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Hi Sin. I think WC was fit all right I just think he may have benefited from a prep race against mainly race fit horses. The ante-post market you refer to was only based upon whether he would or not run. Had I been home and known he would be 7s to win and whatever he was for a place on the day I would have made hay. He may well be major player in the remaining 1m Gr1's this year but unless they collapse he won't win any.
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Glad to have you back brigust,hope you had a great vacation,for what it's worth,I feel the standside were at a slight disadvantage,based on the way Noozah set the pace(far side) early and did not fade away,they all raced pretty close to the rail on the far side,Austrailia slow coming across had no cover.
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Hi MJ, I'm glad to be back. This is a great time of year to be racing. It wasn't a holiday just a project I have been working on over the winter that took longer than expected. Da mn.
Obviously I don't know of any disadvantage but JOB looked pretty clueless about where to go for a few seconds. All I can assume is that he saw Toormore heading down the stands side rail and went that way. I would have thought staying where the known pace was on the far side would have been better. We will never know for sure. One thing for sure I will not be the only one surprised about War Commands price. |
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yes suspect the plan was to follow Toormore,some sympathy with that view mind,the ground was good and noozah being spanish maybe expected to blow out earlier than most?
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Far side - Noozah,25.52 first 2f, 36.95 3f
Stands side - Toormore,25.62 2f, 37.17 3f Toormore very disappointing from that point onwards.Noozah given a little breather perhaps? but ran a cracker,too good for my money. |
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It was an odd sort of result I must admit. AOB is getting a bit of a history of not getting his horses fit for the day I'm staggered Coolmore seem to go along with the set up. I know the Hannon's were not happy with Toormore's run but whether it was because Hughsie used him too much on slower ground I have no idea. As I said too many questions for my liking. Did the CoC give any going stick readings before racing for across the course?
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Someone posted going stick earlier?,Two races going on brigust,watering never that even!
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TF rate the winner 126,hard to get enthusiastic for the figures for the race ,most finishing within close proximity.
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Australia went quicker to the 4f marker than the two rivals that beat him!
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oh! and young joseph got a whip ban.
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No surprise about Joseph. He is too big to be a flat jockey and relies far too much on his whip. Where Kieren and Ryan wind their horses up from some way out he goes from sitting to hitting far too quickly. But you know that when you have a bet. Obviously he is the one to take out of it with any certainty. The winner may go for the Derby but I can't see him beating Australia. The 2nd may go for the St James Palace but I am still far from convinced he stays a mile and apparently the 4th is going to France. Kingston Hill still has questions to answer as does Toormore and War Command.
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Having just watched the Chester Cup, brig, there are worse jockey options
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Hi Figgis. Got it right about War Command then.
When you consider JOB's record of wins for Dad then wins for outside trainers is 270-7-7-6 and you compare that with Jamie Spencer of 56-43-37-27 and Ryan Moore of 159-77-49-38 shows outside trainers are obviously happy to put them up on fancied horses than the Irish trainers are to put up JOB. I'm convinced had hi Dad not been a trainer he wouldn't be in the sport let alone a leading jockey. . |
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and quite rightly they sacked him.
Pity he didnt learn from it. |
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Way, way to early to be claiming correctness on War Command. He was beat 5 lengths when having not been trained for the race, and clearly Australia was. The odds were not to do with whether he ran or not. But all to do with how he was being readied at home. There has been a precedent for this, e.g Mastercraftsman and Roderic O'Conor. Massively weak in the winter ante-post markets.
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Talk about hanging on by your finger tips Sin. The betting on the day, AOB's comments on the day and before, The claims he was pee ing over everything in the televised gallop. Ryan Moore rode when he could have possibly ridden the winner all point to the fact that he was fit and ready to run. I don't think AOB is convinced he stays a mile and that puts him right in the mix with a bunch of decent horses. Best of luck with your project but not for me I'm afraid.
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"Too big to be a flat jockey"??
Does that apply to Richard Hughes and one Lester Piggott? Two times champion jockey and smashed Kinanes winner record,ridden winners all over the world and still just a boy. ![]() ![]() |
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brigust1
All you have got right so far is that Australia did indeed run in the 2000 Gns. Everything else is still to be proven i.e just how good is Australia and how good is WC.Incidentally, just to demonstrate how iffy it is to rely on what AOB says, you may remember that he said WC was going to France. Didn't turn out that way. A little early for any smugness I would suggest. |
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Yip. As smug as a chesire cat with a fully belly basking in the sun.
Incidentally, I don't see many of the Aus layers gloating on here, and there were quite a few of us. Those poor souls backing at 9/4 - 4/1 should give the game up. Give it up now! |
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Wash your mouth out Felt. Richard Hughes an Lester Piggott ffs.
Where have I been smug? I backed Australia and lost. I put and ante post bet on for the 2000 Gns, Derby and Arc and lost. All I argued was that the way AOB was talking THIS TIME as opposed to EVERY OTHER TIME was that he HAD TO RUN AUSTRALIA IN THE 2000 GNs. And if he was to be believed THIS TIME then War Command WOULD NOT win the 2000 Gns. That was all I was arguing about. Instead of wrongly accusing me, and others I may add particularly and most vigorously Figgis who though C would not win the 2000 Gns and was arguing exactly the same thing, why don't you just accept that maybe, just maybe, you were wrong about War Command? Now that would be a step forward. |
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*WC
Mick Kinane would ride him to sleep. When he, JOB, starts getting TOP CLASS outside rides he may be starting on the way to being a top jockey. |
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Sint, maybe so at 9/4 but he was only beaten a head by a horse going off at 6/4 and already being talked of as possibly being close to Frankel. It's not a bet I'd have considered value beforehand but those who were on at 4/1 got a good run for their money, looking at the prices and finishing positions I wouldn't say it was a worse bet than Kingman.
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Anybody who thought after the Coventry that WC was a potential G1 horse got that right.
Anybody who thought that WC deserved to run in the 2000 Gns got that right although not without a change of heart by AOB Anybody who thought that WC could win the Gns got that wrong. Anybody who thought that WC is capable of winning at least another G1 and of posting a rating of RPR of mid 120's - not proven yet,jury still out Anybody who thought that Australia would run in the Gns got that right Anybody who thought that based on what AOB said, Australia was a superstar waiting to happen and who could go on to win the Triple Crown, the Arc and the Grand National - got that wrong - it is yet to be proven that he is a G1 winner after 4 runs. WC has got his G1 I hasten to add so bragging rights are with WC at present |
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As for War Command, I certainly wouldn't rule him out winning the Irish 2000 Guineas at this stage, which is sometimes a decent Gp1 but more often than not a substandard one. You only have to look back at recent winners like Power and Roderic O'Connor, decent enough horses but in the Gp1 scheme of things, mediocre. Anything more than that looks most unlikely to me.
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Estimating the chances of a horse/s winning any race is one aspect of the game. Judging whether a horse is value is another eually important if not more important skill. Staking correcttly is also just as important.
Imo, irrespective of the outcome. both Australia and Kingman were at one time or another very poor value indeed. I'm sure that all layers including BM';s were very grateful to AOB's comments and for the over-reaction to Kingmans G3 trial win. I just wish that the value bets (imo) WC and Kingston Hill had won then I could indeed be as smug as brigust1 is, surprising given that as he admits he lost on the race. |
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That is exactly what a forum is about Sandown. As a punter I know all about getting it wrong but you either concentrate on the positive or dwell on the negative.
You think the jury is still out on War Command but not about Australia. I disagree. You only have to read this thread to see how difficult this race was for Australia to win. This was no Camelot Guineas. There were several Group 1 winners in this race and Australia will likely now be aimed at races he would be fully expected to win. All is definitely not lost. |
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is sometimes a decent Gp1 but more often than not a substandard one. You only have to look back at recent winners like Power and Roderic O'Connor, decent enough horses but in the Gp1 scheme of things, mediocre. Anything more than that looks most unlikely to me.
A compliment indeed, albeit a back-handed one |
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You accuse me of being smug again wtf. I got some things right, you concentrate on, and others wrong, you ignore. Loads on here thought Australia was poor value and aimed to lay him, they were right. I never had any intention of backing him but talked myself into it and I was wrong. How the flying f you think that makes me smug means you obviously have a problem yourself. Try dealing with the issues Sandown and not the posters. All too often those who cannot deal with the points try to insult the poster.
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I have not said that anything is yet lost with Australia except to say that he is not good enough to match Nashwan let alone Nijinsky so a superstar? Maybe but he has still to prove that he can win a G1 let alone be the best ever Flat horse AOB has trained. Some way to go.
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A compliment indeed, albeit a back-handed one
So you'd rate those winners as typical Gp1 standard horses? |
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![]() Very touchy |
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Getting back to the point the reason it was important he ran Australia in the 2000 Gns fully backed up what he had said about Australia and only enhances his Derby claims imo. Had he swerved the 2000 Gns then I think that would have detracted from his view and had he easily won a trial race, a formality surely, he may have even been shorter for the Derby.
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Feltfair it was mostly you who talked me into having a bet so I'm not talking to you at the moment.
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What horse did I talk you into backing?
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This was no Camelot Guineas. There were several Group 1 winners in this race
Australia easily beat War Command who clearly wasn't good enough to win an average 2000 Gns. So was it a good gns or an average/poor gns iyo brigust1? |
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There seems to be some backtracking going on as far as WC is concerned. I always said he could win a Gp1 but he was at the lower end of the scale, those were my words, he was no star based on his Coventry win, imo. He did win a Gp1, the Dewhurst, which most people and ratings firms agreed was a moderate renewal and the form substandard.
The opposing argument put forward after the Coventry was that WC was an above average Gp1 horse in the making, his final time and finishing splits all pointed to this. It was also said that because of his physique he was almost certain to improve. Brigust's position was that O'Brien might actually mean what he said about Australia, he was therefore most likely to run in the Guineas and finish ahead of War Command. The opposing arguments rubbished both prospects. Sometimes you just have to accept you were wrong, as I was about Toormore ![]() |
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FELTFAIR • October 18, 2013 6:47 PM BST
Brig, Austalia is currently 7/1 on here for the 2000G in a market that is already way overbroke. At what point do you decide to have a bet? What is stopping you backing your opinion? |
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So you'd rate those winners as typical Gp1 standard horses?
I don't know about typical but below average for sure. I'm not expecting WC to prove any better than mid 120@s so no superstar for sure, but unless he was unfit he is proving below my expectations so far. |What I do know is that if a horse has shown once that he is capable of a run like his Coventry run then he can repeat. When? Don't know that. |
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Sandown I have to say it looked a good 2000 Gns on paper. All of the top 2 year olds and main classic guide race winners turned up. I can't think of any horse who may have improved the race had he run. However the result is clearly confusing and may or may not prove to be accurate.
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The opposing argument put forward after the Coventry was that WC was an above average Gp1 horse in the making
G1 horse yes. Above average? Don't think that was ever mentioned although mid 120's possibly even 127 potential, yes indeed. That was mid-June remember, so not too bad a call. |