Horse Antepost
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**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**
**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**
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Replies: 458
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Ah well, makes me look a bit stupid
 just passing on some useless stuff seen somewhere about his fitness levels in the spring... |
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Final Ratings after a few important defections:
Rajdhani Express 100% Champion Court 84% Johns Spirit 80% Conquisto 78% Hidden Cyclone 78% Ballynagour 77% Tap Night 74% Rajdhani Express clear top rated, followed by Champion Court. Then a bit of a bunch up behind, with Johns Spirit marginally ahead of the rest. |
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Henderson hasn't got a good record in race has he ?
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So what? He hadn't won the trainers championship since the 80's until last season
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Henderson has had 17 runners, 1 winner and 6 placed in the last 10 years
good enough for me |
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They said the same thing about Nicholls this time last season.
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yep jocci radjahni express looks to have a lot going for him ,will be backing him and 1 other and in my 10 ta follow .
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I can't have him myself. Just can't get beyond his record first time up. Will need to be at his absolute best to give a stone to some really good horses and just think he will come on for this run. Good luck though!
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he's only had 7 chase starts and is 6 years old, basing opposition on first time out record for a horse like that is a bit flimsy, it's like he is 9 years old and hasn't won first time out
and Chemical Nicky nominated this race straight after last win at Ayr |
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What really good horses is he giving over a stone too? Maybe John's Spirit it in light but with Sams claim it's less than a stone and about a fair handicap between the two. Don't think their are any other sleepers with the same form as Radjahni express at the bottom of the handicap.
I will be shocked if Radjahni Express completes the course on Saturday if he's out of the first 4. |
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*not like
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A hard race to work out.
There isn't a top class novice from last season who could improve well beyond his current OR, who could be well in. The older horses are not 2m 5f specialist. So i'm taking a chance on Colour Squadron. Looked a top grade hurdler. Didn't fire last year, but hoping he can bounce back off a very generous mark. good luck all |
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not that hard imo, there;s only 4 or 5 realistic winners, everything else got to do stuff they've never done like win in higher than class 3, or at the trip, or win a chase for the first time, win off marks they've been beaten off before and so on
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Very true if you look at it from your stat angle.
Not knocking it by the way, we all look at races in our own way. I like to look at good class novices from the year before. There isn't any. Secondly a top class handicapper at the distance. There isn't any. A poor renewal for me this is. I'm taking a chance that Colour squadron is better than he looked last year and as good as he looked he could be 2 years ago. Like Tranquil Sea 4 years ago. |
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Radjahni Express form ties in with Changing Times, who ties in with Dynaste and Module from the Jewson. He could be well in on his mark and he has the course form. He could be a 160 horse, who knows? He's only 6 and has the course form.
As I repeat again, Tom George must have been mad not to go for this race with Module. £91,000 prize for the Paddy Power over the optimum trip for his horse and he has course form or £35,000 over a trip that is inadequate in the Haldon. Hmmmm  |
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Let it go Dogg.
He isn't running. Live in then now  |
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You must remember these folk who train horses, they aint the brightest
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Another Rajdhani backer signing in plus a small e/w saver on Tap Night.
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Good thread.
I think it's between three horses Ballynagour - We don't really know how good he is, might have bounced at the festival when sent off a very short priced favourite, goes well fresh, could be well handicapped. Colour Squadron - I thought he travelled like the best at the festival then either dogged it or didn't stay. He has the perfect jockey for his style of racing, he will be switched off at the back which will help his jumping, off a mark of 139 could be thrown in on better ground. Radjahni Express - I echo the other comments on here, he is the potential class improver in the race and Cohen's 5lbs claim could be the difference between winning and placing. Horses like Champion Court, Finians Rainbow etc I can see running well but just not winning off their marks without claimers. Good luck all. |
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My two against the field are Ballynagour and Colour Squadron. If i were to back a third it would have been Champion Court. I think he will carry weight and run a big race. He's said to be in good nick.
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Just looked at last years thread on this race,54 pages and the winner not mentioned till page 53, and no one tipped him!!
Was a better class race, this one looks poor to me.The winner could pick this lot up and carry them I will take a good look Saturday morning but wont be going mad. |
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Correction, Foyleswar mentioned him on page 50, and I see hes tipped Radjhani this time.
About the best reason ive read on this thread for backing him Stuff ya stats,trends, form etc etc, just follow foyles!!!! He knew the class of Al Ferof!!!!! |
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RE Al Ferof 1 year ago
judorick 13 Nov 12 21:04 I will rule him out completely because:- he is slow all of the last 10 winners had won a chase at 2 miles 4 furlongs at least, he hasn't Paul Nicholls has an abysmal record in the race he is very slow and badly handicapped |
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All entitled to our opinion judo. And I don't like backing horses first time up that haven't proved they can win. I dont think that's 'flimsy'.
Colldogg. Nadia de la Vega, Colour Squadron and Johns Spirit all very good horses IMO. And all getting roughly a stone. |
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In my opinion, the ground won the race for Al Ferof last season. From the top of my head only 4-5 horses finished the race, a few of them were rags and over fences Walkon has shown himself to dog it when given the licence to go and win the race. Al Ferof is a very good horse but in my opinion, i don't think he would have won off his mark of 159 on normal good ground in your typical renewal of the race (i.e. Imperial Commander, Exotic Dancer, Our Vic, Great Endeavour etc would have all slammed him off their marks on decent ground). It's why a horse like Champion Court is underpriced without a claimer on board without his mark as it's difficult to see him winning this race, a handicap lest we forget - I think when the ground is heavy/bottomless as it was last year the aspect of a race being a 'handicap' goes out the window and you are better just concentrating on a horse who will act on the ground, is a solid jumper and stays well. Al Ferof ticked those boxes but like many others, I failed to take into account that the bottomless ground renders the handicap aspect of the race, almost redundant, so didn't think he could win off 159. For me, last years race is irrelevant towards looking at this race and future years but it did teach me not to just concentrate on a horse's handicap mark on bottomless ground.
To suppose the above I expect Al Ferof to get exposed as a very good but not a top class horse in the King George where he will likely be underpriced on account of his visually impressive win in last season's Paddy Power. |
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* support not suppose
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I'm not slating Al Ferof either. I'm annoyed with myself for having tunnel vision last year and not appreciating that he is bred and shown himself to be a strong stayer, has a touch of quality, generally jumps very well and acts well on the track so he was an amazing bet last year at 8/1+ given the ground but in my opinion you had to think outside the box and not treat the race as a handicap. I think this years renewal will be back to a regulation handicap type winner.
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May have a touch more quality than you think Swagger, and imo time will tell us that..
Would agree somewhat re the KG though, but that would be more to do with the track rather than how good he is imo. Really think Alf is a proper Cheltenham horse,have always said this after watching the supreme,and to my mind that's where you will see the best of him, whether he can still win top races elsewhere,i don't know,i hope so though. |
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Interesting point re the track Budd, he could deveop into a Ryanair horse. Personally I just can't get out of my head that Ascot race when even though he was a novice, he was in my opinion easily swept aside and outclassed by Somersby and Finians Rainbow (the latter improved after that race as a horse when being held up keeping him switched on and interested to beat targets and not emptying his tank from the front) which puts me off him for the King George etc but I probably do underate Alf as a horse at Cheltenham I would agree with that.
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hardly a mention for my fancy vino griego
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Phillip Hobbs has had 4 winners in his last 15 runners, so had an eachway bet on Colour Squadron now, though i'm slightly concerned that Graeme has backed it.
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re Module .. trainer has said he is more suited to smaller fields for the time being.
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2 against the field for me are F'Rainbow and Hidden Cyclone, I usually prefer to back a second season chaser but imo there is no Imperial Commander, Exotic Dancer in the field this year. So you have to go with a horse that is proven at Grade 1 level. Doubts about them both, Finian's is he fit? If he turns up in Queen Mother Champion Chase form I can't really see him being beat. Hidden Cyclone? Have they got him right this season as he wasn't right at any stage last term. If so his runs as a novice entitle him to a chance off this mark.
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In the 60 running's of this race 17% of the top weights have won, that's just under a fifth of the races. Taken another way, lets be liberal and say an average of fifteen runners ran in each race, that's 900 runners, 10 top weights won and 50 also ran's won, or 50 top weights failed and 840 also ran's.
To invert that data would mean; 93% of horses other than top weight don't win but only 83% of the top weights don't. Given we are looking for an edge and the above clearly hints at one, throw in Finnians 10Lb drop in official ratings and also I alluded to the fact that 12 out of the last 15 winners finished the season as top official rating and only a small minority of the field could possibly achieve that status, then 10/1 would seem very good value indeed. Four against the field: Rajdhani Express, Finnians Rainbow, Astracad and Gift Of Dgab. Here I have a mixture of progressive second season chasers and old guard alike. I thought Astracad was going equally as well as Johns Spirit first time out (hadn't come of the bridal), but McClernon managed to keep Twiston D boxed in as the race began in earnest, then Twiston ran into the back of those infront as they jumped two out and lost valuable momentum, he has a big pull in the weights and will strip much fitter for what has been the main target. Gift Of Dgab has been a plot since he came back from injury, before which he has good form tied in with Flemenstar, he's since had a couple of runs over too far and a final hurdle blow out which has all the hallmark of a Martin swoop. Good luck folks.  |
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Having looked at this for a good while now, I have come to the conclusion that they all have questions to answer and as a consequence I don't think there will be a winner this year. If it was softer I would give a chance to Hidden Cyclone. Good luck
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shockster 15 Nov 13 17:35
Having looked at this for a good while now, I have come to the conclusion that they all have questions to answer and as a consequence I don't think there will be a winner this year. If it was softer I would give a chance to Hidden Cyclone. Good luck That's the best bloody summary I've read and pretty well sums up my thoughts  ...having said that I'll tentatively side with ballynagour, even after the warwick stroll and the weight rise there was still a thought that he was still well handicapped, I'll take a chance that he bounced next time and back fresh again perhaps he can do it. |
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Im come around to the conclusion that Henderson holds the key, but i dont know which one, so i'll be greedy and go for the com f/c......
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shockster
if it was heavy then vino griego would have a great chance given the way he won over C+D earlier this year as it is I think he has a great e/w chance winning course form and visor back on |
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I have thrown £2 on Attaglance. Cheltenham festival winner over hurdles from a yard in blinding form.
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