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2000 GUINEAS (2014)
2000 GUINEAS (2014)
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It's just a personal thing. I don't like Derby horses being trained for the Guineas, especially lightly raced ones as a hard race at Newmarket may set them back. I would much rather the horse was brought along steadily taking the Galileo route of Ballysax and Derrinstown at Leopardstown and trained to peak at Epsom.
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@Pedro assume that was your £3k that has been matched at the 5/2
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Jack, fair enough. The Guineas has proved no barrier to Epsom success in recent years with Sea The Stars, New Approach and Camelot but I agree they're much more likely to have a harder race. Even though runners like King of Kings and Pennekamp were doubtful stayers they picked up injuries in the Derby before stamina became an issue and it's possible hard races in the Guineas contributed to those. Entrepreneur was another, even though I don't think he was a particularly good Guineas winner there's no doubt he was never the same after. On the whole, though, I wouldn't let that put me off Australia's Derby chances if he ran in the Guineas.
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took 8/1 last year, due to the pedigree and the unknown factor, got a few in my book for the guineas now, also backed it at 5/1 for the derby, what has happened to make the horse be so well backed in the last few weeks, something has taken place, lots of people just jump on the bandwagon when these start getting backed. you people, know more about the guineas betting then me, just came out of knowhere that market move. dont fancy australia to win the guineas and the price now is worth laying if you have the funds. maybe aiden knows has
a much stronger chance then war command. |
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looks like pedro's bets been matched, I wonder if we will see the horse sprout wings in the gallops after racing tomorrow.
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someone swiped most of it in one go .... bar 28p
Maybe a euro backer? One of our Irish friends? Probably Aidan couldn't believe his luck at the free money available and emptied the office petty cash..... |
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does anyone know when horses being trained for the Guineas start doing any fast work?
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just seen the RP, obviously not yet if Kingman anything to go by:
Kingman set to head down Frankel path BY DAVID MILNES 9:00AM 23 MAR 2014 KHALID ABDULLAH'S Qipco 2,000 Guineas hope Kingman is to follow in the footsteps of the same owner's Frankel and head to the Group 3 Aon Greenham Stakes over seven furlongs at Newbury on April 12 for his Classic warm-up. RELATED LINKS Guineas betting Free bets The unbeaten son of Invincible Spirit, a general 6-1 chance for the Newmarket Classic on May 3, had his juvenile campaign curtailed after sustaining a chip to a joint a few days before he was due to run in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp last October. Since having the chip removed from his joint the John Gosden-trained Kingman has enjoyed a trouble-free winter at Clarehaven and on Saturday completed his first proper workout of the year on turf. Afterwards, Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to Khalid Abdullah, said: "At the moment the obvious race for Kingman would be the Greenham and that is very much in our minds. John Gosden is pleased with the horse but any plans depend on how he works up to the race." Gosden said: "Kingman has wintered well as you might expect as it has been so mild and he is right where I want him to be as far as the Classics are concerned." |
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And Sir Percy, Figgis.
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Yes, sint, completely forgot about him.
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so War Command goes French Guineas. Pity
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I'll be surprised if that's the way they go. Firstly, Longchamp is unlikely to suit the horse, and secondly they usually send at least two to HQ. However, it was hardly a ringing endorsement for War Command fans.
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French Gns option taken everyone by surprise and explains the Australia move
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There ought to be no doubt now which 3yo colt they believe to be their best, unless some want to believe they'd send their best miling prospect for the French version. Well done, Brig
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"War Command wouldn't like soft ground either, we are training him and Australia for the Guineas but if Australia goes to Newmarket then he could go to France.
"War Command is very well. Colm said he didn't like the soft there today, but that would be the same for all progeny of War Front. Sporting life Not a done deal yet. If Australia doen't go to newmkt for whatever reason, WC could still end up there. And still might even if australia does run. |
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No rocket science involved Figgis but thanks. It looks like you twigged some time ago anyway.
Guineas & Derby – 14/1 Guineas & Arc – 25/1 Arc & Derby – 20/1 Guineas,Derby & Arc – 33/1 Still a long way to go. I'm off on the early ferry so Bye all. |
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No, it isn't a done deal. He could still go to Newmarket, he may still prove to be better over 1m than Australia, he might even start to burn up the gallops and become their first choice, however, the evidence so far suggests they rate Australia a better Guineas prospect, which was the possibility that Brigust argued in favour of.
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the evidence so far suggests they rate Australia a better Guineas prospect, which was the possibility that Brigust argued in favour of.
Just like they did with Hawk Wing, perhaps? He still has to win it.Nevertheless, I agree with the conclusion. |
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already had one top Irish trainer this spring leave his best horses at home in the Champion Hurdle with predictable results.
Are we going to have another one in the Guineas? |
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This example highlights the problem of second guessing trainers intentions. Even if Australia is the better horse, I'm still mystified why Nwmkt and not Leopardstown.
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Why would they run War Command in France when they usually have more than one fancied runner in the Guineas?
Is it because he could ruin Australia's triple crown bid I wonder. |
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Brigust's argument was never that he had to win it, nor were the arguments made against him, the argument was that Australia could actually be their main Guineas hope, not WC. As mentioned before, Hawk Wing was also the general form/ratings choice and the choice of the 'experts' and betting public, whereas Australia hasn't been. The insiders could still be wrong, of course, but in my view it's less likely under these circumstances.
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Well the betting certainly suggested Australia was the number one but that gallop indicated the exact opposite. Despite the likelihood he didn't like the ground War Command appeared to work a good deal better than Australia. It looked as he was never out of second gear. At one point Joseph started to push Australia and nothing much happened. I wouldn't have thought Longchamp would suit War Command at all and of course it's a big kick in the teeth for ante-post backers. The comparison with the Champion Hurdle isn't such a bad one as I am sure Aidan could easily find something else for France where the ground is more likely to be softer than Newmarket. Why not let them take each other on and see who really is the best?
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I still wouldn't be surprised if he did turn up at Newmarket and I wouldn't want to be laying him at double figure prices as is happening now, unless it's the action of somebody with more knowledge than we've been given. The main point, though, is that the French Guineas has even been mentioned for WC, it hardly fits in with the usual very positive statements we hear about their best 2yos, unless he's putting us all away
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2000 Guineas Stat since 1995, horses with a foaling date after 26th March have won just 2 of the 18 runnings (11.1%): Seas The Stars (06/04) and Dawn Approach (23/04)
They have provided 109 (34.7%) of the 314 runners in that period The younger members of the field did however obtain 16 (29.6%) of the first three placings Up against it from the top of the market as far as win purposes are concerned: 27/04 - War Command 14/04 - Be Ready 13/04 - Lat Hawill 11/04 - Berkshire 08/04 - Australia that all points to, for win purposes: 15/01 - Kingston Hill 26/02 - Kingman 12/03 - Night Of Thunder 19/03 - Toormore |
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Imo, WC (current OR119) is/will be, better than AOB's 3 winners of the French 2000 - Landseer (OR120),Aussie rules (OR117),Astronomer royal(OR114)
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Presumably, a late foaling date would have counted more against War Command in a Coventry Stakes than a Guineas? Berkshire was also impressive at Royal Ascot.
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War Command was one of the horses to catch my eye today and as a Dewhurst winner I'm surprised they are looking at France with him. I've backed Australia for the Derby and although I think he will run well I'd be unsure about him being able to win a Guineas. We will see but I was hoping he'd go a bit better than he did in the gallop.
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Not following all this as closely as you guys but AOB's recent French Guineas runners as follows:
2013 Flying the Flag, Gale Force Ten 2012 Furner's Green, Vault 2011 No runner Is n't it a rough race for 3yo colts and draw dependent? Perhaps he thinks War Command is sufficiently battle hardened to cope with the physical demands of French guineas whereas that lovely wide track at Newmarket will suit Australia better.None of the horses above had anything like the form of War Command going into the race though 3 of them had a comparable amount of experience as 2yo. I suspect, though, that it was more of a consideration rather than a definite target and that War Command will still likely show at Newmarket if they think he has a chance of winning irrespective of whether Australia runs or not. The home defence looks reasonably stout to me at this stage so would have thought Coolmore would want two strings to their bow unless they're sure Australia is Pegasus reincarnate. |
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No argument from me regarding Landseer, Aussie Rules and Astronomer Royal, some of the poorest classic winners I've seen. Assuming he does go for the French classic, depending on how the race looks nearer the time I'll still be looking to oppose him, it seems likely he'd go off a short price and I think he'd be very beatable even if he goes there with the best form and chance, because of the farcical way the race is often run it's often a case of run the race 10 different times and you'd get 5 different results, including last year when the best horse didn't win.
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So O'Brien has a habit of sending his second raters to France which makes it even more ridiculous that he is shunting off a genuine contender for our Guineas. Appears to have not done anything similar before so why is he doing it now?
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The way I saw it was he wanted to keep Australia & WC apart. Maybe so Joseph can ride? I'd rather he went straight to Irish Guineas rather than running in France tbh.
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AOB quoted now as saying that Australia the 2nd best horse he has ever trained- after Istabraq. So if Hawk Wing was rated 137 ....
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Not advocating it but that would be a much more sensible suggestion. Much fairer track. I would prefer the Guineas double.
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Even considering some of his past statements that's an extraordinary statement for O'Brien to make. If he's as good as I think I could see him winning a Derby as impressively as Camelot or Galileo but have no reason yet to believe he's any better than that. I think O'Brien had a far stronger Guineas runner with George Washington. I wonder how a trainer can tell if a horse is the "best" or "2nd best" at this stage of its career? I know they can usually tell which is the best of the current crop but as to the best over different years? I would think a lot depends on how strong the current lot are.
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Just revisited Australia's three runs.
On all three occasions he is slowly away. That is not going to be much help in a much more competitive race. He has yet to encounter ground any worse than good. The first two maidens were far from spectacular form wise and despite an advantage in experience you could hardly say he was that impressive in breaking his maiden. If there is any substance to his form at all it clearly depends on how good Free Eagle is and whether he gave his running in defeat. Even if the Weld horse is above average winning a four horse race round a bend is light years away from winning a Guineas over the straight mile. On paper he is bred in the purple but the dam has previously thrown a series of predominantly quirky and unreliable performers. Which direction will he go in? Even if War Command is conveniently moved out of the way there are still enough other promising types to make Australia's current odds look way too short. |
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Has Galileo ever sired a Group 1 winning miler? What's the record of his progeny in a Guineas? Until Camelot won the Guineas on soft ground, which his progeny tend to handle well, his record over 1mile was disasterous at Group 1 level.
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http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/9229074/australia-on-track-for-newmarket
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Camelot by Montjeu, obviously.
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