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These 275 comments are related to the topic:
**HENNESSY GOLD CUP**
**HENNESSY GOLD CUP**
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Replies: 275
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Beaten Knockara Beau twice narrowly Pigeon Isand 2length never achieved a speed rating near what is needed to win a Hennessey sorry not for me still not convinced he will stay 3m 2 but good luck its good to have opinions
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Yeah always good to have opinions, but here's my take on it...
1. Beat Knockara Beau giving weight easily at Wetherby. That horse was then 4th in the RSA. 2. Very lightly raced, just had 4 races over fences (6 in career), has won all 4 (been beaten just the once). Open to serious improvement. 3. Speed figures mean absoultely fack all over the sticks. |
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in the end the eye should rule the head if theres a nagging doubt.
imv a very nice horse but 152 seems fair at the moment. would have a very good chance in handicaps. carlisle form; i rate josh higher and door boy lower and that puts it on about 152 today.... then its possible there could be more. personally i do. jumps nice, has plenty of class and appears very genuine. in hind sight my 33's for the chelt gold cup is probably fair... a fun bet (although this is the ap forum, i very rarely bet ap !) |
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speed figures mean nothing TD I'M sorry but at this level they mean everything
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3. Speed figures mean absoultely fack all over the sticks.
Very silly boy  |
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Whats the story with the Paddy Power winner, would they get re-assesed for the Hennessy or a penalty?
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^^^ ala Celestial Gold pretty sure the answer is yes.
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I suppose all you Speed gurus were lumping on Tidal Bay to beat Big Buck's in the World Hurdle ?
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and have been taking on one of the best ever staying hurdlers continually as he has never produced a 'time' ?
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Cheers Howdi
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sorry im an idiot. would he get a 6ilb penalty or was celestial re-assessed?
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I suppose all you Speed gurus were lumping on Tidal Bay to beat Big Buck's in the World Hurdle ?
But Tidal has never put up a figure better than Big Bucks, not on my ratings anyway. Maybe on others ratings though  |
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anyway i wouldnt say speed figs are the be al and end all but they are an extremely useful tool in NH races imho
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there is a 4lb penalty for a chase winner after 7th November for the hennessy.
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You're ratings are obviously much better than Mordins then.
Sorry for getting carried away, just was sick of reading that garbage about BB from Mordin whne he couldn't just admit he was wrong. His stuff on the flat is generally very good as are Figgis's times. In regards to Celestial GOld,, this is what it said on the RP analysis, think it means he got a penalty ? Martin Pipe continued his remarkable domination of the race with CELESTIAL GOLD, a horse who might not have been an obvious contender for the race during the summer, but who scored with the same finesse of some of his trainer´s past winners. A smart point-to-pointer, he showed good form in the spring, notably when denied close home in the four-mile National Hunt Chase at the Festival. Dropped back significantly in trip, he appreciated the strong early gallop but still displayed a tremendous cruising speed. He loomed large down the hill after being held up at the rear and found plenty when asked. He was always holding Thisthatandtother in the climb to the line. Still only six and with the same number of starts under Rules to his name, he has massive potential for further improvement, with the next obvious target for him the Hennessy. Set to be really well handicapped for that race, even with a penalty, he will be perfectly suited by the demands of the Newbury contest and the 8-1 widely offered will not be available on the day if he runs. |
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Thanks PMT, much appreciated
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Is it just two weeks between the races ? Would be a tough ask but that seems to be the aim with Great Endeavour.
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Cheers TD.
Ah i think Nick Mordin gets plenty of undeserved flak. BB imho hasnt my ratings either put up an outstanding time in relation to previous great 3m hurdlers. Thats no criticism of him though. He may put up one still. Mr Mordin creates debate which is no bad thing I find his articles interesting even if i dont agree with him always. |
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Never look at speed figures,aint done me too much harm.
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Kauto to run ?
Sounds like a right load of nonsense to me. Why risk taking the edge off Kauto to win a G3 handicap when the G1 King George will suit his strengths. Ridiculous. |
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Thanks PMT, so it looks like a small re assessment by the handicapper for WEIRED AL, probably up to 155.
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The Hennessy is under serious consideration for Kauto according to Clive Smith
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Surely Denman and Kauto wont run against each other in handicap?
Could be beginning of end if they do,but would be interesting! |
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yes it would be great to see kauto in the hennessey he would run off 11-12 denman 11-0 neptune 10-0 not much good to those of us who have bet diamond harry and weird al 9-02 12lb out of handicap why cant they raise hcp to 12-7 ie arkles day i wonder if he would run then
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I think its hot them that it may be the last season for the Star. But they do like taking the challenge as in tingle creek some years ago. The thing that will stop them is it would surely wouldnt be ideal prep for king george.
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I think they will go for it with Kauto for reasons outlined on the other thread. It would be fantastic for racing if they did.
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fantastic having a horse thats never won a hcap or conditions race push all but 2 others out of the handicap in what would generally be one of the best races in the season. a proper shambles is what it would be
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That's what in a less extreme way what Arkle did.
Before Arkle there was no "long handicap". When he won the Hennessy at odds of 1/5, there were similar complaints that he had turned a competitive handicap into a farce. However I must say that seeing Kauto Star trying to give 8lbs to Denman and all the weight to the others would be like a deja vu from all those years ago. Remember Arkle lost 2 Hennessy's too. The first was when the brilliant Mill House conceded Arkle weight and won (although Arkle did make a mistake), the second when Arkle got caught close home by Stallbridge Colonist (received 42lbs). |
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The IRISH interest (of the 66 entries).......
Arbor Supreme (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 8 Bluesea Cracker (IRE) J. Motherway, Ireland 8 China Rock (IRE) M. F. Morris, Ireland 7 Follow The Plan (IRE) Oliver McKiernan, Ireland 7 Glencove Marina (IRE) E. Griffin, Ireland 8 Killyglen (IRE) S. R. B. Crawford, Ireland 8 Notre Pere (FR) J. T. R. Dreaper, Ireland 9 Pandorama (IRE) N. Meade, Ireland 7 Pomme Tiepy (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 7 Quiscover Fontaine (FR) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 6 Rare Bob (IRE) D. T. Hughes, Ireland 8 Siegemaster (IRE) D. T. Hughes, Ireland 9 The Midnight Club (IRE) W. P. Mullins, Ireland 9 Vic Venturi (IRE) D. T. Hughes, Ireland 10 |
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Looking forward to Glencove Marina this year. Think could challenge the best in Ireland.
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Personally, I hope he doesn't run as I don't think it's the race for him, and I want to back Diamond Harry. Unfortunately, until we know if he runs, it's a no bet race.
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diamond harry will run barring an injury and will noy run before the hennessy as he goes well fresh
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He'll take some beating off 152, fresh, on soft ground and a flat track. I love the horse but don't think he trains on too weel after Christmas. The Hennessy and possibly the King George are made for him. If something goes wrong at newbury, the Racing Post Chsase might suit if the ground is still soft.
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id say the after christmas thing is on account of the ground, maybe im wrong. soft ground, a flat track and a fresh horse and hes a good un
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I think you're right about the ground, the really soft stuff which suits him has normally gone by March. Having said that, he ran a blinder in the Ballymore behind Mikael D'Haguenet.
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i think his ratin is very reasonable given his hurdles ability. id say hes been schooling a lot and if so theres big rewards to be had. i think paul nicholls would be an absolute muppet to run kauto in the hennessy
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Hope so, this will be one of my biggest bets of the season if Nicholls doesn't run Kauto Star. I bsaw him win at Haydock in January and the speed he showed there was frightening over 2 1/2 miles. I really believe 152 is lenient given his optimum conditions.
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if he was in the same position as what a friend was last year at the third last i could easily see him fending off denman. tbh id be more worried about the likes of wierd al than denners
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No reason why Kauto can't perform as well under 11-12 at Newbury as he did at Cheltenham and Kempton under 11-10 last year.
If he runs, I don't know what to make of the race. Still think Pandorama will love it if soft and running off bottom weight. |
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he wasnt giving weight away. i dont think hed be able to beat denners giving away weight away and from a neutral perspective, to have so few horses in the handicap would be a shambles
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