Horse Antepost
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**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**
**Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013**
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Joined: Date Joined: 05 Oct 03 | Topic/replies: 10,638 | Blogger: zilzal1's blog
Im come around to the conclusion that Henderson holds the key, but i dont know which one, so i'll be greedy and go for the com f/c...... Well if he does z, then not sure what door it will unlock. No serious money for any of his. I backed RE each-way on the day the entries were announced. He was 14/1 2 weeks ago. 12/1 now....don't see a lot of stable confidence there. When was the last time they went 7/1 the field for this race? Could be a right result for the bookmakers. |
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find it funny that CCM uses the 'doesn't win FTO' argument against Radjhani Express yet thinks Colour Squadron, who is a maiden over fences, can beat him first time out
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Colour Squadron will have to improve his jumping dramatically since last season to have a chance in a race like the PP.
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You're a bit of a know it all, arent you judo?
There s nothing 'funny' about it at all. Anyone who has seen Colour Squadron know he needs to improve his jumping. But the fact he is so lightly raced over them, means there is a chance he will. To not even encounter the prospect of him beating RE is whats funny. Just because it doesnt fit your 'opinion', because that's all it is. Last time they met, Colour Squadron ran a decent race despite not jumping well, and tired under a big weight in softer ground. He is 18lbs better off, is a horse I think goes well fresh, and has his preferred ground. Added to that, the stable seem in very good nick. Now he might well not have improved his jumping and disappoint again, we shall see. I find it funny you can get it so wrong (see Al ferof post), yet continue to post as if you are some kind of visionary. |
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Right had a good look this morning,and decided its Champion Court for me,and I also like the Conquisto/Astracad form so will have a couple of back up bets on those.
At the big prices I fancy Carrickboy could run a big race and worth a couple of bob I reckon. Good luck all. |
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No stand out candidate for me, so sticking with the bottom three, all e/w. Nadiya de la Vega, Colour Squadron and Johns Spirit. Good luck!
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Not really a race to get involved in slide rule handicapping imo , best Horse in the race is Finians Rainbow , second best is probably Champion Court?
They are shouting CC from the rooftops so that will do for me at the price ,which is fairly generous gl |
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Tough race. Everytime I look at this I just can't believe the price of Wishful Thinking, it's a bit of an insult.
Last season he came out and had his prep in the Old Roan and won a chelt handicap nto off 162. Same again this year, ran in the Olad Roan, and runs in this off 158. He comes with his risks, he could spit the dummy out, but I can see him running well (stable in form) and 40/1 ew 5plcs with Ski bet, seems fair. I look at the rest, and the youngsters don't give me the feel of potential superstars, and those we know about are exposed enough. Gift of D'Gab and Hidden Cyclone could have more to come if they take to the race. |
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IMO this year it's a lottery. Some will disagree and some will find the winner and well done to you. They say the National is a lottery but this appears a much harder puzzle this year than the National ever does. Had a tiny bet on Hidden Cyclone just because it's the PP and it's a flagship race. Ill disciplined.
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G1 Track/Class 1 NH Hcap races, are very good betting opportunities in my experience.I think JOHN's SPIRIT is a really good bet. Champions Court nb.
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Looks a hard race, I have backed FR at 40 antepost and today will be backing RE ew but i dont see an AL Ferof lurking in the field.
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i'm sticking with nadiya as although now carrying overweight with the jockey goes particularly well off the lay off with ground much better than last years i find it hard to see her out the frame...ballynagour has to be respected for me with the horse still very unexposed...difficult stuff but nadaya for me ew
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John's Spirit for me as he is an improving second season chaser off near enough bottom weight. His light was hidden under a bushel last season by some novicey jumping errors, including when running a good race in the festival novices handicap. Would have finished much closer to Rajdhani Express but for a serious blunder four out. So, he needs a clear round but I was impressed with him over C&D last time out. Rob Conti, beaten into second not for the first time this season, was a fit horse going up in the handicap and the third ran very well at Cheltenham yesterday. John's Spirit has been placed 13/18 times in his career so clearly has ability and I'm hoping he'll continue his improvement today. A good each-way bet at around 17/2 in my opinion. I'll have a saver on Rajdhani Express as he has the best form in the book and a reverse csf on the two.
PS annoying that the race second favourite in this bonus race wasn't listed in the Racing Post ten to follow competition. They must be choosing the horses too early. |
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Concur it looks very trappy.
Small bets ew on Rajdhani Express earlier in the week (don't know why I bothered, could have got bigger price and 5 places this morning) and Astracad who does n't look as poorly handicapped to me as connections would have you believe. Would not be surprised, however, if any of the following won: Finian's Rainbow, Champion Court, Tap Night, Colour Squadron, John's Spirit and Nadiya de la Vega. I can't have Ballynagour as favourite though, it's true he's unexposed but, to me, he's at least equally likely to be exposed as mediocre as to turn out to be a graded chase horse later in the season.Pipe horses still seem to be priced up like they were when his father was running the joint back in the day - I don't like Goulanes in the race which precedes the Paddy Power either. If I'm wrong will be back to hold my hand up later.  |
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Agree about the pipe horse, you cannot even judge if it is good enough for this race. you are only guessing at 8/1, id rather guess with a bigger price.
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Attaglance because I'm following Jefferson this season
Vino Griego because Im following PW over 20-1 selections Kumbeshwar cant let a Hutchinson horse go off at such a big price Easter Meteor no one has mentioned it so I can take all the glory. Good Luck all it is a very tricky race and really I dont have a clue. Lets hope they all come back safe |
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Backed Rajdahni Express. Shamelessly following Judo's opinion! :)
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Easter Meteor falling at the last has certainly cost Colour Squadron the win there.
 WD Johns Spirit backers. |
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Well done winners!
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Well done winners and hard luck to CS backers but he hit evens IR
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wd winners
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Radjhani Express will come on a bundle for the run, travelled and jumped beautifully, no finish
December Gold Cup next |
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Why do you say that Judo? Surely would have been primed for today or do you now think there was something in his first time out record?
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Looked like his handicap rating was the problem.
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think a lot of the NJH horses looking like they need the run tbh but I don't think first time out record for a horse like that is really relevant, sample size too small. How many seasons you basing that on? 2? not enough for me
Anyway, next |
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judorick 30 Oct 13 16:07 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 19,538 | Blogger: judorick's blog
First draft Short List: 40F-452 ASTRACAD (FR) 7 Raymond Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies 61/0P10- BALLYNAGOUR (IRE) 7 Allan Stennett David Pipe 12411P- BENEFFICIENT (IRE) 7 A Shiels/Niall Reilly Tony Martin IRE 2/11151- CAPTAIN CONAN (FR) 6 Triermore Stud Nicky Henderson 0/11121- DYNASTE (FR) 7 John White David Pipe 26033-1 JOHNS SPIRIT (IRE) 6 Christopher W T Johnston Jonjo O'Neill 2F1011- RAJDHANI EXPRESS 6 Robert Waley-Cohen Nicky Henderson 133120- TEXAS JACK (IRE) 7 Robert Watson Noel Meade IRE 33262-1 THIRD INTENTION (IRE) 6 Robert and Sarah Tizzard Colin Tizzard 2P301-1 TRIOLO D'ALENE (FR) 6 Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr Nicky Henderson |
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Given that horses tend to have 4 or 5 seasons I would say 2 seasons is something to go, but that's just me.
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Given that horses tend to have 4 or 5 seasons I would say 2 seasons is something to go, but that's just me.
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* to go on
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Final Ratings after a few important defections:
Rajdhani Express 100% 5th Champion Court 84% Johns Spirit 80% 1st Conquisto 78% Hidden Cyclone 78% 3rd Ballynagour 77% Tap Night 74% Winner 3rd best in trends ratings. |
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Handled with the usual class and dignity judo.... Gamble landed.
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Nice when you watch a horse you've backed go from last to first during the race. Strange that McCoy hardly had a good word to say about it during the Morning Line. The stable must have been on!
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An antepost bet where I win, amazing. After betting Easter Meteor last time out would have been gutted if he'd won. Thought Raj Express run like he definetely needed it. Jumped and travelled so well.
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Don't lay it off next time
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but picking 10 horses is not a skill picking 1-2 is surely?
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Well done winners, including Pricewise who advised it at 12/1.
NJH horses are running like they need it and Pipes are just running terribly. Looked a really poor renewal once the initial entries came out, which is when I lost interest in it, and with Dynaste and Marito failing to take their places it really was a shocker. Still maintain that Module would have won on the bridle. |
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Autocue, the plan was always to lay it off.
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Well its quiet clear that those who touted Colour Squadron knew what they were talking about,that was seriously unlucky.Easter Meteor may have won...who knows,but certainly one of those 2 would have.
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Well done winners. Colour Squadron did appear unlucky. Attaglance ran a blinder too from 6 lbs out of the handicap. Pity RE didn't hit the frame but he jumped beautifully and hopefully can make amends at the December meeting.
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wd winners. The bottom few in the handicap were the ones to concentrate on. Attaglance gave me a good run for a 35/1 shot laid off at 20 but sadly he came past my place only bet-Radjani Ex. on the run in so lost on the race!
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