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thehoffisback
23 Aug 11 17:07
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Date Joined: 22 Jun 09
| Topic/replies: 1,040 | Blogger: thehoffisback's blog
just been doing some research on the race, looking through the runners.  on the rp website though it seems there have been no declarations on the main runners that i'm looking at. I like the look of so you think as well as nathaniel.  obviously workforce is the bollocks and he can come back to form fresh.
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Report SoYouThink October 1, 2011 6:15 PM BST
As stated throughout the thread, I am all over So You Think. Some people who might not want to see him win though. Some overboard comments.

Pedrobob - Little chance over 12f at Longchamp if they go a decent gallop, stamina will be well exposed as it was at Ascot and very nearly at Leopardstown.

Rowley Mile - if syt wins the arc, i'll genuinely stop posting on here

Sintonian - just does not look like an Arc contender

Silvergreaser - This horse has no chance in the ARC

Platini - The only thing I'm confident of is SYT won't be winning.

Frankelstein - CANNOT SEE HIM WINNING THE ARC IN A MONTH OF SUNDAYS.

A_T - I see him as a Giant's Causeway type - tough, reliable and yes top class but not going to win a 12f Arc he won't have the speed at the end of the race.

Jair1970 - Just can't believe that So You Think can win having never run over 12f

Mr Mischief - sreiously considering a proper place lay of SYT

The Gotchee - If s SYT wins the Arc I will give up backing horses.

Few people with exaggerated comments, Laugh but we'll see who's made to eat their words tomorrow!

Mu suggestion to the above is to withdraw their comments before it's too late.

Best of Luck to all getting involved.
Report G1_Jockey_4 October 1, 2011 6:49 PM BST
only two form lines you need to be concerned with.


midday and dandino

its easy to work out which horses are way over priced and which ones are ridiculously short.
Report turnip turns October 1, 2011 6:52 PM BST
Figgis     01 Oct 11 17:59 
Apart from the times pointing to good ground, I also think that's how it looks visually. Yes, there is some turf kicking up but it just looks to be just the top surface. The hooves aren't sinking well into the ground, nothing appears to be floundering and the runners are finishing close up, not strung out like chasers. In other words this is nothing like York in August. I don't necessarily agree with altering safe good to firm but if the ground remains similar to today I don't think any horse will have a valid excuse.

Totally agree after watching the racing today,and it appears Mr Dettori does too,this was a tweet earlier,

gcunning12 Graham Cunningham
Frankie says the ground is "good, English good." Whatever that means.
Report mr_sykes October 1, 2011 6:54 PM BST
could be faster come the ARC if its still sunny and they dont water tonight
Report turnip turns October 1, 2011 6:56 PM BST
Agree mr sykes,but will they refrain from doing soPlain
Report mr_sykes October 1, 2011 7:01 PM BST
have no idea with the watering situation but if they dont that sun will dry it well out and it will be at least good or better
Report turnip turns October 1, 2011 7:03 PM BST
Hopefully you are right,for me its Snowy fairy and Workforce,good luck allCool
Report turnip turns October 1, 2011 7:08 PM BST
Just been looking at Snow Fairy's stats,and since the start of her 3yo campaign she is unbeaten over 1m4f with 10 or more runners,long held the view that big fields suit and thats backed that up,might go in again tomozCool
Report elisjohn October 1, 2011 7:28 PM BST
dont care who wins as long its not coolmore
Report jair1970 October 1, 2011 10:20 PM BST
Hey SoYouThink add Nick Mordin to the naysayers list

Reckons Longchamp won't suit the horse at all.
Report Tavaris Jackson October 2, 2011 1:08 AM BST
dont care as long as elisjohn doesn't win
Report sintonian October 2, 2011 8:58 AM BST
very nice of you to keep notes on us all SYT Blush

If he wins I couldn't give a rats ar5se. It is one opinion on one horse and I dont want to back him for the race. Simple.

You can also add the deeply biased Dave Duggan to the naysayers list who surprisingly doesnt fancy him either.

fyi .. more money has been matched on SYT in the ante-post market and day of race market than any other horse so clearly he is well fancied for you. good luck and may the best horse win.
Report sintonian October 2, 2011 9:03 AM BST
anyone no what segal has selected today for the race ?
Report Stake & Chips October 2, 2011 9:09 AM BST
Hiruno DÁmour
Report sintonian October 2, 2011 9:12 AM BST
cheers stakey.

PP are a standout 11/2 about SYT right now fyi ...
Report Stake & Chips October 2, 2011 9:21 AM BST
The race looks wide open to me, though I would probably be in the French camp, rather than the Irish / UK challenge...
Report turnip turns October 2, 2011 10:48 AM BST
racing_post Racing Post
Longchamp ground officially good. Clerk of the course reports NO watering took place last night but there was a heavy dew. Max 29C expected.
Report Platini October 2, 2011 11:23 AM BST
SYT, a little touchy about your horse?

Look, there will be no excuses for him today. The ground is in his favour now, and the field has been weakened with the withdrawal of heavyweight contenders.

But he still won't be winning. I am prepared to eat huge humble pie if he proves me wrong, but it's not gonna happen Happy
Report zilzal1 October 2, 2011 11:40 AM BST
Great news about no watering, leave it as late as you can FrankieLove or Meandre
Report WorkOnIt October 2, 2011 11:42 AM BST
You won't go far wrong in this race if you back the best French 3yo colt.

Reliable Man & Meandre for me.

Good luck all.
Report turnip turns October 2, 2011 12:29 PM BST
racing_post Racing Post
Kieren Fallon: "I thought it was good ground. It will be good fast ground by the Arc." Lemaire also describes ground as good.
Report magic carpet October 2, 2011 12:43 PM BST
Although the pools for the arc will swell dramatically in the build up to the big race So You Think is 13-1 on the pmu at this moment and 15-2 coupled with Treasure Beach and SNA.
Report turnip turns October 2, 2011 12:57 PM BST
Ground getting faster by the minute imo,sole powers run proves thatCool
Report Figgis October 2, 2011 1:03 PM BST
Agreed, definitely good to firm there, although the 5f course can ride a bit quicker.
Report unclepuncle October 2, 2011 1:13 PM BST
Hoping Snow Fairy or Silver Pond win but my lays are:

Lay Masked Marvel for a place
Lay Danedream for a place
Report turnip turns October 2, 2011 1:13 PM BST
true figgis,but good news for Snow FairyCool
Report EastLower Gooner October 2, 2011 1:27 PM BST
Wide Draws look a postive now...faster ground in the middle of the track. the inside is dead.
Report unclepuncle October 2, 2011 1:29 PM BST
Maybe one of the jockeys will have the balls to come right to the stands side Shocked
Report Figgis October 2, 2011 2:01 PM BST
Not as fast on the rest of the track, just the quick side of good I'd say.
Report RMB © October 2, 2011 2:07 PM BST
How does one bet into the PMU please?
Report mr_sykes October 2, 2011 2:13 PM BST
just ask your bookmaker for french odds or PMU
Report RMB © October 2, 2011 2:24 PM BST
Cheers. Ladbrokes online has a PMU section. Seems the easiest place to do it.

Just wondering when is the latest time you can get on. Don't want to miss a bet but don't want to place a bet 10 before the off and see it come in 3 points or something!

GLA
Report RMB © October 2, 2011 2:43 PM BST
Anyone know the max bet on the PMU? I tried a bet but was refused. Ladbrokes said the stake was too large, tried £2.5k and £1k.

Any help would be appreciated. Surely it's outsourced through the PMU so the fact I'm restricted with Ladbrokes makes no difference?
Report zilzal1 October 2, 2011 3:02 PM BST
Lets hope its a clean race, best of luck all
Report jair1970 October 2, 2011 3:19 PM BST
OH MY GOD Laugh
Report Mr Mischief October 2, 2011 3:19 PM BST
Bravo Danedream backers
Report RozelKid October 2, 2011 3:20 PM BST
well i did warn everyone,  boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom
Report Mr Mischief October 2, 2011 3:21 PM BST
1st Danedream
2nd Shareta
3rd Snow Fairy
[:x]
Report magic carpet October 2, 2011 3:21 PM BST
A massive well done to rozelkid and those who backed Danedream
Report EastLower Gooner October 2, 2011 3:21 PM BST
Destroyed them.
Report Platini October 2, 2011 3:22 PM BST
SYT win and place lays landed.

Never in it Cool
Report G1_Jockey_4 October 2, 2011 3:23 PM BST
was looking good half way
what a victory!!!!!
Report unclepuncle October 2, 2011 3:24 PM BST
Well done to danedream backers.

Did my money on the place lay but really what a farce of a race.
Report Platini October 2, 2011 3:24 PM BST
great shout on Danedream, wd backers Grin
Report Figgis October 2, 2011 3:26 PM BST
Impressive winner, wd those who backed her. From a personal point of view it's a pity Moore didn't remain sidelined.
Report zilzal1 October 2, 2011 3:26 PM BST
WD Backers, looked a good time as well, can complain about Snow Fairys run
Report A_T October 2, 2011 3:27 PM BST
Would have won even further on easier ground
Report jair1970 October 2, 2011 3:28 PM BST
Still think this year could be a 'Marienbard' though...

I guess that counts!
Report zilzal1 October 2, 2011 3:30 PM BST
Cant complain, sorry
Report RMB © October 2, 2011 3:30 PM BST
Wrong A_T. This is her ground, undoubtedly.
Report RozelKid October 2, 2011 3:30 PM BST
Get innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn, faster than peintre celebre !!!!
Report RozelKid October 2, 2011 3:31 PM BST
all those rampers stating she wanted soft ground, the couch on the racing post...what an absolute arse
Report G1_Jockey_4 October 2, 2011 3:31 PM BST
nah
it was clear that danedream had improved since the last run in france.
the form line through dandino put her in ahead of certain horses up the front of the market.
Report G1_Jockey_4 October 2, 2011 3:32 PM BST
she may have won further on soft ground but then she would have had to face nathaniel so maybe she wouldnt have won by further
Report magic carpet October 2, 2011 3:44 PM BST
Awesome performance,visually the most impressive winner of the arc i've ever seen how did i underestimate her?
Report kincsem October 2, 2011 3:45 PM BST
Good ground, my ar5e Mischief
Report Figgis October 2, 2011 3:51 PM BST
I make that the best perfomance on the clock by a middle distance 3yo, male or female, all season. Some of the older horses ran below par but they would've had no chance of giving that weight to her anyway. Some of the comments in the media about the time are a bit silly though, the ground was drying out rapidly through the afternoon, as evidenced by Dream Ahead's time.
Report sintonian October 2, 2011 3:54 PM BST
Sarafina was keen going to post and in the early stages of the race which didn't help her cause, but that said, it was disappointing she could pick up more in the final stretch down the outside.

SYT ran a cracker really as did Snow Fairy who were drawn 11 and 14.

wd Plat.
Report sintonian October 2, 2011 3:55 PM BST
* couldn't.

Time for Spurs vs Arsenal. Then Barca later on, laters all.
Report unclepuncle October 2, 2011 3:58 PM BST
Clearly the form - both on the clock and visually - a 5 length+ beating of Snow Fairy, See You Then, Sarafina etc makes it a terrific performance - but thats the problem.  I can't believe for 1 mimnute she is really that good. The fancied horses all ignored the pacemakers (bit like in the Jean-Luc Lagadere) only this time they had a horse in front of them who was well placed and finishing strongly.

I'll be amazed if she can back that performance up - presumably she goes straight to the paddocks.
Report jair1970 October 2, 2011 4:01 PM BST
Look at her last two wins, unclepuncle.

She's done the same thing 3 times in a row now against progressively better fields
Report RozelKid October 2, 2011 4:04 PM BST
she is staying in training next season, it was part of the deal with the trainer and the prior owners who still retain a half share.


going right handed on the turf is obviously her thing.
Report unclepuncle October 2, 2011 4:06 PM BST
But her last two wins were in Germany on softer going against horses who quite frankly would struggle to be placed in a half decent group 3 in the UK.

This field was massively better than the ones she had been running against in her last two runs - it's like a football tema beating Wigan and Bolton 3-0 but then taking on Barcelona - don't get me wrong she is good, but on that performnce she is arguably the best horse for 20 years - I really can't have that she is better than Sea The Stars or Zarkava.
Report unclepuncle October 2, 2011 4:09 PM BST
Hopefully if she stays in training we can find out if it was a fluke or not.
Report zilzal1 October 2, 2011 4:11 PM BST
Point being is that it will be hard to replicate the conditions of this race, how many group 1 all aged races do we have with 16 odd runners and a really true pace??
Report tinkler October 2, 2011 4:13 PM BST
When a seemingly competitive race is won so easily by an outsider there is usually strange circumstances.
I think a combination of a few factors led to it. Firstly the weather has been abnormally warm which fillies
tend to thrive on ,the ground was probably the fastest it's ever been for an Arc and Danedream with his flat
action bounced off it. She had the perfect trip and was well drawn plus the big weight allowance probably
helped her a lot. SYT didn't look in great cond beforehand and was disappointing, workforce looked light
pre-race and looks like he's had enough, Sarafina looked in great condition and doesn't seem to quite stay
a fast run 1 1/2m plus was overrated, snow fairy looked well pre-race and ran her race. Shareta coming 2nd
running on the rail suggests there was a bias and that the weight allowances made a big difference.
Under todays conditions Danedream was a clear winner but I doubt she's as good as this race made her look.
Report RozelKid October 2, 2011 4:19 PM BST
Uncle, her last 2 runs before the Arc were not run on soft,  the trainer has said it time and time again.

when it win in july it was very fast ground , Schiergen has said it so many times.

Tinker, you are wrong . All you had to do was Just ask yourself the  question 2 weeks before the race...Which Group 1 winner has won their races in the lead up as comfortably as Danedream.

The simple answer was NONE

Its a simple case here that the French trials were blown out of proportion

Shes the real Deal!
Report jair1970 October 2, 2011 4:24 PM BST
I'm with Rozel here and will happily admit bias.

But anytime there's a 'surprise' winner people and especially the media try and work out why and try to denigrate the performance.

She's won 3 races in a row by blasting clear in the final 2 furlongs.
She may well have been favoured by her draw and the weight, but she can only take advantage of that favour if she has the class.

Good horses win Arcs.

Exceptional horses win them by 5 lengths.
Report Figgis October 2, 2011 4:30 PM BST
The truth is simply that most of us underrated her German form. I freely admit that I have no real handle on German form and most of the time I just hope it's worse than ours, as it usually is. A bit too much has been made of the fast time, which is as much a product of the fast ground as it is the ability of the horse. However, I'd still rate it up there with the best 3yo middle distance filly performances, which are a few pounds below the best colts.
Report PeteTheBloke October 2, 2011 4:30 PM BST
workforce looked light pre-race and looks like he's had enough

Interesting comment. WF prob won't race again, do you think? He'll probably get a Timeform squiggle
after this... or am I being over-dramatic?

Masked Marvel was last. I take no pleasure in that, but Headmaster and I both remarked that he was
far too short a price, and that was before he was supplemented.

Treasure Beach was in a terrible sweat before the race, and then they seemed to run him as a pacemaker.
I wonder if they really felt that SYT was able to stay 12f at a hot pace. He seemed to stay on well.
In which case Danedream looks special. Shareta seems to have had some ups and downs, but her ups seem
to be good performances.
Report magic carpet October 2, 2011 4:32 PM BST
The thing that gets me is that if any of the percieved leading contenders for the race judged by their position in the pre race market had put up a performance as devastating as Danedream did today there would be people in some quarters shouting from the rooftops,but because she was a relatively unconsidered outsider those same people want to pour cold water on the performance.This was a quality field and she destroyed them simple as that
Report tinkler October 2, 2011 4:33 PM BST
If she ran in the race next year after a cold Autumn on G/s with 9-2 on her back drawn 12 she'd probably
come a one pace 7th.
You guys backed her today though and at 43/1 BF sp,it's an excellent pick by anyones standards.
Report G1_Jockey_4 October 2, 2011 4:38 PM BST
the only "strange circumstances" were that german horses are generally overlooked for such races because they so rarely do well in them.

the danger was there in black and white but for some reason it seems to have been dismissed


snow fairy....midday....sna.....dandino.


the owners were waiting to see who pulled out last week....she probably would have run anyways when she got bought but they were clearly worried by one horse.

the one who came close to frankel on soft ground on its debut.
Report PeteTheBloke October 2, 2011 4:43 PM BST
I agree with that magic carpet. She looks a really good filly. She'll stay in training
so I hope we see her running in the UK next year.
Report OnTheSnaff October 2, 2011 5:08 PM BST
SNA ran a cracker,just as i thought,and he made his odds look silly,traded at 4s 2 out,so all in all a very profitable day Cool
Report bazzar October 2, 2011 5:45 PM BST
Danedream "beat" Klammer as a 2yo but was disqualified.
Report zilzal1 October 2, 2011 5:46 PM BST
Klammers gone downhill since thenPlain
Report Stake & Chips October 2, 2011 5:48 PM BST
Laugh
Report bazzar October 2, 2011 5:51 PM BST
Yes he has Zilzal.Laugh
Report bazzar October 2, 2011 5:57 PM BST
Ive already posted somewhere on this forum that she beat Scalo rated at 120 in international classification by 5 lengths and next time out
Night Magic and Joshua Tree by 6 and 7 lengths, Joshua Tree won  the race that REDWOOD won in Canada the year before Redwood, good trial tackle, she is EXCELLENT.
Report apieceofcake October 2, 2011 6:06 PM BST
Can't believe what Coolmore did to Treasure Beach!!

An Irish Derby winner and they don't allow him to race on his merits. Imo that is the kind of thing that can ruin a good horse.Shocked
Report sintonian October 2, 2011 7:42 PM BST
magic carpet
Date Joined: 24 Mar 08
Add contact | Send message When: 02 Oct 11 16:32 Joined: Date Joined: 24 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 228 | Blogger: magic carpet's blog
The thing that gets me is that if any of the percieved leading contenders for the race judged by their position in the pre race market had put up a performance as devastating as Danedream did today there would be people in some quarters shouting from the rooftops,but because she was a relatively unconsidered outsider those same people want to pour cold water on the performance.This was a quality field and she destroyed them simple as that

I dont believe that at all tbh. She was excellent today and was underestimated by most pre-race (including me), but the draw combined with the quick ground has played a big part in deciding the outcome of this race imvho.
Report jair1970 October 2, 2011 7:55 PM BST
but the draw combined with the quick ground has played a big part in deciding the outcome of this race imvho.

The draw appears important every year, so that conversely, isn't really relevant and there have been enough Arcs run on soft ground.

So: every year the draw and ground are important.

The idea that because the win was unexpected, people will downgrade the form is sadly all too likely and I suspect directly linked to the amount of money journalists and commentators may have placed on alternative horses, the subsequent dashing of their financial dreams and their perceived lack of judgement amongst peers.

As such, Zarkava, who held the combined assets of being
1. Unbeaten
2. A likely and popular selection
3. Owned by a racing legend
4. A good earner throughout the year for any pundits and players who like an obvious pick

gets reams of column inches and debate over her class and success.

I suspect Danedream, who unfortunately for her reputation;

1.  Is from Germany (where?)
2.  Was unfancied in the market
3.  Was unconsidered by many pundits
4.  Has been beaten often
5.  Has probably contributed precisely nil to most punters wallets before today

...will not be exulted in such rarified terms as Zarkava.

So Zarkava or Danedream?

Who wins?  [;)]

All depends if you backed either of them doesn't it?
Report sintonian October 2, 2011 8:24 PM BST
christ Jair. Laugh

I take your points.

Im referring to the winning margin and performance as a whole. The ground and draw would have exaggeratted it a bit imo.

She is a deserved winner alright and her last two performances before today suggested she had improved out of all recognition. It must have been that damn hard ride from Starke in Italy  [;)]
Report sintonian October 2, 2011 8:32 PM BST
And I would actually back Danedream in a head to head with Zarkava. [:D]
Report jair1970 October 2, 2011 8:35 PM BST
Me too Laugh
Report RozelKid October 2, 2011 8:35 PM BST





So would i !!!!!!! booooooooooooom Laugh[:D][:D][:D][:D]
Report Can't Catch Me October 4, 2011 1:04 PM BST
Officially giving up the game then Cry

Well done backers. That'll teach me for writing off a German horse that costs £7.5k in a race of this quality, mainly for the fact it was German, and cheap!

Scintillating performance.

As a So you Think backer, I was disappointed he never really got a chnace to show what he could do, but struggle to see how anything would have beaten the winner.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 4, 2011 2:39 PM BST
Can't Catch Me 29 Sep 11 20:32
Dont mean to be rude, but I will give up the game if Danedream wins this.


That'll teach me for writing off a German horse

And don't forget where your horse is from.....

"Catch Me (GER)" [:x]
Report Can't Catch Me October 4, 2011 6:49 PM BST
Yes, that did enter my head. But making a Grade 1 winning hurdler, and an Arc winner is a big difference.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan October 5, 2011 4:46 PM BST
BofL in this years Hatton´s Grace [;)]
Report pedrobob October 6, 2011 9:58 AM BST
tinkler Joined: 02 Sep 10
Replies: 904 02 Oct 11 16:33   

If she ran in the race next year after a cold Autumn on G/s with 9-2 on her back drawn 12 she'd probably
come a one pace 7th.


tinkler, did you not see Danedream win her previous start in deeper than soft ground where she sprinted 6 lengths clear from a solid yardstick in Night Magic? Joshua Tree was beaten 13 lengths and an admittedly below par heavy ground German derby winner in Waldpark beaten 18 lengths?

Danedream looks pretty ground independent to me, hopefully she will stay in training at 4 and do it all over again.
Report tinkler October 6, 2011 2:00 PM BST
Joshua tree best form was on a decent surface, Waldpark was unwell and Night Magic would struggle to win a
listed race over here. I saw the race on You tube prior to the Arc and Danedream did nothing wrong and was an
easy winner but the oppostion looked to offer very little resistence. The race showed she was well in herself,
if you could see from it that she had improved enough to win an ARC since her one paced 5th to Testosterone
9 weeks previous then your a better judge than me.
Report bazzar October 6, 2011 2:30 PM BST
Im a better judge than you!!!!!LaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report MWDS October 7, 2011 9:45 AM BST
Every year the Arc is run on ground that will suit some horses, but not others.

Every year some horses are drawn more favourably than others.

How often does the course record get broken AND the winner triumph by 5 lengths (only 3 horses have won further and one of those was in the mud, which really is extreme form)?

I'm astounded that anyone can crab this.  Danedream may not be pegasus, but she just slaughtered a field that beforehand was considered one of the strongest assembled for some years, notwithstanding any specific ground/draw doubts for other horses.  In that field, on that day, the best horse won.
Report solvingthepuzzle October 7, 2011 10:22 AM BST
Nail on the head MWDS.
Report coolhand October 7, 2011 4:59 PM BST
I had a great weekend, the crowd for a brief moment after the Arc were struck dumb it seemed, completely taken aback by the demolition job Danedream did, with everyone flicking through the paper or race card to see who had won, i dont think there were many winners, but she was welcomed back with applause and cheers.

It was my first Arc and cant wait to go back next year, 4 euros on Saturday, 8euros on Sunday for 7(?) Group races, incredible. 

Congrats to any Danedream backers.
Report RozelKid October 7, 2011 11:00 PM BST
[;)]
Report zilzal1 October 7, 2011 11:34 PM BST
The Headmaster must still be drunkLaugh
Report kincsem October 8, 2011 1:02 AM BST
One of the French trainers said pre-race that Longchamp has clay soil.  Clay soils get very hard when dry (cracks appear) , and very sticky when wet.  I know as my garden is clay and I have broken a fork prong on it when dry.  It can be solid for up to a foot deep.  When wet it sticks to the wellies in big clumps and could even pull a boot off.

When the previous record holder Peintre Celebre (by the miler Nureyev) won, also by 5 lengths, my guess is the ground was super fast.  He was also drawn in stall 2.  The only wide draw winners in the last twenty years (four from 10+ stall) were slow time Arcs.
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