pmt

My friend has two horses at present and we are having a lot of fun planning their programme for the season. Botox won the grade 2 hurdle at Weatherby in November and Nassalam won the Welsh Grand national trial on December 9th. He goes for the Chepstow marathon on the 27th and will carry a 4lb penalty for winning the trial but goes up 8lbs in future.His rider Caoilin Quinn has won 3 out of 4 rides for us now and will claim 3lbs again. He was adamant that he will stay the trip. He loves heavy ground so we be considering the Haydock Grand national trial in February after this. He will be entered for the Grand National but needs the ground to be soft. He has to go left handed so places like Punchestown, Fairyhouse, Sandown and Ascot are out.

Botox Has runs in the Long walk hurdle on Dec 23rd. He has won two Grade 2 hurdles and a Grade 3 and gets his first run in a grade 1. He didn't perform to his best at Weatherby as he found the going too soft and jumped poorly for him. He has to beat all the top English 3 mile hurdlers at ascot but he already gave 4lbs to the 159 rated Dashel Drasher and 155 rated Thyme Hill .The fav West Balboa is rated 143  but has been winning handicaps, champ is 11 years old like paisley park and they are both rated 157.

botox has must be worth his place in the long Walk and is 10/1 or more ante post.He is 66/1 for the World Hurdle but would have to win this to think about an entry. Caoilin Quinn will ride but cannot claim his 3lbs (didnt stop him  at Weatherby )

Since my blog on 16th november , both Dunraven Storm and Clerk's Choice were well beaten at Haydock. The 150 and 162 ratings look even worse now but guess what? the handicapper cannot be wrong so Dunraven is still on 150 and Clerks is dropped only 3 lbs to 159. Toubab is up to 144 for his win in a class 1 Haydock novice easily beating two 125 horses.It looks like the Supreme will have a large number of 145+ horses this year even without Cue Card who was a standout 12/1 nrnb for the Champion Hurdle. Clerk's Choice is of course no longer a novice and will now be difficult to place. he could end up at Kempton on boxing day or at Wincanton for the Kingwell in February.

Meanwhile Recession Proof came out and won well over 2 and a half miles on heavy ground at Lingfield. he gave 7lbs to latin America who was 16l adrift and his main victim the dual bumper winner Brackloon High has been given a rating of 131 after going down by a length.The conditions at lingfield would have suited him more than Recession Proof and it was a relief that the handicappe r left RP on 134. He goes for the Ladbroke next an dit seems safe to assume he will like the faster pace and better ground he should get there. he travels well and jumps quick and low wasting little time in the air.20/1 looks a good each way price getting 6lbs from the favourite Aegean Dawn and 7lbs from the improving Tocca Ferro.

There was a time  when the Supreme Novice winner would be rated in the 140/150 range but not this year. last year menorah (151) GMOOH (150) general Miller (146) were responsibly handicapped and only Menorah has so far managed to run to his rating. This year we already have Dunraven Storm on 150 and that is after being beaten 8l by a novice !! Of course Cue Card is not just a novice but THE talking horse of the s eason but can he really be worth a rating of 160+ already afte rtwo wins in novices. The Sharp novices he won usually throws up a 135/140 horse but the first two are now rated a stone higher. Something simlar happened to Clerk's Choice a facile winner in the 4yo hurdle at the Cheltenham October meeting. he was raised 31 lbs to 162 for beating some out of form rivals. The way the handicapper is reacting to novice form means it will be very difficult for this season's novices to win the big handicaps.