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recession proof

recession proof

02 Dec 10 17:14
Since my blog on 16th november , both Dunraven Storm and Clerk's Choice were well beaten at Haydock. The 150 and 162 ratings look even worse now but guess what? the handicapper cannot be wrong so Dunraven is still on 150 and Clerks is dropped only 3 lbs to 159. Toubab is up to 144 for his win in a class 1 Haydock novice easily beating two 125 horses.It looks like the Supreme will have a large number of 145+ horses this year even without Cue Card who was a standout 12/1 nrnb for the Champion Hurdle. Clerk's Choice is of course no longer a novice and will now be difficult to place. he could end up at Kempton on boxing day or at Wincanton for the Kingwell in February.

Meanwhile Recession Proof came out and won well over 2 and a half miles on heavy ground at Lingfield. he gave 7lbs to latin America who was 16l adrift and his main victim the dual bumper winner Brackloon High has been given a rating of 131 after going down by a length.The conditions at lingfield would have suited him more than Recession Proof and it was a relief that the handicappe r left RP on 134. He goes for the Ladbroke next an dit seems safe to assume he will like the faster pace and better ground he should get there. he travels well and jumps quick and low wasting little time in the air.20/1 looks a good each way price getting 6lbs from the favourite Aegean Dawn and 7lbs from the improving Tocca Ferro.
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novice hurdle handicapping

16 Nov 10 15:42
There was a time  when the Supreme Novice winner would be rated in the 140/150 range but not this year. last year menorah (151) GMOOH (150) general Miller (146) were responsibly handicapped and only Menorah has so far managed to run to his rating. This year we already have Dunraven Storm on 150 and that is after being beaten 8l by a novice !! Of course Cue Card is not just a novice but THE talking horse of the s eason but can he really be worth a rating of 160+ already afte rtwo wins in novices. The Sharp novices he won usually throws up a 135/140 horse but the first two are now rated a stone higher. Something simlar happened to Clerk's Choice a facile winner in the 4yo hurdle at the Cheltenham October meeting. he was raised 31 lbs to 162 for beating some out of form rivals. The way the handicapper is reacting to novice form means it will be very difficult for this season's novices to win the big handicaps.
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