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thehoffisback
23 Aug 11 17:07
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Date Joined: 22 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 1,072 | Blogger: thehoffisback's blog
just been doing some research on the race, looking through the runners.  on the rp website though it seems there have been no declarations on the main runners that i'm looking at. I like the look of so you think as well as nathaniel.  obviously workforce is the bollocks and he can come back to form fresh.

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By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 25 Aug 11 14:34
Pour Moi's price is easing. Anyone heard any rumours?
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 26 Aug 11 13:14
It seemed to harden up after I posted that ^ but it's soft again today and last matched 9/2.
Seeing as the bookies are still 11/4 and 3/1, and it was steadily backed at 7/2 on here, I
keep wondering if there's somebody who has heard something???
By:
San Quentin
When: 26 Aug 11 14:01
Who knows i dont know anything, but scalos out.This was Scalos main target all year with a good run race had a place chance.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 26 Aug 11 15:26
Wohler should have gone last year with Scalo.  I have a soft spot for the Germans but (Schiergen and Hirschberger aside) they really need to get this older horse thing out their heads when it comes to the Arc.
By:
tobermory
When: 26 Aug 11 15:36
Pour Moi seems rather short IMO

Easy to see 6 or 7 horses turning up with a similar level of form to him.

Won't be 3/1 then, more like 11/2.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 26 Aug 11 16:53
Last matched price is 8.0

Perhaps people are thinking like you tobermory.
I have been wondering for weeks why Workforce is as big a price as he is.

It still seems odd to me that PM is drifting suddenly. Plenty was matched at 7/2
By:
mr_sykes
When: 26 Aug 11 20:33
any reason why so you think isnt quoted by ladbrokes for the race,prominent with plenty other bookmakers....
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 26 Aug 11 20:43
It's all a bit confusing at the moment. Sit on yer hands till things calm down - that's my advice.
By:
Masterminded
When: 26 Aug 11 20:54
very odd market at the moment.
By:
InTheBath
When: 26 Aug 11 21:01
Mr Sykes - So You Think seems to be being aimed at the Cox Plate in Australia (http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/australia-so-you-think-given-cox-plate-entry-by-obrien/893883/) and has now seemingly been given the quarantine go-ahead by the Australian authorities.  Therefore, it seems as if there is a good chance that he will not run in the Arc - and Ladbrokes traditionally have a hot-line to Coolmore/Ballydoyle and it might seem as if they are 'in the know' on this one.  Ladbrokes have not had SYT in their list for about two months.
However, with Pour Moi (same ownership as So You Think) currently a drifter in the Arc ante-post market, perhaps SYT might become the Ballydoyle Arc runner - Who knows?!
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 26 Aug 11 21:37
Too complicated for me to get my head around! I'll keep my hands on my seat....
By:
mr_sykes
When: 26 Aug 11 21:41
you'd imagine all will be revealed in the morning
By:
coney
When: 27 Aug 11 09:57
so anyone have ideas yet on the price ****y with PM?,

I have been backing it since the Derby- I'm officially worried.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 27 Aug 11 10:20
I sympathise coney. I haven't backed it, but I hate the uncertainty.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 27 Aug 11 15:50
3.30 on Thursday the price went funny on the BF market. Saturday afternoon before they announce
the horse is out and then they say he was injured Friday morning.

I'm making a book on the race, so I have least reason to be upset, but I do think it's
shabby the way these things are done.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 28 Aug 11 14:04
cirrus de aigles doing sarafinas hopes no harm winning in deauville....
By:
The Headmaster
When: 28 Aug 11 15:10
Cirrus Love
By:
keynes
When: 28 Aug 11 15:17
cirrus is just the Famous Name of french racing--just picks up mickey mouse races
By:
InTheBath
When: 28 Aug 11 18:13
Despite having not included him for the past two months, Ladbrokes now have So You Think back in their ante-post list for the Arc - albeit they are going the largest price available at 6/1.  Should we read anything into this?
With their connections to the Coolmore battalions does this imply that the Arc is back on the agenda, or is it still only a possibility and the Australian race is still more likely - being longest in the current odds still implies some doubt about SYT's participation in the Arc.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 28 Aug 11 19:09
still a possibilty I guess we'll prob know day after leopardstown,sea moon also seems a quite possible runner thought i saw him last week at 12s with ladbrokes 10s now
By:
The Headmaster
When: 28 Aug 11 21:09
Just for the record, keynes, Famous Name isn't fit to lick Cirrus' plates Plain
By:
Anaglogs Daughter
When: 29 Aug 11 11:24
Aidan O'Brien's St Nicholas Abbey is set to have his next start in the Prix Foy at Longchamp on September 11.
Winner of the Coronation Cup at Epsom in June, the four-year-old was last seen finishing third in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot behind Nathaniel and Workforce.

The Longchamp race is a recognised trial for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, for which St Nicholas Abbey is a best-priced 20/1 chance following the retirement of ante-post favourite Pour Moi.

O'Brien's wife Anne-Marie tweeted: "We are looking at the Prix Foy in Longchamp on September 11 for St Nicholas Abbey's next start."

Mrs O'Brien also said that Irish 2000 Guineas winner Roderic O'Connor could join So You Think in the Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday, and that Misty For Me and Together could run in the Matron Stakes on the same card at the Dublin track.
By:
mr_sykes
When: 29 Aug 11 21:46
cant see SNA coming close in Arc but racing in the Foy should give owners idea of chances with other horses
By:
Sankara
When: 30 Aug 11 11:40
This looked a straight match between Pour Moi and Meandre until the former was withdrawn. It now looks a straight match between So You Think and Meandre. I'm on Meandre at big prices, but am forced to admit that So You Think looks a raging certainty.
By:
ForceMajeure
When: 30 Aug 11 12:17
I feel very good about taking the double figure odds now for SYT, i highly doubt he will go to Australia, but i note O'Brien mentioned the result of the Irish race on the weekend will count towards the decision.
By:
tinkler
When: 30 Aug 11 12:35
I like Blue bunting in this . Godolphin like to have a runner in the Arc and I cann't see that they have
any other viable contender. BB is a tough enigmatic character whose ability isn't that easy to assess but
3 grp 1's this year show she likes to win. SHe likes a bit of cut in the ground and takes her races well.
User Friendly had a similer profile . She'll get a very useful 3 y/o and filly weight allowance .
She's a whopping 150/1 and hopefully christmas will come early.
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Aug 11 14:02
She has had a long and tough season though Tinkler. Will be several fresh horses in the race who had the summer off waiting for this (Sarafina,WF,Nathaniel,Meandre). That said, you have 150/1, which probably suggests she wont be running ?
By:
InTheBath
When: 30 Aug 11 14:13
Tinkler - Do Godolphin have any other options?  Is there a suitable French-trained horse owned by Godolphin? - I cannot think of one.  They certainly do not seem to have anything else in Britain which seems suitable for the Arc.
You may have a point about BB.
By:
Masterminded
When: 30 Aug 11 14:57
Not sure BB or Meandre are good enough tbh. WF, Sarafina or So You Think the likely winners. Outsiders? Golden Lilac or Galikova? Maybe even the **** horse.
By:
Masterminded
When: 30 Aug 11 14:57
FFS BETFAIR JAPANESE HORSE
By:
ForceMajeure
When: 30 Aug 11 16:10
LOL, yes the Japanese horses are fantastic value actually, very underrated for the ARC IMO, they have sent 4 horses if i'm not mistaken.
By:
InTheBath
When: 30 Aug 11 16:28
Japanese runners now down to a maximum of 3 - Victoire Pisa out.

http://japanracing.jp/_news2011/110819.html

Agree with you, FM.  There is a victory for a Japanese horse in the not too distant future, I believe.  There is a clear intention by some top Japanese owners and trainers that the Arc is regarded as a race to be targetted and therefore there is bound to be one that hits the mark in the next five years.
I just hope when it happens that it is a juicy 33/1 chance and not the favourite like Deep Impact was in 2006  (and this was backed blindly by Japanese punters on the Pari Mutuel into odds-on, if I am not mistaken).
I will be having an e/w stake on every Japanese runner for the next few years!
By:
ForceMajeure
When: 30 Aug 11 17:04
I hit the quinnela when the Japanese won the Melbourne Cup, no one saw it coming, it was a massive coup for them at the time, i totally agree, they could do this with the same hit and run ploy in this years ARC.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 30 Aug 11 19:30
Nakayama Fest is ridiculous value. Second last year and definitely coming for another crack. The 75 or whatever i have taken on here was an insult to a decent horse.
By:
Beryl
When: 30 Aug 11 20:20
I think Blue Bunting's participation in this could depend on French Navy's performance in the Niel.

Should he win or go close then I think he could represent Godolphin in this. However, if he blew out then it could leave them with two choices; no runner or Blue Bunting.

As I mentioned in the Leger thread, I like French Navy. He was a very good two year old who won a group 3 at the course, won easily on his comeback. the trainer mentioned that they had very high hopes for him before his comeback and Fallon, who was on board him last time was very complimentary about his ability and reckoned he would come on a ton for his comeback.

French Navy is 100+ on here for the Arc, I've couldn't resist taking some.
By:
Howellsy
When: 31 Aug 11 11:41
Blue Bunting is a grinder, not a quickener, and the latter sort usually wins the arc.
By:
trev w
When: 31 Aug 11 16:35
sticking with the 3 yr olds here...nath @  33s e/w & 40/1 kg/arc dbl.

meandre @ avg 34s & baraan @ 25s...

anyone read owt about baraan lately ?  still think he offers decent e/w value..if they can sort out his stalls problems....massive run,when he was 3rd..after losing 15l @ the start.

really like  meandre's turn of foot lto..i guess the niel will tell us plenty
By:
mr_sykes
When: 31 Aug 11 18:59
was just having a look at Rail Link's runs leading up to Arc,he ran in the GPdP before the Niel,if Meandre wins the Niel after going the same route,he would be right up there.agree with his turn of foot,appeared to win that race with the minimum of fuss
By:
OLD DON SHANKS
When: 02 Sep 11 19:52
Liking Meandre's win in the GPdP in a very similar time to Rail Links win I will be backing him prior to the Neil.
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