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Zilzal1, on another post I have said I like a couple in the race, BUT all dependant of a run. SNA will I feel win if he runs, but I also like ARCANO and Awzaan. Both according to the forum experts unlikely to stay. But at this early stage my few pence will be on these two. until SNA confirmed for race that is.
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Tirol, fair play, but i have a feeling that the race that Arcano won was all wrong and will be basing my punts around that in both the 1000 and 2000, if she gets the green light, and on fast ground, im fairly confident that Tabassam will win the 1000,
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zilzal1, I think it would be unwise to write off the Prix Morny form. It's true that Richard Hannon believes that Canford Cliffs did not run to his best in the Morny, but that is just his opinion, and Arcano can't be bad to have beaten the champion two-year-old filly Special Duty, who went on to win the Cheveley Park so impressively.
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Was wondering if it was the travelling ( to France ) that effected CC, it is quite often used as a reason for a horses poor performance ?
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James, im not writing it off totally, its the risk reward scenario-if the form is right then the current status where Special Duty is a shortish price and Arcano is right up with the market is true then you have 7/2 and 10-1 shots respectively.
Im taking a view with maybe a higher risk , but with more reward as my fancies would be 10-1 and 25-1 |
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Special Duty's price for the 1000 is based on her Cheveley Park win, not her Morny form, though I wouldn't rule out Tabassum if she returns to her Oh So Sharp Stakes form (and if she gets the mile, which is a slight question mark following her Rockfel performance). The 2000 is a much more open race (unless and until SNA is declared an intended runner) and so I take your point about the risk/reward.
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Special Duty does have a favourites chance, i just felt that in the Rockfel(as in the Dewhurst) the rail was not the place to be, and as Hills had her in front long enough on ground that imo, was slower than ideal for her. The Oh So Sharp stakes was boosted by the runner up as well.
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Yes, I agree with all those points, but I was still slightly disappointed that Tabassum appeared to tire inside the final furlong in the Rockfel. Her dam Tomoohat was bred to get a mile but showed loads of pace when winning a 6f maiden on her sole start at two, and she didn't get home over a mile on her only subsequent start a year later (started slowly, held up, pulled hard). On breeding Tabassum (by Nayef) should certainly get the mile, but she was free to post (due to grenness?) and raced quite keenly in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. She tried to make all the running in the Rockfel but appeared to be outstayed by the winner and runner-up. Her keen style of racing does not fill me with confidence that she will get the mile, but she can certainly be given another chance if she can learn to race less keenly.
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on my figs, Tabassum ran a 6lbs quicker time when beaten in the Rockfel compared to the Oh So Sharp. Maybe she was just beaten by better horses?
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You a Special Duty fan pedro?
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And does what you sya above mean you like the Channon thing?
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Guys I see Canford Cliffs been nibbled at on Betfair and some firms have him as short as 17/2 2nd fav now. Do you think this is after Richard Hannon appearing quite bullish about how Canford Cliffs has progressed/trained on throughout the Winter, see the item here
http://interactiveracecard.bluesq.com/news/4217-cliffs-pencilled-in-for-greenham GavT |
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yes, ben, top of the fillies tree with me. Not sure about the trip as plenty of speed, but huge respect for the trainer.
(Thought Lady Of The Desert nowhere near her Lowther form at Newmarket) Don't have Spec Duty well clear of her division though, and possible that a few will improve past her despite being lightly raced as well. Guess would have to be impressed with Music Show, only defeat when no chance with the draw, wouldn't put anyyone off |
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Im sure Lady Of the Desert is better than her Newmarket run, i just don't rate the trainer as a Classic winner handler that highly
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Cheers for the thoughts Pedro, good luck.
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Fillies are funny creatures and getting them to the race is like backing a winner in itself.
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True but certain trainers are better than others
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Did,nt Meehan, have the 2nd in the 2000 and the 3rd in the 1000G last year ?
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Absolutely, and in Criquette Head-Marek she is in safe hands. Same goes for the 2000 in my opinion. Some trainers just dont seem capable of getting one 100% for a group race first time out. I have reservations about B.Meehan and Gosden always.
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Couldnt be in better hands unless it was HRAC imo.
Learned my lesson with Channon ... Flashy Wings ridden up with the pace all of her races coming through with a turn of foot that didnt last to win .. so what happens along comes the Guineas and he puts Spencer up who drops her out the back on softish ground which is fantastic tactics for a Zafonic you couldnt make it up. zilzal1 04 Feb 23:58 Im sure Lady Of the Desert is better than her Newmarket run, i just don't rate the trainer as a Classic winner handler that highly |
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Lads now 2-1 SNA for the Guineas, Steinbeck on 10s. For those that follow the path of the magic sign that is about as conclusive a statement on the current set of affairs at Ballydoyle as you can get, isn't it? Imo, they will run a bunch (SNA, Steinbeck, Fencing Master, Cape Blanco) to see where they all fit and Steinbeck looks one for the St James's Palace if he comes good. Like one or two on here, I also very much like Cape Blanco- he has a great 2yo profile and he could turn out to be the second best this term..
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Yes because Laddies are ALWAYS right where Ballydoyle is concerned. ;)
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Agree, think he is aimed at the race, I said earlier in the thread I thought they got that wrong ;)
Now they have added him I would assume they have changed their view whether that be based on new information/not. Canford Cliffs will be his biggest danger if he stays and Steinbeck imo if he improves as much out of the Dewhurst as you might expect. |
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The money for Jan Vermeer might even suggest he wont be their Derby no. 1 with a Guineas prep preferred.
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Laddies, just got fed up with people phoning up to get a price on SNA for guineas, simple as that.True they dont want to be against him should he turn up. If they knew for sure it was his intended race, would they not push the others out a point or to to try to get them?
after all SNA at 2-1 takes a big chunk out of the book. |
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They are going shortest because they think he will win .. simple as. Before they didnt think he would run but probably information has come to light to change that.
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Kirk, I have no doubt they think he will win. If they have information saying he is targeted at the race, why dont they get money in the book by offering slightly bigger odds on some of the other horses.
After all its about oppinions, why not lay 12-1 steinbeck or go longer on some of the others? |
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There is always the chance he could still miss it.
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true. but there has hardly been a move for SNA even at 4-1 and 7-2 on betfair, he has only attracted 25k at those prices hardly a forune. my guess is the bookies havnt taken a been for him either.
sure they want him to run and win, assuming they take good money for the others and dont see a real gamble develope on SNA. A real gamble would see him start 7/4 or shorter on guinease day without the benifit of a run prior to the guineas. |
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At those prices there is no attraction medium to long range antepost on the flat but you will see him heavily backed come the week/day when they know he gets there fit and well imo.
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Given that most posters seem to think Laddies are the magic sign and this is the steinbeck thread. Are none of you a little concerned that they are giving shorter prices than there rival bookmakers on 3 of the 5 principals whilst steinbeck and cape blanco are at general market odds.
Two of them who are particularly different are SNA 2-1 compared to 3-1 and Beethoven 20's compared to 33's widely available. |
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I very much doubt whether any new 'information' has come to light. The horses are probably just cantering at this stage, so no plans will be made for some time yet. Ballydoyle always said that SNA would be aimed at the Guineas and all the other top races.
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allways get these supposed key market moves for the classics.
Basically books trying to stimulate a bit of interest in markets that have died a death over the winter with all the focus on Cheltenham. Doubt any of the classic fancied horses have even come off the bridle yet. Witness the racecourse gallops Obrien gives his "stars" @ the end of March just a steady canter round. Lets face it high st books probably wont have taken a bean for Canford over the winter but trim from 12s to 8s with a positive spin & you then pull in the mugs who didnt want to take 12s the day previously but are quite happy to jump in @ 8s on the back of a "supposed" market move. |
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Obviously the horses havent done much, however there may have been an indication re an initial training method for a horse which may say Guineas prep to them. A stables Guineas and Derby horses will be given different programmes starting at different times and though it may be an early stage of a horses preparation it is the intent that is important in his case.
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... by the way they never specifically said SNA would be aimed at the Guineas ... Freudian slip there imo ;)
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kirk,You don't know them well then do you!
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?
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Tabor said after the Doncaster win that he never had concidered SNA as a guineas horse.
Ofcourse that could have changed but I doubt. |
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Straight after the Racing Post Trophy Aidan O'Brien confirmed that the Guineas would be on SNA's agenda: "He's one of those horses who is bred to stay, but who has speed. We'll be looking at the Guineas and all the Classics." He didn't say that the horse would be 'aimed' at the Guineas, it's true, but then again he rarely says that any horse is being aimed at any specific race until much closer to the date of the race. On the following Monday Aidan said: "He came out of Saturday's race well and he is fine. He wouldn't have any problem with the Guineas trip depending on what his owners want to do. He is a very classy horse as he showed at Doncaster and all the options will be open to him next year. When the spring comes we will have the Classics in mind for the better horses and that is when the decisions will be made." I get the impression from those comments that Aidan is keen to run SNA in the Guineas, but the final say will belong to the owners.
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As I say Freudian slip.
jamesp 06 Feb 12:42 I very much doubt whether any new 'information' has come to light. The horses are probably just cantering at this stage, so no plans will be made for some time yet. Ballydoyle always said that SNA would be aimed at the Guineas and all the other top races. |