-3-10) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2003 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 6.00. Summary: Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 5 to 7 - Carrying 10-13+ - Officially rated 146 or higher - Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase - Previously won a chase at Cheltenham - Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F - Second or third season chaser - Previously run less than 10 times over fences - Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases - First 3 in 2012 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup - Ran in a chase at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival - First 6 in the Rewards4Racing Novice Handicap Chase - Trained in Great Britain - Trained by David Pipe, Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson - Favourite does well - See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/paddy-power-gold-cup-trends-2013-1383534793#sthash.raEMTcNH.dpuf |
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I have to say one thing BHB ratings are only the handicappers view it's not fact! If it was that easy you would just back the highest rated horse in races such as the King George. Dynaste could be beaten in this off 159 and go on to win a bigger race. I'm 100% 3 miles is his trip but thats my view and I've been none to be wrong
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Well done on that post Joci Club....well surmised and researched....glad to see my pick, Katenko, ticks a lot of those boxes....although I know he likes it softer (but has won on good in France)...my worry is that he is drifting slightly today but I think that could be just the predict going....my opinion is that he will handle the good ground, especially first time out....if he is thought of as a Gold Cup horse he must be well handicapped (although I said that about Long Run!)
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Great work JOCI....I presume you have already backed Rajdhani Express!?
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yes, thanks JOCI.
Just a quick observation on Katenko and Salut Flo - both have had colic surgery since last seen on the track, I'm certainly no expert but Katenko's sounded particularly nasty based on his trainer's description in her RP stable tour. I do wonder whether colic surgery was a major contributory factor to Camelot's demise on the flat over the summer. Getting to the point for me where I'd rather have a horse prove their well being on the track after colic surgery before I back them again. |
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Sorry guys, no credit to me, they are all done by the excellent Racecaller. I just use them in my analysis.
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Reading them trends above, Radjahni Express seems to hit nearly every one! He's only 6 and surely must have more improvement in him. Look at the way he came up the hill at the festival in March. Having watched that race it was very impressive how he kept galloping and pulled away from Ohio Gold in 3rd even when Ackertac came to get him. For a horse so inexperienced and not used to a battle it was very impressive.
For people saying about top weights having a poor record in the race, Poquelin got placed a few years ago and also won the December Gold Cup off top weight (Ian Popham's claim did help a little) so it is possible if the horse is good enough. I don't think Dynaste is though to be fair, not at 2miles 4f. If Pipe thinks the horse is good enough to win off this handicap mark then why is he not running in the Hennessey? Much better chance at 3 miles than 2m 4f. |
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I use the trends, then evaluate each horse against them in a spredsheet, weighted by the perceived 'importance' of each trends, and based on this, draw up my shortlist of the highest rated (which I listed earlier).
Overall, this approach, whilst fairly simplistic, paid dividends at this year's Cheltenham Festival, and gave some big priced winners (Medinas / Golden Chieftain). I will be doing it again next March. Judorick does something similar too, I believe. |
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Last year it came up with Al Ferof as a joint top rated 100% horse (along with Grands Crus and Quantitativeeasing I think).
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I use them in a similar way but instead of looking for the positives I use, and you will see me say this time and again, the 'balance of probability' to create short lists by eliminating those that look unlikely winners
I then look at each of the remaining contenders and try to make fine judgement calls on the merit of their form, trainer/jockey info, going preferences and so on to come to a betting decision which I tend to spend a lot of time thinking about, weighing things up |
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Trends are history, it's the future you need to predict
 Can't believe some people swear by them and say this can't win that can't win! Especially in the flat handicaps with the draw effect,OMG even the big fella upstairs would struggle to predict that. |
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fcuk off seriously? 32 posts in 8 years and you are gonna criticise folks that have regularly posted all kinds of winners?
no sensible person says can't or won't go back to sleep |
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Whatever you carry on talking ****, you seem to have plenty of it ;) Trends my arse! you are a very silly sheep baaaaa
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34 now because I've been studying TRENDS
 sorry for having an opinion! or should bow down to your superior knowledge? oh and trends lol |
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very funny, you'll be saying form is the past next and no one should bother looking at it
now run along sonny, you are just a kid that knows feck all about punting for serious money pillock, probably an early twenties know all |
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The trends for this race are against the Irish. But why is that? Is it because they have sent the wrong horses over previously or do we think they are badly handicapped in comparison to the UK horses? I suppose I am saying is it a worthwhile trend based on the horses location or is it other factors.
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anybody who uses trends and stats are a million.......they are the same as horoscopes......you will be able to apply a stat to whatever wins the race......
Anybody who was ever guided by stats and speed figures......finished up on skid row..... |
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I always get the Paul Jones book for Chelt festival and anyone who does not take some notice of stats and trends is missing out on some very good winners.It depends on the way you use them and on many occassions you have to be prepared to back 3 or 4 in a race, the problenm for the non believers is that they cant face that as only 1 horse can win and so they just see 3 losing bets. So they pick 1 and one of the other 3 wins.
Sure trends are broken but I certainly would not be backing an older horse for the PP. |