Horse Antepost
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The Arc
The Arc
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The size of the field and the pace of the race will probably have a significant impact on the result.
A 20 runner field will favour Workforce who will benefit from a decent pace and has the size to hold his own in a crowded big field.Interesting to note he's never been beaten when racing in double figure fields. Of all the horses in the field Workforce would derive most benefit from a large field. A big field would be against Sarafina. If they don't go that quick early she's going to have big problems getting through a lot of horses. A small field would benefit this hold up horse more than anything else in the field. She'll have a lot less ground to make up at the back of 10 runners than she would of 20. I doubt SYT and Nathaniel will be too affected by field size. Though SYT being so big may prefer more space. The Japanese horses are used to running in big fields. |
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Weell Sarafina squeezed bravely through a small gap in her trial. Was that by accident, or design ?
To be honest, there is no way of knowing who will be best suited by a big field. You still need luck in-running no matter which horse you have backed. If Sarafina is drawn low she can, presumably, sit off the pace at the front of the leading pack behind the pacemakers, if she is drawn high she can drop in behind and attempt to mow them down in the straight. Her turn of foot is more or less instant, which should be a big help in a race like this you would think. That said, the likes of Workforce and Reliable Man are no slouchs. |
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"He's never even run over 12f!" ( jair1970, about So You Think, WTF?)
"The reason SYT has never run over 12f is because" (forum member SYT....WTF?) ...................NO COMMENT.[:p] |
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Anyone Workforce fans on here ?
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is snow fairy definetly going for arc or is the champion in the reckoning
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WORKFORCE continued his preparation for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Sunday week with a racecourse gallop at Sandown on Tuesday.
Last year's Arc and Derby winner worked over nine furlongs with stablemates Dux Scholar and Confront. Confront led the trio before Workforce was pushed to lead three furlongs out, going on to finish narrowly ahead of Dux Scholar. Ryan Moore took the ride on Workforce, despite still not being entirely recovered from the arm injury that has kept him off the racecourse since Glorious Goodwood. Trainer Sir Michael Stoute said: "It was a good piece of work and with Dux Scholar there hopefully it will bring him on a little bit more.It was a good, strong piece of work on lovely ground. He's moving well and seems on good shape. "Dux kept him busy, kept him honest and is a little fitter than him so it was a good test. " Explaining his decision not to race Workforce between July's King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Arc, Stoute said: "I felt we'd do the same as we did last year. You wouldn't want to be giving him a hard race in a trial - he's better coming here." Workforce finished second in the King George, beaten over two lengths by Nathaniel, who also heads to Longchamp for the Arc. |
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I'm on Workforce for the arc, thrives in larger field sizes ... I don't think its just coincidence that his record is 0/4 in races with less than 7 runners but 4/4 in races with more than 7 runners.
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I liked Workforce muchly, but I've started having doubts again after reviewing the
Ascot race LTO. I began wondering if he's a dog (at worst) or bloody-minded at least. They said he had a cut, but in the excitement of a race he shouldn't even notice a cut. I'm still for him more than agin him, if only because he's a proven Arc horse and there's a fair chance that the going will be softer than good. It would be a helluva feat if he did win. |
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I couldn't back Workforce for the following reasons. He'll be facing 2 rivals who have already decisively beaten him this season and he looked in peak shape going into both races.
At sandown SYT beat him well and didn't look like 1 1/2m would make a difference. At Ascot Workforce came to nathaniel to go past him but appeared to be intimited by nathaniel. As nathaniel moved to his left Workforce kept moving further to his left as though he didn't like to be anywhere near Nathaniel. This gives nathaniel a class edge on him and if the Arc was at Ascot or a track with a stiff finish Workforce would be very unlikely to beat Nathaniel. On a flatter track he has a chance. Workforce has probably improved this year but only in line with WFA. He was given a great ride in last years race were Moore bagged the rail and it opened up for him up the home straight. If moore rides him on sunday week that will enhance his chance but either way I won't be backing him. |
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Ryan Moore will be riding. He has already been riding work.
When SYT beat him at Sandown it was Good to Firm. Could make a difference back on GS ?? Just speculating. |
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Realise there's 12 days to go so he's not going to be absolutely wired but was anyone else a little underwhelmed by the report on that workout? Had to be pushed into the lead and sounded like Dux was giving him plenty to think about?
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But Dux was "fitter"
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But there's been a move on him here - into 15/2 after being easy to bet a 17/2 for
more than a week. |
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It's possible that although Workforce has physically strengthed up this year ,mentally he's get less keen
on racing and wants the easy life. |
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The way he ran at Ascot certainly looked temperamental. I know he could still win in spite of that,
but don't we all prefer to bet genuine types that keep on pushing till the line? |
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Maybe he has his mind on a new career
 Seriously though, I think he will go well in the Arc, albeit I think he will find one or two too good for him. |
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You can totally forget the way he ran at Ascot as a pointer to the way Workforce is going to run at Longchamp on Sunday week, he obviously doesn't act at Ascot as his sire progeny's record at the track indicates ... only 1 win from 85 attempts at class 1 and 2
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Bit of a move for Snow Fairy in the last hour or so. Prices taken from 38.0 down to under 30.0
Not big money, I suppose, but you don't need so much on if the price is nice. |
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Dux Scholar been in good form this season and would have been an ideal work partner I would have thought. Hard to read too much into stuff like that imo. I got the impression Stoutey had him exactly where he wants him.
Probably worth pointing out that before the season started Stoutey and Grimthorpe said all roads lead back to Longchamp for Workforce. They have been clear from day 1 that the Arc will be his main aim this season. |
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You're right sint, no one but Stoute knows whether WF had a stone of lead in his saddle
so it's silly to speculate about the significance of the gallop. One thing is certain: WF is being prepared for this race and will run unless something very untoward occurs. |
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SYT needs more frequent runs to be at his best. In aus he went cox plate (23rd october, 10f), Makinnon stakes (30 october, 10f), melbourne cup (2nd november, 16f).
But I think he's still a chance. Nathaniel is overrated, the fillies will always be up against it and winning back to back isn't exactly something you see often, re workforce. With all of that said though, wf is still an unseen talent as a 4 year old imo. Nearly matched it with SYT over 10f then bombed out at ascot (like he did last year). SYT or workforce wins this unless the going is awful, then SYT probably has no chance. |
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From the limited evidence available on RPTV it appears that Dux Scholar could have taken Workforce any time he liked
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Which part of Nathaniel's form makes him overrated?
The only horse to really give Frankel a race? A 9 length maiden winner? A head 2nd to a Derby runner up/Irish Derby winner? A runaway Royal Ascot winner? A convincing King George winner? I'm not saying he will win but can you please tell us why he doesn't deserve to be among the favourites for the race? |
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People getting to carried away with Nath's king george win,in a race this strong,place lay all day long for me
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WF didn't bomb out at Ascot he handled the track fine but would not go past Nathaniel. If nathaniel wasn't in that race he would probably have won by 4 lengths plus and kept a lot straighter.
The problem with Nathaniel is that his best form is with cut in the ground and an uphill finish. His second at chester is nowhere near the level of his KG win. If treasure Beach was in this race he'd be 16/1 minimum . He'll be facing a flat track at longchamp and if it was quick I very much doubt he'd have enough pace. It's highly likely he'll face good to soft or softer though. He's the most unexposed horse in the field and could have improved since Ascot as he's only 3, coupled with a tremendous attitude he'd be my pick on soft ground though 5/1 is no great price. On G/s or better i'm going with SYT. |
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You can get 8/1 on Nathaniel on here right now..
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WORKFORCE looked like a Pig & agree with HM that Dux's jockey was trying very hard not to go past WF
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With Pour Moi out, it looks wide open this year. The only thing I'm confident of is SYT won't be winning.
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ForceMajeure
You might be plenty knowledgable about Aussie racing and So You Think but if you think that Ballydoyle have been plotting this up all year you've very wrong. He goes cos Pour Moi doesn't. |
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How will SYT's season stack up in history if it wins the ARC and then the BC Classic?
How many have done this? |
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Can't see where anyone - Coolmore included - could have got the idea that Pour Moi was some sort of certainty for The Arc on the basis of a narrow win in an average Derby
 He would have had a chance but on form as likely to finish 7th as 1stSo You Think has superior form and might well have run in it anyway. The fact they have only recently confirmed him a likely runner is not significant IMO , they only committed to The Eclipse about a week before the race. And it's not like it is unheard of for them to run 2 strongly fancied horsee in the same Group 1 [;)] |
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All the long range (7-14 day) weather forecasts for Paris that I can find show it being lovely and dry all the time so that must be great news for So You Think and Ouija Board.
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^ Snow Fairy - not Ouija Board (she'd be a certainty
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^ Snow Fairy - not Ouija Board (she'd be a certainty
) |
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(Wigmore Hall won the $512,172 Northern Dancer Turf Stakes by a neck on Sunday at Woodbine. The four-year-old High Chaparral (Ire) colt, ridden by Jamie Spencer for trainer Michael Bell, bounced back from a fourth-place finish in the Arlington Million Stakes (G1) on August 13.)
Don't suppose this does SYT's chances any harm? 18th start 1st attempt at 12f. Shield raised! |
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Incidentally if SYT should run in the Arc it will also be his 18th start & 1st attempt at 12f.
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I'd expect SYT to improve over 1 1/2m at Longchamp and see it as an enhancement to his form rather than a negative. If it was at Ascot it could stretch his stamina , but not at longchamp.
Can only see the price contracting and am betting him now at 5/1 , if it comes up very soft then thats just the way it is. |
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SYT's sire High Chaparral attempted 12f 6 times & won 4 of them. Too many people concerned that he hasn't run at the trip in my opinion. Hedge your bets on Danedream Tinkler as if it get's heavy & it runs think it'll be hard to beat. Having said that it's mentioned on here somewhere that Paris weather for next 2 weeks set fair, all aboard the SYT runaway train.
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Are there any horses in the race that wont like Good ground though Uncle ?
If it was Soft it just be an inconveniance to others rather than a preference. |
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I'd say good or quicker is a negative for a few, sint, yep. Workforce, Reliable Man, Galikova definitely. Nathaniel would prefer some juice and it would rule out Vadamar too.
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