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And Charm Spirit has just won at Chantilly.
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I've seen quite a few better Guineas winning performances but it was certainly deeper than some.
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Don`t forget the non-stayer Kingman.
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One swallow does not make a summer Felt. If he beats NOT in the St James Palace I may reconsider but not until then. Beating Shifting Power in a slowly run race in Ireland does not a stayer make imo.
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The Guineas was a terrific race,and it is indeed working out fantastically,I suppose it's worth pointing out the pitfalls of figure handicapping in such a good year,the ratings can be low because many of similar ability, The Brigadiers year was possibly similar,some good uns behind.
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I would love to see Australia go on and win the Eclipse and the Arc and stay in training and Kingman and NOT to contest the top mile races. Proper classic form lines in championship races you cannot beat it.
And I hope CDA meets Australia along the way either in the Eclipse or in Ireland but I guess he will go to St Cloud and Deauville for the 4 year old restricted races but he may go to Ascot for the King George and meet Kingston Hill and then the Champion Stakes against NOT. Sadly Farrh has gone to stud. Interesting times ahead I think. |
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~hello brigust,I hope so,terrific stuff
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Hi MJ. I had a great day today. Recouped my losses on this race and some. I have a 20/1 double for the Arc plus 8/1 and 10/1 singles. It's been a slow season that has just got faster. How about you?
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No fancy prices but a good day,have withheld bets from the Arc,but that 10/1 plus you got earlier looks magnificent right now,and all the best.
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pretty sure I heard correctly, Aidan O'Brien on RUK said Australia hasn't done a single gallop on the grass at Ballydoyle all year due to the ground being too soft. That was his single worry going into the Derby.
So the talk about sparkling gallops in the spring.... if they ever actually took place, were all on artifical surfaces? Aidan also confirmed that the cough spread through his yard very quickly and affected every horse. Amazing this was never fed back into the antepost market with the same PR as the "gallop work" |
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Ped, wasn't it 6 weeks before the race, though? I doubt just a cough would've put people off with so long to go.
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I guess it's ok if you'd got over it.
O'Brien saying that many are still affected and he has no idea how they are going to run even now, including Australia back in the Guineas |
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You sticking with Kingman in the SJP, ped?
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The problem with the cough is that you don't know when they get it how long they will have it or how badly they will be affected. They go on the easy list until you think they are clear. Even then it's only when the exercise increases that you know for sure they are clear otherwise you have to stop exercise. Had he had a bad cough 6 weeks before the Guineas he shouldn't really have run. I've known horses not recover their form because they ran too soon. It's the not knowing how bad it is until it's gone that's the problem.
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great race on Tuesday, Figgis.
Don't understand why Kingman fav as had no excuses at Newmarket as far as I was concerned. Beaten by a better horse on the day and Ireland was a non-event which didn't prove anything other than what we already knew, a very good horse. Can only assume people think Night Of Thunder fluked his Newmarket win or they think Kingman underperformed. Given Good to Firm ground, difficult to see how Kingman can be a better horse given his trainer's reservations and last year's Sandown win where he moved poorly on quick ground? From a value point of view, personally would have to go with War Command, though guess you obviously don't think he's anywhere near this level? |
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Ped, I don't think it necessarily has to be considered NoT's win was a fluke to have doubts that it would be repeated. I think he won fair and square on the day but I would have far more faith in Kingman putting up a repeat showing. I think the only way War Command will finish close is if both the front 2 underperform or there's no pace on and we get a compressed finish.
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I will be staggered if it turns into a sprint. I think the only way to beat Kingman is on stamina he looks too fast to outsprint. So the important thing is that RH doesn't go too strong too soon and kill his mount early then, if stamina is an issue for Kingman something else could win by default.
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Ped, AOB said 2 weeks before the Derby Australia had the cough for 7-10 days and he was well over it ( at time of quotes ). If it was as bad as it sounds, re his yard, then he would not be having the winners he has had. When you look at other yards who get bugs, viruses etc some of them have to completely close down. I think folks have to remember AOB does put out a lot of PR lines, his bosses are big breeders afterall!!
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Twas too early to knock the Greenham form (anti-Kingmans ;) ) Master Carpenter wins a Group 3 yesterday.
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Anyone recall the last time(prior to 2014) the 2000 guineas had the English /Irish & French Derby winners in the field?
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I think this coughing set-back for Aus has been proven to be b0llocks by virtue of the fact AOB pulled out Geoffrey Chaucer from the Irish Derby for coughing yet he declared/supplemented him for the German Derby 36 hrs later. This mob will use any old excuse. Wakey wakey.
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It's all about the breeding ££££'s.
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Not doubting that Aus had a cough, but am doubting the seriousness and significance of it, in light of Geoffrey Chaucer and the fact it was 8 weeks before the Guineas. Basically they took the Guineas defeat badly but if they really want to prove it wrong they could run him in the Sussex Stakes. Simple.
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GC ran really well for a horse who coughed a week ago. On that running the fact he coughed must have been untrue. Goodness I wonder where he would have finished had he really coughed.
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For future reference it would be good to know why AOB supplemented a horse into a race 36hrs after a cough. I don't know why that would happen. Any vets around? I know Mick Fitzgerald was similarly dumbfounded and confused when asked the question on ATR on the morning of the race. But then I would not expect a TV personality to rock the boat. Naivety does not pay the bills.
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Geoffrey Chaucer actually ran 26 lengths better in Germany than at Epsom. I love evidence. Will always see you right in the long-term.
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Horses cough. Fact. Why do they cough? That has to be determined by other evidence. Often evidence there isn't time to gather when close to a race. Had they run at the Curragh and got stuffed then reported afterwards that he shouldn't have run because he coughed what do you think the punters would have said? The evidence gathered over the next couple of days may have said the cough wasn't due to well being. So why not run again. They may now think there is something wrong with the horses well being. He has run very poorly the last twice suggesting something is wrong with him. Time will tell.
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Evidence rules. None of this backfitting nonsense.
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The evidence shows he, GC, should have finished in front of Orchestra and Pinzolo in the Derby. There is clearly something wrong with the horse. That is what the evidence shows.
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To be retired afterwards ?
Meanwhile, Aidan O’Brien reported his dual Derby winner Australia to be in fine form following his Curragh romp a couple of weeks ago. “Australia has been in terrific form since landing the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby and he will now be trained for a tilt at the Juddmonte International Stakes at York and the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown.” |
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No-one really agreed that Coolmore could possibly be bad for racing yet many continually slaughter AOB at every turn.
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The evidence shows that GC is very very ordinary.
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