cheers Pedro.

Just trying to see if what he might be doing with War Command is unprecedented for them. It looks that way to a degree but they often have multiple runners in each race! But WC has been given all the traditional Guineas races from the yard, Coventry Stakes (Henrythenavigator, Power, War Command etc) and Dewhurst.

Mmm. Will Australia even run?

That's why i'm wondering if Australia runs, Figgis.

I'm sure he's an intended runner, sint. I wouldn't rule out War Command running too, unless the betting on here is actually informed money rather than speculative. I just don't believe for one minute that Coolmore would swerve Newmarket with War Command if they thought he had a better chance of winning than Australia just on the outside chance that Australia could win a triple crown. Whether they turn out to be right is another matter but for me they think Australia has a better chance, simple as that.

Willie Mullins is a far better and more objective judge than Aidan.

Even he got blindsided in his love of the Hurricane and made a monumental error in sending not one, but two, possible winners of the Champion Hurdle elsewhere.

If I remember correctly, Aidan said Camelot was his best ever? Scrambled home in the worst Guineas in years, beat a shocking Derby field, couldn't beat a handicapper in the Leger, stuffed in the Arc and by a Group 2 horse twice in Al Kazeem as a 4yo.

Ped, whether he says Australia is his best flat horse ever is immaterial to me, I won't believe it until I see any evidence of it, and I doubt I will. The same for when he said stuff about Camelot. The point is that they thought Camelot was the best of that crop and he was.

Figgis
25 Mar 14 11:34

Does anybody genuinely think that if Coolmore really had faith in War Command being a top notch miler they'd send him to France just to leave the way clear for a horse they've hyped up that might not be able to deliver?

Yes - 100%.

If they think Australia can win the Guineas and Derby if they route War Command elsewhere then it makes perfect commercial sense given that it will give them a superstar stallion prospect (by Galileo out of Ouija Board) and would of course be another boost for Galileo who they own as well. Coolmore are interested in making stallions, the racing is secondary.

Especially as they have lost Montjeu and SNA, Uncle. Losing SNA in the summer was a huge loss for them given he'd have been the new kid on the block.

I'm with Sint regarding the ground. I can't see some cut bothering the horse at all, in fact, given his stamina I think a bit of cut would help his chances over the Newmarket mile. I think jockey and trainer were talking more about very soft or heavy ground, and for me nobody in their right mind would ideally run a top class horse on heavy ground unless it was a known mudlark. O'Brien referenced the Camelot Irish Derby run where it was definitely heavy. We don't know what the ground will be like on Guineas day, but if history is any guide the race is nearly always run on ground no worse than good. The softest I've seen in many years was the day Camelot won, described as 'good to soft' but was just about 'soft' on my scale. If the ground was similar to that I believe they'd still run Australia.

Hills' only entry in the 2000 Guineas is Cable Bay, last seen filling the runner-up spot behind War Command in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.

However, he is unlikely to step up in trip on the Rowley Mile.

"I don't think we'll be aiming him towards the Guineas," said the trainer.

"We want to take our time with him and we're quite keen to stick at seven furlongs for the time being.

"Something like the Jersey (Stakes) at Royal Ascot might be a target."

If it comes up soft at nwmkt I don't think either will run. There has to be uncertainty over whether australia will be ready in time and if he isn't and the ground was OK i think WC might be risked even if not quite ready. It might be his best chance of a domestic classic but not Australia's . Think Australia would be diverted to the curragh if they stick to a mile or even switched to Leopardstown.

AOB's comments about Australia being the best Flat horse etc etc really do make me incredulous, especially given the horses's modest success so far.

Is he really saying that all of his G1 winners below could be regarded as inferior?


Ireland:
1000 Guineas (5):

Imagine, Classic Park, Yesterday, Halfway To Heaven, Misty For Me.

2000 Guineas (9):

Black Minnaloushe, Desert King, Saffron Walden, Rock of Gibraltar, Henrythenavigator, Mastercraftsman, Roderic O Connor, Power, Magician.

Champion Stakes (7):

Giant’s Causeway, High Chaparral, Oratorio, Dylan Thomas (x 2), Cape Blanco, So You Think.

Derby (10):

Desert King, Galileo, High Chaparral, Dylan Thomas, Soldier Of Fortune, Frozen Fire, Fame And Glory, Cape Blanco, Treasure Beach, Camelot.

Matron Stakes (1):

Lillie Langtry.

Moyglare Stakes (6):

Quarter Moon, Necklace, Sequoyah, Rumplestiltskin, Misty For Me, Maybe.

National Stakes (8):

Desert King, Beckett, King of Kings, One Cool Cat, Hawk Wing, George Washington, Mastercraftsman, Power.

Oaks (3):

Alexandrova, Peeping Fawn, Moonstone.

Phoenix Stakes (12):

Johannesburg, One Cool Cat, Fasliyev, Spartacus, Minardi, Lavery, George Washington, Holy Roman Emperor, Mastercraftsman, Alfred Nobel, Zoffany, Pedro The Great.

Pretty Polly Stakes (2):

Peeping Fawn, Misty For Me.

St Leger (2):

****, Septimus.

Tattersalls Gold Cup (6):

Black Sam Bellamy, Powerscourt, Duke Of Marmalade, Fame And Glory, So You Think x 2.

France:
Criterium de Saint Cloud (4):

Ballingarry, Alberto Giacometti, Recital, Fame And Glory.

Criterium International (3):

Mount Nelson, Jan Vermeer, Roderic O Connor.

French 1000 Guineas:

Rose Gypsy.

French 2000 Guineas (3):

Landseer, Aussie Rules, Astronomer Royal.

Grand Criterium (7):

Hold That Tiger, Rock of Gibraltar, Second Empire, Ciro, Oratorio, Horatio Nelson, Holy Roman Emperor.

Grand Prix de Paris (2):

Scorpion, Imperial Monarch.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (1):

Dylan Thomas.

Prix de la Salamandre:

Giant’s Causeway.

Prix du Moulin:

Rock of Gibraltar.

Prix Ganay (2):

Dylan Thomas, Duke Of Marmalade.

Prix Jacques Le Marois:

Excelebration.

Prix Lupin:

Ciro.

Prix Marcel Boussac (2):

Rumplestiltskin, Misty For Me.

Prix Maurice de Gheest:

King Charlemagne

Prix Morny (3):

Johannesburg, Fasliyev, Orpen

Prix Royal Oak:

****.

Italy:
Gran Criterium (2):

Spartacus, Sholokhov.

Gran Premio del Jockey Club:

Black Sam Bellamy.

U.A.E.:
Dubai Sheema Classic (1):

St Nicholas Abbey

North America:
Arlington Million (2):

Powerscourt, Cape Blanco.

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (2):

Wrote, George Vancouver

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile:

Johannesburg.

Breeders’ Cup Turf (4):

High Chaparral x 2, St Nicholas Abbey, Magician

Canadian International (2):

Ballingarry, Joshua Tree.

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic:

Cape Blanco.

Keeneland Turf Mile (2):

Landseer, Aussie Rules.

Man O War Stakes (1):

Cape Blanco.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup:

Together.

Secretariat Stakes (2):

Ciro, Treasure Beach.

England:
1000 Guineas (2):

Virginia Waters, Homecoming Queen.

2000 Guineas (6):

King of Kings, Rock of Gibraltar, Footstepsinthesand, George Washington, Henrythenavigator, Camelot.

Ascot Gold Cup (5):

**** x 4, Fame And Glory

Coronation Cup (7):

****, Scorpion, Soldier Of Fortune, Fame And Glory, St Nicholas Abbey (3).

Coronation Stakes (2):

Sophisticat, Lillie Langtry.

Derby (4):

Galileo, High Chaparral, Camelot & Ruler Of The World

Dewhurst Stakes (3):

Rock of Gibraltar, Beethoven, War Command.

Eclipse Stakes (5):

Hawk Wing, Giant’s Causeway, Oratorio, Mount Nelson, So You Think.

Fillies Mile (2):

Listen, Sunspangled.

Golden Jubilee Stakes (1):

Starspangledbanner.

Juddmonte International (4):

Giant’s Causeway, Duke of Marmalade, Rip Van Winkle, Declaration Of War

July Cup (3):

Stravinsky, Mozart, Starspangledbanner.

King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (3):

Galileo, Dylan Thomas, Duke Of Marmalade.

Lockinge Stakes (1):

Hawk Wing.

Middle Park Stakes (4):

Johannesburg, Minardi, Ad Valorem, Crusade.

Nassau Stakes (2):

Peeping Fawn, Halfway To Heaven.

Nunthorpe Stakes (2):

Stravinsky, Mozart.

Oaks (4):

Shahtoush, Imagine, Alexandrova, Was.

Prince of Wales’s Stakes (2):

Duke Of Marmalade, So You Think.

Queen Anne Stakes (3):

Ad Valorem, Haradasun, Declaration of War.

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3):

George Washington, Rip Van Winkle, Excelebration

Racing Post Trophy (7):

Saratoga Springs, Brian Boru, High Chaparral, Aristotle, St Nicholas Abbey, Camelot, Kingsbarns.

St James‘s Palace Stakes (6):

Black Minnaloushe, Giant‘s Causeway, Rock of Gibraltar, Excellent Art, Henrythenavigator, Mastercraftsman.

St Leger (4):

Milan, Brian Boru, Scorpion, Leading Light.

Sun Chariot Stakes:

Halfway To Heaven.

Sussex Stakes (4):

Rock of Gibraltar, Giant’s Causeway, Henrythenavigator, Rip Van Winkle.

Yorkshire Oaks (2):

Alexandrova, Peeping Fawn.

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What's also interesting is the fact all 3 of AOB's French Guineas winners had a prep race beforehand in the Prix Fontainbleu, so if WC does go to France it's worth bearing in mind for betting purposes. Seems quite significant to me.

The "Lads" will make the final decisions on who runs where, not AOB, so its still more than possible that a change of plans might occur. Wouldn't be the first time with Coolmore.

I think the plan has been influenced by last year's events, their/O'Brien's opinion on which was the better horse at home and what they saw on the track. I'd guess what Australia showed at Leopardstown was what they'd been expecting all along. I still think War Command could earn his place if he started impressing at home and making them question who was the better 3yo. If he doesn't then they'll probably stick to the French Guineas plan. I don't believe that they will stick to relying on Australia in the Guineas just because of some idealistic breeding opportunity that goes against opinion of which horse has the better winning chance. Of course, none of this means their opinion will be proved right, WC could go on to be the better miler, personally I doubt it but until he does nobody can say they are wrong.

As others have pointed out, Figgis, Coolmore are not about gambling or winning prizemoney. What pays the substantial bills of their worldwide racing empire are stallions and their breeding operation. So if War Command represents a serious impediment to creating a triple crown wining stallion, then of course they will send him elsewhere.

No argument with the first part of that. However, unless War Command is really their "best flat horse ever", if Australia is the inferior horse then he must have no better than a moderate chance of winning a typical Guineas. To suggest they'd sacrifice War Command on that flimsy basis appears very unlikely to me, although I do admire your faith in the horse compared to theirs . We'll only know for sure when we see more of WC this year.

there is not a stand out in this Guineas, as you clearly agree Figgis.

Plenty will hinge on how much they strengthen up, train on and come to hand. Unlike you, I think the winner will have to run at least 3-4 lengths quicker to than they do as a backend Group 1 winning 2yo in October, not just a length.

So it is absolutely incredible that having done no serious or fast work (according to a quote in 2013, O'Brien said his en masse opening Curragh gallop was the first "decent" work of the spring), War Command has seemingly been already removed from the Guineas, a race he has on the formbook (at least everyone else's but yours) every chance of winning and is entitled to be favourite for.

War Command is the youngest of the top 10 in the market I think, yet must be near the biggest and hold at least as much scope for improvement as any, despite taking the Coventry Stakes by 6 lengths and being the latest foaled in at least the last 25 years to win that race. Only five April foals won in that period and only two past 8th April - Dawn Approach (23rd Apr) and War Command (27th Apr)

War Command had a similar 2yo career and rates a similar horse to Dawn Command. Can you imagine Jim Bolger deciding that horse (11/8 fav on the day) was not even good enough to take to Newmarket?


Coventry Stks winners and foaling dates

1989    01-Jan    Rock City    Willie Carson    Richard Hannon
1990    12-Feb    Mac's Imp    Alan Munro    Bill O'Gorman
1991    08-Apr    Dilum    Alan Munro    Paul Cole
1992    15-Feb    Petardia    Walter Swinburn    Geoff Wragg
1993    30-Mar    Stonehatch    John Reid    Peter Chapple-Hyam
1994    04-Feb    Sri Pekan    Richard Quinn    Paul Cole
1995    24-Feb    Royal Applause    Walter Swinburn    Barry Hills
1996    04-Apr    Verglas    Willie Supple    Kevin Prendergast
1997    29-Jan    Harbour Master    Christy Roche    Aidan O'Brien
1998    09-Feb    Red Sea    Richard Quinn    Paul Cole
1999    09-Feb    Fasliyev    Michael Kinane    Aidan O'Brien
2000    05-Mar    Cd Europe    Steve Drowne    Mick Channon
2001    28-Feb    Landseer    Jamie Spencer    Aidan O'Brien
2002    05-Feb    Statue of Liberty    Michael Kinane    Aidan O'Brien
2003    19-Feb    Three Valleys    Richard Hughes    Roger Charlton
2004    27-Feb    Iceman    Kieren Fallon    John Gosden
2005    17-Jan    Red Clubs    Michael Hills    Barry Hills
2006    07-Apr    Hellvelyn    Ted Durcan    Bryan Smart
2007    28-Feb    Henrythenavigator    Michael Kinane    Aidan O'Brien
2008    20-Mar    Art Connoisseur    Jamie Spencer    Michael Bell
2009    08-Feb    Canford Cliffs    Richard Hughes    Richard Hannon
2010    09-Feb    Strong Suit    Richard Hughes    Richard Hannon
2011    06-Mar    Power    Ryan Moore    Aidan O'Brien
2012    23-Apr    Dawn Approach    Kevin Manning    Jim Bolger
2013    27-Apr    War Command    Seamie Heffernan    Aidan O'Brien

I agree the matter of a 2yo training on is an all important factor ,but if winning the Guineas depended on horses needing to make as much physical and speed improvement as you suggest then the likelihood is that the race would be much less predictable than it has been. I'd say in most years it's possible to have the winner in quite a small shortlist, Makfi, who I couldn't rate and Cockney Rebel being the only ones that were outside the range for me recently.

As for WC being rated similar to Dawn Approach, I can't agree at all but that's a matter of opinion. I'd say if Bolger thought he had something better than Dawn Approach he probably would've run that horse instead, he didn't though. As I said before, if WC goes on to show he's a very good miler then the conspiracy theorists will be proved right, until then I see it as just that, a conspiracy theory.

To go back to the arguments against Brigust last year, the doubters said that Australia's position in the market was based on hype, the horse wouldn't have the speed for the Guineas, they had a far better candidate in War Command and it was highly unlikely he would even be aimed at the Guineas. Faced with the likely prospect that at least the final point of those arguments is going to be wrong there now pops up an extra argument that Coolmore only want Australia to win (whether he's good enough or not) and don't want the better animal, WC, to mess those plans up. Time will tell, but maybe, just maybe Brigust was right and the simple fact is that the whole affair can be taken at face value and Coolmore do actually believe Australia to be superior?

if winning the Guineas depended on horses needing to make as much physical and speed improvement as you suggest then the likelihood is that the race would be much less predictable than it has been....

Or more likely, it is simply young immature, horses growing heavier, stronger and faster. And doing so at a similar rate, so of course the Grp 1 winning autumn form still holds up a few months later in the spring?

I think most Guineas winning trainers would find the suggestion laughable that their charges are only running one length quicker at Newmarket in May than they did the previous October.

Otherwise 150 years of the Rous WFA scale just gone out the window...

As I stated before, the wfa scale lumps together gains in stamina as gains in ability. When the official scale underrates a horse as a 2yo, such as Footstepsinthesand, Golan, etc, the explanation is that the 2yo improved by leaps and bounds over the winter, yes that can happen but more often it's that the 2yo was underrated in the first place. The same explanation will be put forward if Be Ready proves as good as I think he is. If he doesn't I will have no hesitation in saying I got it wrong, for me, admitting when I was wrong is vital to getting things right, not a weakness.