It was said as a possibility, not a statement of fact. In most ante post markets the more substantive moves begin with small early ripples, apart from wholesale gambles like the Nashwan one, which are few and far between, which is why we have to go back to 1989 to think of an example. Incidentally, I think Nashwan went off the 3/1 fav on the day, Australia is already that price in places. If he gets much shorter nearer the time then it will be apparent to everyone who their main fancy is, but by that time it will be a case of stating the bleedin' obvious, instead of attempting to beat the market.

Australia now 5/2 with the majority of bookmakers, just saying

FELTFAIR, unite/ milligram ah what wonderful era the 70s to the early 90s was.was it miesque that beat her in the 1000

Though does look a good a/w card on saturday and interesting to see how 2000g entry Ertijaal gets on. 2nd to Toormore fto and then bolted up in a Yarmouth maiden but not seen since. 7f should be ok but could struggle to see out a mile. Also like Alutiq in that race, looks a really good renewal.

backed a Godolphin horse,True Story @440
for the 2000G,on here,also on him for the
Derby(been backing him since his maiden).
Should improve a bit this year and I think
he could turn out to be their best 3yr old.
Some winners have come from his 2 races,
both at Nmt.Long way off yet though.
   GL ALL

I seem to remember on the day that Camelot, who was seen as the 2nd coming at the time went off 7/4 and was clearly the top rated 2 year old in the yard at the time. Australia is just a stone cold lay now for me, he might be a superstar but with the ante-post market where it is the quotes of 5/2 make absolutely no sense. My personal opinion would be this is a less one sided Guineas than has been the case in the last few years. AOB has a number of credible challengers.

I admit that this is pure speculation, but this is how I see it when trying to view things through the eyes of Magnier et al.

Coolmore is the most successful breeding operation in the world.

It has built its success mainly around the best 10f/12f horses it can get hold of, such as Northern Dancer, Sadlers Wells, Montjeu, Gallileo.

As such, they target the best middle distance races for their prospective stallions, which for them are the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion, Arc.

They have a prospect in Australia which promises to be a future champion.

How should they prepare it for its 3 yr old campaign?

The evidence is strongly in favour of them starting the horse over 10f at Leopardstown and giving it a middle distance campaign as they have done with all their previous top class middle distance horses. The only time they ran a potential champion over 8f to start with was with Camelot. They won the Gns but at what cost? The horse won the two Derbies but it was never the same afterwards and its Autumn campaign fizzled out. A horse needs a really tough constitution to last the whole year and for every Sea The Stars there must be a dozen or more that failed. Its stud fee is E25,000 . Gallileo's fee is N/A.Others with a higher fee than Camelot are Giants Causeway, High Chapperal,Declaration of War,Mastercraftsman. Those with the same fee are Danehill Dancer,Henrythenavigator.If they want another Gallileo or Montjeu I believe that they will take the traditional proven path with Australia.

Coolmore are breeders and there income from creating a  successful stallion runs into mega millions. Betting success is a by-product for the "lads" not the raison d'etre. They will not sacrifice future breeding income for a few successful bets.

In the light of this, they will not imo rush Australia, who AOB has described as "baby" and who certainly wasn't rushed to be ready for the Dewhurst or RP Trophy.

Clearly, the price of Australia has shortened for the 2000 Gns but we do not yet know why. For me, the A/P bet to be had is the Derby not the Gns. He might possibly run at Nmkt, although I doubt it, but he will almost certainly run at Epsom. If he runs in the Gns and wins or is close-up his price will shrink to nearer evens for Epsom.

For me, the A/P bet to be had is the Derby not the Gns. He might possibly run at Nmkt, although I doubt it, but he will almost certainly run at Epsom. If he runs in the Gns and wins or is close-up his price will shrink to nearer evens for Epsom.

Totally agree that he has a better chance of winning a Derby. However, for me, accounting for what I consider average improvement he is 1 of only 3 horses I've rated within touching distance of winning a decent Guineas. I don't know for sure if he'll run at this stage (although I'm inclined to think he will) and have no interest in backing him at current odds to find out, but if he does run I'll be looking to cover at least part of my Be Ready and Toormore outlay on him at what will possibly be a shorter price. If he's as good as I think he should at least place and then, as you say, he will be much shorter for the Derby. Again, though, his Derby price makes no appeal for me to get involved at this stage and I'd rather place a bigger bet nearer the time at shorter odds if I still rate his chances.

......and max 5/2 elsewhere

ok chaps, have had enough of this mallarkey, if Australis is the second coming so be it, but have put up a lump at 3.6, help yourselves......

Pedro, you'll be very lucky to get anything matched at 3.6!!!! I would lay the backside off that myself.

put it this way. The Laddies trader should be snapping that 3.6 up straight away shouldn't he/she?

Ped, I don't believe for one moment that the "heavy hitters" are much involved in the price move yet, that's if they ever do get involved. As I said before, though, stable lads/lasses bets, bets from word of mouth info and bookmakers taking evasive action due to info can prove to be significant early pointers, and that's my feeling in this case. I have no idea if Lads would be interested in trading for small margins at this stage.

so Sandown is correct then? The "heavy hitters" don't exist and this is a bookmaker spoof gamble?

About time they were forced to reveal actual liabilities they are are taking on antepost races rather than being allowed to get away with suggesting major gambles are taking place?

They keep going shorter than anyone else, but I defy Laddies to come out and say they have taken a single penny on Australia. What "heavy-hitter" would back the horse at their prices?

Laddies must have a massively lopsided book with no money on the fav, are they doing their "bookmaking" job properly? Or are they like an everyday joe punter saying this horse will win (Austalia) and the others won't? No wonder they are up the spout.....

Ped, I think we all know bookmakers exaggerate about large bets. Whether or not that makes it a "spoof gamble" depends on your point of view. I would think that the ante post market liabilities are quite small for most of the runners, but that doesn't mean that any bets that have been placed so far are entirely insignificant.

then enjoy it and let Australia go off some superficially low price and back something else or as we get closer to the day the money will have built up and you can lay Australia at a lower price than your estimate of his % chance of winning. In either case probably most people who haven't got involved yet are probably going to benefit from this state of affairs.

I can't believe War Command fans don't have the slightest doubt and can confidently dismiss the price difference as a "spoof".....

100% confident War Command is a better horse than Australia at 7f as a 2yo and 1m as a 3yo, so no "doubts" for me. Being confident and being right are obviously two different things, that's why they call it gambling. As you know figgis, my doubts are whether Australia will even show up at Newmarket, not whether he will win it

put it this way, if the "gamble" on Australia continues to shorten to under 5/2  when punters at the Curragh this weekend see he still has a leg in each corner, I will expect lays at 3.7 and under on here to be gobbled up. Otherwise I will be asking questions again

figgis, why should I lay at bigger prices than the "heavy hitters" are prepared to take?

Ped, I'm not saying you should, I've said before that it's ridiculous when people challenge others to back up every single opinion with hard cash. It depends on your liabilities. I think War Command is a less likely winner, not that he can't possibly win, just less likely. However, I haven't laid him at this stage as I'm already satisfied with my outlay on Be Ready and Toormore, I will possibly be having a small bet on Australia so I don't want to increase my liabilities further at the moment. It may turn out I've overrated Be Ready but I'm confident in my own mind that he's at least a better horse than Outstrip, that still wouldn't stop me being concerned if the stable began to unexpectedly favour Outstrip.

Just looked at the prices for this, and was stunned to see Australia 5/2 favourite. Think he has 5 pounds at least to find with my two fancies, Toormore and War Command. Toormore's my main bet and I've fancied him since he dispatched Outstrip on his second start. Very happy to take 8/1 on them each now.

Jack, why do you think a Guineas 'prep' for the Derby would be a negative for his Derby prospects?