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The Arc
The Arc
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So You Think gets BC Turf trip, but could he be Classic-bound?
Posted on September 3, 2011 by Jennie Rees So You Think earned a free trip to the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs by taking Saturday’s Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown. In his victory over the filly Snow Fairy after a protracted stretch drive, So You Think gets an automatic spot in the Turf as part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge series’ "Win and You’re In." In this case, So You Think would get his $90,000 in entry fees paid, along with a $20,000 travel stipend as a foreign-based horse. (It’s $10,000 for U.S. horses.) The interesting thing is that So You Think, a 1 1/4-mile specialist, is getting enough play in the Wynn Las Vegas’ Breeders’ Cup future wager that he’s the 10-1 co-favorite for the Classic with Tizway, winner of the Metropolitan Mile and Whitney Handicap. Should trainer Aidan O’Brien and owner John Magnier opt for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, they’d still get $90,000 in credit toward entry fees but would have to come up with another $60,000 to make up the difference. (They’d also still get the travel stipend.) Magnier and his Coolmore associates often put one of their star grass horses in the Classic on dirt, a race they have yet to win. So You Think is a 5-year-old New Zealand-bred who was Australia’s 3-year-old champion before being turned over to O’Brien this year. This is his third Group 1 victory this season, following the Eclipse and Tattersalls Gold Cup. His only defeat in five starts this year in Europe was by a neck in Ascot’s Prince of Wales. So You Think is a son of the Coolmore stallion High Chaparral, a two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, including once in the only dead heat in Breeders’ Cup history. |
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Apologies as slightly off topic.
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Hmmm...a run in the QEII could be a way to sharpen him up speedwise for the Classic.
A tactic I believed they used with Cape Blanco in the Queen Anne before they shipped stateside for those paceless turf races. |
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I was well impressed with Danedream on both her last two starts and seriously hope she turns up.
Gotta be worth running her, no one loses anything by losing in the Arc and at big prices she has to be on a shortlist IMO Looks wide open to me and as such the Japanese runners are pretty likeable too... |
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The season since July has been dominated by 3yo's so I am surprised to see that Timeform still has several 4yo+ at the top. Gosden seems confident that Nathaniel is better than Masked Marvel and his last 2 wins at Ascot have been by wide margins after going clear a long way out. He is by Galileo, he stays, and as an immature 2yo, he gave Frankel a race over a mile. Racing prominently could be the right tactic in a rough Arc with a lot of runners getting in the way of late finishers. I still think we might see a clean sweep for 3yo's with Nathaniel beating Reliable Man, Meandre and/or Galikova. The Arc conditions reduce the weight for age from 12 to 8lb allowance compared to the King George but the scale has always been there and 3 of the first 4 last year were 3yo's who we now know were not an exceptional bunch.
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Whoever is going to run in l'Arc, there's gotta be some value there today. The book
is at 115% and with 130 or more horses at 1000.0 it's dangerously close to over-broke for the poor old layers (inc. me!) Of course, one of the 999/1 shots could win.... |
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18 days to race.....still no update on SYT's partcipation.....but his price slowly edges out towwards double figures.
 It'll be a touch shameful if he misses the Arc for the Champion Stakes. I'd have preferred if he staye in Australia and went for a third Cox Plate than tackle a Champion Stakes. |
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I agree about the lack of news being poor form. I think every trainer should
keep an up-to-date website in this day and age. Maybe that's asking too much, but teh "betting public" deserve a bit more than they currently get. |
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utter disgrace no news from coolmore, are you telling me that they still havent a clue, why not say something alongthe lines of, were still not decided between champion and the arc but we wont be going for qe11,
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They used to run a horse named LISTEN , which was a mickey take of
AIDEN, but we are kept in the dark for the same reasons that Hermitage lodge was set up in the 1920s. |
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I agree Pete and Elis. I would normally be a staunch defender of Ballydoyle but my frustration over the lack of news is getting the better of me on this occasion. 18 days before the Arc - they must know now if he runs there next or not.
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ballydoyle are virtually totally stud value orientated. To enhance it's value it's going to have to
1. beat frankel at a mile- no chance of that so they won't do it 2. win the arc- won't want to run soft ground so will wait to see advanced ground forecasts. 3. win the Breeders cup classic- If they are going down this route I think they might use the Champion stakes as a prep race. |
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Of course he may get beat in one of them which would decrease his stud value ,so they could elect to run
in the Champion stakes only(the easy option), or say he's gone slighlty lame and pack him off to stud. |
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or say he's gone slighlty lame and pack him off to stud
One would like to think that they would only say he was lame if he was lame. ? Or am I being too naive now? |
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I see a few people are kicking-off this morning after France Galop increased the Arc safety factor from 20 to 25. As far as I can tell, we are a long way from getting even 20 runners.
Barring injury: Definites Sarafina Nathaniel Workforce Reliable Man Galikova Hiruno D'Amour Nakayama Festa Probables Meandre Snow Fairy Possibles The Ballydoyles Danedream Testosterone French Navy (?) Silver Pond (?) Maybe Golden Lilac too, I suppose. Any others? |
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And the big question mark is over the Ballydoyles, isn't it? Say they ran SNA, SYT and Treasure Beach -
that would cause a stir. But they won't. It's funny to think the Grand National is capped at 40 runners. And gets them too. |
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Pete the National is a handicap. If you offer £500k for a flat handicap you will get 200 runners declared.
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Roger that sageform, but I was thinking more of the safety factor mentioned by The Headmaster.
I suppose if the Grand National started from stalls then we wouldn't have 40 starters, but the comparison is still striking. |
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Not surprised by Coolmore's lack of information. This is standard from them.
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bit of a head scratcher this year is the Arc, its geared up for a shock result i think.
I've probably done a silly thing in backing Danedream on the assumption that the connections will supplement the filly. Reliable Man 17 Ref: 15494904337 Bet matched:23:13 11-Jul-11 36 Ref: 14976016806 Bet matched:03:22 30-May-11 38 Ref: 14976016806 Bet matched:03:22 30-May-11 Meandre 100 Ref: 15494910139 Bet matched:23:14 11-Jul-11 Hiruno DAmour 410 Ref: 15195479067 Bet matched:07:27 17-Jun-11 420 Ref: 15195479067 Bet matched:07:27 17-Jun-11 backed 4 others that are 1000/1 now , but were a lot shorter in june Doh! |
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oh forget about Festa, love the Japs! lol
Nakayama Festa 50 Ref: 14688102340 Bet matched:01:15 08-May-11 50 Ref: 14688102340 Bet matched:01:15 08-May-11 55 Ref: 15667075592 Bet matched:03:22 26-Jul-11 55 Ref: 15667075592 Bet matched:03:22 26-Jul-11 65 Ref: 14784356358 Bet matched:12:50 15-May-11 65 Ref: 14784356358 Bet matched:12:50 15-May-11 85 Ref: 14886584594 Bet matched:00:13 23-May-11 90 Ref: 14886584594 Bet matched:00:13 23-May-11 |
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Would treasure beachs training point to his potential involvement?
I havent got any info btw...just wondering if the day they get him off his arse would indicate where hes going. Or does his price already indicate hes not going to longchamp? |
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SYT confirmed by Coolmore on target for Arc
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You beat me to it tweeted by annemarie 1 hr ago. Now it's interesting both as a spectacle & I'm on big at big prices ty Coolmore (never thought I'd say that!)
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wish I'd taken a bit more at 15/2 on here yesterday ah but hindsight's such a wonderful thing I guess Papoulias wouldn't have taken those artic loads of euros with hindsight?
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Same as solvingthepuzzle! I backed at 7/1 and 15/2 the other day.....wish I had more on at those prices now and some of the 8/1 too
 I was convinced they couldn't miss the Arc but the lack of confirmation left me doubting myself. I wonder now how this been the plan the whole time? It surely must? Also a lot of posters with polarising views on this horse in this race...so nice to know it'll be put the test. My view is that he is the winner. |
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Also blows the theory about Lad-brokes connection with Ballydoyle.
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You can still get 11/2 if you want to back him again. Plenty big enough if you really fancy him.
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Tbh, I am surprised they are running. Aidans record in the race combined with the running plans of his previous runners suggests to me he treats the race as an afterthought. I suspect Pour Moi being injured has changed the plans.imo.
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I don't think this is an afterthought although I accept in the case of past renewals, O'Brien's runners were well overcooked by the time of the Arc. I think the whole idea behind not having SYT fully wound up for the Prince of Wales' Stakes as well as the Tatts Gold Cup and the Irish Champion was so that he'd have enough left for a strong assault on an Autumn campaign. Pour Moi's injury may have altered Coolmore's hand in this year's race but I can't believe they bought SYT to win a couple of weak Irish Group Ones and an English Champion Stakes. I think we're yet to see the best of this horse up here but hopefully we'll get to see that in two and a half weeks!
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So what will they do if it is officially Soft ground iyo ?
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Well that changes things but I suspect unless it's really heavy, they'll take their chance.
Anyway no point talking in hypothesis - we won't know until closer the day. But the Arc ground is usually fair. |
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Yes it appears to be generally fair but last year it was Very Soft, officially, and the Autumn over there has started with plenty of rainfall.
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Barring injury:
Definites Sarafina Nathaniel Workforce Reliable Man Galikova Hiruno D'Amour Nakayama Festa So You Think Testosterone Probables Meandre Snow Fairy Possibles St Nicholas Abbey Treasure Beach Danedream French Navy Silver Pond Roderic O'Connor Golden Lilac Passion For Gold Wiener Walzer Casamento |
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Aidan O'Brien confirms So You Think Arc target
BY STUART RILEY AIDAN O'BRIEN has confirmed that former Australian superstar So You Think will have his next race in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on October 2. Ladbrokes reacted to the news by cutting the eight-time Group 1 winner to 5-1 (from 7) for Europe's richest race. He can also be backed at 6-4 for the Qipco Champion Stakes on October 15, which was also mentioned as a possible target after he beat Snow Fairy in the Irish Champion Stakes this month. However, speaking on coolmore.com, O'Brien said: "So You Think is in great form and all being well with him, the plan is to run in the Arc given reasonable ground conditions." O'Brien has won the Ar |
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http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/09/14/manual_141551.html&BID=465
Workforce prep coming along with racecourse gallop likely before l'Arc. ------------- Saturday at Newbury Dubai Duty Free Arc Trial (Group 3) Green Destiny Black Spirit Dangerous Midge Halicarnassus Passion For Gold Sri Putra Sea Of Heartbreak Al Kazeem |
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Great news SYT in. 1 negative though....His ol' man got beat in this race twice before winning back to back BC Turf's.
deja vu? |
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Makes things interesting but not convinced he is going to win
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So You Think runs cos they haven't got anything else with a chance.
No coincidence that news comes out after no runners in the Niel, St Nick failing at the weekend and Pour Moi retiring. If this was the plan all along, i'll eat my proverbial hat. They simply don't have any other horse that would be competitive and they have to run him because of this. Not for me though. |
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What do you think So You Think's original plan was then, Jair?
By the way, Aidan O'Brien in 16 years of working for Coolmore has only ever ran three horses in the Prix Niel. Soldier of Fortune (who won) and Song of Hiawatha in 2007, and King of Rome in 2008. Not a race he's really been too interested in. I'm also quite sure they had a fair idea about St. Nicholas Abbey after the Coronation Cup and King George, and did not need to run him in the Prix Foy to find out about his Arc credentials. Finally Pour Moi is trained by Fabre. O'Brien likes the Arc and is always lining up a couple to take part in the race. I don't think So You Think was trained so that he wouldn't have to race against Pour Moi. O'Brien also has Treasure Beach, Await The Dawn, St. Nicholas Abbey, Cape Blanco and Fame And Glory all with pretty decent form to suggest they could be competitive. Might not win but don't think any of them would disgrace themselves. |