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He'll be ok. Must think the horse is worth it!
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have to say - one of the best hennessys of recent years tomorrow. Really what the industry needs, hope for a grandstand finish.
Neptune Collognes a massive ew price imo off that rating. Have to think PN will have him ready and while he might get run out of it in end, i think an ew bet to nothing |
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It's a great race in prospect and i'm lucky enough
to be there tomorrow . It would be brilliant if Denman does the business and i certainly wouldn't rule it out . At the bigger prices , Hey Big Spender catches my eye but in truth 7 or 8 have good chances . |
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agree custard. it will be sky plussed as ill be at twickers for some egg chasing. Could be one to cherish. Gladly by being there means i wont be backing all 8 that i think can win when i keep changing my mind
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Anyone not feel it is a bit of a gamble betting on Neptune ? I get the handicap angle as he is/was a class act, and his trainer is the daddy in Graded chases, but didn't have a serious injury ? A ruptured Tendon ? That would be a worry for me, tbh, i'd almost feel like i'd be betting blind if I were to back him.
A big factor though I suppose is the fact Nicholls has said he might come one for the race, which usually means they win. |
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Neptune is a bit of a gamble, but he was 20/1. Nicholls has said he is over his injury. At least we know he was capable of top class form, it is a bit of a gamble backing any of the second season chasers who we would be guessing at their potential.
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Hugh Taylor tipped up Neptune (and Taranis) today Sint.
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cheers, I've just been over and read it.
said he has resorted to old fashioned handicapping for his selections as he does not fancy the ones at the front of the market. I thought he might have gone for Carruthers then tbh, given he has a 10lb pull with Taranis from the Cheltenham run but he must have been put off by his debut at Ascot. On various runnings Carruhters look very well handicapped of his weight imo, he just needs to Jump!! ![]() Hard to believe he is a 7yo it seems like he has been around for ages. |
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what's Gunner backing ? Weird Al ?
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Yep, WA.
Pando & Neptune here, savers Silver & Dream All. |
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good stuff.
Carr & Silver for me too. Pando is in my TTF list so no qualms if he wins either. Laters Daz! |
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I really like Taranis in this.
Yes he has had a lay off, but that never stopped him p1ssing up in the pillar chase last year. He has a great record after a good break, and is one of the few horses in the handicap proper. Ground should be fine but I suppose my one concern is whether he will get the trip or not? He has always looked like he was a pacy type to me rather than a true stayer, but at a double figure price this is more than compensation imo. Tbh I think the 2nd season chasers may struggle. No evidence but just my gut instinct that they may all not be that great a crop. Apart from Taranis, Denman surely has to go well given how he has performed in the race before. I feel he must be bang there at the finish. Neptune Collonges is well off at the weights with Denman on his Gold Cup running but is he as good as he was? Hard to know obviously, but Nicholls and Hales are happy with him so that is enough for me to think a good run could be in the offing. If he had shown his wellbeing this season there is no doubt in my mind that he would be vieing for favouritism running of his current mark. So in short, I will be perming the 3 in tricasts and hoping for a nice, big retirement fund ![]() As always gl all |
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If Burton Port is thereabouts at the last he wins as he has the best turn of foot in the race. My concern is will his jumping stand up under the pressure to get him into position? As a novice they seemed to think they had to ride him out wide as if he needed a long look at his fences. He may not get away with that today.
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Best turn of foot definitely belongs to Diamond Harry who laughed at Burton Port giving him lumps of weight at Haydock first time up last year. I'd say there's a slight stamina doubt for Diamond Harry plus you're taking a chance on his jumping but he's sure to have been well schooled and a fast run race should help.
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Have a feeling this will take some getting today,Silver by Nature for me at a nice price,and think Dream Alliance price is much too big,and worth a shot imo.Also going to take a chance on the fitness of Neptune,nice weight pull with Denman.
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budd
I am surprised you say that as the times over the last couple of days suggest the ground is good, especially when you consider that they are racing on the courses' widest line. A lot of the contenders' form has come on slow ground and I was siding against these (which didn't leave much left!!). On another thread I thought Denman would have too many "young pretenders" to have it all his own way, but I am beginning to change my mind. One to watch I think - filed in the too difficult tray for me. Good luck on your picks. |
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Fair comment,just think(or hoping!!)that their will be enough juice in the ground to make it a pace that will suit him.He will stay forever and if he CAN avoid getting outpaced has a chance,although i accept if it is more good than soft,then will probably struggle.Still he is a big price!!
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I'm not put off by the Haydock form booster. Burton Port progressed and Diamond Harry regressed to my eyes. I won't back him until after the last though. My big hope is Weird Al and am praying he's over his last race.
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Well done booster. It was obviously his target. I backed Burton at the last as well.
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Denman lost nothing there fantastic
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Denman is not going to race again until the Gold Cup according to trainer. He'll need to break too.
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fantastic performance from a true racing great in Denman
wd Harry backers, love that horse too |
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Thanks Red and White, sure your horse will have his day. His profile says he improves as the season progresses but think slightly longer trips will show him in a better light.
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I think three miles would be OK. As I feared his jumping came under pressure. He made a couple of mistakes prior to the cross fence which nearly brought him to a halt. After that he did remarkably well to get so close. Diamond Harry won deservedly as his jumping was far superior.
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Yes, quite possible as he did win over 3 miles at Aintree and he was clearly second best yesterday under Diamond Harry's optimum conditions. I would actually fancy him to get closer or in front by Cheltenham I suppose.
By the way, are you a Stoke fan? |
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I'm a mackem. If you're a Stoke fan booster you'll know my team well as you take a lot of our players and do very well with them given your budget. We have a huge budget and lose to the likes of Wolves, another team that takes our so-called cast offs. We can beat the likes of Chelsea on our day though so I fancy us for a cup run this season.
I think they may be tempted to go the King George route with Burton. Barry will need a ride as the owner will probably stick with his son on Long Run. You obviously know the Aintree form well so have another look at the finish and you'll see what I mean about his turn of foot on a faster track than yesterday's. He'll need to jump much better though as he tried to carry the cross fence home with him. I rate the two novices yesterday very highly. They pulled well clear of one of the all time greats and there were plenty other good young horses taking their chance in a high class renewal. I backed Diamond Harry for the RSA and allowed my disappointment to linger into this season so ignored him beforehand. Emotion got in the way again. Related to the Aintree form I just want to thank you for your WN tip. The more I studied the form the more interested I got and I'm sure you'll be aware your horse easily beat last year's WN winner a month beforehand over hurdles at Chepstow on soft. He'll be very well in propably off something like 10 stone, had a decent enough prep and handles the track and likely ground. Just the sort of winter warmer I was looking for. |
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Forgot to mention, on his first ever chase run he beat a small though decent field over 3m2f so the distance shouldn't be a problem either.
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Yes, I'm a Stoke fan and we do well to keep our place in the top flight but some of the footie played is not really to my liking so rarely go. More likely to be at Uttoxeter, Bangor or Cheltenham on a Saturday I'm afraid but always watch them on TV and probably go 2 or 3 times a season.
Dance Island first came to my notice when he routed Dream Alliance over hurdles as I'd backed Dream Alliance and really thought he was the type to go well next time but disappointed if I remember. Really fancied him at Warwick as one of my main theories on betting is that horses (especially over jumps) have a preferred direction and he likes to go left handed. As often happens, I didn't back him there and didn't bother next time but did so each way at Aintree. Even allowing for the fact that Burton Port could have run slightly below his best, Dance Island is undeniably well handicapped looking at Take The Breeze and his subsequent run behind Massini's Maguire at Ascot assuming he's not gone up for his Haydock second. I backed him that day but the trainer seemed to think in his notes that he'd need it and I feel Chepstow over Christmas may well be his time. Let's hope so anyway. |
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On the subject of Burton Port, I don't know if he'd be quick enough over 3 miles round Kempton but I'm sure there'll be races for him. If not the Nationals, maybe the Lexus, Irish Hennessy, Cotswold or AON Chase could give him compensation. He's the type to always give you a run for your money and may be underestimated due to the presence of Long Run and Punchestowns in the stable.
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Yes, I think he will be underestimated. I'm not saying he can win a King George but if they go that route I think it a no-brainer he will be much shorter on the day. Personally I think Long Run would have a great chance of beating Kauto with a pro on board. No disrespect to Mr. Whaley-Cohen who has shown the bottle and ability to win given the right ammunition but he wouldn't be riding in Grade 1's if it wasn't for his dad putting him up. If it was my son I'm sure I would do the same. I'm envious of your location. My nearest track, Perth, is 90 minutes away and they only jump during the summer. Well worth a visit though.
I'm very bullish about Cue Card. What's your view? He runs in the Bula a week on Saturday weather permitting. We have one and a half feet of snow just now so I lose track of what's happening weather wise down south. |
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R&W - Cue Card running in the Bula? That's ambitious at this stage of his career. I'll be laying him.
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On the subject of weather I'm supposed to be attending a meeting in South Shields and one in Newcastle but can't see me making it this week as we work with schools so they may be closed anyway. Bitter cold down here but hoping Folkestone goes ahead as we're running our horse there. Perth looks great, especaially the meeting in April/May, one of many things I have to do when my 3 little ones have grown up.
If you've got a good price on Cue Card for Cheltenham, I'd say it's worth gold but not sure which race he'll turn up in. As far as The Bula goes, unless he was over 3-1, which I doubt, I wouldn't be going in but that's because I don't back at shorter than that. At Kempton, I respect Long Run, who is a classic flat track chaser and could go really well but also have a soft spot for Planet of Sound each way, who I backed at 25-1 in the morning of his Punchestown Gold Cup victory. Loves going right handed and had a nice sighter at Haydock. 20-1 each way well worth having a look at. |
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You have a horse? Nice one. You could maybe find an excuse to run him at Perth. Although it's a long way to travel the competition isn't strong. Southern and Irish trainers like Hobbs, Twiston and Elliot seem to hoover up and the form rarely seems to work out when they run back down south so it's not as if they're bringing their best animals. The course would have to be one of the nicest in Britain and is managed by Sam Morshead who was a top amateur jock back in the golden years. I'll have a look at Planet of Sound's videos. Seem to recall he's a bold jumper. The form against Imperial Commander will be strong and I would certainly back him to reverse it at Kempton (def not Cheltenham) though I doubt IC will run due to the cut he sustained.
I have Cue Card at 146 for the CH. I backed him for the Cheltenham bumper so I'm definitely biased and as such my view should be treated with caution. All I would say is each time I see him I feel like I'm watching Montelado who I thing could have been one of the greats if it wasn't for the dreaded injury. I also took a view early on that Colin Tizzard is bold enough to go for the Champion if he thinks the horse is good enough. Hopefully we'll know one way or another in a couple of weeks. Still holed up in Aberdeenshire - would be away skiing if the roads were open. |
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Have a few quid on Chord at Folkestone today. No good thing by any means, quite a tricky race for the money but unexposed and fancied.
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R&W - was it you that mentioned Montelado on another thread recently? I can't remember if it was, but as a fan of the horse myself, I'm probably not telling you something you don't already know in that he was the first Cheltenham Bumper winner in '92. Furthermore, not a lot of people know this (Cockney accent) but he's the only horse to have won CONSECUTIVE races at the Festival. PS - any further Bula Hurdle news?
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Shame your meeting was abandoned booster. Must have been a late decision.
Yeah Harchy I had a real soft spot for Montelado. He beat the good thing Tianenman Square in the bumper didn't he then followed up in the Supreme in a time quicker than Granville again in the Champion. I just think Cue Card races and jumps with the same zest and puts daylight between himself and the rest in similar fashion. I hope I'm right and I am now and again though I've been left bemused more often. |