The first 7 home rate 100+ on my scale and all sit in the top 18 rated last 6 years

Alarm bells should be ringing?

Thats 129 projected by the way. I have the final time rating as 116 for the present.

On those last 2f, I'd be adding 6 to NOT, 3 to Kingman and just 1 to Australia.
Does make the performance look even better. From watching it I thought Fallon had rode a better race than Doyle with perhaps Doyle going too soon but those sectionals suggest otherwise and if Fallon had gone earlier he'd have won further imo.

anyway I'll ask you Harry, where do you put this years Guineas winner compared to previous guineas winners ?

difficult question for me stevie tbh as am not one for having years of data...i would say a average winner would be at least of 124-125 standard and a low winner around the 120 mark which is actually what i consider an average group 1 winner...i always thought kings best was a good winner but did he just beat a top class 1m2f horse in giants causeway but he was certainly up to a high standard but was unproven going into the race...the poor guineas winners i had golan a poor winner, camelot, makfi, refuse to bend...the one horse i still cannot believe was rated so low was mister baileys as i thought he beat come good horses at the time, don't ask me to go any earlier as they are before i was properly race reading

i have to be careful with this one as will get mugged but like to keep myself honest...as much as frankel visually was machine like, i still retain he beat drains...he was a monster as we all know but it was always a shame there was never really a top class miler to challenge him in his guineas race...for me he was a better horse further down the season as he certainly wasn't right in the st james palace

the better winners for me were pennekamp...he is my favorite winner of the race and think he was a proper horse and beat a proper horse in his own right in celtic swing who himself i believe ran every ounce to the form book and was just beaten by a class group 1 horse who had improved...i still retain he lost nothing in defeat that day but imo it broke him moving forwards, as he gave everything and was trained to win that day...he is my best winner...some will argue this but i retain they were high class horses

Entrepreneur was a good middling winner

i can see why you asked me the question though and trying to find comparisions would certainly help how you race read stevie and in fairness i have slept on it now and have unearthed more questions in my head in regards where i am at

as much as from a handicapping point of view i am struggling to rate it higher maybe i should rate it a tad more but for me shifting power and charm spirit just won't allow me at this stage...one thing i would say is as much as i didn't rate the race pre-race maybe i am being a tad harsh as there were still plenty of decent middling 115 horses running in there...so as much as i have it low class wise the race itself may turn out much better than the bare facts and you maybe right stevie moving forwards, it may prove i have severely underrated the race, so am just going to put him in the 120-123 bracket as he can clearly improve from this but the horses who finished close up still hold me back a tad

i still rate this winner and have ever since he won on debut...am a little gutted as sometimes i can get a bee in my bonnet and i did like him, as had his doncaster win a real decent race with some decent 100 horses thrashed...am disappointed tbh as should of come down heavier on him as knew he was good but that is racing

the race itself - i have a feeling it favoured the far side as i think the spanish horse who will be a good sprinter this season took them to the furlong pole and certainly gave them a nice speed edge lead into the race, you can't tell me toormore could live with those fractions so did they have a speed bias the far side??

sandown what is the early fractions in comparision from toormore to noozah...do you know pal?? or have you got the furlong for furlong?

hughes was certainly looking across as if maybe out of his comfort zone

129 looks a bit high to me,Sandown,lots of those behind would have performed to a very high standard if that is the case?( or is it many with similar ability?)

Ped, have to say I'm amazed you can rate NoT a massive 9lbs higher than Sea The Stars' Guineas performance.

absolutely correct, Figgis, database has omitted the 11lbs WFA allowance for my 2009 ratings, so pile of rubbish

100+ ratings should read (leaving first 7 home in 2014 amongst the top 22 rated)

Rating    Pos    Year    Horse
125    1    2011    Frankel
117    1    2013    Dawn Approach
116    1    2009    Sea The Stars
114    1    2014    Night Of Thunder
113    2    2014    Kingman
112    3    2014    Australia
112    2    2009    Delegator
109    1    2010    Makfi
109    3    2009    Gan Amhras
108    4    2009    Rip Van Winkle
107    2    2011    Dubawi Gold
106    3    2011    Native Khan
105    4    2014    Shifting Power
105    2    2010    Dick Turpin
104    3    2010    Canford Cliffs
103    5    2014    Charm Spirit
103    5    2009    Mastercraftsman
103    6    2009    Evasive
102    2    2013    Glory Awaits
101    6    2014    Noozhoh Canarias
101    7    2014    Toormore
101    4    2010    Xtension

thx stevie by the way...sandown help me out here or anyone else apologies

Ped, that's more like it , still think you're doing Camelot a bit of a disservice to have him so far behind but it's all about opinions.

Harry C

out of interest in terms of lengths .1 of a second would be how far...sandown help me out her

Don't work in lengths on times but 0.2 secs = 2 lbs at a mile for me. Officially 6L= 1 sec at a mile I think.

thx sandown so could we say toormore had to use more energy or make ground between the 5 and 3 pole compared with noozah taking a breather??

pedro well done on the lay by the way lovely job...just out of interest did your cheeks squeeze at the furlong markerhe went 1.34 in the run...i couldn't believe that btw and kingman done at 1.24...the tappers went crazy

pedro i also have kingman running below his best but you think it was a very good race so you must think him a near 130 horse no??... so just how good do you believe the race to be baring in mind how low you had australia pre-race...did you have shifting power running that well, along with charm spirit??

these are mine bug bares are they not yours either sandown?? does these horses not hold you back rating it that high??

on time figures, Harry, Night Of Thunder rates the 4th best winner in last 6 years, so wouldn't call it a very good race, but at the very least, a solid one with plenty of depth - which it looked beforehand?

Agree Australia did very well considering lack of a run against the others in the first seven home who were hard fit and older than him. He was trying to defy a pretty damning foaling date stat which shows how much these 3yos are still maturing at this stage.

If O'Brien truly meant he was the best horse he's ever had, he arguably should have still won given the very good horses passed through his hands. If he meant he might be the best middle distance horse he's ever had, Australia still has time to prove that. We'll certainly never see him anywhere near a mile ever again will we, which was the major argument against him beforehand together with bigger profile targets later on and unlikely to be 100% fit. (But never ever any sweat on the lay, once your money is down, may as well keep smiling even if it is going down the pan )

Shifting Power and Charm Spirit have improved, agreed, but why not as both were very lightly raced and the former unbeaten?

Kingman looked like he might progress to the equivalent of a 130 horse in the greenham, but he went slightly backwards yesterday imo with little apparent excuse despite Gosden complaining about the field split. The winner suffered the same fate, came from further back and hung at the finish to boot. I estimate my figs to be around 8-10lbs shy of official figures or RPR's, so would have the winner around 124-125, but with possibly more to come as indeed must Australia. As earlier, the 1st and 3rd set a decent standard for the Derby imo, though doesn't sound like connections of Night Of Thunder have it on their mind?

noozah needed a breather according to the sectionals,just not serious about winning the race with such a burst of early speed.

on time figures, Harry, Night Of Thunder rates the 4th best winner in last 6 years, so wouldn't call it a very good race, but at the very least, a solid one with plenty of depth - which it looked beforehand?


well pedro as you know i thought the race lacked any real class bar kingman and who i still believe is a very special colt and for me didn't back up....

i suppose we could say it had depth in terms of plenty of middling horses or say kingston needed soft ground at that distance as the result proved the horses at the top of the market were beatable and really didn't have much in hand against the suppose lesser horses who unless improved massively just lead us to yes a competitive race that should work out but also to be realistic in terms of class although i do like this winner and he could be very good...i suppose war command was just out for a run and the irish will be his day...

shifting did improve but he did run in a handicap on his last start so we have to be realistic and for what it's worth i think you wanted to be with the spanish horse who is clearly a decent sprinter in the making and gave them a lovely lead to the furlong marker...so a bit of credit to toormore who had to try and stay with him but ultimately payed for it

My conclusions are

1. The winner is better than his RPR of 124 and he will be the one to beat over 8f during the summer.He finished in a faster fraction than any Gns winner in the past 10 years.Don't see him as a Derby horse

2. Kingman may need softer ground as he is a heavy topped horse according to Jim McGrath and he may not have appreciated the faster ground. He can come good again.

3. Australia ran even fractions which suggests he will stay 12f but he will have to improve around 10lbs to win the Derby imo - possible with improvement expected for an increase in trip plus a run under his belt. His price is too short for me at this stage.

4. War Command, Kingston Hill, Toormore all disappointed for one reason or another.As G1 winners they can't be written off yet.

Just thinking back to last year and how Declaration of War was disappointing in the Lockinge and then next time out won the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, like that horse pehaps War Command needs more work to put him spot on.

I won't be backing Australia just yet, however, as I have no interest in taking such short prices so long before a race. Hopefully something will come out of the trials and take a chunk of the market. I'm not sure how much shorter Australia can go before the race, he is only a Guineas third after all, and even though personally I have him 1lb ahead of Camelot's Guineas win, it's hard to see him attracting as much public cash as a winner would. I suppose it depends on how much those connected will get stuck in.

Change in ground conditions,will be a worry for some in the coming months,many not yet seen a quick surface,we did have a damp year last year,once again.

Australia over further may have to learn to settle,or will he be the pace? :-)

I think the stands side was slower,I think there was some panic in the early  furlongs and they could not get level with noozah.