Ped, well you stick to that theory if it works for you, I prefer to base my own theories on the evidence of how predictable a method is. I don't claim to nail the winner every year, and even if a horse is on my shortlist it doesn't mean I end up backing it but I know I can do better than official ratings. My prediction is that the winner is highly likely to come from either Be Ready, Australia and Toormore. Possibly they won't all train on and possibly one will improve more than the others but as things stood at the end of last season I rated Be Ready having the best chance. I think even if I've overrated him it won't be by too much and assuming he remains in the same form I don't think he'll be outside the first three.

Apart from War Command being better than Australia, how do you see the race?

Be Ready got a very ordinary time figure from me,  shame he didn't get a chance to run in the Dewhurst to show what level he is worth as obviously very impressive at Doncaster in a slow run race from a fair yardstick.

have Australia strictly rated rated below War Command, Kingman, Berkshire, Toormore and Outstrip in that order, with the obvious caveat he's bred to be better the further he goes.

Kingman is still the fascinating one for me. If the chip removed was only minor with no effects on his health and he has been taking his training well, he remains the obvious one to rank well above average from his generation. His debut time figure was outstanding and if he improves on that (including physical maturity) then he will be a champion, absolutely no doubt.

Without trying to batter you with the same question, would you still say that the likes of El Gran Senor and Zafonic, both Dewhurst / Guineas double winners ... only improved  a length from the previous October to the following May?

Taken from "Genetics and Horse Breeding" by William E Jones

On average horses weight increases with age and relates to birth weight. Taking as an example;

Assuming a birth weight of 110lbs

Av weight at 2yrs  887 lb

Av weight at 3yrs  1045 lb

Av weight at 4 yrs 1113 lb

Av weight at 5yrs 1134 lb

So, horse puts on weight, strengthens up, develops bone density,improves fitness, learns how to gallop, learns how to race. Lots of variables - single WFA table is an AVERAGE with no doubt very large variation for individuals.

Toormore being well supported on betfair, maybe a reaction to the significant move on Australia and an expectation that there might be fewer runners with a real chance (assuming that war command went to france) which understand is far from certain at the moment.

*improved more from 3 to 4 in terms of pure speed.

Anybody have an opinion on the mover Lat Hawill? I know once raced horses such as Golan and Doyoun have won the race in the past but in my view they weren't surprise winners, whereas I would be surprised if Lat Hawill can make the necessary improvement to win.

Harry

I think any bookmaker worth calling a bookmaker must lay Australia at these prices for as much as they can. This is exactly the kind of horse they can get beaten.

don't agree stevie in regards goodwood...had they gone faster outstrip may of got more of a lead into the race and maybe wouldn't of had to expend so much energy earlier in the race, having hit the front plenty soon enough...the ground was very tiring that day and outstrip just got tired having gone to the slow ground rail, but had quickened well before the furlong...it suited the closer imo that day and the one paced parbold was eating up the ground close home

GB who i wouldn't use as a gauge to the form in this instance, as think was trained for that one race in the states, like outstrip loved the fast ground over there

Ladbrokes have again cut Australia for both the Qipco 2,000 Guineas and Investec Derby. They bet 7-4 and 2-1 for the races respectively. 2 hours ago

... and yet they still haven't taken a single penny for the horse.

If you were a conspiracy theorist, you'd just say that they were part of huge confidence trick, aiding and abetting the O'Brien hype by continually being the first to shorten the price of Australia and rope in the mug punters .... before O'Brien declares Australia a non-runner 3 days before the Guineas with a stone bruise. He then diverts War Command from France who proceeds to win at Newmarket  Guineas by 8 lengths... and  declares in the winner's enclosure that Australia murdered War Command in a gallop the previous week but is now being packed off to stud....

I still don't understand how Lads being shorter enables them to "rope in the punters"? I would've thought most punters interested in ante post betting are more likely to be racing enthusiasts, rather than the bet on anything that moves for a quick fix type of punter. Even if some of those people want to follow the money surely they'll be taking the better prices elsewhere (Lads have been shorter than every other bookie for some time now), it's not like they'd get turned away for a few quid at the current price.

On Feb 21 Australia was 7.4 on Bf for the 2000 Gns.His price was then cut consistently over the next 3 weeks despite very low levels of trading. Only £6k was seen on BF (£12k traded) to get the price down to 3.5 where pedrobob put up his £3k.Since then, £15k has been seen (£30k traded) at prices from 3.5 to 3.05. What has happened to explain this? The horse has appeared in a gallop in which he showed himself to be alive but  that's all. No fireworks.WC was said to be going to France but that's a comment about WC, not Australia although AOB confirmed his opinion of the horse.

To my mind, the BM's have got some very cheap money into their books. How much of their money was used to move the price on here, i wonder? How much of that intial £6k was theirs? Peanuts for them to do it.And now that there is publicity re the horse, just how well are they doing in singles and doubles I wonder.

If the price doesn't rebound significantly if and when he gets there, I will be amazed.

For him to lengthen considerably there will have to be some kind of proper money for the opposition. For all the talk of the race not being a gimme there hasn't been much backing of his opponents yet. With Toomore expected to take in the Craven it appears there has been a few quid in anticipation of a good run. If he wins like I think he should then he's bound to shorten further. Apart from him it's difficult to see where the serious opposition is going to come from in the market. If Be Ready is ready he'll be going there without a run and I wouldn't expect an avalanche of cash for him. Kingman is an obvious possibility, although there hasn't appeared much confidence behind him since the injury that could change if he works well.

The books are bound to want to get him on the day and lengthen his price to some extent, however, if "the lads" genuinely have belief in the horse that is when their big bets will be struck and he'll shorten up again. Unless Toormore wins his trial very impressively then it's difficult to see Australia not starting favourite if he gets there fit and well.

You could be right, I hope you are as I intend to have some saving money on him, but I'm doubtful. I'm not sure what the exact plans are with Kinston Hill and Berkshire but even if they win a trial I can't see them taking a huge chunk of the market. I can only see Toormore and possibly Kingman as runners punters might really get stuck into. Camelot went off 15/8 and St Nic an incredibly short even money, regardless that one won and one flopped I thought they were both too short.

Stevie, if I hadn't already played in the race I wouldn't be backing him on the day at anything less than 4/1. If I had no intention of backing anything else and the race still looked reasonably strong I would probably be looking to lay at anything under 2/1. My view of the race is different now as I've already played the other 2 I fancy. Playing the percentages I think in most years I could hit the target with the 3 of them on side and I'm prepared to sacrifice a little of the value I have on the others to take a less than optimal price on him so that if either of the other 2 win I win well and if he wins I don't lose much, if anything else wins then so be it.

I don't like them, or anybody else, having too strong a hold on the game either but I don't see it quite as bad as that. O'Brien has had a 40% success rate in the Guineas over the last 10 years but if you'd have taken away those winners it would've left some pretty ordinary classic winners, and the best 2 horses I've seen during that time had no connection to Coolmore. O'Brien has won the last 2 renewals of the Derby (Coolmore the last 3 with Pour Moi but I don't see that as any different than the old days when the Maktoums would be winning with different yards) and looks to have a strong candidate this year but he had a 10 year drought before Camelot won.

I missed that about Be Ready, sint, when did they say that? I would've thought that if he goes for the Guineas he'd go without a run.

Charlie Appleby, based in Godolphin's home base of Dubai during the winter and in Newmarket, UK, for the summer, is looking forward to the European season starting in April following on from Dubai World Cup night.

He said: "I have been toing and froing between Dubai and England during the course of the winter.

"Newmarket has been lucky in that it missed a lot of the rain seen elsewhere in the country and the weather has been mild so the horses there look very well.

"I have an exciting bunch of two-year-olds - some early ones and others for later in the year."

His first winner at the highest level - Outstrip, who won the Grade One Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf on November 1 last year - is being pointed at the first British Classic of the 2014, the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday, May 3.

Charlie Appleby said: "Outstrip has wintered in England and I am very pleased with the way he looks. He has grown and strengthened. The aim will be to take him straight to the Guineas if it is good ground or better, and use that race as a stepping stone. He needs genuine good ground or quicker, especially over the Rowley Mile at Newmarket. The dip on that course caught him out on soft ground in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes last year. He is an athletic horse and on decent ground should cope with the undulations but not on soft ground. You can see in the Dewhurst how he lost his action. He is an exciting horse to have for the summer. He travels well in his races and picks up well so we will be looking at the top mile events in the first half of the season and then take it from there. There is a chance he could stretch to nine or 10 furlongs come the end of the year."

"Sound Reflection is a filly we liked last year. She finished sixth in the Shadwell Fillies' Mile and was not beaten that far after winning on her first two starts. We knew she probably wasn't sharp enough for the Fillies' Mile but wanted to give her some more experience. So we were delighted with that run. She is a filly (by Street Cry) who is bred to get middle distances. She will run at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, either in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas or the Pretty Polly Stakes. We will see how she is. Sound Reflection has wintered well."

"Majeyda, another by Street Cry, won two Listed races last year, at Sandown and Newmarket. Surprisingly, for a Street Cry filly, she acted well on soft ground in the latter race. She is a strong sort and was able to go through the soft ground as a two-year-old. She was also runner-up to Ihtimal in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. I think she will be an even nicer filly on a sounder surface. She will probably go for one of the Guineas' trials and, depending on how she fares, could go for the Guineas after that. I am very happy with where she is at the moment.

"Among the fillies who have won their maidens, there is Folk Melody, by Street Cry out of Folk Opera. She won her maiden impressively at Newmarket in July and was put away after that because we felt she would be a better filly in 2014. She has done well during the winter and I think she will be an exciting prospect for the season. We might start her off at seven furlongs to a mile. She is a filly who could possible go for a Guineas trial. She is pleasing in her general paces at the moment, though no questions have really been asked of her.

"Of the colts, Sudden Wonder had a nice profile going into the winter. He finished fourth to Outstrip on his first run and then came second to Pinzolo, both at Newmarket. He then won a mile conditions race back at Newmarket very impressively by eight lengths in a quick time. He is by New Approach and bred for a mile and a half. He is a good solid horse who will be a lovely prospect when he gets middle distances. We will consider going down a Derby route with him. He has wintered well and will probably go for a Derby trial.

"Then we have Pinzolo who won his maiden and then went to Newbury where he was successful in the Haynes, Hanson & Clark conditions race which is usually a good pointer to the Derby. We ran him in the Racing Post Trophy and were disappointed. At least he gained more experience. He is a big baby. He is a Monsun colt and will only get better with time and by stepping up in trip. He is doing well and we will start him off in conditions events and see how far he can progress.

"As far as the older horses are concerned, I am looking forward to getting Certify back to England. She showed us everything we hoped for when she won the Cape Verdi at Meydan at the end of January. She was fine afterwards and so we went for the Balanchine. Certify was coming into season that evening unfortunately was unwilling to go in the stalls. The following day she was not in the best of moods but came out of race without any problems. Nevertheless, we decided to miss Dubai World Cup night and target her at the Windsor Forest at Royal Ascot. She is a filly who holds her level of ability and does not need much training.

"We are looking forward to Encke running in the second half of 2014. He is going to be a lovely middle distance horse and will want a bit of cut in the ground. We will see how we go. He could start off in the Hardwicke but he will tell us when he is ready. We will not be pushing him. He is a big horse and his action is best suited by give in the ground."

Saeed bin Suroor is looking ahead to the first two British Classics, the QIPCO 1000 Guineas and the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, which are run over a mile at Newmarket during the first weekend of May.

Ihtimal, a leading two-year-old in Britain last year, swept all before her in two races in Meydan in February, winning the UAE 1000 Guineas and UAE Oaks in tremendous style.

The Shamardal filly will run next in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas on Sunday, May 4. Her trainer said: "Ihtimal worked really nicely two days ago and she will go straight to the Guineas. I have been very pleased with her since her races.

"Physically she looks happy. She is a tiny filly but she has a good engine and turn of foot."

Be Ready, a son of New Approach who raced twice last year, could go for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas on Saturday, May 3, and is set to take in a trial beforehand.

Saeed bin Suroor said: "I have liked Be Ready since he was a yearling.

"Be Ready, from the way he worked, showed he had class for the future. I ran him in a Listed race first time out at Newbury (August 17, 2013) and he finished second. He then won a Listed race at Doncaster impressively.

"He may go the Greenham at Newbury (April 12) and we will see how he gets on. Then he will be targeted at either the 2000 Guineas or the Derby. I like him a lot."

The Godolphin trainer added: "We have some other nice three-year-olds but we need to wait and see how they are before making decisions about where they will run. It is a long season and we want to utilise our horses throughout it."

He has only had 2 runs, can see the reasoning tbh.

Could this mean Outstrip is their number 1 for the guineas then ?
Or is it that he has already earned his place and won't benefit from extra experience like Be Ready could.