australia on the move has it bin tipped somewhere

probably been allowed out of its box for first time this winter and they discovered still had 4 legs.....

I think it might be a bit more than that, ped. I've spent a lot more time on that card since the season ended and my thinking now is that Brigust was right and Australia is clearly better than War Command. If he shows the right signals in time for the Guineas I reckon he'll be their number one. Just to add, no aftertiming here as I still haven't had a bean on the horse, may do nearer the time though if he's a guaranteed runner.

yes 7 with betty 365 and 6 in most places the ok coral r still 6 on the net if u quick

....if Australia dips to under 3/1 on the exchanges, will have to start laying.... heavily.

my thinking now is that Brigust was right and Australia is clearly better than War Command

now let's not get in the way of facts, figgis.

Brigust by his own admission has absolutely no idea how good Australia is. He is just relying on Aidan's annual Coolmore hyperbole to be correct this time..... even though he readily accepts that it may be just that - hyperbole.


Surely this statement needs a qualifier to be added such as eg. possibly, potentially,maybe. On known form i.e proven form,this is not true. Even the very best stables can get it wrong on homework. That said, it would not be a surprise if it were true. However, at the current odds, for both Gns & Derby, there is no value to be had imo.

Ped, yes the price will be a reflection of stable confidence, but that's generally the case with O'Brien's classic runners. For me, on form Camelot was no 15/8 shot on the day, however, although I couldn't back him I didn't see him as a lay either as he was too much of an unknown quantity for me to oppose the confidence. Of course there are plenty of occasions when their confidence is misplaced, Declaration of War being backed as a world beater before the Lockinge, for instance. For my part, I would never back a horse based only on stable confidence.

As for what Australia has done on the track, it's a matter of interpretation. I'd say his latest win could easily be interpreted as top class, just as much as it could be viewed with scepticism. Let's face it, when we're rating a horse based on only one run a lot of the time it comes down to the skill/experience of the person doing the analysis. Sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong. Australia's latest win isn't the easiest race to rate. Initially I rated it pretty highly and then I took the view that I'd perhaps overrated some other races, therefore having a knock on effect for that race. After much deliberation involving all the little nuances I've picked up over my years of time analysis I'm reverting to my original view about the race.

Of course I could be wrong but the big difference between him and War Command for me is that WC's races aren't open to interpretation, there is no possible way I can rate WC any higher than I have. If I attempt to it just becomes immediately apparent that other races run on the same card are rated unfeasibly high. If he were to go off at 3/1 or thereabouts he'd be a definite lay.

If I hadn't previously had a bet in the race I wouldn't be interested in backing Australia at your estimated price of 3/1. He doesn't have the form of, say, Dawn Approach. At the moment I have bets on Be Ready and Toormore. The bigger stake is on Toormore but I stand to win a similar amount if either win. At this stage I see it as a 3 horse race between Be Ready, Toormore and Australia, although there has to be a big chance at least one of them won't make the race. Unless the trials change my view, if Australia lines up I will be backing him to cover my stakes on the other two.

I've been having a few thoughts about the Guineas in recent days, looking at the top 4 in the market.

Australia has to be opposed. To me, he's the quintessential Derby horse, with a staying pedigree and a highly promising 2yo career almost entirely devoid of Guineas speed (7f maiden win was v workmanlike). There are several reasons why he tops the market. Firstly, O'Brien's hype, which I admit is strikingly effusive and actually not representative of what he says about his largely unproven types. Secondly, that in winning in a visually impressive way at Leopardstown, posting an encouraging but in no way exceptional speed figure for a horse on his third start, he thrashed a long odds on favourite deemed to be a top class colt in the making. There is no evidence that Free Eagle is anything special, and even if he is, he might have underperformed on that day. Thirdly, he's out of Ouija Board. That sounds sexy, but nothing she's produced has been better than a handicapper. Finally, he's unexposed. Could be anything. Fair enough, he could be a worldbeater. But he's priced up far too short for what he's achieved.

There's absolutely no reason to believe he will have the speed for the Guineas on normal Guineas ground. Why was he sent up to 8f when plenty of 7f races were available in the Autumn? Why should a Galileo / Ouija Board colt be expected to be a Guineas horse anyway, even if top class?

I have liked Kingman since debut. Fast time on debut. He's also unexposed and potentially sexy but I have some reservations. Firstly, there's Gosden's lack of Guineas success. I'm not sure he rates the race as highly as some. Long season etc. Maybe revving a horse up in March / April just isn't his style. Secondly, the horse has had a setback and may not be the most robust. Thirdly, I just can't envisage Invincible Spirit siring a Guineas winner. When was the last sprinter-sired winner? And Invincible Spirit was hardly a top notcher. Finally, I just can't see the colt staying the Guineas mile. His damside hardly overcompensates for Invincible Spirit's potential stamina weakness.

I like Toormore too, and again I make him quick enough to win the Guineas in theory. However, I am struggling to see Arakan siring a Guineas winner. A closer look at his pedigree counsels caution about his stamina. The damside looks all speed to me. Despite winning twice in good races over 7f, I don't think he's proved stamina to be his strength. At the Curragh, he showed tactical speed but made all, presumably setting optimal fractions. If he's a true miler, I think he'll win the Guineas, but I can see him running a similar race to Delegator, traveling sweetly and just being outgunned in the final 100 yards.

War Command seemed to lose credibility with every post Coventry run last year, and on Dewhurst day I was as underwhelmed as anyone. Having crabbed a couple of sires, I have to say that War Front is hardly the typical Guineas sire either, but War Command has done plenty on the track to offset those fears. For me, the Coventry is the best piece of form on offer, not because he beat great horses in a stellar renewal, but because he proved he could thrive in a straight track, fast run race, clocking a speed figure which, for a colt on his second start, was decent. The Phoenix proved him no worldbeater, but he ran ok against a couple of quick horses in speed favouring circumstances. His last two runs proved him tactically versatile and a winner of races. He's not sexy but he has gone out there and done it several times, once at Newmarket, and despite losing in the Phoenix, he has shown much more 'speed' than the others. He's the Coventry and Dewhurst winner, and if he has made normal improvement over the winter, I can see him battling on up the hill and winning the Guineas in workmanlike style.

He would be my pick from the first four at present.

Mill Reef and Dawn Approach I believe. One lost despite a top class performance at HQ, the other won a weak renewal.

I've noticed down the years Invincible Spirits seem to get quite a few stayers as well as sprinters, the stamina does seem to come from the dam's side with most of them although Invincible Spirit himself did have a fair bit of stamina in his breeding on the dam's side but took after Green Desert. Kingman's dam Zenda as pedro has stated has already produced Remote, she herself was related to another sprinter In Oasis Dream who was also by Green Desert. Zelda's dam Hope was a half sister to Irish Oaks winner Wemyss Bight who produced Beat Hollow.
So a mixture of speed and stamina in Kingman's breeding.
I can't see a mile being a problem myself given how he won first time up over 7f.

Toormore is by Arakan whose best 2 before Toormore were Hannon's pair Dick Turpin and Trumpet Major and I think similar to those 2
a mile is going to be tops.

I think with Kingman, Toormore and War Command you have 3 horses who will be at their best over 1 mile so for me I'd be surprised if Australia
were to have the speed to beat all 3.

figgis, hope you wintered well

Typical improvement from 2yo form to the Guineas I have at only around 3 to 4lbs

Think we may have had this conversation before.
On the offical WFA scale, allowances for 2yo from older horses at 1m end of Oct is 24lbs.
In early May, 3yo from older horses over 1m is 13lbs
ie the official scale suggests 3yos have improved 11lbs in that period. That's quite a bit different from your estimate?

Ped, I would rate a good Guineas winner around 60, whereas a similarly good speed figure for an older horse at a mile would be around 67, in my view the official scale very much favours the better 3yos at that time of year. This is in keeping with my view that a typical Guineas winner does not improve by as much as the 10lbs the official scale tells us it should, definitely not on the clock it doesn't.

Ped, I'm not here to argue against your own methods, if using speed figures in the official scale works for you and you're happy with it then that's good enough. What works for one doesn't always work for another. I just think that any figures compiler who has a go at compiling them without shoehorning them into the wfa scale will be surprised at the differences.

Although obviously I'd have an average all aged G1 winner ahead of a 2yo G1 winner
but you know what I mean.

Would agree that I didn't tend to believe a horse required anything like a 10 pound improvement to win the Guineas often a horse already has the credentials in place to win.

It might be that the Craven produces a really polished performance from something completely under the radar but would be tending to side with something that has the speed credentials already in place. For me that's Toormore at the moment based on his Curragh run. The performance of Giovianni Baldini although on a different track and conditions has to be a positive as is the line of form through Outstrip (although obviously all centered around the same three horses). Feel the way he ran and finished at Goodwood suggests he would be fine from a staying point of view.

My own findings are that in terms of pure speed average improvement from a top class 2yo to a top class 3yo is greatly exaggerated and I think some of that comes down to gains in stamina with age. A 2yo may be able to run a very fast time over 6 or 7f that it wouldn't necessarily be able to replicate over 1m at that stage of its development. The wfa scale factors the stamina gains as improvement.

Knowing O'Brien's previous record for comments it would be a shock if he had said anything to the contrary. If his comments are going to be put forward as significant then surely Australia is his number 1?

"He was in superb form when I last saw him two weeks ago and looked magnificent," said Tim Palin, racing manager of Toormore's owners, Middleham Park Racing. "He has done exceptionally well over the winter. Richard Hughes always said that he was not your archetypal Richard Hannon-trained two-year-old but was more of a late maturing type and he has definitely filled out and strengthened." Palin added, "The 2,000 Guineas is firmly our number one target with him for the start of the season".

Varian had been mulling over whether to run the son of Mastercraftsman in the Guineas or a Derby trial, but has seemingly made his mind up.

"I'm really pleased with him," the Newmarket trainer said on Monday.  "He's wintered well and looks terrific. We're certainly training him with the Guineas in mind. He's got a way to go before then, but he's bang on course. At this stage I couldn't be happier."

Seems like there are a few connections giving off good vibes about their hopes. No doubt any bad vibes will filter through the betting markets before any comments from connections.

Stevie, I'm just waiting for the injury on the gallops one from Godolphin

I'm a big fan of Toormore but I was put off but connections comments last autumn about them hoping he would end up top european 2yo, and they decided not to run in a race, The Dewhurst I think, just so they could be sure of keeping his unbeaten record. I got the impression they wanted to sell him to the highest bidder, kind of thing.

I don't see much wrong with War Command. Many Coventry Stakes winners fail to look as impressive on the next couple of starts (Can Cliffords, Art Connoiseur for example) but come roaring back as 3yo's. As it is really early in the season for 2yo I reckon it must take something out of them. I also like the fact AOB has described War Command as a big powerful framed horse who would thrive on fast ground. This is exactly what he said about Declaration Of War who was immense last season.