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What did Nicholls say? I haven't backed anything for the race yet because of the different scenario if Kauto runs. Weird Al and Pandorama are my main fancies although I would love to see Denman win it again!
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Effectively, he implied he wasn't that in favour of Kauto running if the wanted to have a real crack at a 5th King George. The conditions of the Hennessy might suit, and he'd run well, but the effort expended might mean he 'leaves the King George behind'.
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Yeah basically Clive need to pick between Hennessy or 5th King George, which does he want more. As Nicholls feels Kauto might leave himself at Newbury were he to run there.
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Actually PN said in today's RP 'Clive dosn't want to talk about it until Monday. We are going to canter him and make a decision after that. Clive's very keen, and I can see why, but while there are lots of points in his favour, there are also lots against. The race is still two weeks away and I don't want to be forced into a decision'.
So I disagree with you Joci club and CV. I still think he will run. With everything except Denman and Neptune running out of the handicap means most are carrying penalties. Madison is 7lb out and Diamond and Wierd are 12lb out. Looking at it a different way that reduces KS actual weight to 11st 5lb or 11 st compared with those out of the handicap. And none of these have been dropped to their weights they are all raised so they may not be as good as their weight. I've gone on a limb and backed him at all prices from the outset because I think Clive will run him. I think he waited to see how dangerous Long Run would be hence no decision until Monday. I could be wrong but PN's statement is not a negative to me. |
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I've heard the owners positive comments a while back where he said that Kauto's not getting any younger, and he wouldn't mind running him more, and it would be great seeing him win a big handicap for a change. So you could be right, depends who is more persuasive, the owner or the trainer. My view is that he won't run, but I'd be happy to see him make the line-up, in what might well be his last season.
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Where has PN said he would leave the KG behind if he ran in the Hennessy? I've seen all of the feeds and read the news he hasn't made any negative statements at all. He just said Clive is keen to run. PN hasn't said it would be difficult giving the weight to Denman or Neptune, he hasn't said anything about Newbury or the ground or anything like that, or carryig 11st 12lb. He has made no comments like that at all.
I think they have waited to see what Long Run did and what kind of opposition he would be in the KG. They have an idea now so it's decision time. I think yes, he runs. |
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"I said to Clive that at the end of the day if you want a serious go at the King George for a fifth time, are we going to leave the race behind if we go to Newbury and take that chance," Nicholls said.
"There's nothing wrong with him running at Newbury. With so many out of the weights it would suit him, but if you really want to go for a fifth King George, you are taking the risk of leaving it behind. "We are going to have to think about that and have a chat tomorrow." |
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This is looking like a great shout at 25/1 now best price 6/1 ding dong..Diamond Harry, Weird Al (wish i got on at 25's) & Hey Big Spender for me in this..Looks a wide open race though like previous comments suggest..Would love to see Denman win it again but i think this year is a year to many for the tank..This is going to be a grrrreat race..
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Actually I never saw that CV, when did he say that?
But even from that he is only saying what is true. I've never thought anything else. But with Long Run not bolting up the odds must be swinging in favour. Come on Clive, it's time for men to stand up and be men. |
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today on c4 brigust[;)]
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Thankx Turnip, I was watching RUK. I know you can read anything into what people say but all PN is doing is asking the question. Neither he nor Clive will know unless they take the chance and Clive's obviously keen. Of course PN would like to win both and no risk but there you are.
As I said earlier 'Come on Clive, nothing ventured nothing gained'. I'm all in and this could cost. But money aside CS will never ever be in this position again and neither will KS so I think he runs. If he misses it and wins the KG he will always wonder whereas if he runs and leaves the KG behind, and that's no certainty, he can hold his head up and know he did the right thing, not the safe thing. |
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Weird Al still a big threat even from 12 lbs out of handicap - Pandorama potentially interesting too.
Great race even without Kauto, stellar renewal with him. |
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brigust they never really feared Long Run in the King George. IC is the threat. Always was.
Personally I hope Kauto doesn't run. He can go to Sandown for the B365 if they want a handicap run. He was entered there earlier this year. |
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Yeah whatever CV. The 365 is nothing like the Hennessy. That is real history making. And you don't think LR was/is still the danger, are you kidding? The bookies do even after the other day. And he was even shorter before the PP. No, I'm batting for a run, always have been. Anything else is a cop out. I think CS will think that as well and bite the bullet.
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Take it easy man, I just said personally I wouldn't run him. Also a 5yo putting up a 175+ in the King George was never possible. I believe they always feared IC more regardless of the Long Run hype.
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Long Run has show his liking for Kempton. He's run twice at Cheltenham, and run, though respectably, below expectations. We might see a different horse on Boxing Day, on a flatter track with a greater emphasis on speed. Saturday might not have been his day, but his day may still come.
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Well we may know more today. Will Clive make the right decision ala Goldokova, Zenyatta and Workforce (Arc) or the safe decision, Sea the Stars going to stud.
I await with bated breath. |
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We might see a better Long Run but Kauto has run three 180+ races at Kempton in the last 3 years. No 5yo is capable of running to that mark over 3m. So Long Run may improve as he is still young horse, so it's unfair to judge him so young, but it's close to impossible to believe he can win baring a fall/blunder from Kauto and IC.
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Non runner. F u c k i t.
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Yes a sghame, however he would have had a very hard task winning off 190 - he would have had to have run around 200 to win off such a rating. With the weights set to rise it may bring in the Weird Al, Pandorama, and Burton Port horses.
I quite like Burton Port myself. Each season he seems to demontrate the sort of qualities I like in horses I back - he wins quite often! |
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Anyone like carruthers? 1lb out of the handicap if Denman runs. Think the track and trip is ideal.
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Weird Al and Neptune Collonges stand out big time for me in this.
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Head says Weird Al/Hey Big Spender, heart says Denman.
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I'm torn because I think it's great Sam Thomas rides Denman and it would be nice for him to win it, however if PN hasn't run KS because of Denman I look forward to Pandorama with the weights rise. But don't follow me because I thought KS was sure to run. Kept digging.
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I think Weird Al is fantastic and his form has seriously been boosted this w/e; but for me the stand out horse is Neptune Collonges. Why such a big price. Running off a feather weight (his true weight also), flat track, likely softish ground. With his graded irish winning from surely thrown in if fit and retaining his ability. PN says definately runs also.
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I have to agree with Woodworm. Dropped 10b due to being off, must have a big chance and may be the reason KS doesn't run. I think KS would have given the 8lb to Denman.
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Weather Forecast is totally rain free from now till the race with cold, dry bright conditions.
With conditons likely to be relatively quick who is this going to benefit most - maybe Burton Port? Can certainly see Pandorama being a non runner for starters. |
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Pando won't be a non runner even if the race is called of. Runs no matter what.
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cant see denners going off higher than 5/2 either. loads f ppl love him and will back him based n that rather than his chances me thinks
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No money asking to back Burton Point, is this a possible non runner now, I felt it had a massive chance.
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Happier now as there seems to be a few quid for him, on his novice form, especially the improvement shown at Cheltenham I can't see why Diamond Harry or Weird Al are a shorter price, from last season's novices.
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Diamond Harry is a shorter price as he thrashed him on the bridle giving tonnes of weight in the Fixed Brush race at Haydock. He doesn't run as well as the season progresses but first time out on soft ground and flat left handed track, he's very useful. Burton Port's form from Aintree doesn't look that great (second Dance Island beaten miles off 137 on Saturday), his Ascot win is not up to much and he ran like he needed further in the RSA Chase. The key may be the ground so could be worth waiting until we know more.
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Does anyone know whether China Rock is running in this?
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pretty sure this race is further?
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incase hasnt been mentioned, Paddy Brennan takes the ride on Weird Al, rode him to the Grade 2 win at Wetherby, has bigged him up this week.
I really dont understand Fehily/Nicholls, we know Denman has got Thomas on board, you would expect common sense would take over on Fehilys part, he isnt officially retained so he could say look i want to ride Weird Al, he is my Gold cup horse. I would perfectly understand if Kauto was in the race but riding Neptune Collonges probably seems strange to me. think Douggie Costello will be licking his lips at the chance of riding Weird Al in the hennessey personally with Fehily missing this, Brennan on IC and Costello the unofficial stable **** for Williams. |
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problem with neptune collognes is probably the lay off. Market suggests that aswell, imo i think taranis could be the nicholls horse. Obviously only had 1 run since he's been off aswell but a break didn't stop him at cheltenham.
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brennan on ic? brennan riding wierd al u mean? think douggie should have got the ride on al though. more than likely down to the owners though
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A fixed brush hurdle race isn't quite the same as a Hennessey though is it, and has Diamond Harry shown the same level of form in a competitive chase yet ?
For Burton Port to show any sort of form at Aintree let alone win the race, having run such a massive race in the RSA says he's high class in my opinion. Add to the rate of improvement the Henderson horse showed through the season suggests he's a much better horse than he was when being beaten by DH over hurdles. |
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Can't have Denman of a higher mark than last time, giving lumps of weight to some very promising 2nd season chasers. Yes he beat What a Friend with that fellow carrying 10-4 last year, but I think that horse is over rated as he's not actually beaten much since even if a Grade 1 winner. I'd expect one of Weird Al, Diamond Harry or Burton Port to prove better than What a Friend in time, clearly with my preference for the latter.
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shevvy, i think at the end of last season burton port was a better horse. at the start, judging on the fixed brush form i think DH was the better horse. if diamond harry brushes up on his jumping and can jump as well as burton port in the hennessy then i cant see burton port finishing in front of harry. problem is god only knows how harry is goin t jump until we see him. might b a good in running bet though
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