I was a Denman supporter last year (in both the Hennessy and Gold cup), but simply cannot see him winning this again at the w/e. Been mentioned in many previous posts but too many good young improving horses running of 10st for me. I have always thought Weird Al is the most likely winner and Neptune Collonge leaps off the page with a 10lb drop since last seen. Could not discount Pandorama on soft ground and think China Rock could have a squeak too. Denman placed at best this year imo.

Mouse Morris admits he is being tempted to run China Rock due to his light weight.

"The plan is to go at the moment. I just need to talk to the owners and go through the race, but I'd say he'll travel," said Morris.

"He came out of Down Royal with not a bother on him. He ran well there and he'd look well treated in the Hennessy.

"He would have to have an each-way chance, otherwise I'm wasting my time!"

Yeah, defo got an each way shot. Him and Sizing are decent horses, they were miles clear of the rest at Down Royal.

You're welcome mate.

Agreed

Judging from the market Taranis has just gone 5 clear jumping 3 out

Presume that was some bot gone loco? £3800 matched at evens!

He probably would n't want it soft in the middle and he had his photo opportunity at Carlisle where he dead heated with the Paddy Power winner. Now he's got his shot at redemption. You can call him Al.

I give The Tother One a big shout aswell at the prices;

Seems to have been about a while but you could say he's still relatively unexposed over fences with only 6 completed starts to his name, which is only 1 more than Burton Port and 2 more than Weird Al.

With his 5lb claimer on he'll only have 9st 9 on his back which is a far cry from the 11st 12 he's usually used to carrying in these kind of races.

With his 5lb claimer on he'll effectively be running off a mark 151, and he's already got some bits of very good form around that mark.

He came 2nd off a 1lb higher mark to The Package (now rated 15lbs) higher and was a staying on 5th (came from a mile back) in the Will Hill off a 7lb higher mark.

His come back run wasn't bad either only being beaten 4lb by Nacarat of levels who is extremely useful on his day. Also he usually comes on a little bit for his first run back. He's won once at Newbury and would have possibly won his only other start but for taking a crashing fall.

The step up to a strong run 3m2 1/2f will surely suit him and seeing as he's been in the places 11/13 completed starts (exceptions trying to slog round 11st4 in the Welsh National - had hard race 17 days previously, and his staying on 5th at the festival) he is definitely no back number at the 70s on here. The place bet at anything bigger than about 8-1 surely represents massively value.

anyone know why big fella thanks has been sent to ferdy murphy? strange choice in my eyes..

in spite of the ratings etc,noel meade thinks pandorama has the class to win a gold cup.at 9s hes a great ew price..

good logic

Not been around much lately, but now proper racings started, will look in more. 

Pity I didnt post this yesterday, but Taranis is a blinding bet now, 14's with Jorals. To be honest until Nicholls comments reported today, I wouldnt have backed him AP as he is a horse renowned for picking up niggles in his prep for races.  Anyhow, he us totally unexposed over distances of 3m+, has won 2 of the 3 chases he has completed (Both graded races) and the other he was pulled up lame in King George. Goes really well fresh, won on last 3 seasonal re-appearances. Whilst I am not Schofiled biggest fan, he has won on him before, and this is likely to have been the plan for a long time. Even Nicholls Stable tour comments of him were very postive without saying too much directly. Bets away.

The other selection still at a nice price for 1st 4 backers is Carruthers - will be let loose of his weight and on good ground, will have most of these at it after a circuit. Connections have thoght for a while he needs better ground, prob jumps better out of it too.
GL

It's Carruthers for me. Obviously we don't know how much the 2nd season chasers have improved, but this fella seemed to be going the right way last year and is quite well treated on both his Gold Cup run (cut his own throat trying to make all, I know that's his style, but he finished very tired and was dicked on the line by Mon Mone for 3rd, but weighted to finish upsides Denners now and the form is in the book) and his Aintree performance, where I thought he was pretty unlucky not to win. He is only a pound wrong at the weights, wont mind the ground and at 20s+ on here, constitutes a sound e/w proposition.
I also wouldn't put anyone off Burton Port, I think the RSA will turn out to have been a quality affair and would fancy a fit Weapons Amnesty in this seasons GC. If that is so, BP would have to have a good chance.

out to 70s now x

CHINA ROCK, whose odds for the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday ranged from 14-1 with Bet365 to 20-1 with Victor Chandler, has been ruled out of the race.

Trainer Mouse Morris said on Wednesday: "China Rock won't be travelling to Newbury for the Hennessy."

China Rock finished third of seven, beaten four and a quarter lengths behind Kauto Star, in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal last time.

He had won both his previous starts this season, having taken a Grade 2 at Gowran Park on his return before beating the likes of Sizing Europe in a Grade 3 at Punchestown two starts ago

No one fancy Silver By Nature .. trainer seems very bullish and they had the opportunity to go for the Betfair Chase last week when the ground conditions would have been more suitable but have come here instead. Although he'll need a career best, like most here, and he has never won on anthing other than Soft or Heavy, he did look progressive last season and is certain to get the trip .. had  poke ew 25/1

I'm one of the many that would like to see Denman win even though I can't say he's gonna do so, but he does have a lot in his favour. I can't recall seeing a strapping chaser haul big weights so effortlessly since Burrough Hill Lad. I know Desert Orchid did so but he was in a different mould. Denman is tailor-made for the course & distance, runs well fresh and maybe there won't be many that will get their optimal conditions - Madison Du Berlais being a notable exception. His relentless grinding will expose any chinks in the armour of his rivals and he could get them strung out and may only have to fend off a few challenges up the straight. Many will disagree but I don't think the weight is as major a factor to Denman as everybody else does. I remember Burrough Hill Lad was ballasted with a 34lb concession to a quality chaser in Earl's Brig at Haydock some years back, and I was rubbing my eyes in disbelief two from home when he loomed. He didn't make it but he shook off the burden, and that's what I think Denman could do too. Carruthers & Niche Market harrying could affect Denman's  rhythm but I think Carruthers (big engine, and another that looks built for a slog like this) will be forced into mistakes so maybe Niche Market could prove to be a surprising threat. Some of the relative novices mightn't know what's hit them when Denman steps on the gas at halfway and could be pressurised into blunders - Diamond Harry (same type as Carruthers) being the obvious one for me. I think there's a great bunch of promising chasers about now, and their connections may not be too keen to leave their seasons behind, by bottoming them, trying to reel in Denman in what's sure to be a searching contest. That's why I think an exposed chaser in Niche Market (8lb out the handicap with Ian Popham taking off 5lb) with conditions to suit will run well at huge odds. If by some miracle they don't go the pace I'm expecting then Barber Shop is well treated, but has traded at massive prices, so maybe he ain't running. Nevertheless, for a supposed non-stayer, he's ran well over this trip before and he's one I'll be backing if he makes the line-up. I think the way the race is likely to be run will 'hurt' a handful of undoubtedly well-handicapped & hugely promising chasers and I hope Niche Market races prominently as he'll be trading much shorter after the cross-fence.

I am increasingly sweet on the chance of Taranis, occasionally makes the odd mistake but otherwise many more +ves than -ves.

Stayed 3m2f at Cheltenham last year, acts well on both soft and good ground, course winner, won after big break, top trainer, won grade 1 chases.

big e/w punt for me