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2000 GUINEAS (2014)
2000 GUINEAS (2014)
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*Canford Cliffs not Can Cliffords
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With regard to the possible Hannon runners here is what the Guardian reported Richard Junior said around Christmas time:
Toormore The champion two-year-old. He gets no penalty for the Greenham [a 2,000 Guineas trial at Newbury in April]. And he won his maiden on soft ground, so if it turned up soft there, it wouldn't do him any harm. Night Of Thunder A really nice horse. He's done very well. For some reason, Hughesie [Richard, stable jockey and the trainer's brother-in-law] always bangs on about him. Hughesie loves him, he obviously gave him a great feel at Doncaster. The owner had the third in the 2,000 Guineas last year, so hopefully this horse can go a couple of places closer, you never know. He's got loads of speed. Up to now, he's done extremely well. He's filled out. He wasn't the biggest of horses last year but he's plenty of size now. It's not exactly a ringing endorsement for Toormore when compared to Night Of Thunder. Although NoT has been weak on here so hard to know what to make of it. http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/jan/04/richard-hannon-jr-new-flat-trainer |
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Wasn't sure it was just to keep his unbeaten record as much as they really didn't want to run him on soft ground for which they believed he was unsuited. Although I remember that they were keen to end up top rated 2 year old. There were some favourable comparisons with Toronado from Hughes.
The problem with AOB is because of the potential stud value they are all world beaters until they turn out to be nothing in particular. Think there are other stables which tend to only shout when they have a really special one. |
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Hannon, who revealed that Wentworth will not be taking up his entry in the Lincoln at Doncaster on World Cup night, reports the team as not having been held up by Britain's wettest winter in history - "we are lucky in that we are quite high up here" - and he stressed that he could not be happier with the squad.
He added: "The two-year-olds have been going through the stalls all in winter and have been coming up in bunches as part of their education, but we were able to work on the grass for the first time yesterday, and all the possible Guineas horses, like Toormore, Shifting Power, Barley Mow, Anjaal etc, have been going well, so we have plenty to look forward to." Mentioned everything bar Night of Thunder in that comment. I think most of them talk their whole yard up at this stage, weight of money speaks much louder than trainer's comments in this game, although to be fair I find Richard Hannon Jr worth listening to more than most. Barring accidents I can't see Hughes riding anything but Toormore. |
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I agree Figgis. Very hard to judge.
I'm on a couple antepost but as I said earlier I was really impressed with Night Of Thunder and he's my biggest winner at this stage. I think Hughes would be mad to get off the champion 2yo personally and can't see it happening if Toormore turns up. You'd think at least one of them will be off to Longchamp too. |
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Yes, possibly whichever one is aimed at the Greenham if they follow last year's pattern.
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idle speculation but does anybody know anything about Age of Innocence?
I remember Richard Hughes eulogizing about his appearance in his RP column after seeing him when riding at Maisons-Laffitte last summer. I note he's the only entry for Andre Fabre, he's another sired by Invincible Spirit. |
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O'Brien has high hopes for his three-year-olds and reports Classic contenders Australia and War Command to be in good shape.
"War Command is a big horse and a powerful horse. I think he's carrying loads of weight and is cantering away. He's done well and we're happy with him. He could be exciting," he said. "Everything's good so far with Australia. I couldn't be happier really." Both are near the head of Sky Bet's antepost betting at 7/1 for the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket while Australia is the 4/1 favourite for the Investec Derby. I put up the AOB quote re WC & Australia really as a counter-weight to the pro-Australia argument that the latter is a more likely winner of the 2000 Gns than the former and that WC could be rated someway below others, a proposition with which I cannot possibly concur, as indeed would be the case with the majority if not all other handicappers and ratings services. AOB's comments (albeit early February) could to my mind at least, be interpreted that WC is at least regarded very favourably by AOB and given that the horse's best chances look to be at 8f/10f, we can at least expect the horse to be aimed at Newmarket, whereas Australia has excellent prospects of staying 12f and might therefore be given a middle distance preparation, which may or may not involve a run at Newmarket. Perhaps the negative re WC is that he is described as "big,powerful,..;carrying loads of weight" suggesting that he might need a prep run before the Gns. The race is only about 7 weeks away from now so one might hope to see him out early. I have nailed my colours to the WC mast, and have therefore a vested interest, but at this stage I can't see why the market has got anything out of order at least as far as the rank order of prospects is concerned,(with the exception of Australia) although I do have a different view of the degree of difference between horses. |
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If I was trying to rate the contenders purely on a reading of the form and completely ignoring my time analysis (which would lead to overall losses in my case) then I would probably rate War Command and Toormore the most likely winners. I think most people using a strict interpretation of the formbook and ratings services would conclude that War Command has the more solid looking form compared to Australia and has been trained more like a Guineas prospect. Despite that Australia is currently less than half the price of War Command. Maybe last season Australia's short price could be dismissed as hype by some people but the fact that he's shortened further has to be taken into consideration. I wouldn't compare it to the Hawk Wing/Rock of Gibraltar price difference where HW was always considered their number 1 Guineas horse.
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How significant are the A/P price movements, I wonder? Not very imo. The big backers would back in £000's when credit was available but that is no longer the case. They will step in nearer the time. The BF A/p market means nothing. There is £40 waiting to back Australia at present. Just £13000 plus in totaltraded which for BF means £6500 has been risked so far. £18,000 has been traded on WC i.e just £9000 so far. The BM's prices have shortened its true on Australia but I am sceptical. It can just as easily be window dressing on their part to encourage punters to play. In short, we don't know much more. I couldn't read too much into the market at the moment.
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I agree the ante post books on here generally are a waste of time, apart from when you see somebody going out on a limb with a price, Magician's price after the Derby trials, for example, nobody will convince me that wasn't due to some insider info. Regarding the big backers connected with the yard, I also agree that it's doubtful they've played to any significant amounts yet. As for the bookmakers creating false favourites, in my view that rarely happens these days compared to years gone by before the exchanges got a grip. The price will have been influenced by small players connected to the yard, word of mouth, etc, which while I would never place my own bets on those things, I acknowledge that they have significance.
Obviously yards don't always get it right when they have more than one entered. As previously stated with Hawk Wing and Rock of Gibraltar, Harbinger and Workforce and loads of other examples that could be given. However, generally the favoured horse doesn't come as a surprise, whereas I would argue in this instance it does. I've rated Australia higher than WC. It's not a rating I would be 100% about but it's the view I've taken at this stage. While I will gladly bet against a stable's opinion when I don't agree with it I have to accept that on most occasions we are going to be in sync so I see the market move as a bit of added confidence to my rating. Of course I could be wrong and there is plenty of time for War Command's price to contract into favouritism. If he does and the race continues to look up to standard I will still be happily opposing him as I have plenty of confidence in my rating of him. Whether War Command ends up shorter than Australia or not, what I would take from the market at this stage is that Australia at least appears to be a likely runner. |
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Many years ago I was given a Michael Stoute filly for the Oaks, Unite. She didn`t run as a two year old and then won at Ascot in a first ever race as a three year old. She was freely available at 33/1 for the Oaks but Stoute also had a filly called Milligram which was placed in the 1000 Guineas and was a 4/1 for the Oaks with Walter Swinburn to ride. I was unwilling to back Unite given the stable plans but a couple of days before the Oaks it was announced that Milligram would not run and Walter Swinburn would switch to Unite.I managed to get on at 14/1 and win a few quid and followed up in the Irish Oaks.
Overall it is always a bit of a head scratcher when a yard has multiple entries. Happily the answers reside on the track on the day and not on markets or trainers comments. The fascination is using one`s judgement to make your pick and being proved right from time to time. |
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Unite did run as a 2yo.
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Sorry, senior moment.
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Whether the BF/exchange market follows the BM's fixed odds market depends on the circumstances. On most occasions now, day of race markets are determined by BF pricing & movements, but the A/P market on BF is feeble and imo it follows BM's prices. If BM's are going to get a horse, it will invariably be a favourite. Their favoured strategy is to shorten one up, not lengthen it. That sucks in plenty of people who like to follow the market, and who draw conclusions as to home work/trainers intentions from market movements. The more its cut, the more its backed. BM's nearly always like to get the favs in their books first. The one's they pick for this strategem are invariably ones who are hyped and who may have some doubtful element about them. Australia fits the mould perfectly imo.
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That could well be the case here and I know I'm going to take a favourable view of the market move as it fits my opinion. Nevertheless, I'm still taking the view that Australia is probably showing more than War Command at the moment and looking like their first choice. If I'm wrong I will say so. While it's taken me a while to come to a firm(ish) opinion about Australia's level, in my defence I can say that I always did say that I thought Brigust's argument was perfectly reasonable (for a change
 ) when he said Australia could be their Guineas number 1 and I always thought it would depend on which one looked the part in the spring. |
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Feltfair
You may remember last years Oaks.Ralph Beckett had 2 entries for the race, Secret Gesture (3/1 fav) and Talent (20/1 with BM's 26.0 on BF). The trainer/jockey really thought that SG was the much better horse both on form and homework. No-one was more surprised than them when Talent went by SG and won. The following day, Battle of Marengo went off 6.5, ROTW went off 8.0. AOB lads/lassies didn't know who was better. The Hawk Wing 6/4 Fav/Rock of Gibralter 9/1 and HW 9/4/High Chaperral 7/2 proved again that even "the lads" at Coolmore get it wrong. It happens all the time. |
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The big difference in all those examples, as I said previously, is that the yard's first choice was also the expected choice and the form choice of the majority. In Australia's case it isn't, as was demonstrated by the arguments against Brigust last year.
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If and when we see a sustained gamble, like the one we saw with Nashwan prior to the Gns, then I'll believe. Up to then, I'd prefer to go with the form book, the breeding and what I saw with my own eyes at Ascot.
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I'm not trying to convince anybody Australia is the next Nashwan, just that Brigust's argument isn't as ridiculous as it was made out to be.
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We will see.
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Just to clarify, I don't think he ever agreed with O'Brien's hyperbole, his argument was that Coolmore might actually believe in the horse and see him as their best Guineas chance, a better Guineas prospect than War Command. While the jury is still out, I can't believe anybody who is being honest with themselves at this moment isn't entertaining the idea that he could be right, and, at the very least, admitting that it was a reasonable conclusion after all.
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I've never argued against the possibility that Australia might be a better horse than WC. What I have argued is that Australia is a middle distance bred horse par excellence and that with an excellent alternative in WC for the Gns its more likely than not that AOB will take his preferred route to the Derby with Australia and will by-pass the Gns. The current betting moves, if sustained, might possibly suggest otherwise. Even if Australia runs, I still expect WC to run and at the prevailing prices I still rate him a better bet for the race.
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Yes, that's fair enough, I know you've always said that Australia was a fine middle distance prospect. Since his Leopardstown win I have wavered about him, initially rating him quite highly then dropping him down to where I have War Command, it was only after putting some more work in last month that I have him higher again. I had a few distractions last year but have finally got back on top of everything (I hope!) As the season unfolds I may have to revert to his lower mark again. I rate WC much lower than you but I respect any punter who holds their view against the market so I wouldn't expect you to be swayed by the market, just as my view is a strong one so I won't flinch if there turns out to be a gamble on him.
Late last year I also held the view that they were more likely to give Australia a Derby trial route but I did state that more than anything it would depend on how they shaped in the run up to the Guineas. From memory, Brigust's argument was always that Australia may become their Guineas number 1, even if War Command also turned up, that still remains to be seen but at the moment it's looking very plausible. |
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I often wonder about what it is that horses "show at home," and whether that can ever be truly reflective of what happens in a horse race. Take the Guineas - basically a sustained semi-sprint where the winner decelerates less markedly in the final furlong. How is the ability to 'decelerate less rapidly' shown on the gallops? The ability to grittily withstand fast fractions and keep going? I can see how a "turn of foot" can be shown in a furlong or two of proper speed work, but how can trainers correlate that to what will happen after they've already run 6 furlongs at a strong pace?
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Howellsy, I'd say they can't always know for sure until they do it on the track. If O'Brien's comments are to be believed it seems that Australia was probably doing it on the gallops but after his first 2 runs maybe they were beginning to wonder if that would ever be transferred to the track, hence him being easy in the market. Like most things it probably boils down to the experience and expertise of those involved and even though they can't always be right some yards seem to have a pretty good handle on exactly what they've got. We don't know for sure that Australia has been showing more talent than WC, and even if it is true there's always the possibility it's misleading, but as you've pointed out gallops work is more about speed, so if I was a backer of WC I would find it a bit of a concern that the more stoutly bred animal who was seemingly being trained more as a middle distance prospect is showing more pace.
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It is a good point to remind ourselves that AOB has used the Guineas as prep race for many horses in the past. His comments about WC carrying plenty of condition do have me wondering if he's setting things up for the next media gathering where he'll divulge the horse is coming along nicely but still carrying weight, basically meaning he's not being trained for the Newmarket Guineas like so many others of his. Mastercrafstman, Roderic Oconor, Misty for Me etc. We'll see what he says in his next bulletin!!
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Yes, good point. Can anyone recall him using a prep for a strongly fancied runner in recent years? Not necessarily the winners but ones that were expected to run well. I might've forgotten a few but the last one I can remember was Giants Causeway.
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Mastercraftman went into the winner as top european 2yo I believe? And was ante-post fac with some firms. He was sent off 7/1 but the vibes were poor and he was rejected by Johnny Murtagh for Rip Van Winkel.
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*into the winter
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AOB regularly runs his best middle-distance horses in the Newmarket Guineas. SNA, RVWinkel, Horatio Nelson, Camelot. Highly likely it will be the same with Australia. A cracking lay bet imo.
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We don't know for sure that Australia has been showing more talent than WC, and even if it is true there's always the possibility it's misleading, but as you've pointed out gallops work is more about speed, so if I was a backer of WC I would find it a bit of a concern that the more stoutly bred animal who was seemingly being trained more as a middle distance prospect is showing more pace
if i remember, a few people suggested War Command (Heffernan) must have been showing the Coolmore mafia very little at home to go off 20/1 in the Coventry Stakes, third stable choice behind Stubbs (O'Brien) 5/2 Fav and Sir John Hawkins (Moore) 6/1 3rd Fav O'Brien has obviously found War Command impossible to read. He admitted he left him (unknowingly) undercooked for his only defeat in the Phoenix Stakes. Plenty want to crab War Command because he has merely ground out "hard fought" victories the last twice. To my eye, he was never going to get beat in either contest, was vastly superior to the opposition and only ever doing enough. He's quite clearly a big, lazy beast both at home and on the racecourse .... who just keeps on winning. |
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Yes, it's a fair point that War Command might be one of those that doesn't show much at home, whether that's because he's not especially fast and has won some weak renewals of 2yo events, or is a very good horse who just does enough is open to speculation. If it's just a case of him not showing much at home it didn't stop him getting sent off at odds of 2/5, 8/11 and 10/11 in his next 3 starts and if there's any confidence behind him I'd expect the money to come sooner or later.
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You think it was his homework that saw him sent off at 2/5 Figgis, rather than, I dunno, his demolition job in the Coventry on his previous run?
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Gerard, no, I said if he is lacklustre in his homework it didn't stop him being sent off at those odds and if there's any stable confidence behind him as a top notcher then I would expect him being backed again.
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A couple of posts from the (very) long thread on War Command that bear repeating re. AOB's MO
First from Pedrobob. Joined: 27 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 5,839 | Blogger: pedrobob's blog Figgis it clearly isn't impossible that AOB has a better one at home is it? It's not really a matter of O'Brien have a better one at this stage when looking for his Guineas winner. Most of his winners have been well exposed by the end of their 2yo careers, a high win ratio and proven in Grp 1 company. 1998 - King Of Kings, form figures 11211- , (best win Grp 1 National Stks) 2002 - Rock Of Gibraltar, 1611111- (Grp 1 Grand Criterium and Dewhurst) 2005 - Footstepsinthesand, 11- (Grp 3, Kilavullan Stks) 2006 - George Washington, 31111- , (Grp 1 Phoenix and National Stks) 2008 - Henrythenavigator, 1123- (Group 2 Coventry) 2012 - Camelot, 11- (Grp 1 Racing Post Trophy) Apart from late starting Footstepsinthesand, all were given plenty of experience as a 2yo and unbeaten in six collective Group 1 starts. Henry retired early after 3rd in Grp 2 Futurity end August behind New Approach on unsuitable soft ground and missed the autumn Group 1's. If O'Brien follows his normal pattern, he won't be giving his potential winner a race between now and May. Geoffrey Chaucer is unbeaten in 2 starts inc Grp 2 Beresford, but both over a mile compared to 6/7f wins of Footstepsinthesand and presumably a Derby type being by Montjeu. Australia been argued to death already..... Despite achieving fair form at 2, none of the following fit the profile of O'Brien's past winners: Stubbs, Mekong River, Wilshire Boulevard, Great White Eagle, Craftsman, Coach House, Giovanni Baldini, unbeaten Indian Maharaja, Friendship, Guerre, Sir John Hawkins, Oklahoma City, Johann Strauss, Kingfisher, Michaelmas.... The only 2yo at Ballydoyle that has the same profile, namely plenty of experience and a Grp 1 victory, as his previous Guineas winners is War Command. . |
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From Pedrobob again on the War Command thread:
Joined: 27 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 5,839 | Blogger: pedrobob's blog Sixteen O'Brien 2000 Guineas runners who finished in the first 6 at Newmarket listed below The only ones not to run in a Group 1 as a 2yo were the lightly raced and unbeaten Footstepsinthesand (unraced until Oct) and Mars (unraced after debut win July), and Duke Of Marmalade (unraced after Aug) The only ones who ran in, but failed to win a Group 1 as a 2yo were Rip Van Winkle (Grp 3 winner), Eagle Mountain (Grp 2 winner) and Cristoforo Colombo Of the five who ultimately won at Newmarket or pair that finished second there, only unbeaten and late-starting Footstepsinthesand and Henrythenavigator (missed all the autumn 2yo Group 1's having finished in Aug) failed to win a Group 1 as a 2yo...... and none of the seven were asked to run over a mile as a 2yo except Camelot Unless Australia had a setback after winning a 1m Group 3 contest at beginning of Sept, then this will rank one of the most unusual 2yo careers that O'Brien has mapped out for a Newmarket Guineas "contender" in his time at Ballydoyle. Which begs the question, is he even headed there at all? Suspect we will never see him run over anything less than 10f. year pos horse name 2002 1 Rock Of Gibraltar 2005 1 Footstepsinthesand 2006 1 George Washington 2008 1 Henrythenavigator 2012 1 Camelot 2000 2 Giant's Causeway 2002 2 Hawk Wing 2005 4 Oratorio 2001 4 Minardi 2007 4 Duke Of Marmalade 2009 4 Rip Van Winkle 2007 5 Eagle Mountain 2009 5 Mastercraftsman 2013 5 Cristoforo Colombo 2010 6 St Nicholas Abbey 2013 6 Mars |
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And finally, one from me.
Therefore if Australia is better than WC he must run him in the 2000 Gns. Eh, no he doesn't? Didn't run Galileo in the 2000 did he? Didn't run High Chaperral either. Didn't run Ruler of the World either. Nor Dylan Thomas. Apart from Camelot, his 2000 Gns haveall been bred for a MILE. On the other hand the other top class middle distance horses that he has run in the 2000 such as St Nicholas Abbey, Hawk Wing were beaten. On the other hand, the top class middle distance horses that were started over 10f have a tremendous record later in the year. This is the crucial detail missing from your interpretation brigust1. In summary, AOB's MO has been to run miler-breds at Newmarket and 12f breds at Leopardstown/10f. This has been far more successful than running 12f breds at Newmarket, bar the exception of Camelot. All of which suggests the odds are against Australia going to Newmarket. The current betting patterns are flimsy evidence compared to the evidence over years. However, this is all speculation, of course. |
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All that provides further substance to the argument that it goes firmly against the grain for Australia to be stronger in the market than his more obvious potential Guineas rival. Significant early betting market moves or a meaninglessly weak market fuelled by hype and bookmaker manipulation? You decide
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[i]Significant?? early betting market moves or a meaninglessly weak market fuelled by hype and bookmaker manipulation? You decide Devil[/i]
Very little money involved seemingly so would hesitate to call it significant. |