I wouldn't get too excited lads.  I'm just fiddling away on a rag.

Of more importance, I believe the Germans are (strongly) considering an Arc supp for Danedream after yesterday's trials.

Yep.  He impressed on his comeback and has been confirmed for the Tessio on Sunday.  The Jockey Club is still the most likely target but they have a decent fallback horse with Jakkalberry for that and if he schits up on Sunday I'd imagine they'll consider the supp if the ground looks like being decent on Arc day.  This is a good horse imo.

I don't think I'll be doing any more 1000s today, Pete, at ease.

Incidentally (as you've no doubt worked out) the book would be close to broke
if all those 999/1 shots weren't there.

Yep, two ways of looking at that - back all the 'runners', which only numbers around 9/10...is the field going to be that small?.....or try and catch a wave on the rags.  I've always prefered the latter myself!  Golden Lilac anyone?

Posts are crossing here.

That's the thing with BF, the margins are tight alright. A good bettor can get all
the horses in at 80-90% if he's clever about it. A daft layer can get them all in
at 110% if he's really careless. Pour Moi was a bit of a bonus for anyone making
a book on the Arc (even if we are always sorry to see a horse injured). At the moment
WF is skewing my book terribly because I'm just not prepared to lay 8/1 ish. I'll end
up looking silly if they report he hurt is leg in the same way happened to PM.

Thanks for that Head. I hope you're right. Meantimes I'll end up with WF winning
me almost as much as Crackerjack wins you :)

well its not often ya get firm ground on Arc day

You've lost me there mr_sykes

Just pulling yer leg.

I'd have preferred it if you'd announced your bet in advance - only £11 of it was mine
so you'd have still got plenty on! I can't seem to find the £200 bet on Crackerjack now -
was I imagining it or just misreading it?

Obviously, it would be better if I laid all the horses at 25/1 or less, but that way I'd
only get a dozen in my book.

Soft side of soft normally, n'est-ce pas?

Which is one good reason to give credit to WF who is proven over C + D + going

Somewhat of an aside, but nevertheless of interest to some, perhaps - the golden boy will not be riding at the Arc!

Attheraces.com

"Christophe Soumillon will miss next month's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe after receiving a 15-day suspension at Longchamp on Sunday.

The Belgian rider was hit with the lengthy ban after he was adjudged to have been responsible for the fall of Arrivederla in the Prix Al Wakra on Arc trials day.

His mount, Glasshoughton, passed the post in first place, but was disqualified and placed last.

Soumillon has won the Arc twice, aboard Dalakhani (2003) and Zarkava (2008), and would have been in much demand for the Longchamp feature on October 2.

"It's very disappointing news," said the jockey's British agent Shippy Ellis.

"We haven't arranged anything concrete for Christophe, but he would have had a good ride. I am not sure whether he can appeal at this stage."

my tenative selections so far all have issues. Guess I'll have to wait till the day.

If SYT runs then I'll back him as I believe he possesses the necessary class and star appeal to win a race of this nature. Doubt he'll run though. Looks like its the Champion Stakes then perhaps the BC Turf with his free entry.

If its bone hard firm ground then Hiruno D'Amour. Fiesty Japanese pulled a fast one on Sunday. Clear Cut case of schooling in public and he caught the eye well....was heavily backed on the PMU so someone fancied him.  Cant blame them....Arc clearly the goal. Won a red hot G1 over 2 miles on firm last time out in Japan and all form on Firm. Top trainer back him in Japan...Jockey now know his way around longchamp...although a switch to someone like Dettori would excite me massively. Doubt he'll get firm ground though. 

If its a Heavy, Holding or Soft then Danedream. Improved massively. Bloodless win last time out. No telling how good she is. Devastating turn of foot in the slop. doubt they'll supplement her.

...

thats all really.

Sint, I thought it interesting 'cos Shippy Ellis is his English agent, so I'm taking it that English-speaking trainer(s) were promising him a good ride.  Whether that's Workforce, SYT, Snow Fairy, Sea Moon(?) or what, it would be nice to know. Unfortunately we are once again in a situation where running and riding plans are quite firm in some quarters but are not being made public

ELG, I might be wrong and they've a long way to go before confirming the supp but there's definitely some nice vibes coming out of Germany.  If she doesn't go it will have been a close call.

You don't hear vibes - you feel them :)

Anyone know when supplementary deadline is, please?
Headmaster, is there a translation German to English and can you give full site address, please?
Thanks in advance.

http://www.galopponline.de/service/news/news.php

Auch nach den wichtigsten Vorbereitungsrennen für den Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe am
Sonntag steht für das Danedream-Team fest: "Der Arc ist immer noch ein Thema". So
Trainer Peter Schiergen am Montagmorgen gegenüber GaloppOnline.de.

Even after the most important preparatory race for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on
Sunday is certain for the Danedream team: "The Arc is still a plan." Said trainer
Peter Schiergen on Monday morning to GaloppOnline.de.

Not a great translation but my German is not even as good as Google's.

SHOULD HAVE READ BOTH.

given that he ran in the Melbourne Cup 3 DAYS!!! after winning the Group 1 MacKinnon last Autumn, could run in both as there is a 2 week gap.

Crazy not to go for the Arc IMO in the circumstances, have seen nothing in any of the trials I think will beat him if he turns up on decent ground

I think the drift indicates that he will not run. A real shame as unlike many on this forum I thought he would have given a good account of himself, I would have liked to have witnessed it & would have been the first to eat 'humble pie' had he run poorly. Needless to say I had plenty on at good prices but took out 'insurance' on Meandre,Galikova,Hiruno Damour & Danedream so all is not lost. Just think it would have enhanced the race greatly but there we are. I've backed him for the breeders Cup Classic so am hoping they'll have the ba**s to run him there as I think he'll run fine on the dirt & don't think the 'Home team' is that good this year by all accounts.  Good luck all.

2.2 on here at the mo should imagine would be a lot shorter if a definite runner but there in lies the problem. Akin to peeing in the dark in a swirling wind.

Thank you HM very informative. Reports that Danedream 'accelerated through the slop' in it's last race. Not sure what it beat but got to be encouraging if the ground is anything like the end of racing last sunday?