You've pretty much defined the situation right here:

O'Brien also has Treasure Beach, Await The Dawn, St. Nicholas Abbey, Cape Blanco and Fame And Glory all with pretty decent form to suggest they could be competitive. Might not win but don't think any of them would disgrace themselves.

Earlier in the year he said that Fame and Glory would probably go for the race; pretty unlikely after bombing out last weekend.
Await the Dawn is not gonna be ready and is coming back from injury, St. Nicholas Abbey has come up short but why run him in the race last weekend if they're not hoping he'll step up? Cape Blanco and Treasure Beach have both come up short in France before.

The idea that Pour Moi being trained by Fabre having no bearing on O'Brien's plans is clearly bull$hit as reference to the 2006 Arc proves:

O'Brien runners? Nil.  Coolmore runners? 1: A certain Hurricane Run trained by er... Andre Fabre. 
I think you're confusing O'Brien the trainer with Coolmore the organisation there.  Their best chances run whether trained in Ireland or not.

And finally...

The last time O'Brien ran a horse in the Arc (pacemakers aside) that had not already shown top class form over 12f was when Acropolis put up a massive outlier of a performance at 100/1 in 2004, a year they struggled for good horses.

So You Think running is an afterthought created by necessity. He's never even run over 12f!

Pour Moi was their number one.

It stayed 3100 mts in the Melb Cup, why couldn't it stay 2400 mts?

It stayed 3100 mts in the Melb Cup, why couldn't it stay 2400 mts?

Not my point.
Trainers are creatures of habit.  If they had always planned to come here, O'Brien would have run him in one of the races St Nicholas Abbey ran in this year.  They didn't.

Jair1970,

I don't think they have achieved everything they wanted to achieve with SYT. The whole idea behind him not being maximised to run to his absolute best in the Tatts Gold Cup / POW / Irish Champion was so that the horse would have enough left over to do himself justice in the late season Group Ones. I also found it interesting that they skipped an easy Group One in the Juddmonte International when past seasons, horses with campaigns similiar to SYT, took it in. Though that may not be relevant - but as I say I found it interesting.

I agree that they've a bad record once it comes to Group Ones in October and November (particularly the foreign ones) but in the case of SYT, I think they've tried to correct that with how they have campaigned him.

I do not think their lateness in committing for the Arc is a reason to think that it's an afterthought. They are usually slow in announcing decisions to the public. For example, Epsom Derby, French Derby, Juddmonte International running plans were all announced very, very late this season. And they're just some. I wouldn't read anything into it.

And finally, I'll be amazed if the Arc is SYT's last start. Read this quote from Aidan O'Brien after the Irish Champion:

“I'm delighted. It had been a while since he ran and he hadn't been away from home. He's got very relaxed which is good but because he's so relaxed he may need a bit more racing closer together."

That is an indication that they plan to race him a bit in the Autumn.

You also have to take into account that Aidan was trying to keep his top horses apart.

Why is why SYT did not run in the Juddmonte. It looks quite obvious so you cant really infer it was because they wanted him for the ARC.

Has there ever been an Arc winner that has raced exclusively over 10f all season ? Or, at least, one trained outside of France ?

And I still find the notion that SYT wasn't 100% ready for the POW the biggest load of nonsense ever. Tactics is what got him beat that day. Not fitness. He had already raced twice beforehand.

Bago I seem to remember getting beaten over 10f in UK a couple of times then winning the Arc

this from memory because it particularly stung because I had the other front five in the betting all at long ante post prices

May have run over 12f before the race cannot remember

One that could go off at a very big price on the french tote is Snow Fairy, ok she's far from the best in the field but she isnt all that bad at all and could be suited by being tucked in and played very very late was brilliant last Autumn and could be one of those fillies that take off this time of year

Which bookmakers take pmu now, havent had a bet at french tote odds for ages and heard that some bookmakers dont do them due to having all their own special prices

Cheers TM, Ill be hoping for different ground than you will on arc day then

Think SYT is very vulnerable to a finisher here imo, dont think hes quite got the toe to be ridden right out the back and ive a feeling that the winner wont be in the 1st 10 coming into the straight.

Who plays last could very well win this

firm - meandre,syt
good to firm - meandre,syt
good - meandre,syt
good to soft - galicova,reliable man,sarafina,nathaniel
soft/heavy - reliable man,nathaniel
may not be as many runners this yr

Sarafina wins under all conditions, carrying a keg of Carlsberg. I hope this helps.

A slight worry for Sarafina backers would be the trend that the Arc has been won at the first time of asking. Tony Bin in '88 was the last horse to win at the 2nd attempt having been runner-up the previous year. I find it interesting that the 5 older horses to win the Arc since then missed it previously.

Last year Sarafina was almost brought down so it's not as if she gave her best running - she'd have won with a clear run IMO.

Im not sure you could back her in-running tbh because you just dont know if she will gets the breaks like everything else ? And if they do arrive, the odds will change in a second. You could put up an in-running lay at Evens, I suppose if you have big prices, presuming she finishes with a late rattle having had no clear run etc ?

The draw, as always, has a big bearing on this though and Zarkava had the coffin box but was still able to win with a late run. You also have the fact the stewards over there will demote anything that causes anything in behind to lose a place.

Sarafina had a very troubled passage coming round the turn in last year's Arc. Once she regained her composure, she flew home and arguably would have won with a clearer run.

However, I think a lot of her fans are putting a lot of emphasis into what happened then, and under-focusing on her form this year - which let's be fair is no more impressive than many of her rivals.

It will certainly take a lot more than a neck victory over Cirrus Des Aigles, and a similiar margin of victory over Hiruno D'amour to win the Arc. She was supposed to improve for her run in the Prix Ganay, and similiar trainer quotes before the Foy which leaves the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud as the most accurate means of assessing her. And that particular win does not stand out.

I'm not ruling out the possibility of her winning but her price of 7/2 does not reflect fairly her form this year in my opinion.

A-T, I wouldn't disagree with anything in your first paragraph. However, I wouldn't be so confident of the conclusions you draw. She is a fine filly but her form this year is no more impressive than So You Think, Reliable Man, Meandre, Galikova and Nathaniel.

I have wrote plenty about SYT on this forum recently, expecially in relation to the points you raise in paragraph two. Suffice to say, that I would disagree that the trip is anything remotely close to a worry, and the belief that he is only in the race because of an injury to Pour Moi is not something that I buy into either.

I would not be amazed if So You Think finished in front of Sarafina, nor would I be amazed if those placings are reversed. To be honest, no result in horse racing would 'amaze' me. However, in the context of this debate, I would favour SYT to finish ahead of Sarafina in the Arc.

SYT...Champion Stayer in Australia last year. Probably been crying out for this trip. Stayed on very well in the Eclipse and Irish Champion when looking beat on both occasions.

25 potential runners in the ARC!!! Sarafina could be in a whirlwind of trouble here.

For me there is a reason this horse has stuck to 10f - that's his optimum distance.

The horse has stuck to 10f because his trainer had another horse to run in the Coronation Cup and the King George. If someone wants to think that he dosen't stay 12f because he hasn't raced over that distance, well that's there perogrative. It's a foolish assumption in my opinion.

So You Think also ran a good race in Flemington but he's better than what he showed there. A combination of two mile distance, very soft ground and second race in four days all had an effect. All told, a third placing wasn't a bad effort.

Sint...fair enough.....there is reason to think SYT hasn't been aimed at the Arc. However, I am satisfied he will be as well prepared as all of his rivals for the race, and it's just a question of being good enough. And I think he will be.