I would be amazed if Outstrip was their favoured horse but if things did go that way I would see it as a big negative for Be Ready rather than a positive for Outstrip, I can't see that horse being good enough to win anything more than a very poor Guineas.

Yes, I asked what others thought about Lat Hawill before, not seen anyone else mention him until now. It's impossible to know the limit of a horse's ability when it's only had one start and wins as impressively as he did, he was well fancied too. I'm going to aftertime and say I backed the last 2 once raced 2yo winners ante post, Golan and Doyoun, for me Lat Hawill didn't show as much as they did. Also the Guineas they won were pretty weak, this year's looks stronger at this stage but of course we don't know how it'll turn out on the day. I won't be throwing any money at him on the off chance he's a bit special, if he does win it's just one of those results you take on the chin.

Harry will put you up on that aftertiming thread for that Figgis, though aftertimes that far back can only be annoying
if you heavily backed the 2nd in those 2 guineas and are still feeling it.

Saeed Bin Suroor (Be Ready) a notorious slow starter. Last 5 years:

April 5-40 12.5% April
May 32-220, 14.5%
June 54-324, 16.7%
July onwards, min 20%

Since 2000 with runners coming off a 100+ day layoff, he's a paltry 2-40 at the Guineas meeting (Hi Dubai in Pretty Polly 2003 and Kazzia 2002 1000 Guineas)

And since 2003, 0-28 with just 3 of those managing a 2nd or 3rd

So no wonder Bin Suroor giving Be Ready a prep for the Guineas. But that might not help being 0-4 at the Greenham meeting since 2000, 5th, 9th, 12th and 20th)

He has never had a runner at the Guineas meeting with less than a 34 day layoff.

A 2-18 record (Etesaal in 2005 and Marienbard in 2002) with those who ran less than 100 days and had presumably been running at Nad Al Sheba or Meydan.

Sounds like Be Ready been trained in Newmarket this winter, a big change in policy by Godoolphin if that the case?

To aftertime again, I've never backed a Godolphin runner in the Guineas during that period, unfortunately I didn't back their 2 winners either, but I've never seen one I thought would win. I think they have the right horse on their hands this time. The only worry I would have is the horse picking up a knock before he gets there, which has seemed to happen an awful lot to many of their intended runners in recent seasons.

Harry, no I suppose it's not a negative in that sense, even if it increases the chances of him getting burned out before the end of the season that won't affect his Guineas chances. I just see it a bit negatively as, given they've got other horses ready for targets without a prep before, it suggests he needs a run, which might just be lack of fitness but also raises the possibility that he's just not showing what they expect. Also, as I said before that their horses seem to have been a bit injury prone recently then an extra race could mean more risk of that. Hopefully, for me, all will be well.

Yes, fair enough, penzance, he would've been a worthy Guineas winner without Henry.

Are there any horse that Suroor has trained, who turned out the best the best 3y/o, but didn't win a guineas ? or any other trainer for that matter. It's all well pointing out records, but there's more to these stats than just numbers.  Also, my question is what would you rather win if you had a horse, the mile races at the first half or second half of the season ? i don't see the guineas as the be all and end all. Is Dawn Approach better than Toronado because he won a guineas ? Would you take the qe2 and Breeders cup classic, or a 2000gs and St james palace ?(ravens/henry). Was Makfi better than Canford Cliffs ?

Would you take the qe2 and Breeders cup classic, or a 2000gs and St james palace ?

Coolmore will take the classics all day long for stallion purposes

agree with what you're saying re breeding, Graeme.

Though generally think the best horse wins the Guineas. Don't think there have too many hard luck stories over the years whilst accepting the cases you've pointed out where a beaten horse has improved past the winner later in the year

in the top 20 that is

I think Godolphin would take whatever they can get, a garbage return for their outlay for a few years now.

I'd say the manner in which he won the race is what looks best on his CV. He took the race out of everything else as soon as he left the stall. The derby is the one that really gets the breeders talking, and if a guineas is thrown in there along with it, it helps. I'm not so sure the guineas is the be all and end all if the winner doesn't go on and do bigger things. If i had a 'proper horse', i wouldn't have it rushed to win the guineas, especially if it wasn't capable of getting a strong 12f.

"I find it bizarre for you to suggest that if you had owned Frankel you would not have gone to the Guineas"




I didn't. I said i wouldn't have a horse rushed for the guineas i.e Ravens Pass. I think Gosden made the right call. Frankel was more naturallya thletic though, and they know he could take all the mile races.

People who buy into racing know how a guineas was won, and who it was won against. There's a reason some guineas winners stand for 20 grand, and some are moe expensive. Nobody picks up a catalogue and thinks Makfi is as good as Frankel because they won the same race.

found it apologies

I agree with that.Thought the horse looked on really good terms with itself and I would think would have a great chance at HQ

The 2 horses who you would say have earned their place in the line-up for me would be Toormore and War Command.
Toormore won a G2 at Goodwood and then the G1 National Stakes.
War Commamd won the Coventry by 6l and then won the Dewhurst.
If it comes up fast ground at Newmarket and WC is not there then the race is missing one of the leading contenders
and if Australia gets beat and WC wins the french version easily then questions need to be asked.

I've no bet in the race but the hype is so annoying that it almost makes me want the horse to fail...though I suppose I'd be seduced by a spectacular performance.

I actually find it disrespectful to the connections of other horses to a certain extent....I really hope there's an absolute superstar lurking in one of the other stables.

The price of Australia is amazingly low, but we have seen it before. I remember well all the hype about King of Kings (won the Guineas at a silly short price). Of course Australia is a crazy price. Bred for the Derby and without the form needed to win a classic anyway I was hugely impressed win his win from the Weld horse. However the merit of the form is in doubt and Australia seemed to take an age to really get going, he did not look like a 2000 Guineas winner to me; a Derby winner but 5/2 for the 2000 guineas - madness. Of course he may just prove all the hype quite correct.