I'm with Sint and had a dabble at 25-1 on Silver By Nature, I like this horse a lot!!!! He did me proud last season, he jumps and gallops and will be finishing the race better than most. He does want soft or heavy ground but I think it could be tacky, stamina sapping ground and the likely strong pace will play to his strenghts. Silver doesn't mind running in big fields either!!!

I love Denman to bits but the extra weight and a year older (stats) might go against him this time, I will probably change my mind on the day though when I see him!!!

Not sure Newbury is due to get any rain.

It's great to see so many people giving an argument for each horse. It's not very often you get a race like this where most think their horse has a decent chance of winning. Roll on Saturday and PANDORAMANIA

def worth opposing though imo, but on the day at a shorter price. won one of last 7 races and no real explanation for hangin so bad at punchestown

Is CR running now? [:x]

CHINA ROCK, who had earlier in the week been reported to be a non-runner for Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup, was a surprise name among the 19 declared for Saturday's big chase.

Trainer Mouse Morris had said on Wednesday that the seven-year-old, who had been as short as 14-1 for the race, would not run but his name appeared on the final list of declarations on Thursday morning.

A decision will be made on his participation later on Thursday by Morris, who said: "He's not too bad this [Thursday] morning so I've declared him and will make up my mind at 5pm this evening whether he runs or not."

While there was a surprise name among those who were present, there wereno shocks among the absentees with all the big guns taking their chance.

MM = LEGEND War of attrition all over again, wise move brooksie [smiley:crazy]

Out aparently oh well :)

Will it even be on, getting pretty cold down here in Berks.

Might have a look at the Kempton card instead

MADISON DU BERLAIS[;)] won the race 2 years ago so you know he stays and loves the track, has beat Denman a couple of times before once by 23lengths and Denman is giving him two stone on saturday, bearing in mind also That Madison has had a nice prep run a ...month ago whereas Denman's first run for 200 odd days. Pipes horses in fair form and is his only horse in the race, there are a lot less proven, and less experienced horses at shorter prices.

Value bet of the Jumps season so far (prob on a par with Monet's Garden the other week)
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I really liked Weird Al, and also had a fancy for Big Fella Thanks, however I am willing to let those win now, as at the prices I have to back NEPTUNE COLLONGES. 20/1 is surely each way value. There are question marks over many in the field, do they have the ability to run to marks capable of being competitive in a gold cup, we know for a fact Neptune is (or was) capable of running to about 175. Off 164, and with only 10 8 on his back, if anywhere near his best he has to have a massive chance.  The lay off is obviously a negative, but Nicholls is very capable of readying one after a long absence, and i know it cant be used as a general rule, but horses often run career bests off a long break (taranis, gauvain for example) so at the odds i am more than willing to take the risk.

Resnar, I did also look at his record first time out, and it does appear he strips a lot fitter for his debut outing of the season, however he has run some decent races fto.  2nd to our vic when a 5 year old, and more recently he was holding every chance over in ireland before tipping up 2 out, with exotic dancer in behind. I dont think ED would be 20/1 for this race off this mark.  Also, I think the long term layoff is a bit different to seasonal debut. Often with a fit horse they will have long term targets throughout the season so will have some work left in them, whereas Hales has stated they are wary of the bounce factor, hence going for a big prize first time up.  This leads me to think he will be raring to go.  I obviously may be wrong, and he may not be 100%, but as i say, the odds are appealing enough to take a chance.

Agree with Madison 3/4 on course-only defeat when 4th in this race?

Also Dream Alliance at 50/1 e/w-but 113/1 on bfair.Too good to be true.

Finished 2nd to Denman a couple of years back-won the Welsh National.Good e/w poke.

Madison looked to be going backwards last season - not to be trusted.

geraghty to do 10st to ride burton port, im happy!

Dream Alliance - an unbiased view [;)](as some of you here know I have a small share in him).

His last three completed chases, spread over 3 1/2 years, are 1st in the Perth Festival Handicap, 2nd in the Hennessey, 1st Welsh National.  As you can see from his record he's either brilliant or doesn't complete.  Therefore, I am hoping that even at nine he may still be unexposed to some extent.  If he is on a going day he won't be far away.  Philip Hobbs has always maintained that good ground is fine and on paper his best performance over hurdles was on going the fast side of good at the Festival.  I make him more of a 25/1 shot than 100/1.

On Saturday he will run off his correct weight, admittedly with a claimer on board, and his sequence of runs at Newbury to date is 4th, 3rd, 2nd.  I am hoping for the sequence to continue, although, of course, there are a number of potential improvers in the field.

If our guy doesn't win then lets hope its the mighty Denman, but from a mark of 182 its going to be some ask for him, but wouldn't it be great for racing.

I have looked at the ratings, the weights, the likely going and all manner of things but have instead devised a mathematical sum to reveal the winner of the big one on saturday..




















Carberry+Pandorama=Hennessey

Is Geraghty sawing a leg off to make the weight on BP?

thought 10st 4 was his lowest riding weight!! Anyway, have taken the hint and backed him!![;)]

... plus a bit of wasting