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Great shame Beethoven had a setback he probably would have won today ;)
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Yes probably a similar setback to Steinbeck ... shame really as the Dewhurst p1ssed on the Racing Post Trophy in todays race yet the 2 best Dewhurst horses were missing, coincidentally both from Ballydoyle.
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sorry i meant 'setback'
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I think the key is not to get sucked into putting too much on anti post wait for the day , the winner Makfi was 33-1 in the morning of the race and drifted out to 89-1. Most of the others apart from the 1st two in the betting were available at double figure odds, so no need to back anti post.
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Don't think Ballydoyle have a horse that would have won today. Winner was different class from the Dewhurst horses.
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SNA was disappointing no doubt. All the Ballydoyle horses looked like they needed it (they did in 2009 and 2008 too) and they will all come forward big time. The Guineas is a race that may come too early for them these days, but SNA was still expected to win so it may be best to be sceptical about him from now on. His relatives Ballingarry & Aristotle did not fulfil 2yo potential and maybe he'll be the same. Fencing Master looked big beforehand and will get the Derby trip on pedigree, plus these Oratorios could improve as they go like he did. I thought he put in a better run than SNA and could end up their number one for Epsom if he works well beforehand.
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Chuck some blinkers on Fencing Master: 1m2f, small field, bang out in front imo.
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is it me or o brien 3 yrs old crop is not exepcional
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Based on what? You haven't seen this fella run yet, nor Cape Blanco and Jan Vermeer.
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the very poor weather in the early part of 2010 has been rolled out as a reason why the Coolmore / O'brien team arnt flying yet.
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When you look at how Mastercraftsman and Rip van Winkle ran last year and what they went on to do, it's far too early to dismiss them. Wait until after the Irish Guineas/Derby/St James's Palace and then judge the crop. My bet is they are starting to dominate again by July (particularly as there are potentially top-class ones like Cape Blanco, Steinbeck and Jan Vermeer waiting in the wings)..
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I'd still bet they have more Group 1 3.y.o winners than anyone else this year.
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Well the form of the low drawn Dewhurst horses keeps getting franked by the day.
4 subsequent G3 winners plus a 2nd in the GNS. |
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kirk st. moritz, O'Brien has confirmed that JanVermeer remains in the Derby picture as does fencing master who could first contest the Irish 2000gns,while Steinbeck has 'more to do'if he is to start off his campaign in the same race a week on Sat'............is he really good enough?or is he pure hype? results speak volumes.Have a look at page2 of todays RP.
FRAGILE NOT SOUND. |
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Well you were wrong about St Nick over a mile maybe you will be right about Steinbeck being hyped also over a mile (though the Dewhurst form is standing up way better than the Racing Post Trophy). O'Brien is making excuses again off the back of him apparently working brilliantly only a week ago. Odds are he is full of sh1t.
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yes Kirk I would agree on that one (about O'Brien). So far he is having a very quiet season.
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Lads only 2-1 Steinbeck, don't seem keen on Fencing Master but he interests me. He ran a blinder in the Dewhurst and the Guineas and looked for all the world as if he would need the run there. I'm thinking he'll also go for the Derby after Saturday like his dad did and his current odds for Epsom on here are ludicrous if that's the plan. I reckon Steinbeck will need the run and is being geared more towards the St Jamess Palace and I wouldn't rule out Fencing Master taking a step up and winning with Jan Vermeer close up and booking his Derby place.
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Clear now never would have won the Guineas
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Not clear at all imo. Was given an easy ride today to finish 4th. Canford Cliffs has come on a ton from the Guineas. He was my idea of the Guineas winner on this thread if he stayed and in Steinbecks absence. Imo Steinbeck travelled easy today but blew up at the close.
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It goes to show how often some take time to come to themselves ... I would take Canford to turn over Makti at this stage. Also Steinbeck really impressed me there and without a 'setback' who knows he certainly cruised for much of todays race ran an excellent race.
kirk st. moritz Joined: 04 Feb 07 Replies: 524 11 Feb 10 22:00 Consider a scenario where R Hughes is right and Canford stays a mile. If SNA did not have the pace against the top milers he will be meeeting for the first time then he is looking for a Derby win where he is not guaranteed to get the trip. In the meantime Canford Cliffs wins the English Guineas and is odds on for the Irish Guineas, beats Steinbeck and Ballydoyle are looking for a Derby win with a horse out of the Guineas who may not stay as well as others, say Workforce and the end result is no Ballydoyle Classic winners. I think they will want a guaranteed miler to be in the Guineas there on his own merits as well as SNA as just having one representative with a realistic chance of winning out of a stable so large and coming away with a doubtful Derby stayer and the 2nd fav for the Irish Guineas would not be worth the risk. kirk st. moritz Joined: 04 Feb 07 Replies: 524 11 Feb 10 21:52 If SNA fails to perform on the day or is not good enough they would be foolish to leave an English Classic at Canford Cliffs mercy. kirk st. moritz Joined: 04 Feb 07 Replies: 524 11 Feb 10 21:51 Why would Steinbeck not run at HQ? It is normal for the stable to run their best milers in both Guineas. Prima Donna Joined: 29 Apr 09 Replies: 1393 11 Feb 10 21:20 Kirk,Your silence is deafening,all this about Steinbeck you cant see the wood for the trees!Still there's always Canford Cliffs! |
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Steinbeck has run a very similar race 1st up as rvw and mastercraftsman did last yr. I expect him to be in the shake up in the st james and other top grp1s throughout summer. but lets not take anything away from cc. lived up to the hype and more today.
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RVW and Mastercraftsman were Group 1 winners at 2. Steinbeck has never even been placed in a top class race.
Apart from CC the runners in today's Irish Guineas are moderate. Hannon's horse slaughtered them with breaking sweat. |
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Kirk,Yes you were right about CC,I was at the Curragh today,and after speaking to Hannon JR,I felt that he was in with a very good chance,he is imo a improving horse,better than I thought he would be.
As for Steinbeck as you know i've never thought much of him and will remain unchanged in my view remember what I said about him being a classic Ballydoyle hype horse to lay,I felt that at no time in the race was he ever going well JM got to work him from way out with no real response,I was with his connections before the race they were not confident,but hopeful of a good run,imo he got 4th because he was going past beaten horses at one pace.Ballydoyle still not firing them in yet. I would say looking to the season SNA holds more promise than Steinbeck ever will,well thats my take on it anyway.Hope you backed him (CC) that is. |
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All it is proving is how trainers are very poor at getting their horses to peak for the English Guineas. You must have watched a different race to me with Steinbeck, unlike the Dewhurst, the best Guineas trial, where he led early and faded late today he was dropped out the back as if a none trier and travelled easy nonetheless then coming late but too late AND blew up as you would expect. Ran a brilliant race didnt have the benefit of a Greenham and Guineas under his belt like Canford who remember was found wanting in both of those.
Showing O'Brien to be someone who makes the wrong decisions and gets them fully wound up on the course. |
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Oh and by the way, there is little doubt Steinbeck IS there best miler after today.
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and should have been in the Guineas against an off-peak Canford and co. instead of a Montjeu.
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their*
...and he missed 4 weeks work in March so they couldn't run him. |
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Maybe best of a bad bunch of Ballydoyle 3 year olds. 4th now in the Dewhurst and Irish Guineas - I'd say that'a bout his level. Not to say he won't win a nice race this year - but only if it's weakly contested i.e no CC, Paco Boy, Mafki etc.
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So the Greenham was about Canford Cliffs level using the same logic ffs?
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Cc was an excellent winner of the Coventry Stakes. Returned to form today. What racecourse form is Steinbeck's lofty reputation based on?
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You need to give up antepost if that is how you see things.
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Come October we'll probably still be reading about Steinbeck's latest "eyecatching" 4th place.
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The horse wasnt ridden to win the race today tbh surprised he got 4th.
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Anyway good luck following Steinbeck this year kirk.
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I didnt back him today as I didnt think he would be ready and expected him to blow up ... nothing surprised me about the race.
Good luck with your antepost logic this season. |
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Prima Donna .. I took St Nick recenlty for the Derby there doesnt look a lot in opposition this season over a trip he is more likely to excel at on going he will prefer and even APOB can get him ready by June. You must fancy him to go on for a Derby and then Arc victory?
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Same people slating Steinbeck here are the same ones who were slating RIP last year imo. He was all hype, and kept having problems, and he didnt turn out too bad...
Todays run was clearly nothing more than a racecourse gallop. |
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Kirk,I do like SNA for the Derby (Epsom) but TBH he does need to improve from NMKT,but I think he will, I agree with you about the trip and the opposition, AP O'Brien they do seem slow to come to hand so far,I doubt Steinbeck will really be any good,regardless of what some think,he will have to improve a hell of a lot to win at top level imo,it will be hard as I keep saying not a sound horse,but we will see,good luck with your bets Kirk for Epsom.BTW what do you think of Henry Cecil's colt Bullet Train?
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I am thinking of taking him in my team .. real dark horse and as a big fan of Timepiece who was going well in gallops with him. Massive fan of HRAC and see him as the biggest danger to SNA.
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Kirk,Like you I reckon B.Train will be a massive danger to SNA Henry's horses are running well .........unlike the O'Brien ones.I like him a lot.
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