Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 2391 comments are related to the topic:
2000 GUINEAS (2014)
2000 GUINEAS (2014)
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 2,391
|
By:
it's quite clear Aidan's horse are backward judged on weekend's racing.
So given that his horses hardly do any strong work prior to the Curragh workout, the "message" that went out to spark the Austalia gamble can only be considered entirely bogus. Still plenty of time for him to be A1 on Guineas day. Fair enough if you are on at 16's+, but his recent backers have been well and truly duped. |
|
By:
The market is still quite weak imo. Australia now trading at 3.35 with little in the pink column. Toormore went as low as 6.2 last week but is now 7.8.
|
|
By:
6.6 not 6.2.
|
|
By:
AOB 1/22 since March 14. Bracelet won 7/1 otherwise lots of disappointing runs eg Indian Maharaja 8/11 btn 10L,Magician 5/2 btn 3L,Giovanni Boldini 2/1 btn 3+L,Belisarius 13/8 btn 7L,Shield 4/9 btn 19L 8 others under 10/1 btn. Very slow start, as usual.
|
|
By:
Hopefully the slow start will make them realise that they shouldn't rush Australia to get him to the Guineas when he is more of a Derby horse and send him to Leopardstown instead and send War Command to Newmarket where the strongly run mile will suit him perfectly.
|
|
By:
Some savage War Command straw clutching been going on while I have been away. Apart from some clear suggestions from other more knowledgeable posters that WC's form simply isn't good enough AOB also spelt it out in clear terms on TV. The time to bailout has already gone but at least for those who still think WC could win the Guineas there is likely to be an opportunity for recompense on another day. Personally I think WC will struggle or be extremely lucky to pick up another prize at the top level. And my fear is that AOB is using what he believes to be Australia's superiority over WC as his guide.
|
|
By:
Sorry if someone has already mentioned this fella but I've been intrigued by the Spanish bred colt Noozhoh Canarias. I remember his Jean-Luc Lagardere run last year behind Karakontie which I think was pretty good considering he ran far to free throughout the race. I've watched his other 2yr old races on YouTube and he does look to be a bit head strong which seemed to be the case again yesterday when he beat some rags in Madrid on the bridle. His trainer is adamant that he needs good quick ground and a strong pace to show his best which he hasn't had so far, I get the feeling a fast 8f at Newmarket could be right up his street. RP Ratings suggest he's not miles behind some of these and he could be an improver if gets the right conditions IMO. Breeding also suggests he should get 8f even though he looks to have a lot of speed so far.
Would he be a shorter price if he was trained by someone in Newmarket/Ireland or am I barking up the wrong tree?! Any thoughts would be greatly received as I'm no speed/ratings guru and there ain't much to go by on the Racing Post website. |
|
By:
I wouldn't make any connection between the form of O'Brien's horses so far this season and the chances of his Guineas horses. If O'Brien really wants to win the Guineas with a horse, he ensures they don't fail for lack of fitness. He's nothing if not a top class conditioner of horses. It's perfectly possible that the likes of Australia are far in advance of the rank and file, and it's not inconceivable that Australia has already shown some encouraging class at home. If Australia turns up at HQ, he'll be fit and raring to run to peak performance.
|
|
By:
MrD I looked up Nooz after he was beaten in France. Soumi made all kinds of excuses and the horses behind were reasonably regarded at the time. There are some poor form lines and some fair ones but I couldn't back a Spanish horse in an English classic. It may well happen one and I wouldn't be a layer either. If he turns up on the day, has a good draw and decent ground I may well lay at something shortish in running. I can see many of the main hopes holding fire until late on or simply staying on at the end.
|
|
By:
As an anti-Australian, I've decided to take a fresh look as if trying to find reasons to be positive about his chances. There's a striking similarity to Sea The Stars on juvenile form. Both were beaten in, before winning, 7f maidens, and both won group races over a mile as 2yos. The RPRs for STS and Australia for those three runs: 88, 88; 94, 95; 112, 118. Australia won with more ease over a mile. The big difference, of course, is in the sire: Cape Cross vs Galileo. I would be interested to hear from pedigree experts on this. I'm inexperienced at trying to read pedigrees. It would appear to me that STS had miling speed from the sire as well as stamina and class from the damside. It's easy to imagine Australia having inherited stamina and class from Galileo, but you would usually expect speed to be injected on the damside for a Guineas winner - Frankel, for example, came out of a 6f sprinter. Ouija Board's sons have not had any real speed, so the question is whether Australia has has inherited some of Cape Cross' speed?
|
|
By:
a winter's hibernation not dimmed your faith in the Australia'n plodder, brigust?
 |
|
By:
No hibernation Pedro, just too much work. My betting slows a good deal with only a spell between Boxing Day and Cheltenham to concentrate on.
I've always said I know nothing more than anyone else about this good horse. The only difference being I had decided to believe what AOB has been saying. Simply because it started way back and he is doing all the right things. Stopping him early, aiming low etc. The recording after the gallop at the Curragh was a bit of a clincher. We are still in the running and everything is to play for. |
|
By:
Briggy, I agree with you about the form, there are bits and bobs which look OK. I also get what you mean about him being Spanish but he is by G1 winner Caradak who loved quick ground so that's the angle I'm taking with him. He may be an improver and he looks like he's trained on which is a plus. At an EW price I think he's tempting, I will probably look to back him on the day because he will more than likely be friendless in the market, he is Spanish after all. Olé
|
|
By:
brigust1
31 Mar 14 17:56 Joined: 07 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 7,568 | Blogger: brigust1's blog Some savage War Command straw clutching been going on while I have been away. Apart from some clear suggestions from other more knowledgeable posters that WC's form simply isn't good enough AOB also spelt it out in clear terms on TV. The time to bailout has already gone but at least for those who still think WC could win the Guineas there is likely to be an opportunity for recompense on another day. Personally I think WC will struggle or be extremely lucky to pick up another prize at the top level. And my fear is that AOB is using what he believes to be Australia's superiority over WC as his guide. as you know brigust i'm not a backer of this horse... however why are you saying people are clutching at straws when this horse has been prominent in the betting for the guineas for so long and to my eye worked well the other day...he is a dewhurst and coventry winner, so why make a stupid statement like this^^^whether you fancy him or not? i'm not a backer but don't like this much at all...pretty **** really, towards those that have... lets hope all the best horses turn up for the classic, then we get all the questions answered that we have been debating since last year...luckily i don't have to pocket talk, as haven't had a bet but hope for the best horses on the day... in an already weak looking addition of this race imo war command not turning up will just weaken it further for me |
|
By:
Can't stand when punters start talking like a horse has already won.
|
|
By:
* stand it
re Australia. |
|
By:
Sorry howellsy, but why would Australia inherit speed from Cape Cross? .....or is that your point?
|
|
By:
Maybe because Ouija Board is by Cape Cross, genetics can work in strange and spooky ways Roo.
 |
|
By:
Oh right fair point, thought he was getting confused and it was me. Must be getting old, wouldn't have thought Cape Cross had been a sire that long
|
|
By:
We could go back to Green Desert but for me Australia is a NO.
C'mon, we don't really want that country being called our 2000 Guineas winner... only joking, my favourite soap is Home and Away and I love Vegemite sandwiches! |
|
By:
Harry that is a bit rich. In the last week reams of obtuse comments including 'mug punters', hype machine, rope in the punters, hype wheel, rancid crew in fact far too many to mention yet when I stand by what AOB has said you moan like the north wind ffs.
In June last year AOB was making statements about him being the best horse he has ever trained. In March this year he reiterated that point and added more including where War Command was likely to run. Had he said nothing at all and run both in the Guineas and Australia beat WC you would be bleating and moaning then. Saying it was a stitch up and a fix. Had he left it until the last minute when he was certain Australia was going to run then switched WC to France you would have been screaming from the roof tops. Ffs look at yourself. What more could anyone want? AOB may be accused of going over the top or bulling up his horses but bent he ain't. There is absolutely no point in it whatsoever. |
|
By:
The recording after the gallop at the Curragh was a bit of a clincher.
Brig, the irony is all the "judges" were more impressed with War Command in that gallop, yet he is the one not going to Newmarket. O'Brien must be quaking in his boots that he's about to commit a Mullins Champion Hurdle faux pas, leaving his most likely Guineas winner at home all in aid of trying to get a Triple Crown out of a stayer. Joseph Allen can't be that impressed by the way he's been treated by his "partners" |
|
By:
roobuck - cape cross has been a stallion since 2000...Sire of 157 Stakes performers (43 Group winners, 43 Listed winners)
he did start in new zealand i believe before shuttling between europe and australia brigust i am merely pulling you up on your comments towards people who may have had an ante post bet on war command... my reasons for calling them a rancid crew is to do with the state of british breeding and how much they are monopolizing it and thus driving british breeders into the ground or should i say they already have i never like to be too condescending to other punters and if i do have, i apologise, hence me not calling people mugs In June last year AOB was making statements about him being the best horse he has ever trained. In March this year he reiterated that point and added more including where War Command was likely to run. Had he said nothing at all and run both in the Guineas and Australia beat WC you would be bleating and moaning then. Saying it was a stitch up and a fix. Had he left it until the last minute when he was certain Australia was going to run then switched WC to France you would have been screaming from the roof tops. Ffs look at yourself. What more could anyone want? AOB may be accused of going over the top or bulling up his horses but bent he ain't. There is absolutely no point in it whatsoever. this is very delusional statement brigust, lay off the glue pot i would say...like i said my comments are purely on what these people are doing to british racing and breeding... you make what you will and slander like you have done above, all you want, as your comments are nothing like me, so get your facts straight... |
|
By:
brigust1
31 Mar 14 22:23 In June last year AOB was making statements about him being the best horse he has ever trained. surprising you heard him saying this about him in june, when o'brien himself didn't even know in june? judging by this comment after he won his maiden in july, he went off 5-2 to win his group race?? surprising really when he was being talked of, as the best horse he has ever trained aiden o'briens comments after he won his maiden in july last year...beating the unraced dermot weld filly QUOTES: Winning trainer Aidan O´Brien:"Australia fell asleep in the stalls last time and was still very babyish today. The penny hasn´t dropped for him yet but he could be anything and we´ll take our time with him." he could be anything??...my interpretation of this comment, isn't that he believed the horse to be the best he has ever trained |
|
By:
I agree with the first bit Ped because he did seem to be going well into the bridle. I have a suspicion he will end up in the July Cup so in a steady gallop he would look strong. What almost everyone seems to believe is that WC is a potential 2000 Gns winner being denied the opportunity. I don't think he is anything of the sort and he wouldn't even be placed at Newmarket.
Harry if you read any of my earlier renditions I have said that AOB monopoly of the best horses in training is crazy and bad for the sport. He has ruined the chances of far too many hoses imo and for any trainer to have so many runners in the Derby etc plus the vast majority of entries in Group 1 races must be damaging for the sport. In the 2000 Guineas he has more entries than John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute, Richard Hannon and Said Bin Suroor put together. And that pattern is the same throughout the year. The other comment you made is silly. You really should take some time and read the threads posted in the last week. |
|
By:
brigust1 • November 29, 2013 11:50 AM GMT
I know it grates to quote AOB, and he could be talking rubbish again, but at the time War Command was winning the Coventry he was telling everyone that Australia had bags of speed and was doing things no other 2 year old he has trained has ever done. IF, and it is a big IF, IF AOB is right the Guineas will be no problem at all against what we have seen so far. |
|
By:
talking with my mate the other day about the gallop, he was mightly impressed with johann strauss
|
|
By:
Brigust has come back very tetchy.
|
|
By:
I wouldn't pay too much attention the the Curragh gallop, it's turning into a look at me type of exercise. We don't know their instructions or weight being carried etc.
I remember a couple of years back similar debates on who went best , Wading or Maybe - neither won another race! |
|
By:
Not tetchy at all Felt. Just reading though some of the comments posted in the last week makes you realise how many people cannot accept what they see and hear. Hanging on every available alternative point in the hope something goes wrong in AOB's mind and he changes it. WC is in the high 30's on here so if anyone believes he is a Guineas winner in waiting what are they waiting for? I've backed many ante post losers and non-runners in the past and you have to move on. I've also backed (only after much goading) and followed AOB with Australia but even without that I hope we see a champion because that is what makes this sport so enjoyable. If he loses I've backed a loser, so what? I've backed losers before. But if he wins then the Derby, Eclipse, King George and Arc could easily be on his agenda. What a fantastic season this could be. He won't run in the St Leger, so forget that idea, because if he wins the Guineas and Derby etc then they will aim him at the Arc and the St Leger or Irish Derby would be completely stupid.
|
|
By:
I don't recall seeing or hearing any comments from AOB about Australia being the best he's trained until he smashed Free Eagle. I certainly don't remember him saying stuff anything like that at the time War Command won the Coventry. Anyway, it doesn't count for much. He'll go to the Guineas with no Group 1 form and I suspect he'll be taken on by most people.
|
|
By:
brigust1
Well done in stating the case for Australia for the Guineas and being proved correct.In defence of the alternative view, i.e. that Australia would be given the traditional Derby prep route of Leopardstown & 10f etc, well it just goes to show how hard it is to rely on past trainer form.As for hyping the horse, well AOB has such a long history of doing that, that even a claim of "the second best horse I've ever trained" comment (after Istabraq) about a horse that has yet to win a G1, given the top class horses he has had, seemed like the ultimate in hype.Well, the Fat Lady has not yet even risen, let alone started to sing,and the horse has still to get to Newmarket, and even if it does, it has still to win the race.I would much prefer to base my own betting on judgement of the form book and the odds on offer, rather than a trainers views of the merit of his horse, and from a betting standpoint Australia for the Guineas has long been a joke price. IMO it will be longer on the day for those who might be betting on it. No doubt I will be wrong about that as well. As for War Command, I would point out that the horse has already won a G1, that being the Dewhurst, surely the best race for 2 yr old colts, and supporters of the horse, of which I am one, do not need to defend the horse in any way.It has proven many judges wrong that its Coventry win was less than it looked. Whether it wins another G1, we shall see, but to my mind, whilst no doubt not aspiring to be a "great" it looks well up to average and we will see it win another G1 I'm sure, even if you do not agree. Incidentally, as you based your Australia view on AOB comments, why do you not give the same weight weight to his view on WC, which is that he is a strong, exciting animal who has done well over the winter, one who will get a mile comfortably? I paraphrase, but perhaps you missed those comments earlier this year? |
|
By:
PS
He won't run in the St Leger, so forget that idea I'm not so sure that you will be proven right on this. To my mind the pursuit of the Triple Crown, ignited by Camelot's near success, is the reason why they are aiming Australia at the Gns and not giving it the traditional middle distance campaign. |
|
By:
AOB's comments do need to be taken seriously to a point and the fact that he seems happy to point WC elsewhere is indeed a tip in itself. Though the current price is ridiculous for what he has achieved, would I be happy with the OP's position? Yes of course I would and I probably wouldn't lay off.
However you cannot help sense much of what is said and the campaign that will be followed, if he is good enough, is driven by Coolmore and their long-term financial plans. The recent years have given us both Sea the Stars and Frankel and that is driving them bonkers and whilst they have Galileo at the moment, they need to find a long term replacement. Would it be great for the sport to have another Champion? Yes I suppose it would. But then again part of the real joy of STS and Frankel was that the horses ultimately were left to speak for themselves and unfortunately with AOB you would get a huge amount of running commentary |
|
By:
It is well documented Sin even the journo's on the ATR forum say he has been talked about as his best even before he ran. But there you go. And I certainly on't think the majority of people will be against him. That's plain silly.
And two points to remember. 1) Dancing Brave was a late foal born in May. 2) He had only won two conditions races before retiring for the winter as one of the Guineas favourites. In his first race he beat a Bath maiden winner and in his 2nd race he beat a load of maidens. And look what happened to him. Sandown I claim nothing for supporting Australia. I was only repeating the bleeding obvious. In fact I only backed him for the big races because I talked myself into it. It's just as I said everything AOB did this time was different in my view. And in hs actions I think he is doing everthing right. It doesn't make him win but there you are. You may be right about War Command but, unlike with Australia, everything points against him imo. His form isn't great and he is definitely beatable and obviously Australia is far supperior in AOB's mind. So if you don't rate Australia then WC is even further down the list. As far as the Triple Crown is concerned if he wins the 2000 Gns and Derby easily ffs lay him for everything in the St Leger. He will not run. AOB has shown a mental attitude about this horse so the St Leger will go by the wayside. If, however, he struggles to win the Derby and gets beaten in the Guineas then the St Leger may be an option but by then it won't matter. |
|
By:
brigust1
It is worth remembering that it is Magnier and the "lads" who call the shots at Ballydoyle and if the great man is excited about winning the Triple Crown, as his comments about Camelot at the time implied, then that is where Australia (bred in the purple to be a class middle distance horse) will head. As for "the bleeding obvious" it is just as likely that Camelot's campaign was seen as being undermined by being prepared too early for him to last into the Autumn. Running him on soft ground did not help either. If, as we are to surmise, Australia is the second coming of Eclipse, then the percentage call was to judge that the "lads" would not risk the Gns route again.That is what seemed "bleeding obvious." Nevertheless, and like a stopped clock is right twice a day, you called it correctly. As I said, well done. |
|
By:
It's not that people do not rate him, Brigust. Lots of people do, on potential. And then there is the question of 1 mile being his correct distance. All valid points and fair ones. You can't say a horse is a superstar just because the trainer says it. I would have thought that is ''bleedin obvious'' tbh.
Roo, yeah it would be good to have another superstar. As it stands at the moment though happy enough to have layed him at close to the bottom price he went. I would not be surprised if he bounces out to 3/1 in the next couple of weeks. No much waiting to back him now and the ''Lads'' would surely want some kind of price on the day. |
|
By:
Just reading though some of the comments posted in the last week makes you realise how many people cannot accept what they see and hear.
Brig, if people go what they hear from Aidan O'Brien, that Australia is better than Galileo, Hawk Wing, Rock Of Gib, High Chaparral, Dylan Thomas, So You Think, George Washington etc, then Australia should be 1/2 favourite for the Guineas right now, not 2/1. By he way, it's pretty clear that lot were better than Camelot - the last horse that O'Brien proclaimed his best ever: "Camelot is a great horse and won there despite Joseph saying that he absolutely hated the ground. We´ve never had one like him and wouldn´t it be something to dream about now to go for the Triple Crown, but the lads will have to talk about that." - Aidan O'Brien after winning the Irish Derby However if you go by what you see on the racecourse, on what Australia actually has achieved on both form and time ratings, Australia's true price is around 14-16/1 given his breeding screams middle distances. You may be right about War Command but, unlike with Australia, everything points against him imo. His form isn't great and he is definitely beatable and obviously Australia is far supperior in AOB's mind. So if you don't rate Australia then WC is even further down the list. AOB is not basing his belief in Australia on form or objectivity. The "speed" that Australia has shown at home remains mere mythical Coolmore hype until he actually shows it on a racecourse (and he's had three attempts already) As Sandown and others have pointed out, Coolmore, not so much O'Brien, are desperate for a Triple Crown winner to "outdo" Sea The Stars and Frankel who look likely to become the next super stallions unless Coolmore pull something special out of their breeding factory. As far as the Triple Crown is concerned if he wins the 2000 Gns and Derby easily ffs lay him for everything in the St Leger. He will not run. Again as Sandown and others already pointed out. Australia doesn't have the form or the breeding to win the Guineas. Yet he is running in it. Why? To win the Triple Crown. Of course he will run in the Leger should he land the first two legs. Brig, surely you must be disappointed that O'Brien not giving Australia a prep race as I think you suggested he couldn't win at Newmarket without one? Rather then the horse drifting, I'm hoping the "mugs" listen to the O'Brien hype and force Australia into evens fav for the Guineas. Unless equine herpes has ruled out half the opposition, I will actually take your advice for once - "ffs lay him for everything..... " |
|
By:
War Command certainly has not proved many judges wrong yet, at least not on here anyway. I didn't see anybody on here say he wasn't capable of taking a poor renewal of a 2yo Gp1 race, in fact that that was exactly what was stated as a possibility after the Coventry. Before the Dewhurst it was agreed he had the best form in the race and was the most likely winner. Whether the Dewhurst is always the best race for 2yos depends if you only base your opinion on the history of a race, the general consensus was that last year's Dewhurst was a poor renewal and the winning form comparatively moderate. In other words, he's done no more than was expected of him after the Coventry, he's still to prove he's the potentially very good horse he looked in the Coventry and he's still to show that his 'size and scope' was an almost guarantee of improvement to come on the track.
|
|
By:
last year's Dewhurst was a poor renewal
Must have been as only Outstrip has run since and he only won the G1 BC Juveunile. |