Frankel!

only just caught up with ATR showing this gallop and Aidan's comments.
Going on what he said, Australia ought to be Evens fav for the Guineas and 1/2 for Derby.
Going on what I saw with my eyes, should be 25/1 for the Guineas

Presumably none of O'Brien's horses have been asked to do any fast work this season?

With his racecourse form still below Group 1 level, presumably this week's gamble on Australia is based entirely on Aidan's view of the horse's promise and homework as a 2yo as it can't be anything he has seen at 3?

Absolutely amazed that Aidan has put himself in this position (again) of proclaiming yet another "best ever" great champion before he has proven it on the racecourse, especially when he's also saying the horse can't handle soft ground.

Always love to see a great racehorse and best of luck to Australia, but until he proves himself on the track, Aidan's words are just more spin to add to Sandown's (?) long list of previous Coolmore marketing spiel

If this episode tells me anything, it is that analysing the form of a horse  and predicting its chance is more reliable than that of predicting a trainers intentions - at least with this particular trainer/connections. Perhaps the prospect of winning the Triple Crown has become a desirable goal after the near-miss with Camelot.

now into a best available 9/4 on here although was a nice 5/2 available with the sportsbook for a bit this morning. Looks like War Command is headed for an alternative arrangement according to the money available today although could just be speculative trading.

Is Australia the ultimate talking horse? He is now just over 2/1 for both the 2000 Gns and the Derby all really on the back of the trainer's comments. He has won a G3 race, on his third outing. He is yet to race as a 3 yr old. The ratings certainly don't justify this position so everything is based on his potential. He will imo improve for a step up in trip and his action doesn't suggest that he needs soft ground, perhaps the opposite. This is an insiders horse par excellance. The trainer doesn't seem to be able to stop himself from using ever increasing hyperbole. Let's face it, they should give Australia the prize now. There is no point in running the races, its so one-sided.

Well he is doing a pretty good job of reducing the opposition on his own.

What a mug he would look if War Command turned up and trounced his superstar. Trainer has talked himself into a corner to the detriment of competition.

Anyway, i've layed him at 3.25. Ridiculous price.

just layed some more at 3.15. Nonsense of a price.

He is very short and it's not a price that would interest me ante post but I wouldn't want to lay it. Much has been made of his first two runs not being impressive, and I agree, but George Washington wasn't impressive until his fourth start as a 2yo, so I wouldn't hold that against him. Camelot went off a short priced 15/8 on the day, is Australia's form much worse than Camelot's going into the race? Ok Camelot had a Gp1 win to his credit but beating Zip Top and Fencing, albeit impressively, was hardly great form. If the other 2 horses I rate highly, Be Ready and Toormore, get to the race in form I think Australia is going to have to do a bit more than Camelot had to in order to win. The danger is that those two horses aren't guaranteed yet and if they were to miss the race I don't think it would take a great deal of winning, unless something else makes big improvement.

3.10 now ...

He is very short and it's not a price that would interest me ante post but I wouldn't want to lay it

what's the lowest price you would back Australia antepost, Figgis?

Yep, I see it as a slight negative too, though I am lukewarm on his chances anyway. Prefer others ahead of him.

Hannon does like his Guineas horses to have a prep. I think he has had several make the fram after preps, Canford, Dick Turpin, Van Der neer, Trumpet Major was 4th, plus some others in the 90's before my betting days!

Figgis, if you wouldn't have backed Australia at 6/1 three months ago, surely with nothing having changed as far as the principals concerned bar Kingman apparently having overcome his chip and War Command (who you don't rate) being left at home, would you not have to be a layer at 2/1 now - if laying is your sort of thing (which I presume it is it not)

So you wouldn't lay Australia at Evens which it might be this week at the current rate on the graph... ?

I should add, if he does go as low as evens then I certainly won't be having any cover on him, however, I still won't be laying him. If anything around 2/1 is available nearer the time I will probably have some cover.

Australia backer will be hoping for no "April showers" then
Silly ante-p price now

I think we've been lucky to have some good winning Guineas performances in recent years which leads to the expectation of another, but we could end up with a Haafhd, Refuse to Bend, Island Sands, or, dare I say it, Camelot type running, it's not always apparent at this stage.

I must admit to being completely wrong-footed over the "WC to France" move, and no doubt it was that knowledge which insiders used to back Australia in over the past few weeks, that plus the AOB view of " 2nd best horse ever - and that before its even won a single G1!

I had thought that Ballydoyle might run both at Newmarket just as they did with Hawk Wing & Rock of Gibralter.

I also counted on them going the traditional route for Derby preps i.e Leopardstown & 10f, for Australia.

In other words, WC was a cert for Newmarket.

So, why the change in thinking? The lure of the Triple Crown? Something new rather than a repeat, perhaps.A greater challenge.

Whatever, the A/P prices are unrealistic to say the least, not just the Gns but for the Derby as well.I will always price up the whole field for major races and over the years I reckon I have become pretty good at it. To accept the current prices, you first have to have Australia as the most likely winner, the favourite. Even that is debateable. Then you have to have the other contenders having no more than half the chance of Australia at best. How can that right? The market is built around trainers comments which is not a reliable basis. But one comment should be a red flaf for Australia fans. The horse will not be at its best on soft ground. We have just experienced the wettest winter in decades. Any more rain would be a concern. However, the word "firm" has appeared in the going description for Nmkt in early May, many times before.

As a betting race, the opportunities lie with others now with Australia perhaps being a "saver" on the day.

War Command two best runs have come on straight tracks (Coventry and Dewhurst). I think taking him to France (if they do!!) would be asking for trouble imo.

The way I see it is that as War Command was a top 2 year old (should have been top rated imo) who has won the Dewhurst (which is traditionally the best Guineas trial) by then routing him to France it's just a backhanded way of increasing the hype on Australia.

i.e you can see the headlines in the breeding catalogue if Australia manages to win.
eg. 'Coolmore were so confident in Australias brilliance that they switched the previous seasons Dewhurst winner, who would normally line up as one of the favourites at Newmarket, to the French guineas at Longchamp'.

And btw, it's only AOB's word re the ground, too, not just on his ability. Lots of Galileo's handle cut in the ground, some even excel on soft ground. But I can understand them being protective of the horse about the issue of ground given they feel the Irish Derby bottomed Camelot.