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2000 GUINEAS (2014)
2000 GUINEAS (2014)
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I downgraded Toormore's craven to 114 which is what I would have given had I used the same allowance as the 6f race but I chose to factor in some wind based on last 3 races and other races and the reports I saw on the met office site. However after his performance in the 2000 and the performances of The Grey Gatsby and Postponed it's clear I overrated it.
I still have him running 4lb below the 114 in the 2000 and I do think he maybe hadn't fully recovered from the craven effort but I can't see him reaching the top level myself and I'd expect War Command to beat him if they met in the Irish Guineas. |
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people were saying sky lantern was over rated? wasnt following the 1000 guineas last year, was value bet against a horse that was cherry ripe that day in the trial race. did get the irish 1000 guineas winner, based on that newmarket form, sky lantern was one of my fav horses last year and did win the race a touch cosily
 , on the cover of this years formbook. |
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Of course I may have changed my thinking by the time the Irish Guineas comes along and it'll depend on the prices anyway.
Also if it came up soft ground then that would change things as well. |
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It's not that I rate his form per se, Harry, but more the fact i'm a fan of his size and potential scope for improvement. I think his sire's progeny generally get bigger and better as they mature.
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yep no doubting his sire and i am waiting to see him on proper summer ground but still have reservations about his form...his next run will tell us more or me anyway
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fallon talking to Nick Luck on ch4 now saying if he met Australia and kingman again he'd beat them a lot easier.
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Yep, quite possible given his hanging. Though you could argue a track with a bend (Ascot) might suit Kingman more. Interesting clash when they next meet for sure. Plus a fully fit WC.
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Kingman going for Irish 2000.That's a surprise.
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It is a bit yeah. They must feel he was a bit unlucky at HQ but ofcourse on form he has a favourite's chance anyway. Any ideas as to Johnny G's record in the Irish Guineas? I think AOB has won 10 !!
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AOB's record in the Ire 2000gns is nothing short of incredible
Would think that War Command will be his no1 hope for the race atm. He will come on a gd bit for his 2000gns run over here last Sat. Be interesting if Kingman takes that route, but I would have thought he would wait for Royal Ascot & hope for gd ground (again) |
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Mile standard times
Newmarket 1.35.1 Newbury 1.35.8 Goodwood 1.36.7 Longchamp 1.37.4 Curragh 1.38.8 Ascot(round) 1.39.8 and staight 1.38.8 French Guineas maybe Kingman`s best chance if there are stamina concerns but might come a bit quick for him. |
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Way 2 soon imo.
Looking at his Greenham romp & then the 2000gns run, its poss he left a bit of himself in the trial  , maybe a horses how needs a bit more time between his races??That's why I would wait till Royal Ascot with him & hope the ground is not 2 fast and its on day 1 of the festival, so he will prob get gd ground to start the wk. |
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Gosden informed us that soft ground was needed for this chap,not much chance to run on that surface during the summer months(possibly?),so a good decision I believe.
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How people can talk of Ascot on firm ground is beyond me?
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French guineas for Kingman , yes agree, slow , slow , slow then dash for the line ooh la la
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Kingman won't go to Goodwood with dodgy legs. The only Gr1 chances are at the Curragh and Ascot I would have thought.
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Or the July Cup.
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Talk about blowing things out of proportion. He had a chip removed from an ankle, basic key-hole surgery, now all of sudden he has ''dodgy legs''. Lets ignore the fact though he's won the Greenham and finished 2nd in a Guineas. He's clearly not over his injury/setback at all.
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And lets ignore the fact his trainer is prepared to run him in the Irish Guineas, which is exactly 3 weeks after Newmarket and 5.5 weeks after Newbury, meaning 3 races in under 6 weeks. Hardly the course of action taken by a top trainer with a horse who has ''dodgy legs''. Lets stick to the evidence.
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The facts as you call them Sin are that Kingman has had surgery, he did run at Newbury and Newmarket heavily bandaged and JG has said he ill swerve firm ground. In my book that means he has dodgy pins. Running a horse on a switchback track like Goodwood would be far from ideal and I would be extremely surprised if he ran in the Sussex. That's called 'addressing' the facts not 'ignoring' them.
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Have to agree with brigust1 this time
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Facts are that he had over 200 days off to recuperate and has since raced twice since and improved his OR each time. Guess it's about interpretation.
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sintonian
No, its not about interpretation, its about risk, the potential worse case outcome, the probability of it occurring and the attitude towards that risk by connections. The worst case is that the horse breaks down, possible having to be put down or at least never racing again. The probability of it occurring increases with the stress placed on the ankle which will be related to stress imposed byspeed, ground and course factors. The connections will be mindful of this and will no doubt be risk averse. Fast ground, undulating track will be risk factors. The number of days off, OR are irrelevant. |
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It's about interpretation if people are choosing to listen to what connections are saying. I would rather judge them by their actions personally.
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I.e 3 runs in 6 weeks would allay any fears of the horse having dodgy legs, imo.
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Its hard to judge what connections will actually do, probably as hard as judging chances of winning. I judged that Australia would avoid the 2000 Gns and be sent down the middle distance prep route that AOB has used so successfully in the past given that only Camelot has completed the Gns/Derby double for them and given that the Derby is a far bigger prize for Ballymore. So, on that basis, who knows, Kingman could well turn up of fast ground for the Sussex over an undulating track.
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Agree with sint on the Kingman soundness part, the horse is showing no signs of any probs in his races & after them by all accounts. The fr 2000gns is a no no in my book, he got a tough enough race last Sat. If he does go to Ire (2000gns) he would hold a big chance, but for me, I would wait for Ascot which would give him more time between races.
We shall see. |
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JG has said he ill swerve firm ground. In my book that means he has dodgy pins.
Can anyone remember any Group race run on Firm ground in Europe in the last 15 years? |
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JG talking rubbish then or maybe just the bleeding obvious Ped. Couldn't imagine him saying that if he horse had perfect legs but hey ho.
My 2014 2000 Guineas summary. 1. The CoC stated the fastest ground was down the middle. 2. Coincidentally all races before the 2000 Gns were run straight down the middle. 3. No horse ran down either rail at all before the 2000 Gns. 4. In fact a definite though slight emphasis from the middle to the far rail was obvious. 5. Soumillon never had a ride prior to the Guineas probably never walked the course etc and dived for the far rail carrying a few with him who may have wanted to race down the middle. 6.Similarly Hughes headed for the stands rail ensuring two groups. This move baffles me. 7. Toormore was racing for longest on the worst ground and must have suffered the most. 8. The Godolphin horse following directly behind Toormore finished last. 9. The horse next closest behind, Ertijaal, finished 2nd last. 10. The position down the stands rail was clearly a disadvantage. 11. Night of Thunder probably won BECAUSE he veered across the track. 12. At first when he challenged he looked held then as he strayed onto the faster ground he gained momentum to lead close home. 13. Although he lost about a yard crossing the course (Pythagorus) he travelled nearly half a furlong on faster ground than any other runner. 14. The 1000 Gns was also raced down the middle. All in all a mess. |
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yes i would agree with that.also we have not touched on the improved performance from the greenham of NOT,found a well above a stone on form to reverse with kingham over a new trip,now did kingman stay?or was NOT nowhere near fit in the greenham?.Noozah ran the race of his life,after making the strong pace far side,all these things do point to a far side advantage,but i must say Australia beating a 107 rated big improver on the stands side does little for the form at the minute,but that could change on sunday if that horse runs a big race?
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The owners of NOT ran him because they thought he would give Kingman more to think about this time.
About Australia I guess the worries put forward before the Guineas may have been well founded. AOB usually prepares milers for the Guineas with Camelot the exception who won a terrible Guineas. He would not have won this one. In all probability (Bayer theorem) Australia should have had a prep run only him, Kingston Hill, Outstrip and War Command hadn't had a prep run and I think they suffered for it. Still confirms my opinion that AOB would not be my trainer. With Nooz still in front in the final furlong showed it wasn't a demanding pace so the jury is still out about Kingman's stamina he may well have not got home also making NOT look as if he was finishing fast. Basically Kingman won on the far side by 2.75 lenghs from Charm Spirit with Nooz a half length away in third and The Grey Gatsby in 4th. |
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agree the race looked an unsightly mess, Brig, though ultimately pretty sure the best horse on the day won and would have done so wherever he ran.
Can only blame jocks and trainers for the two groups, imo, the clerk called the best ground in the centre and not one of them wanted it. The winner only visited it because his rider badly lost his balance under a right hand drive causing his mount to hang (though Fallon said his horse saw the gate  )At least it was a solid gallop, so no excuses for anything. Good shout with Australia, Brig, every chance he will still prove best of his generation, obviously at further |
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The move wasn't planned Ped I'm sure of that but on the hill it does get faster and with Kingman possibly not staying, Australia had run his race winning the near side it all made NOT look better than I think he is.
Not sure about the good gallop either. Soumi darted for the far rail carrying unwanted guests with him and knowing his horse was an unlikely stayer will tried to have saved a bit. Either he is better than we thought or the slower pace helped him finish so close. I did say in an earlier post I would be laying him to trade at a low price in running but being away I wasn't able to do some of the things I wanted. Good call by you Ped laying Australia and I think that putting your money where your mouth is is the real test. Well done. |
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As a viewing spectacle the split certainly aint ideal.
Brig as Aiden had 6 previous 2,000 GNS winners without a prep why on earth should he change for his no 1 hope Australia. |
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Geoff 5 of he six were milers so this would have been their Derby. Camelot was the exception but he only narrowly won a poor race. That is why. He has also had a lot of losers who clearly never ran to form. Add to that there were sound question marks about the form of his stable something John Gosden and Hannon had no worries about but still went for a prep race. Poor decision imo, very poor.
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Night Of Thunder 26.22
Kingman 26.34 Australia 26.00 The first 2f sectionals,If Australia had gone far side ,we can assume he would have settled better? |
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The ground does appear slower standside in those early stages at least.
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I didn't watch/record the Sunday races I only watched the other Saturday races last night. Nothing touched the nearside they all seemed to be centre t far side. Even then the stayed clear of the far side rail. I would therefore assume the nearside rail was not the place to be. In the fist furlong JOB looked completely lost not knowing which way to go until he eventually migrated to the nearside rail group. I wouldn't read anything into the fist 2 furlong times where Nooz instantly carried his small group to the far side and was under way almost immediately.
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In fact the times some way support the fact that Soumi didn't go off at sprinting speed in an attempt to get the trip.
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yes,and surely the miler to take out of the race far side for a better firm ground possibility?.
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