Horse Antepost
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This thread aims to bring together everyone's thoughts on the 2000 Guineas as the big juvenile trial races take place in Sept/Oct, and the Ante-Post markets hot up and change dramatically.
No doubt all of our thoughts could change through this period, but hopefully we can sit with one or two big priced AP tickets before they shorten up going into thr winter.
For me, at this moment I think AOB holds the aces, and my two Ante Post priced bets are:
AUSTRALIA 14/1 - after his Group 3 romp yesterday. (Camelot route? - 2000 Guineas on the way to the Derby).
GREAT WHITE EAGLE - 20/1 - following his debut win.(travels like a dream, has cruised to both wins, next time will reveal all).
Both also seem to have a different Group 1 planned as there finale to the season, so I am hoping for a victory each, and both to stand side-by-side at the head of the market going into the winter.
If I had another bet, it would be to take another piece of Joe C's 14/1 about AUSTRALIA before that stand-out price in the market, disappears.
AOB's comments on AUSTRALIA's victory was
"We have always thought there was something very different about him. We really have always thought the world of him. He doesn´t know he´s a racehorse yet. He´s very special. It was good experience for him today, he had to come round and pass horses. He doesn´t have to run again this year but there is the Racing Post Trophy there and even the Dewhurst. He´d have enough pace for that"
No doubt all of our thoughts could change through this period, but hopefully we can sit with one or two big priced AP tickets before they shorten up going into thr winter.
For me, at this moment I think AOB holds the aces, and my two Ante Post priced bets are:
AUSTRALIA 14/1 - after his Group 3 romp yesterday. (Camelot route? - 2000 Guineas on the way to the Derby).
GREAT WHITE EAGLE - 20/1 - following his debut win.(travels like a dream, has cruised to both wins, next time will reveal all).
Both also seem to have a different Group 1 planned as there finale to the season, so I am hoping for a victory each, and both to stand side-by-side at the head of the market going into the winter.
If I had another bet, it would be to take another piece of Joe C's 14/1 about AUSTRALIA before that stand-out price in the market, disappears.
AOB's comments on AUSTRALIA's victory was
"We have always thought there was something very different about him. We really have always thought the world of him. He doesn´t know he´s a racehorse yet. He´s very special. It was good experience for him today, he had to come round and pass horses. He doesn´t have to run again this year but there is the Racing Post Trophy there and even the Dewhurst. He´d have enough pace for that"
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AUSTRALIA's price with Joe C, went by 11.10am, now only 10/1, which is the top market price.
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Nice boast to Toormore form there with Outstrip win in the Breeders cup Juvenile mile
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Also gives a boost to War Command
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think the fast ground helped Outstrip tonight compared to his Newmarket run
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Indeed Gouger, I think that form line is pretty decent, especially as the American's clearly rated their juvenile in the race as it was heavily punted.
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Fallen, do you not think the fast pace and ground played to outstrip's strengths tonight?
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Plus according to RPR the American horse ,Bobby's Kitten, was rated 14lb inferior to Outstrip
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Agree that the fast pace would have suited him, I generally think that whole Toormore, War Command, Outstrip form line is decent and Newmarket could ride good on the day which would suit all three horses. There is always a fairly good pace on in the Guineas which would also be helpful for those that need a strongly run race. Bobby's Kitten I get the impression was on a sharp improvement curve, to be fair he had only had three runs so had plenty of scope. That he finished 3rd at least places the fancied horses in the leading spots.
Be interesting to see where Giovani goes and if he turns out before any of the other horses line up for next year 2000G. |
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Does anyone know whats up with Ertijaal? Did not been out since winning his maiden. Thanks in advance
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Cannot believe the market on here. Currently 95% with 60+ horses listed. The front six or seven in the betting amount to about 60%, that is way overbroke. What can come out of the woodwork to win the 2000G? If you cannot name or think of one then help yourself to the value.
I`m hoping to well overs come May.  |
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The one thing i would say about out strip win was he very lucky as when you look at the ride j.c gave bobby kitten it was horrible viewing going so darn hard on an two year old like he did.If that horse had been given a more sensible ride i do not doubt bobby kitten would have won,I know many where shaking there heads in disbelief at that ride and rightly so.As to next year guineas there so much to think about with long term antepost investment (a) trainers track record of having an horse ready for the day either had pre trail on course or been ready at home (b) will the horse you like in question train on from two to three year's of age, (c) how confident you feel about making long term investment praying the horse makes it through winter months until next may.
That just food for thought for you all everyone views are different i understand that. Right now the two that really stand out for me are Toormore he been there and proven himself on track at three different levels and tracks despite being an more back would looking two year old who will fill out his frame over winter very much excited to see how far he goes as an three year old. And second one that has been a proper surprise late package has to be Kingston Hill shown top class forum in an short space of time and for me looks like he will not grow much more but will fill out more over the winter months.His win at Newmarket was impressive but then you see what he did in the racing post trophy and looked a very serious horse for next year.I know many where talking about derby but to naked eye he looks like he has a lot more natural pace with the way he travels through his races,and bonus is you know he will handle the rowley mile dip and looks like he will make an out standing three year old. They are the two for me as for kingman can not get exited by him and how he is antepost favorite does make me laugh was not really that taken with his win at sandown and now his had an injury but know doubting J.G will have him spot on if the horse is right very clever trainer |
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Unbeaten Godolphin colt Piping Rock, who has died after a bout of colic, won the Horris Hill Stakes and was about 20/1 for 2,000 Guineas
Curse of godolphin strikes again |
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Just seen this about Piping Rock what a loss to Hannon/Godolphin
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its the time of the year where the now 3yr old will be coming in off the grass and starting their prep for the Newmarket Classic.
for me this is not as clear cut as other years, Toormore and War Command on paper make best fits for what would be a traditional 2000 Guineas winner. However the general form of War Command has me against him, usually i have the Coventry as the race to follow winners out of but this year was abysmal and for me given his sire should be aimed at the KY Derby. Toormore just has an unfashionable sire and was bought too cheap for me to be taking 9s about him. the big talking horse this year has been Australia but regardless of his trainers hyperbole i have him more of a derby horse than Guineas horse and i think he'll be cooked for speed come the dip. speaking of the dip my own plunge horse Great White Eagle an big breeze up purchase looked my type of Guineas horse but for him to not be able to handle the G1 pace in the middle park and then becoming unstuck in the dip, at very big prices on here im happy to take small bites but would be for selling off come the Ballydoyle gallop on the Curragh opeing fixture. Wachmans G1 winner Sudirman is one that takes my fancy and fun prices, yes he was made look better by a stong wind behind him when he won his G1 but his over all form is good and he should improve from 2 to 3 and the trip of a mile is perfect, negatives would be soft ground which all but ends his chances. Kingsman is our other talking horse, lots to like about him but i never fancy Gosden for this Classic as he prefers to let his horses come to him and i think he'll have his best days come later in season and should be a better price (sp) for the St James Palace of which id be all in for him. Kingston hill won the RP in a staying fashion and i have him down as a NR. |
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Kingston being aimed here as per trainer last week - dont think he will have the toe either tbh
Varian rules out Guineas prep for Kingston Hill BY ANDREW DIETZ 10:57AM 6 JAN 2014 RACING POST TROPHY winner Kingston Hill will either start next season in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas or take in a trial for the Investec Derby, according to Roger Varian. The trainer is keeping Classic options open for Kingston Hill but one thing that has been determined is that the Paul Smith-owned colt will not prep for the Guineas. “We’d like to start him in the 2,000 Guineas but it’s a blank canvas,” said Varian. “His homework towards the end of March will tell us a lot. If he doesn’t show enough zip we’ll go to a Derby trial but my expectation is that it will be Newmarket. We don’t plan to give him a prep run for that. A trial could be one unnecessary race in what might be a long season for him.” Kingston Hill is 10-1 generally for both the Guineas and Derby after winning three races in the space of five weeks, all on ground with soft in the description. “A 2,000 Guineas on fast ground would be a different dynamic to what he has experienced, but I’m very confident he’ll be as effective on faster ground,” added Varian. |
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cheers BJG, unless it is shaping up to be soft, soft to heavy i cant see him bothering to turn up.
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Does anyone have any opinion on Night of Thunder?
I thought he looked really good in his first 2 starts and Richard Hughes is a fan. |
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Winning times not brilliant but won comfortably both outings.Could be anything and a price over 30/1 could be generous but also may reflect a lack of confidence in the yard.
Basically I haven`t a clue. |
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Fair enough, I thought visually he was very impressive and could have won by further. It's hard to know what the form is worth though; Stubbs and Aeolus are unexposed and you would have to think Rufford is overrated at 107 which seemed to be given solely on his 2nd to Supplicant.
It looks a wide open Guineas to my eye. Kingman could be special and War Command probably has the best profile for the race and Toormore deserves to be favourite given he finished champion 2yo. None of them have entirely convinced me though and I think it may be worth taking a chance on Night of Thunder. He looks bred to get a mile and the way he accelerated when Hughes gave him a shake of the reins suggests he is very talented to my eyes. I'm confident he'll turn up and I think the stable rate him too. Anyone know the last horse to win the Guineas having never raced over 7f+ though? |
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From memory could it be Island Sands?
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Before my time Howellsy so not sure. I got back to Rock of Gibraltar and they all had.
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That's right, Howellsy, there have only been two in the last thirty years, they were Island Sands and Mystiko, who also happened to be two of the worst winners I've seen.
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Were the races worse than Camelot's Guineas? That was a truly dreadful affair.
Do you have any thoughts on Night of Thunder Figgis? |
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I agree, thornton reed, Camelot's wasn't a good one but personally I'd say they were a bit worse. I rated NoT's debut performance quite highly but didn't have him improving on that next time, although he did it nicely enough and I couldn't rule out the possibility he's capable of better. At this stage, for what he's shown on the track I think he's short enough, Toormore is the obvious one from the Hannon camp but I also rate Shifting Power higher than NoT.
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Fair enough. It's a tough race to assess so far but looks to be fairly open at this stage.
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apart from kingston hill, what would be the most logical alternative if the Guineas was to be run in soft soft to heavy conditions
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mystiko won over 7furlongs, the free hcap
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Yes, my mistake, I was thinking of 2yo form.
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I like the hannon hoss think he could be a good un.....
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anyone give berkshire a chance i have taken 25/1 and hope he just turns up on the day as on looks alone i feel he will go off at 11/2 by a long way the best looking colt i have ever seen .form is patchy especially his second run still hes unbeaten and i have nicked some value anyway
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Sorry can`t have Berkshire at all.
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good reasoning feltfair
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 Could still be anything really. He's had two runs, won them both impressively, size and scope too! |
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My reasoning is almost exclusively the clock. Other variables considered but the clock is the fundamental. The latter leads me to Toormore, Kingman and War Command. Not original I know but can`t see past them unless it is desperate ground at Newmarket and then I`ve done my bollocks.
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feltfair - out of interest from the 3 horses you mentioned what time figure caught your eye?
in regard to what say what berkshire achieved say at royal ascot as the comparison bare in mind also that we are talking in terms of a 25-1 rag here - so how have you got the others so far clear, considering exclusively the clock, as you yourself have put it just interested to here your opinion in this regard |
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Toormore - Goodwood July 31st and Curragh July 31st
Kingman - Newmarket June 13th War Command - Ascot - June 13th,Curragh August 13th, Curragh August 24th and Newmarket October 13th. All of the above races when adjusted for the going and weight carried were all below standard. Other considerations were the visual impression, of which War Command`s Ascot win was the pick for me. There are others that did fast times but I believe there could be stamina questions which I don`t think apply to those mentioned above. Australia is clearly highly thought of but I am not conviced he is Guineas horse. I burnt my fingers on St Nicholas Abbey a few years ago in the Guineas and I don`t want a repeat. Overall I hope to trade closer to the time and have everything green but the above will be my good winners. Re Berkshire and times he ran 4.7 seconds above standard at Newmarket over a mile on good to firm whereas War Command ran 2.56 seconds above standard on holding good to soft ground over 7 furlongs at Newmarket. That`s why I can`t have Berkshire. Of course I could be totally wrong, horses have a habit of making fools of you but for me Berkshire will have to improve dramatically to figure in the Guineas. If he runs and my trading goes as planned he will be just but only just in the green. |
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Entries today of 73 with a supplementary stage end of April.
Notable absentees for me ,Nonaynever and Hydrogen. |
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the very very wet spring in Ireland will prob scupper any Irish hopes at Newmarket, certain grass gallops will be have been waterlogged and the storm winds wouldnt have helped them either. im looking to France for the value in both contests
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DMCK im looking to France for the value in both contests
Karakontie for the 2000? Vorda for the 1000? Vorda does look overpriced at 20/1. |